How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Holien]

12 minutes ago, chrisl said:

The Bosporus and Dardanelles are closed to warships weren't already based in the BS before the war, so essentially no naval vessels in or out.  In principle the US could send an unarmed civilian contractor vessel to recover it.

My comments were aimed at aircraft not surface ships. I guess it depends on where the drone was launched and how far any aircraft response team could get there.

[Tenses]

5 minutes ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:

The huge Iranian transport with ammo would be better

Imagine feeding them with their own medicine.

"This bomb just fell off our jet. Really, happens all the time."

[Eddy]

5 minutes ago, Holien said:

I guess it depends on where the drone was launched

I believe they are launched from Sicily. At least whenever I've looked on Flight Radar that's where they came from. Haven't checked in months though

[chrisl]

4 minutes ago, Holien said:

My comments were aimed at aircraft not surface ships. I guess it depends on where the drone was launched and how far any aircraft response team could get there.

Short of shooting them down, what's an aircraft response team going to do?  An MQ-9 costs about $30M - not worth getting into a direct shooting match over.  Better to have something Russian quietly disappear.

[Maciej Zwolinski]

41 minutes ago, billbindc said:

Ockham's razor...they are really worried about upcoming Ukrainian moves and they think it's worth taking that kind of risk to limit US ISR to some degree. 

There is also Bonaparte's razor" Never attribute to malice what can be adequately explained by stupidity". Russian pilot could have been trying to disrupt the flight of the drone by his crazy Ivan maneuvres but did not pull out on time. As the common wisdom indicates, not pulling out on time has very serious consequences.

[Chibot Mk IX]

On 3/11/2023 at 4:53 AM, Haiduk said:

UKR soldiers hide in the basement when Russian tank works at their building. 

Buildings in CM should have underground levels

 

We used to have this command back in CMBB 

Sewer movement

 

 

 

[chrisl]

13 minutes ago, Tenses said:

Imagine feeding them with their own medicine.

"This bomb just fell off our jet. Really, happens all the time."

So sorry that it landed on your bridge...

[Maciej Zwolinski]

5 minutes ago, Eddy said:

I believe they are launched from Sicily.

I imagined Shoigu getting a serious visit from some mafiosi unhappy about the fate of their drone. "Mr Shoigu, you have a nice tank army there....it would be a pity if it burned down"

[Battlefront.com]

44 minutes ago, billbindc said:

It's an interesting event on numerous levels. Russia certainly does not want to provoke greater conventional intervention by the US/EU. Knocking down drones well into international waters (I have tracked these drones and they typically do figure eights in the middle of the Black Sea) has every chance of making that happen. It also weakens the argument they must have been happy to hear from DeSantis that the war is a "territorial issue" when Moscow is tangling with US assets well out of either national space. 

The problem is that the same pro-Russian and/or isolationist wings of either party has used potential military conflict with Russia as a reason to not have even basic national security policies that put "America First".  Their argument, as with the same mindset prior to WW2, was "don't do anything to potentially anger the bully.  Don't look at him, don't speak unless spoken to, and by God if he asks for your lunch money you just give it to him.  Suffer the wedgies as well, because it could be much worse".

Which means the extremes of both parties have, for maybe once in a generation, made a point that is logically consistent; don't do anything to support Ukraine because it might anger Russia and that might get Russia to do something that starts WW3".  It's a logical and consistent argument built on no historically relevant foundation, but it exists anyway.

44 minutes ago, billbindc said:

Ockham's razor...they are really worried about upcoming Ukrainian moves and they think it's worth taking that kind of risk to limit US ISR to some degree. 

It does seem like Russia has figured out it's in for a world hurt soon if it doesn't manage to do something to change the equation.  Getting the US to fight amongst itself about supporting Ukraine over fears of WW3 is not all that bad a move to resort to for a country with only bad moves left to play.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

6 minutes ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:

There is also Bonaparte's razor" Never attribute to malice what can be adequately explained by stupidity". Russian pilot could have been trying to disrupt the flight of the drone by his crazy Ivan maneuvres but did not pull out on time. As the common wisdom indicates, not pulling out on time has very serious consequences.

