How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[kevinkin]

Everyone's trying to put their spin on China:

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-02-28/russia-china-ties-will-xi-jinping-help-putin-in-ukraine/102027440

Three reasons China wants to help Russia
First, the reaction to possible Chinese support for Russia will inform Chinese plans for aggression against its neighbours, including Taiwan.

Second, China has no interest in the war in Ukraine being over anytime soon. Indeed, just as Iraq and Afghanistan distracted the US from the Pacific in the past two decades, China would prefer the US and Europe continue providing their best weapons to Ukraine and remain preoccupied in Europe.

Finally, it is not in China's interest for Russia to lose. As a fellow traveller in the small but powerful techno-authoritarian club, a defeat for Russia would be seen as a severe challenge to Xi's narrative about a West in decline.

It might also impact on the willingness of many in the "global south" to forge closer links to China and move away from Western nations.

This means China would have to support Russia at such levels as to overcome Russia's incompetence to use it effectively. This is a classic case of the impossibility of be sort of pregnant. China has to do effectively nothing other than buy energy, or go all in. It would be better if they just came across as a peacemaker and let the chips fall as they may. To go all in and have Russia defeated anyway would be a major set back for China. 

 

[sburke]

56 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

As opposed to what?  Watching war-porn as the UA and RA blast away over shattered lands in the mud?  Hand-wringing and pearl clutching at imminent victory/defeat? 

It is pretty clear that if Ukraine wants to get this going back their way they are going to need to dislocate Russia strategically.  Dry humping in the Donbas is a dead end unless the RA collapsed entirely.  So we are at a play down the center to cut the theatres and then taking on the Crimea.

Between the UA and western supporters they have likely got rooms full of guys working this stuff out.

as opposed to focusing more on getting to the point of isolating Crimea..  Step 1 versus figuring out step 2.  So most of what you posted here to me is step 1.  What happens after step 1 depends a lot on how step 1 is accomplished... and I don't have any pearls.  You always forget me for our anniversary.  You know those parking garages are at the mall... where the jewelry stores are... just sayin.

Edited February 28, 2023 by sburke

[sburke]

and the infighting continues

Russian Mercenary Boss Drags ‘A-Hole’ Family of Putin’s War Chief (yahoo.com)

[Haiduk]

16 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

4.  one guy seemed to be doing the controls while the other was watching form a tablet.

It's also because commercial drone can't automatically determinate coordinates of target. So, one guy flying and when the team see something, that guy with tablet looks approximately on the the electronic map the place and takes coordinates for transmitting or fire adjusting simply by voice like "overshot 100 m". 

Specialized military drones like Furia, Leleka, PD-1/2, designed for artillery targeting and recon can do it 2 in 1. Some drones except this automatically recalculate GPS coordinates of target into square coordinates, suitable for artillery data and transmit it to guns via Kropyva or other special soft.  

Edited February 28, 2023 by Haiduk

[The_Capt]

10 minutes ago, sburke said:

as opposed to focusing more on getting to the point of isolating Crimea..  Step 1 versus figuring out step 2.  So most of what you posted here to me is step 1.  What happens after step 1 depends a lot on how step 1 is accomplished... and I don't have any pearls.  You always forget me for our anniversary.  You know those parking garages are at the mall... where the jewelry stores are... just sayin.

Pearls are just glossed oyster poop. 

Ah, well perhaps I see the problem then.  In military parlance we get into J35 versus J5 space.  Step 1 - is likely in the J35 space, while Step 2 - Crimea is in J5.   We do both at once, not liking to plan things just before we do them, we push planning out and adjust as required.   That, and there are capability/force generation decision that will need to be made now to support Step 2 - so it behooves to have an idea of what one wants that to look like. 

For example, if the west gets all scope eye on tanks (and we sure as hell did here), they could wind up short-changing the actual capabilities needed for Step 2.  We will have mountains of steel and a 10km nightmare corridor without an ability to choke out the peninsula.  Of course you need to balance with Step 1, but how can you balance if you have no idea as to Step 2?

