How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[dan/california]

11 minutes ago, sburke said:

UK to provide Ukraine with twice as many Challenger 2 tanks as promised ambassador (yahoo.com)

Vadym Prystaiko, Ambassador of Ukraine to the United Kingdom, in an interview with Radio Liberty

According to Prystaiko, the UK promised Ukraine 14 Challenger 2 tanks, but following the results of President Volodymyr Zelenskyy's visit to Britain in February, it was agreed that this number would double.

I am still hoping the Brits will go all the way and just send the entire Challenger 2 fleet to Ukraine. Then they can either take the short term rational option and buy Abrams, or the longer term one and go entirely next generation, whatever that is in five years or so. In the meantime the Challenger 2s get to go kill the army they were built to fight in the first place. Quintuple points if this is already underway and a hundred plus Challenger 2s lead the spring offensive right down to the sea of Azov.

Hey Steve are we ever getting a new game to help answer that what is the next generation question? Or are you at a training center in Germany promoting yourself to medium sized defense contractor as I type.

Edited March 4, 2023 by dan/california

[chrisl]

4 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

For the CM next gen special effects files:

Shades of Ortona

 

 

And you question the precision vs mass thing?  Here's the radio exchange:

UA Drone Operator: "Dude, wiggle your rifle so we know which one is you"

UA surrounded guy: (wiggles rifle).

UA Drone Operator: You're totally surrounded.  Don't move.

UA Done operator: On the way.......splash.....

Russians: (screaming).

[dan/california]

1 minute ago, chrisl said:

And you question the precision vs mass thing?  Here's the radio exchange:

UA Drone Operator: "Dude, wiggle your rifle so we know which one is you"

UA surrounded guy: (wiggles rifle).

UA Drone Operator: You're totally surrounded.  Don't move.

UA Done operator: On the way.......splash.....

Russians: (screaming).

It makes that 1:7 casualty ratio look pessimistic.

[chrisl]

2 hours ago, The_Capt said:

 A guy I work with noted that we are one of the few professions that has to put up with this much amateur armchair quarterbacking - pretty sure chest surgeons are not on a forum trying to explain by-pass surgery to a bunch of guys who played Surgeon Simulator 2, and then get accused of “talking down”. (Who am I kidding it is 2023…)

You're just hanging out on the wrong forums.

[Elmar Bijlsma]

6 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

Fivehead? 

Same as forehead, but with more brains behind it. It is gamer lingo.

Of course, if we take this punning to it's logical conclusion,we may infer the existence of the threehead. And I think I have found proof of it. Behold:

What did those poor MTLBs ever do to deserve that treatment?

It's just such a bad idea on many levels, I just cannot fathom what they were thinking. Except that someone either made a quick buck with this **** or the Russians don't have the number of BMP 2s and 3s that they'd like to have.

[chrisl]

2 hours ago, danfrodo said:

Like articles that come out saying how US could've won in Vietnam if we just used "this one simple trick", basically. 

Here's mine: We should have airdropped cadillacs and color TV sets in enormous quantities all over north vietnam. Enough for everybody. And then broadcast american sitcoms.  It would have cost less and been more effective.

[dan/california]

6 minutes ago, chrisl said:

Here's mine: We should have airdropped cadillacs and color TV sets in enormous quantities all over north vietnam. Enough for everybody. And then broadcast american sitcoms.  It would have cost less and been more effective.

No, the mistake was ~fifteen years before that. We should have brokered a peaceful French departure, and made The North Vietnamese a better offer than China's. 

[Battlefront.com]

3 hours ago, The_Capt said:

So what?  Well first off Attack-Defence ratios are in the wind, at least on the UA side.  They retook Kherson at a 1.5:1 attacker to defender ratio, while successfully defended Kyiv at as high as a 1:12 defender ratio.  The RA has had nearly an inverse result, massive overmatch ratios do not work, nor do traditional defensive ones.  The determinative factor appear to be ISR advantage, combined with an ability to generate ersatz Air superiority through deep precision strike.  Bottom line, there is not much good news for the RA with respect to mass.

The ratios in this war have been totally out of whack with recent standards.  However, I think we're talking about a combination of things that together create the conditions necessary for this to work:

1. ISR - if you know where your enemy is, you don't have to expend resources where they aren't.
2. Targeting - knowledge is useful on its own, but combined with the ability to strike where the enemy is instead of isn't is critical.
3. Precision - targeting with dumb munitions, infantry, ballsy tank moves, etc. is all good stuff, however being able to drop a single shell onto something significant and make it go away is even better.
4. Deep strike - the ability to effectively strike things far away from the front that you might want gone, such as AD, HQs, logistics, stockpiles, etc., is an entirely separate advantage.
5. Quality/Motivation - as with anything, the attacker's job is so much easier if the enemy bunches up, runs away, etc. changes the underlying nature of the battle.  Retreat and panic tend to spread, so there's that too.
6. Poor equipment - if your enemy has a narrow range of weaponry or defensive capabilities, then the options for exploiting ISR go up.
7. Lack of parity - most of these things listed above can cut both ways if the defender has them and the attacker doesn't.  Which means to the degree the attacker has X and the defender doesn't, the more all of the above is enhanced for the attacker.

