How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[danfrodo]

Interesting article in NYT today, if you can get past paywall.  About destroying RU armored columns around Vulehdar.  Title is kinda over the top, says 'tank battles' but it's really combined arms destroying RU armor.  

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/01/world/europe/ukraine-russia-tanks.html

Here we are on March 1.  Bakhmut looks bad, but as long as UKR gets its folks out w their gear, is it really all that bad?  Depends on the damage done to each side, I suppose, because Bakhmut itself is not exactly war changing terrain.

Meanwhile, RU getting clobbered around Vulehdar, and making no progress anywhere else outside Bakhmut.  Which all gets back to the question that keeps nagging at me:  how much can RU get ready in a month or two for UKR offensive?  And just how good is UKR at offensive actions?  

No one knows when ground will be dry enough for UKR to make its move.  And we don't know where.  We all think in the south but maybe they feint that and go for Starobilsk first.  Right now RU can defend just along roads but when ground dries they have to defend hundreds of KM of line.  That's gonna be quite a test for those RU troops & commanders.  

 

Edited March 1, 2023 by danfrodo

[Harmon Rabb]

15 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Yeah, I think I'd prefer "Ukraine Volunteer" not be cited here until there's ample proof he's legit.  We all remember the creative writing from Canadian Volunteer (or whatever his Twitter handle was) that we wrestled with for a while before being outed as a fraud.

Steve

Ah yes the infamous "Canadian Ukrainian Volunteer".

Speaking of being able to tell between fantasy and reality, it turns out the movie Under Siege lied to us. Steven Seagal turned out to be the bad guy and Tommy Lee Jones turned out to be the good guy.

But seriously I always liked Tommy Lee Jones and this video makes me like him even more. 

 

[Battlefront.com]

9 minutes ago, billbindc said:

Exactly.

Note to fans...if it's too good to be true then it probably isn't what it says it is or it is outright fabrication/fanfic. Big warning signs: topicality, breadth of knowledge, etc. 

The big red flag is the strategic view of the battlefield.  That's not the sort of thing one would expect from someone active in the trenches.

There's nothing in those reports that a half dozen of us here could have written.

Steve

[The_Capt]

23 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Yeah, I think I'd prefer "Ukraine Volunteer" not be cited here until there's ample proof he's legit.  We all remember the creative writing from Canadian Volunteer (or whatever his Twitter handle was) that we wrestled with for a while before being outed as a fraud.

Steve

God that C4 cooking story is as old as time:

https://www.smithsonianmag.com/arts-culture/fishing-with-grenades-and-cooking-with-c4-a-veterans-vietnam-food-memories-104572114/

Been hearing that one for years. I am sure some troops tried it, but no professional NCO is going to put up with it today.  Plus modern MREs come with boiling bags:  

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flameless_ration_heater

https://newatlas.com/mealspec-flameless-cooker-boil-water/32061/

The other guys aren't looking at him in awe because he is so hardcore, they are wondering why the f#ck this old fossil is burning HE to make coffee!  I mean the US has shipped hundreds of thousands of these things to the UA.   

[sburke]

A Ukrainian drone operator being followed by a film crew feared his life could end at 'any moment.' He was killed the day before the documentary aired. (yahoo.com)

Edited March 1, 2023 by sburke

[billbindc]

28 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

The big red flag is the strategic view of the battlefield.  That's not the sort of thing one would expect from someone active in the trenches.

There's nothing in those reports that a half dozen of us here could have written.

Steve

Yep. And how he’s going from topic to topic…tactical fights, then recon, then EW(!), etc. It’s possible he’s real but if so, he’s having a highly singular experience of the war that just so happens to be a good way to maintain reader interest. It is also possible that it is a consolidation of a few folks experiences but if so there’s no reason not to just say that out front. I’ve gone from moderately skeptical to completely discounting it at this point.

[Maciej Zwolinski]

7 minutes ago, billbindc said:

Yep. And how he’s going from topic to topic…tactical fights, then recon, then EW(!), etc. It’s possible he’s real but if so, he’s having a highly singular experience of the war that just so happens to be a good way to maintain reader interest.

Yep. After watching too many advertisements for kids I call it the "My little pony princess mermaid" approach. Too much of a good thing rolled into one.