To my mind Step 1 is pretty much a done deal.  If it is not well then we have a much larger problem on our hands. 

If the UA cannot re-take Melitopol and/or a good chunk of the Northern shore of the Azov then their options space starts to shrink.  Ukraine could try broad corrosive warfare along the Donbas, surging and pulling to try to accelerate RA collapse.  If we think choking out the Crimea is a tall order, doing it along the entire Donbas, and southern front is even harder.  The RA supply lines get shorter with more of them in Russia, which opens up the potentially nasty eventuality of sustained strikes inside Russia itself.  I think the odds of this conflict freezing go up, unless the RA fails completely which is not impossible but pretty hard to predict.  Frozen conflict will only shaken western resolve as this thing drags on, it kinda plays into Putins gambit, so not optimal.

So the UA needs to cut down center.  It dislocates the two theatres.  It takes away a major strategic objective (the land bridge) and sets the conditions for what happens next.  If the UA take Melitopol, they threaten the back end of all the forces still on the south bank of the Dnepr.  They will have to turn and fight - and face northern pressure and crossings, or pull back to the Crimean choke point.

The UA slugging it out in the Donbas could get very expensive and end up going nowhere.  I think we may see diversionary ops in Luhansk but main effort will likely be Melitopol.  That is not going to be easy and will have to be a hard going assault, I suspect this entire defensive dance at Bakhmut and surrounding is trying to bleed the RA white to set up for Melitopo, much in the same way Severodonetsk did for Kharkiv. 

So the UA pulls off another major offensive gain at Melitopol and establishes conditions for the battle of Crimea, or this thing might just stall pretty close to where it is now.  We can hope that broad corrosive warfare will continue to collapse in the Donbas and lead somewhere.  I think even at Melitopol there will need to be an element of corrosive warfare but how much is anyone's guess - it may be happening already.

So Step 1 is already written, or start making "other plans".  I mean if anyone else has any ideas shout them out - but we are talking about the road to a UA victory here.  RA collapse could happen at anytime, so lets just put that one up on the "hope" COA.

The good news is that the RA already looks kinda strung out in the center compared to what is going on further east:

(Thank you Jomini of the West)

So Step 2 - Crimea or Donbas...pick your poison.  To my mind it is Crimea, (and apparently Gen Hodges as well).  So start thinking about what that is going to take, and begin to build it now.

[dan/california]

3 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Pearls are just glossed oyster poop. 

Ah, well perhaps I see the problem then.  In military parlance we get into J35 versus J5 space.  Step 1 - is likely in the J35 space, while Step 2 - Crimea is in J5.   We do both at once, not liking to plan things just before we do them, we push planning out and adjust as required.   That, and there are capability/force generation decision that will need to be made now to support Step 2 - so it behooves to have an idea of what one wants that to look like. 

For example, if the west gets all scope eye on tanks (and we sure as hell did here), they could wind up short-changing the actual capabilities needed for Step 2.  We will have mountains of steel and a 10km nightmare corridor without an ability to choke out the peninsula.  Of course you need to balance with Step 1, but how can you balance if you have no idea as to Step 2?

To my mind Step 1 is pretty much a done deal.  If it is not well then we have a much larger problem on our hands. 

If the UA cannot re-take Melitopol and/or a good chunk of the Northern shore of the Azov then their options space starts to shrink.  Ukraine could try broad corrosive warfare along the Donbas, surging and pulling to try to accelerate RA collapse.  If we think choking out the Crimea is a tall order, doing it along the entire Donbas, and southern front is even harder.  The RA supply lines get shorter with more of them in Russia, which opens up the potentially nasty eventuality of sustained strikes inside Russia itself.  I think the odds of this conflict freezing go up, unless the RA fails completely which is not impossible but pretty hard to predict.  Frozen conflict will only shaken western resolve as this thing drags on, it kinda plays into Putins gambit, so not optimal.