Point #7 can also explain why Russia has done comparatively worse when on the offensive than Ukraine even when Russia had vastly superior force ratios.  It really is a Khafji situation where the attacker got decimated by a smaller defender because numerical advantages aren't enough these days.

Steve

[dan/california]

 

It must kill The Pickle to read the thread, give the Russian MOD excellent advice, and watch them ignore it completely. Hopefully it will increase his blood pressure to the point it breaks something important.

[Kinophile]

8 hours ago, chrisl said:

I have to disagree on a bunch of that.

#1) I'm not so sure that defense is strongly favored.  Ukraine wasn't prepared to fight a static defense and had to give up a lot of territory early to trade for time.  If defense were heavily favored, Russia wouldn't have made the initial gains that it did.  When Ukraine has been on deliberate offense (Kyiv, Kharkiv, then Kherson) they've made rapid gains.  What they didn't do in any of those is attack head on.

Agree with all but not the bold. In Kherson At least initially,  UKR seemed to go full assault but rapidly bogged down into a very solid defence network,  where the Russians seemed to turn the tables on them,  trading tactical distance for operational time. The units forming the RUS lines were no joke and heavily armed,  but as you essentially note,  a fixed defence faces inevitable destruction. So the ZSU pinned the Ivans in place and relentlessly corroded their rear areas. 

The next assault phase at Kherson seemed to be several months later when cracks finally became exploitable and direct assaults were useful. Then full on frontal assaults had good effect. 

So essentially they do run large frontage frontal assaults but in general,  and certainly still dependent on local command quality,  they are far more smart about it than the majority of Russian command cadres. They're more flexible and patient. 

But Russia has its smart tactical leaders also. I think when UKR tries an attack and runs into someone smart on te other end they are far more likely and far quicker to call off the op a d switch emphasis,  locus,  tactics or even drop it altogether. 

But Russian attacks,  man, they're the bloody gift that just keeps on giving. 

Edited March 4, 2023 by Kinophile
Added "Kherson "

[chrisl]

36 minutes ago, Elmar Bijlsma said:

Same as forehead, but with more brains behind it. It is gamer lingo.

Of course, if we take this punning to it's logical conclusion,we may infer the existence of the threehead. And I think I have found proof of it. Behold:

What did those poor MTLBs ever do to deserve that treatment?

It's just such a bad idea on many levels, I just cannot fathom what they were thinking. Except that someone either made a quick buck with this **** or the Russians don't have the number of BMP 2s and 3s that they'd like to have.

I had seen a picture of one a few days ago.  But the thought that they did this more than once?  

Just get them to chase you across a steep slope.  Yikes.

Edited March 4, 2023 by chrisl
autocorrect. grrrr

[Battlefront.com]

3 minutes ago, chrisl said:

I had seen a picture of one a few days ago.  But the thought that they did this more than once?  

Just get them to trace you across a steep slope.  Yikes.

Nah, just give them a few dozen KMs of travel and the rear suspension or transmission will give out.  While most vehicles have a certain amount of flexibility built into them, this is so extreme that I doubt if the MT-LB can handle it.

Steve

[dan/california]

In addition to being deeply twisted, this also represents an important stage in the war. It is sinking into the Russian consciousness that going to fight in Ukraine means you come home in a box. I am guessing that will affect enthusiasm for the endeavor, and soonish. 

[sburke]

4 minutes ago, chrisl said:

I had seen a picture of one a few days ago.  But the thought that they did this more than once?  

Just get them to trace you across a steep slope.  Yikes.

how much weight is that and how is it impacting engine performance?  It certainly isn't adding much for combat effectiveness.

[dan/california]

We have had a YEAR to pour concrete and order machines bleep it!

[sburke]

Quote

 

The US Department of Defence has announced a new aid package for Ukraine totaling 2 billion dollars, which will help strengthen the air defence.

Source: statement of the Pentagon, European Pravda reports.

In particular, the United States will provide additional unmanned aerial vehicles, UAVs and electronic warfare equipment, as well as critical ammunition reserves for artillery and high-precision shooting, which will strengthen Ukraine's ability to repel Russian aggression.

This security aid package includes:

- Additional ammunition for artillery missile systems (HIMARS);

- Additional 155mm artillery shells;

- Ammunition for laser-guided missile systems;

- CyberLux K8 unmanned aerial system;

- The Switchblade 600 UAV;

- The Altius 600 UAV;

- The Jump 20 UAV;

- Means of countering UAVs and detecting electronic warfare equipment;

- Mine clearance equipment;

- Equipment for ensuring secure communication;

- Financing for training and maintenance.