Oh, for sure that can't be ruled out.  And so far the US language is, in fact, implying that is what happened.  However, based on the little info we have I they meant to knock it out of the air using some means of "plausible deniability" vs. shooting it down with cannon or missile fire.  If true, then this was a carefully calculated move from Putin on down.

Steve

[Maciej Zwolinski]

6 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Oh, for sure that can't be ruled out.  And so far the US language is, in fact, implying that is what happened.  However, based on the little info we have I they meant to knock it out of the air using some means of "plausible deniability" vs. shooting it down with cannon or missile fire.  If true, then this was a carefully calculated move from Putin on down.

Steve

Actually, in the place of the US I would think about suing Russians for the 30 mio in damages. Russians do not consider themselves at war and the US would not a belligerent anyway, so the loss should be actionable pursuant to the general rules of civil liability. Surely there must be an international convention regulating flight accidents on the high seas.

[Seminole]

17 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Oh, for sure that can't be ruled out.  And so far the US language is, in fact, implying that is what happened.  However, based on the little info we have I they meant to knock it out of the air using some means of "plausible deniability" vs. shooting it down with cannon or missile fire.  If true, then this was a carefully calculated move from Putin on down.

Steve

After the fuel dump trick didn't do anything I imagine the Su-27 sidling up next to the drone like a Spitfire chasing a V-1, putting the missile rail on his wing tip into the prop on the back, and thus killing the bird.

The fuel thing reminded me of this story:

After returning from a Vietnam combat hop, I was briefing my plane captain on the reasons why Sunglass 691 had two holes in the engine compartment and what they contributed to the flight characteristics of the Skyhawk, when the "Bonnie Dick" (CVA-31 USS Bon Homme Richard) began a hard turn to starboard and we still hadn't completed landing the air wing. As I grabbed onto the boarding ladder to steady myself on the now 15 degree slope of the deck, a "Whale" (A-3 tanker) went roaring close overhead in a wave off. It was "The Red Baron" (Cdr. John Wunche) making a wave off after the duty Russian trawler crossed our path. He continued on line up, at about 100' altitude and just before arriving overhead of the trawler turned on all the fuel dumps the A-3 had for its impressive fuel load. As he roared over the trawler, the JP-4 was glistening off the whole trawler and several of their crewmen thought it prudent do depart the boat via a swan dive. Needless to say, the trawler left us alone for over a week before they tried to disrupt another landing sequence!

[Tenses]

8 minutes ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:

Actually, in the place of the US I would think about suing Russians for the 30 mio in damages. Russians do not consider themselves at war and the US would not a belligerent anyway, so the loss should be actionable pursuant to the general rules of civil liability. Surely there must be an international convention regulating flight accidents on the high seas.

They already responded that their jet did not make contact with the drone.  You could now push all the video evidence you have down their throats, they would just ignore it.

[kevinkin]

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11857317/Russia-sends-WOMEN-prisoners-Ukraine-war-zone-time.html

A natural progression toward a zombie army. And armed with museum specimens:

Heavy losses on the battlefields has also forced Putin to desperately empty Russian museums of obsolete tanks to repurpose them for his flailing war effort. Footage shows ageing Soviet-era T-62s being 'modernised' in a round-the-clock factory in Chita, Siberia. The drive to retrofit the decades-old tanks highlights the desperation of Putin's military machine - while Ukraine is being supplied with the most modern Western tanks. Some of the tanks being revamped at the 103rd Plant may be 60 years old, dating from the time Nikita Khrushchev and Leonid Brezhnev were ruling the USSR. 'It is sad that the number of exhibits of military museums will be reduced,' said one report.

The UK's Ministry of Defence today said that Russian ammunition shortages have 'worsened to the extent that extremely punitive shell-rationing is in force on many parts of the front'. This has almost certainly been a key reason why no Russian formation has recently been able to generate operationally significant offensive action,' the MoD said in its latest intelligence briefing.

[Maciej Zwolinski]

5 minutes ago, Tenses said:

They already responded that their jet did not make contact with the drone.  You could now push all the video evidence you have down their throats, they would just ignore it.