So the UA needs to cut down center.  It dislocates the two theatres.  It takes away a major strategic objective (the land bridge) and sets the conditions for what happens next.  If the UA take Melitopol, they threaten the back end of all the forces still on the south bank of the Dnepr.  They will have to turn and fight - and face northern pressure and crossings, or pull back to the Crimean choke point.

The UA slugging it out in the Donbas could get very expensive and end up going nowhere.  I think we may see diversionary ops in Luhansk but main effort will likely be Melitopol.  That is not going to be easy and will have to be a hard going assault, I suspect this entire defensive dance at Bakhmut and surrounding is trying to bleed the RA white to set up for Melitopo, much in the same way Severodonetsk did for Kharkiv. 

So the UA pulls off another major offensive gain at Melitopol and establishes conditions for the battle of Crimea, or this thing might just stall pretty close to where it is now.  We can hope that broad corrosive warfare will continue to collapse in the Donbas and lead somewhere.  I think even at Melitopol there will need to be an element of corrosive warfare but how much is anyone's guess - it may be happening already.

So Step 1 is already written, or start making "other plans".  I mean if anyone else has any ideas shout them out - but we are talking about the road to a UA victory here.  RA collapse could happen at anytime, so lets just put that one up on the "hope" COA.

The good news is that the RA already looks kinda strung out in the center compared to what is going on further east:

(Thank you Jomini of the West)

So Step 2 - Crimea or Donbas...pick your poison.  To my mind it is Crimea, (and apparently Gen Hodges as well).  So start thinking about what that is going to take, and begin to build it now.

Step A of step one, and it is a necessity for everything that comes after, is to put  the Kerch bridge in the water. Multiple spans worth of all three component bridges. NATO should have given Ukraine the missiles to do this nine months ago, and we should surely do it next week.  That announces to the Russians, the Chinese, and everybody else we are serious about this. 

Multiple reports Rasaputitsa has begun, At least from Bakmuht south, we are probably waiting at least another month before next big and visible movement .

[Haiduk]

2 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

RU are of course again throwing assaults squads like before

 

Ok, quite frankly I don't know why they hold to this town so stubbornly. Also part of Ukrainian public seem to be questioning reason here- I saw and read many soldiers opinions it is rather pointless at this point to hold Bakhmut with fingers and nails.

"Madyar" told yesterday Russian offensive bogged for some time ago, especially on south, not only because of UKR counter-attacks, but also because they have thrown mobiks and regulars, substituting with them large part of Wagners. But since motivation of mobiks/regulars turned out not enough, Russians again turned back in mass Wagner merceneries. Though on the north, mostly Wagners are involved. They assault mostly in the night and if they achieve success, positions are seized already regulars and Wagners fall back for next night.

I think, if UKR command decide to defend Bakhmut even in encirclement, it will play the same role as Mariupol - to attract, hold and eliminate as much enemy troops as possible. On background of tensions between some groups in Russian MoD/General Staff and Wagner owners, this operation can be last for Wagner as large influent force. Without hordes of convicted the again become just professional "wardogs", useful only for point operations  

Edited February 28, 2023 by Haiduk

[akd]

Different view of that same BMP-2, showing it take direct hits from gun / ATGMs.  (Don’t know why this keeps getting claimed as mine strikes. You can even see the projectile incoming on the second hit in this one.)

Now here is a Russian demining operation:

 

Edited February 28, 2023 by akd

[Battlefront.com]

5 minutes ago, akd said:

Different view of that same BMP-2, showing it take direct hits from gun / ATGMs.  (Don’t know why this keeps getting claimed as mine strikes. You can even see the projectile incoming on the second hit in this one.)