[danfrodo]

Interesting summary here today.  There's video of RU tank crew stranded, w wounded, in a crater a few hundred meters back from their burning tank.  Yet they are all saying "glory to russia".  Shouldn't they be saying "we need evac ASAP?".  It was a very weird video.  Another one shows UKR soldiers riding a BMP but w thick mud on their legs up to the knee.  What a mess.  Meanwhile, Bakhmut still doing Bakhmut things, for the moment.

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/3/1/2155616/-Ukraine-update-After-a-night-and-morning-of-fierce-fighting-Bakhmut-still-holds

 

[Bulletpoint]

24 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

Interesting summary here today.  There's video of RU tank crew stranded, w wounded, in a crater a few hundred meters back from their burning tank.  Yet they are all saying "glory to russia".  Shouldn't they be saying "we need evac ASAP?".  It was a very weird video.

When people film themselves, there's always a reason and a purpose. Somebody is meant to see the video and it's intended to make them think something.

I'm guessing the purpose here is to get noticed by higher ups and maybe getting a promotion or similar reward.

It could even be their commanders told them that there's a bonus on the line for those who film the best morale boosting videos?

They probably noticed by now that Ukraine completely dominates the online propaganda space.

[danfrodo]

3 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

When people film themselves, there's always a reason and a purpose. Somebody is meant to see the video and it's intended to make them think something.

I'm guessing the purpose here is to get noticed by higher ups and maybe getting a promotion or similar reward.

It could even be their commanders told them that there's a bonus on the line for those who film the best morale boosting videos?

They probably noticed by now that Ukraine completely dominates the online propaganda space.

Seems like worst propaganda video ever, though: "we're stranded here two days, w wounded.  Oh, up there's our burning tank.  Everything is just dandy!  Hugs & kisses to Comrade Putin, thanks for letting us share in your glory here in this hole, pinned down & freezing."

[Bulletpoint]

1 minute ago, danfrodo said:

Seems like worst propaganda video ever, though: "we're stranded here two days, w wounded.  Oh, up there's our burning tank.  Everything is just dandy!  Hugs & kisses to Comrade Putin, thanks for letting us share in your glory here in this hole, pinned down & freezing."

I'm not saying it's good propaganda - I'm saying it might be that crew's attempt at making lemonade after being dealt a highly kinetic lemon.

[The_Capt]

39 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

Interesting summary here today.  There's video of RU tank crew stranded, w wounded, in a crater a few hundred meters back from their burning tank.  Yet they are all saying "glory to russia".  Shouldn't they be saying "we need evac ASAP?".  It was a very weird video.  Another one shows UKR soldiers riding a BMP but w thick mud on their legs up to the knee.  What a mess.  Meanwhile, Bakhmut still doing Bakhmut things, for the moment.

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/3/1/2155616/-Ukraine-update-After-a-night-and-morning-of-fierce-fighting-Bakhmut-still-holds

 

Are we sure he wasn't being ironic?  I count four guys in that hole, Russian tank crews are 3, so possibly remnants of several vehicles. 

[danfrodo]

2 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Are we sure he wasn't being ironic?  I count four guys in that hole, Russian tank crews are 3, so possibly remnants of several vehicles. 

If he had just used the proper emojis we would've known, no?  

(TheCapt is going to make me suffer for this one....)

Edited March 1, 2023 by danfrodo

[The_Capt]

1 minute ago, danfrodo said:

If he had just used the proper emojis we would've known, no?  

(TheCapt is going to make me suffer for this one....)

Why man, just why?  I mean we were doing so well...

Hard to tell but having a tank blown out underneath you and being in a wet, cold hole with two shot up guys is perfect timing for a sarcastic "glory to Russia" stream post where I am from.  Also hard to get jacked for it afterwards, I mean he is saying all the right words, technically.

Or maybe he is a true believer and the other guys are like, "whatever, should probably turn the phone off before we get lit up, again idiot." 

[danfrodo]

3 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Why man, just why?  I mean we were doing so well...

Hard to tell but having a tank blown out underneath you and being in a wet, cold hole with two shot up guys is perfect timing for a sarcastic "glory to Russia" stream post where I am from.  Also hard to get jacked for it afterwards, I mean he is saying all the right words, technically.

Or maybe he is a true believer and the other guys are like, "whatever, should probably turn the phone off before we get lit up, again idiot." 

