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How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?


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14 minutes ago, Grigb said:

Some days ago, RU Nats discussed the need for RU to begin crashing US intelligence drones to send a message to the US on intelligence assistance for UKR.

RU are very afraid of UKR offensive. 

I've been sitting on this bit of RUMINT for a bit, so might as well post it here:

Ukraine might soon have a decent long range ISR capacity of their own.

Steve

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Some days ago, RU Nats discussed the need for RU to begin crashing US intelligence drones to send a message to the US on intelligence assistance for UKR.

RU are very afraid of UKR offensive. 

After downing the US military aircraft shouldn't they be more afraid of US offensive?

Edited by Tenses
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More tank destruction, geolocated to Pervomaiske.  Nothing terribly special about the first one (Javelin hit?), but the second one did raise an eyebrow.  Just goes to show that an object in motion tends to stay in motion as long as the engine is still running and the transmission is in gear.

Who will be the first to ID the second destroyed tank?  T-62 without reactive armor? (edit, I see commentators thinking the same thing)

Special Kherson Cat also has a video showing the crazy MTLB Frankenstein vehicles on transporters headed through Melitopol.

Steve

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7 minutes ago, Tenses said:

After downing the US military aircraft shouldn't they be more afraid of US offensive?

They do not believe US will do anything to them. It is just a drone. And US are pussies who are afraid of RU Satan and Hypervelocity missiles.

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12 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

 

Who will be the first to ID the second destroyed tank?  T-62 without reactive armor? (edit, I see commentators thinking the same thing)

Without a doubt.. you can even make out, if you look close enough, the bore evacuator in the middle of the barrel.

Edited by Bil Hardenberger
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Dimitri posted a really nice bit of Russian combat footage with translation:

This was taken somewhere near Vuhledar by 155th Marines.  They were obviously getting hit very hard.  Note that they are well armed (PKM and RPG-22) and appear to be well equipped.  Radio chatter indicates someone is actively directing units instead of it being a free-for-all.  Definitely signs of a better quality unit.

Steve

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A little aside on the future of tactical equipment.

The print version of IEEE Spectrum that just came has an article about giving people extra arms that are controlled by neural signals.  This kind of thing has already been done for prosthetics, but they're proposing adding a couple arms on a backpack so you can have them work independently of your meat arms.  That, in itself, would be useful for the super ghillie suit when the tank is fully dead - you could have the extra arms reach up over the cover to fire so your meat arms aren't put at risk.

https://spectrum.ieee.org/human-augmentation

But the same type of control and feedback could also be applied to personal drones. Individual soldiers could have drones that function like familiars (traditionally magic users have used things like cats/rats/bats/etc for this purpose) to act as their spotters. With neural feedback practice it would just go to where you want it while it follows you around.  

And re the downing of the MQ-9:  That could potentially end poorly for Russian aerospace assets, but it may not be something we hear about for a few years.

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6 minutes ago, Bil Hardenberger said:

Without a doubt.. you can even make out, if you look close enough, the bore evacuator in the middle of the barrel.

Cool.  I was focused on the turret size/shape and was happy I got what I needed from that.  I'm utter crap at ID'ing the newer tanks.

For me this is the first time I've seen footage of a T-62 conducting combat ops.  Not only that, conducting it alongside a T-72.  Previously all I've seen were T-62s handed out together for newly raised units.  Indicating, again, that Russia is running out of T-72s and is now substituting T-62s.

Steve

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16 minutes ago, sburke said:

time to provide them a fighter escort.

Hmmm surprised that they didn't have a fast response team ready to get into the area when they noticed the Russian jets approaching. I guess it's not that simple?

Certainly an expensive asset to lose in an "accident"

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41 minutes ago, cesmonkey said:

This story is getting a lot of play. At the moment, it's the lead story on cnn.com, thehill.com, and foxnews.com, cbsnews.com, nbcnews.com

It's an interesting event on numerous levels. Russia certainly does not want to provoke greater conventional intervention by the US/EU. Knocking down drones well into international waters (I have tracked these drones and they typically do figure eights in the middle of the Black Sea) has every chance of making that happen. It also weakens the argument they must have been happy to hear from DeSantis that the war is a "territorial issue" when Moscow is tangling with US assets well out of either national space. 

Ockham's razor...they are really worried about upcoming Ukrainian moves and they think it's worth taking that kind of risk to limit US ISR to some degree. 

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Seems to be official RU response

Quote
  • On the morning of March 14, an American UAV flight was recorded in the area of the Crimean Peninsula in the direction of the state border of the Russian Federation
  • The flight of the US drone was carried out with the transponders turned off and violation of the boundaries of the airspace
  • After the discovery of the American drone, fighter jets were lifted into the air;
  • As a result of sharp maneuvering, the US drone went into an uncontrolled flight with a loss of altitude and collided with the water surface.

 

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6 hours ago, Maciej Zwolinski said:

Germans did that in WW2 and the Russians answer was ...

Two immutable laws of combat:

1) actions get reactions, which in turn cause re-reactions, &c.

2) ground dictates.

Edited by JonS
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34 minutes ago, Holien said:

Hmmm surprised that they didn't have a fast response team ready to get into the area when they noticed the Russian jets approaching. I guess it's not that simple?

Certainly an expensive asset to lose in an "accident"

The Bosporus and Dardanelles are closed to warships weren't already based in the BS before the war, so essentially no naval vessels in or out.  In principle the US could send an unarmed civilian contractor vessel to recover it.

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