 

THANK YOU!!!  When someone posted this video a few days ago I could have sworn I saw a round striking the BMP, but the more recently posted video I didn't see it.  I must have watched the thing a dozen times to try and spot it, concluding in the end that I had imagined it.  Now I know I didn't, so I can sleep soundly tonight

Steve

[Haiduk]

4 hours ago, sburke said:

Putin orders Ukraine border tightening as drones hit Russia (yahoo.com)

One drone crashed just 100 kilometers (60 miles) away from Moscow in an alarming development for Russian defenses.

Also Tuesday, several Russian television stations aired a missile attack warning that officials blamed on a hacking attack.

This was UJ-22 of UKR design. Operational range 800 km, payload (recon equipmnet or dropping ammo) - up to 20 kg). Reportedly UAV probably wasted all fuel or hook top of trees and crashed. No ammunition was found nearby or HE inside if it was kamikadze. Russians claimed drone has fell in 100 m from gas distributing stattion of Gazprom pipeline.

 

Next strike took place in Tuapse, the city and port on Russian coast of Black sea, Krasnodar region. Two DIY-cruise missiles Tu-141 hit territory of Rosneft oil base, which maintains it export from Black Sea ports. Alas, both drones hit nearby fuel tank and just destroyed some minor facilities.

Pair of Tu-141 fuing over Tuapse and hit the target.

  And result of strike:

Also one or two Tu-141 crashed near one settlement in Adygeya repuplic in depth of Russian territory

Remains of crashed Tu-141 in Adygeya

... and possible route of Tu-141

Smaller long-range kamikadze UAVs also attacked Belgorod and Briansk oblasts. One of them crashed in Belgorod

St.Peterburg airport "Pulkovo" was closed for several hours because "UFO" appeared nearby. It was vivislbe on radars, but not visually. Su-35 and Su-30 were taken off. Probably this was some EW joke.   

Edited February 28, 2023 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

Explosions on Yeysk airfield, Krasnodar region, Azov sea. 

Locals in TG claimed this was missile strike, so in UKR twitter already heard a talks about next Hrim-2 strike, but I think this were Tu-141 again.

Edited February 28, 2023 by Haiduk

[sburke]

Pretty interesting message to send to Putin after a year of war.

[Haiduk]

And several strikes on UKR territory: 

Four HIMARSes on Kadiivka (Stakhanov), Luhansk oblast. Russian mobile ammo dump hit. Russians now try do not establish large stationery ammo dumps, but often use several trailer-trucks with temporary dislocation

Likely missile strike at the overpass bridge in Donetsk. Puppet "Mayor" of Donetsk made a shot of hole and... we can see probably damaged BTR under the bridge. Locals tell DPR position and checkpoint were inder this bridge already long time

 

Something big has exploded on left bank of Dnipro oppose to Kherson

Edited February 28, 2023 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

Sat photos of A-50 on Machulishchi airfield. 

It's hard to say something, except cahnging of color on antenna and wing. Russian trolls are shouting "this is melted snow, showing grey painting!". Belarusian sources say as if Il-76 and An-26PKS (special aircraft for equipment tests) flew to Machulisshci on the same day, but on next day were departed back to Russia - probablt they could deliver some spare parts and repairing team. 

[Harmon Rabb]

Canadian Armed Forces and Polish Armed Forces training the Armed Forces of Ukraine on Leopard 2s.

[kevinkin]

https://www.jpost.com/international/article-733013

Iran could make enough fissile for one nuclear bomb in "about 12 days," a top US Defense Department official said on Tuesday, down from the estimated one year it would have taken while the 2015 Iran nuclear deal was in effect.

Under Secretary of Defense for Policy Colin Kahl made the comment to a House of Representatives hearing when pressed by a Republican lawmaker why the Biden administration had sought to revive the deal, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).

Honey, now can I get The Macallan Lalique? 

[Vanir Ausf B]

Scrounging for tanks in Europe

__________

“The trend across the board in European armies has been cutting, cutting, cutting,” said Christian Mölling, a defense expert at the German Council on Foreign Relations. “But at the end of the day, many were on the same track as Germany: War is a theoretical thing. So we have theoretical tanks.”