Sure. But if they did that in a court or before an arbitration panel, they would get a default judgement against them which could be enforced against various Russian assets worldwide. Obviously, for trolling purposes mostly.

[DesertFox]

41 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

 If true, then this was a carefully calculated move from Putin on down.

Steve

It sure was. There is a pretty famous quote from the flic "Hunt for Red October" which perfectly fits here:

Rear Admiral Josh Painter: What's his plan?

Jack Ryan: His plan?

Painter: Russians don't take a dump, son, without a plan. And senior captains don't start something this dangerous without having thought the matter through.

Edited March 14, 2023 by DesertFox

[Haiduk]

Reportedly Russia has begun search&resque mission in the area of US drone crash. As if they already recovered some fragments.

Edited March 14, 2023 by Haiduk

[DesertFox]

Mick Ryan on momentum on the eastern front

 

 

[JonS]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

a carefully calculated move from Putin on down.

Lol - facts not in evidence, your honour. There is almost nothing about the last 12-18 months that suggest 'calculated move'.

[Beleg85]

Sorry if video was posted here before, but may be worth to check it:

 

[DesertFox]

Competence level of RU hasn´t changed...

 

 

[Haiduk]

4 hours ago, Grigb said:

So, my opinion, UKR frontline non-elite units are now failing to hold Wagnerites for a variety of reasons (lack of mortars, night-fighting equipment, Wagnerites improved tactics), but primarily because they do not receive adequately trained replacements due to the critical failure of the UKR training system (which was not reformed from RU practices).

"Kupol" is from 46th air-assault brigade. Also ostensibly elite. But brigade after heavy Kherson operation almost without rest and replenishing was moved to Bakhumt. Then it has short rest, probably it got many new personnel, which should have more training already in brigade, but suddenly sh...t happened in Soledar (yes, there soldiers abandoned own positions and caused collapse of defense), and one of battalion of 46th was thrown again in desperate counter-attack to deblocade units, encircled in the town (and likely this was also politically motivated step). They surprised Wagners, so partially could acomplished own task, but themselves were engaged by Wagner units and suffeerd many losses. As I wrote - exactly in Soledar we had 1:1 losses ratio.

Problem of training always was big for us. Not all training center are so bad. But 169th "Desna" training center, probably largest Ground Forces training center was under heavy criticism as far as since ATO times. All attempts to rise their level failed. Even new chiefs, who showed own profesinalism on battlefield, being appointed to this center could do almost nothing, smashing at the wall of inertion, indifference, work for good reports for higher ciefs not for efefctive results amomg officers and MoD, who very slowly adopt methodics to new reality. Also weird fact - in the summer Russians hit "Desna" center with two ballistic missiles - was lost by killed or wounded almost all course of arty crews for Western howitzers. SBU detained officer of this center in the rank of colonel who reported to Russians that all graduates will gather in one barrack after receiving of certificates and celebration (this was also violation of General Staff order - do not deploy in one place more than 30-35 men, but all sides have ignored this order)

UKR civil volunteer Roman Donik since ATO time have been trying to enchance training system. He organized parallel course of DSHKM-TK gunners, marxmen and snipers, using "Desna" facility. Now he with full support of High Command expands intensive courses of riflemen and squad leaders. Their rifleman course lasts two weeks, but it showed many levels highter effectiveness, than formal "Desna" training. But alas, this course now can train only 80 riflemen in two weeks. And most capable of them, who developed own leadership qualities get offers to pass course of squad leaders. And most capable graduates of squad leaders course get offer to pass course of instructors for riflemen courses. 

Enough good training center has National Guard, and now they intensively train "Offensive Guard" - "rebranded" existing Natinal Guards combat units, which probably got the "shtat", close to air-asault brigades. Most of their 28 000 "volunteers applications" indeed applications of current servicemen of theese units and servecemen of other force structures, who want to be transferred to these brigades. But other enlisted - former civilians now under three-month course of training as reserve of these brigades.   