 

 

Dang, I need a new copy of Jane's just to know what a lot of this stuff is

 

Ukraine Gets Huge Boost In Deadly Drone Capabilities From U.S. (thedrive.com)

Edited March 4, 2023 by sburke

[Battlefront.com]

9 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

Agree with all but not the bold.  At least initially,  UKR seemed to go full assault but rapidly bogged down into a very solid defence network,  where the Russians seemed to turn the tables on them,  trading tactical distance for operational time. The units forming the RUS lines were no joke and heavily armed,  but as you essentially note,  a fixed defence faces inevitable destruction. So the ZSU pinned the Ivans in place and relentlessly corroded their rear areas. 

I agree.

There's so little solid information to go off of, but my impression is that Ukraine thought it had sufficient forces (numbers and composition) to breach Russian lines and follow traditional exploitation doctrine.  It doesn't seem that it worked out like that.  Instead, Ukraine seems to have either stumbled on breaching or on exploitation far more than they predicted.  This then necessitated months of heavy fighting with only periodic gains of significant territory.  By the time Russia decided to retreat, Ukraine was tired and weary which allowed the bulk of the Russian forces to escape.

That said, Ukraine was doing a lot more than assaulting and those other activities (mostly interdicting LOCs and munition stockpiles) wound up causing the entire Kherson front to become untenable. 

In my view Russia has *NEVER* been able to collapse an entire sector of Ukrainian front since this war started.  Even in Ukraine's toughest fight so far (Kherson), it achieved a collapse. 

Steve

[chrisl]

1 minute ago, sburke said:

how much weight is that and how is it impacting engine performance?  It certainly isn't adding much for combat effectiveness.

Reminds me of when a friend bought an industrial robot cheap on ebay.  He asked the guy about the weight (which he could have googled) and the guy gave a number that was a factor of 4 or 5 lower than reality.  Friend says "awesome, my small pickup truck can handle that" and drives halfway across the country to pick it up.  Then I get an email with a giant-*** robot arm in the back of a pickup truck that's so overloaded he has about a foot of contact patch on the rear tires.  A little heavier and he might have blown them off the rims.  They forked it back out of his truck and the guy refunded him (since he'd given such a wrong weight).  Should have gotten a one way u-haul rental of a car trailer, but it was done before he asked me for advice.

[Battlefront.com]

3 minutes ago, sburke said:

 

Dang, I need a new copy of Jane's just to know what a lot of this stuff is

 

Ukraine Gets Huge Boost In Deadly Drone Capabilities From U.S. (thedrive.com)

There's some very nice stuff on that list!  Here's a breakdown of what these things are:

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraine-gets-huge-boost-in-deadly-drone-capabilities-from-u-s

Personally, I am most excited by the 600x Switchblade 600.  Each has the same lethality as a Javelin, but it can be deployed similar to artillery in that the unit doing the launching need not be right in the thick of the battle as a Javelin operator very well might.  It is also less likely to be in the wrong place at the right time as Javelin because it doesn't require LOS to the target when launched.

I expect the kill ratio for Switchblade 600 will be vastly superior to that of Javelin.

Steve

[sburke]

2 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

I expect the kill ratio for Switchblade 600 will be vastly superior to that of Javelin.

Steve

yeah  it is time to stop worrying about boiling the frog and just serve up some frog's legs.  Hopefully when the UA says soon they aren't using it in the same vein as you do.  

oh fk did I just get booted off the beta list?

[akd]

35 minutes ago, chrisl said:

I had seen a picture of one a few days ago.  But the thought that they did this more than once?  

Just get them to chase you across a steep slope.  Yikes.

Pretty sad when you have to go to Navweaps to figure out Russia’s latest AFV design:

http://www.navweaps.com/Weapons/WNRussian_25mm-79_2m-3.php

[poesel]

Longish good thread on the state of repair of the Kerch Bridge.

TL;DR: the rail bridge is substantially damaged, and one section needs to be replaced. ETA is July.

IIRC we guessed that back then.

 

[pintere]

Lavrov turned into Laughrov

 

[Probus]

With Russia focused on Ukraine, why is this not a thing:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/craighooper/2022/10/24/as-russia-gets-weaker-xi-jinping-may-forgo-taiwan-to-grab-eastern-russia/amp/

China should be looking North, not towards Taiwan.  Next Combat Mission may want to include this possiblity. 

Eagle, Bear, & Dragon

Edited March 4, 2023 by Probus

[dan/california]

6 minutes ago, Probus said:

With Russia focused on Ukraine, why is this not a thing:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/craighooper/2022/10/24/as-russia-gets-weaker-xi-jinping-may-forgo-taiwan-to-grab-eastern-russia/amp/

China should be looking North, not towards Taiwan.  Next Combat Mission may want to include this possiblity. 

Eagle, Bear, & Dragon

Been saying this for months. Xi can attack Taiwan, destroy the world economy, and almost certainly the CCCP. Or he can bite off the easternmost quarter of Russia, say "sorry Vladimir" and be the toast of Davos, this shouldn't be a hard choice.