Ulrike Franke, a defense analyst at the European Council on Foreign Relations, said the struggle to find tank numbers raises questions as to where else European militaries face similar shortages and maintenance problems.

“Is it just bad luck that Spain has an issue with their Leopard tanks, but everything else works?” she said. “Or do they have the same issues elsewhere?”

“Does 10% of their equipment not work, or is it 50%?” Franke asked. “It would be a good idea for Europeans to look at this more closely.”

__________

https://www.yahoo.com/news/scrounging-tanks-ukraine-europes-armies-193032025.html

[dan/california]

 

Quote

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/28/movies/bernard-henri-levy-ukraine-documentary.html

 

Quote

It was, he said, a necessary cri de coeur to support Ukraine in a conflict he views as nothing less than a battle for the future of Europe, global liberalism and Western civilization.

He gets it!

[NamEndedAllen]

Well now. This could get quite interesting. 
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/02/28/world/russia-ukraine-news/blinken-to-meet-with-counterparts-in-central-asia?smid=nytcore-ios-share&referringSource=articleShare
A U.S. diplomatic push arrives in the heart of the former Soviet sphere.

The diplomat, Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken, opened a two-day visit to Central Asia by meeting with the president of Kazakhstan and the country’s foreign minister, both of whom expressed a willingness to work with the United States and a commitment to protecting their national sovereignty, an indication of wariness toward Russian aggression.

[dan/california]

 

Quote

 

https://www.google.com/maps/@47.3513797,35.3661386,3a,75y,180h,90.02t,359.81r/data=!3m6!1e1!3m4!1sc_Omq9MSOFzPm_qIfYWdlw!2e0!7i13312!8i6656

https://www.google.com/maps/@47.3071928,35.3687608,3a,75y,90t/data=!3m7!1e1!3m5!1swVuL9RWMhPEEv8FCI1v9VA!2e0!6shttps:%2F%2Fstreetviewpixels-pa.googleapis.com%2Fv1%2Fthumbnail%3Fpanoid%3DwVuL9RWMhPEEv8FCI1v9VA%26cb_client%3Dmaps_sv.tactile.gps%26w%3D203%26h%3D100%26yaw%3D269.28622%26pitch%3D0%26thumbfov%3D100!7i13312!8i6656

https://www.google.com/maps/@47.231671,35.3719182,2638m/data=!3m1!1e3

https://www.google.com/maps/@47.2252916,35.3869353,3a,75y,131.57h,90t/data=!3m6!1e1!3m4!1sBGvMVLloBRQELMLOvIlduA!2e0!7i13312!8i6656

https://www.google.com/maps/@47.2504605,35.3820873,3a,75y,256.89h,90t/data=!3m7!1e1!3m5!1s1TOVdiJIMYrp3QgsX3ERDw!2e0!6shttps:%2F%2Fstreetviewpixels-pa.googleapis.com%2Fv1%2Fthumbnail%3Fpanoid%3D1TOVdiJIMYrp3QgsX3ERDw%26cb_client%3Dmaps_sv.tactile.gps%26w%3D203%26h%3D100%26yaw%3D256.8863%26pitch%3D0%26thumbfov%3D100!7i13312!8i6656!5m1!1e4

 

So, taking The_Capt's excellent advice about step one, these are bunch of zoomed in maps and street view photos along the road that Jomni's map calls the m18, and Googe seems to call the E-105. Because nothing could ever be easy. Free terrain analysis, what worth you paid. It is unbelievably flat, the distance between meaningful tree lines seems on the order of one kilometer +/- and the single densest tree lines seem to be on both sides of the E105 itself. 