I was just messin' w ya, TheCapt.  Please punish not this unworthy wretch.  I think you are right, it's probably sarcasm.  That poor wounded guy must've been utterly miserable -- But hey, next time turn your gun on your masters & defect and there will probably be a better outcome.

[Eddy]

(2) Germany will increase ammunition production and repair capacity to support Ukraine, chancellor pledges (cnn.com)

Quote

“We will ensure that the production of ammunition is advanced, both for the weapons that we have supplied ourselves and those that come from classic stocks that are available in eastern Europe,” Scholz continued.

I guess he means 152 and 122 when he says classic stocks.

[Lethaface]

46 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

I'm not saying it's good propaganda - I'm saying it might be that crew's attempt at making lemonade after being dealt a highly kinetic lemon.

nice one

[Lethaface]

What would you say knowing your time has probably come? If I'd be fighting in some dodgy war for my country and knowing I'd be dying soon probably I guess my last words would be Heil Holland or sumfink (hopefully guns blazing instead of cowering though) 

Edited March 1, 2023 by Lethaface

[Beleg85]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

Are we sure he wasn't being ironic?  I count four guys in that hole, Russian tank crews are 3, so possibly remnants of several vehicles. 

It's stupid propaganda from our western point of view- if that would happen to anyone in NATO armies, we would instantly have massive outcry 'please get our boys out of there' and investigations of superiors; while I am more than certain muscovite propaganda will use it as example of "brave spirit of our soldiers". Here we probably witness a mix of dark Russian irony and pride of being proper muzhik, which is a consequence of being uncritically embedded in a system he doesn't even try to understand and (un)healthy paesant complacency. Red Army drove to Berlin on that mix, basically. Oh, and vodka ofc.

Broadly similar set of behaviours we discussed long ago when trying to figure out what drives so many Russian soldiers to their certain deaths in context of culture behind their odd military.

Edited March 1, 2023 by Beleg85

[Fernando]

The video is absolutely demoralizing. It seems to me that this soldier is making intelligent criticism in a way that is impossible to prosecute by the Putin dictatorship. If so, very smart.

[dan/california]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

Are we sure he wasn't being ironic?  I count four guys in that hole, Russian tank crews are 3, so possibly remnants of several vehicles. 

Can i point out that tanks don't usually burn for two days? Of course it is entirely possible he is so concussed he thinks Nicholas II is still the czar. And the Russian army sux at war. Unless you consider leaving virtually unarmed vehicle crews in a hole until exposure or Ukrainian mortars put them out of their misery is being good at it?

 

Edited March 1, 2023 by dan/california

[Haiduk]

3 hours ago, FancyCat said:

Interestingly, the brigade has its own recon/drone section now.

Artillery brigades as far as since 2015 in first order had been equipping with drones and PDAs with special artillery software like GISArta. I can't say exactly where "shtat" drone units appeared, probbaly since 2017 so far. 

Often artillery units had "shtat" drone park, which formally belonged to artillery recon battalion - this is fixed-wing UAVs like Furia. But batteries often have own "over-shatet" fleet of civil Mavics or Matrices. 

[Taranis]

 

 

[Haiduk]

2 hours ago, danfrodo said:

Interesting summary here today.  There's video of RU tank crew stranded, w wounded, in a crater a few hundred meters back from their burning tank.  Yet they are all saying "glory to russia".  Shouldn't they be saying "we need evac ASAP?".  It was a very weird video.  Another one shows UKR soldiers riding a BMP but w thick mud on their legs up to the knee.  What a mess.  Meanwhile, Bakhmut still doing Bakhmut things, for the moment.

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/3/1/2155616/-Ukraine-update-After-a-night-and-morning-of-fierce-fighting-Bakhmut-still-holds

 

”If this is the case they are wasting future offensive potential on a lost cause. I hope I'm wrong about Syrskyi, but he has made some strange calls.”

Looks like in offensive will be involved completely another brigades. The task of current ones- to win a time, grind the offensive potential of Russians and hold their troops. 

If we abandon Bakhmut the Russian offensive will not stop. We will have the same heavy fights for Kostiantynivka or even worse - Kramatorsk and Sloviansk. 

Edited March 1, 2023 by Haiduk

[Harmon Rabb]

New one and a half hour interview with Ben Hodges.