Now we have "under rifle" million or more people. Russian pressure even with "mobiks" and "zeks" doesn't give us much time for quality training. We actually forced to answer "meat" on "meat" untill or strike fist under training in NATO countries and on more deep training in Ukriane. To this time RUMINT says about approx ten different completely new brigades (not including "Offensive Guard"). For example 47th mech.brigade conducted quality selection of personnel and under training already more that 6 months, in parallel way defending Belarusian border.

[Battlefront.com]

31 minutes ago, JonS said:

Lol - facts not in evidence, your honour. There is almost nothing about the last 12-18 months that suggest 'calculated move'.

But that's just it... it appears that early in the war the usual Russian harassment activities were ratcheted back.  Presumably this was ordered by Putin to avoid his numbnuts military from accidentally giving NATO a reason to widen the war.  If not directly, then by enthusiastically providing something to Ukraine that Putin rather have the West continue hem and haw over.  So this incident was (almost) totally out of character since early in the war.

The Russians say they had a threat coming in and they went up to investigate, causing the US drone pilot to do something dumb that resulted in the AQ-9 falling into the sea.  Anybody believe that?  I certainly don't.

The best thing to do is take a Russian statement and change all the wording to be the opposite.  If you do that, the Russians knew it was an AQ-9, knew it wasn't headed towards Russian airspace, went to intercept it because it was an AQ-9, then engaged in in a way that caused it to crash.

These AQ-9 flights are routine.  There is no reason to suggest this one specific flight was any different than any of the hundreds of others.  Which suggests someone made a decision first then ordered the planes to go up close and personal. 

Not only did the Russians likely know what this was even before the went up into the air, it would have been very easily confirmed almost instantly once getting into visual range.  No need to get within collision distance.  Which means the Russians most likely intended to bring the drone down.

The fuel dump was the first attempt at a plausible deniable take down of the drone, but it didn't work and so hitting the prop with a wing did the trick.

The amount of time and precision flying that is necessary to clip the prop instead of missing or catastrophic collision is immense.  It is also unlikely that the Russian plane was flying so close that it couldn't have maneuvered out of the way if the AQ-9 suddenly changed its flight pattern (which, as I understand it, is not SOP for these situations).

Improvisational confrontations with the US are not something lower level or even senior level commanders would do on their own.  That isn't the sort of thing Russians do, so that leaves either complete accident (facts say otherwise) or orders from Putin himself (generally, at least).

Steve

[NamEndedAllen]

Making headlines and read on Fox/Carlson.  Underscoring the growing divide between pro Ukraine/USA Senate Republicans, and the noisy rump group of Russia leaning House Republicans plus popular Presidential hopefuls Trump and DeSantis. Polls of Republican voters show a very narrow margin favoring support for Ukraine. Will it matter in the 2024 Election?
“Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) is dismissing Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as a “territorial dispute” and says protecting the European nation is not a vital U.S. interest, firmly putting the potential presidential candidate on the side of Donald Trump and at odds with top congressional Republicans. DeSantis delivered his foreign policy opinion in response to a questionnaire from Tucker Carlson, the Fox News host, foe of U.S. aid to Ukraine and frequent critic of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. Carlson read DeSantis’s statement on his Monday night program in which he also shared responses from the former president and former vice president Mike Pence, among other potential White House candidates.” - Washington Post, By Leo Sands, John Wagner, Dan Lamothe and Meryl Kornfield March 14, 2023 at 1:07 p.m. PT

 

[Battlefront.com]

57 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Sorry if video was posted here before, but may be worth to check it:

 

Thanks for posting.  First I've seen of it.

This battle would have gone very differently if the guys at the bottom of the screen had only withdrawn to the first bend instead of three bends back.  Or if the guys to in the upper part of the screen had more hand grenades and hadn't withdrawn.  Seems the coms within the trench weren't good at all, nor does it seem the drone's information was getting to them.

Looks like got that shot by his comrades was able to get out of there on his own power, but the guy he was initially with didn't.  One Ukrainian soldier didn't look to make it, one other definitely wounded.

I think I saw a dud hand grenade tossed by the Russians.

Steve