So lets say you have a couple of what I assume Ukraines better mechaized brigades are going to look like for the spring offensive. Each brigade has a battalion of bradley's, and a battalion of PT-91s filled out with Ukraines usual mix of post soviet stuff MRAPS, and HUMVEEs. The Russians are dug  similarly to what they were were in Kherson, but with a much lower average troop quality. Because the better troops they got out of Kherson are dying in Kreminna and Bakmuht as I type. How do you cross a kilometer wide pan flat field with the lowest casualties, so that you can cross the one behind that tree line too.

The one thing I keep coming up with is something we have seen very little of in this war. Heavy and effective use of artillery delivered smoke.  Put the Bradleys on overwatch, and roll out what ever you are clearing mines with, followed by the  PT-91s, with MRAPS closing up behind, as soon as you you have lanes cleared close enough to defenses for the infantry to be useful. Tell me where I have it wrong? Not that you gentlemen are ever shy about that. Yes I am assuming they wait until the ground is really dry, can't figure out how to even attempt this otherwise.

[chrisl]

5 minutes ago, dan/california said:

 

So, taking The_Capt's excellent advice about step one, these are bunch of zoomed in maps and street view photos along the road that Jomni's map calls the m18, and Googe seems to call the E-105. Because nothing could ever be easy. Free terrain analysis, what worth you paid. It is unbelievably flat, the distance between meaningful tree lines seems on the order of one kilometer +/- and the single densest tree lines seem to be on both sides of the E105 itself. 

So lets say you have a couple of what I assume Ukraines better mechaized brigades are going to look like for the spring offensive. Each brigade has a battalion of bradley's, and a battalion of PT-91s filled out with Ukraines usual mix of post soviet stuff MRAPS, and HUMVEEs. The Russians are dug  similarly to what they were were in Kherson, but with a much lower average troop quality. Because the better troops they got out of Kherson are dying in Kreminna and Bakmuht as I type. How do you cross a kilometer wide pan flat field with the lowest casualties, so that you can cross the one behind that tree line too.

The one thing I keep coming up with is something we have seen very little of in this war. Heavy and effective use of artillery delivered smoke.  Put the Bradleys on overwatch, and roll out what ever you are clearing mines with, followed by the  PT-91s, with MRAPS closing up behind, as soon as you you have lanes cleared close enough to defenses for the infantry to be useful. Tell me where I have it wrong? Not that you gentlemen are ever shy about that. Yes I am assuming they wait until the ground is really dry, can't figure out how to even attempt this otherwise.

How many IR sights do the Russians have left?

[dan/california]

16 minutes ago, chrisl said:

How many IR sights do the Russians have left?

I don't know, but somebody ought to be trying to find out. If the answer is not many, move heaven and esrth to get everybody in the lead brigades latest generation stuff, an do this in the dark. The Bradleys and the PT-91s are good on this obviously. Can the Ukrainians train up to do this in the dark? FAST ENOUGH?  I am as ra ra on them s it is possible to be, but it is harder, and it does take more practice.

 

 

[Battlefront.com]

79th Mech put up a video on the 27th of Feb showing the destruction of 5 tanks and 7 BMPs in Marinka:

https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=133231762743931

Steve

[sburke]

8 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

79th Mech put up a video on the 27th of Feb showing the destruction of 5 tanks and 7 BMPs in Marinka:

https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=133231762743931

Steve

seems that is a weeks' worth of tank production.....  

Russia Is Losing Tanks X10 Faster Than It Can Make Them: Report (businessinsider.com)

[dan/california]

48 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

79th Mech put up a video on the 27th of Feb showing the destruction of 5 tanks and 7 BMPs in Marinka:

https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=133231762743931

Steve

Annoyingly cut up, but stuff went boom. The harder question is how does Ukraine do it better. I mean they will do it better, but they have to advance over the same pan flat fields. Against people that might occasionally be minimally competent, they will almost certainly be numerous, with artillery and ATGMs. The Russians sure as bleep lay mines by the hundreds of metric tons. The Ukrainians are going to have to do real breaching operations.

Bleep me. I sound like LLF...

Edited March 1, 2023 by dan/california