How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Beleg85]

1 hour ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Yanqui go home lol

That is gold. Would add, though:

-Fierce clashes broke out in the area of Gardening Shop in the center of Empalme as results of bold Mexican counterattack; it seems initial reports of US successes there were exaggarated. Blackwater CEO publicly accuses government of ammo shortages and threats he has "names" of bosses of General Dynamica, NGrumman and other ammo manufacturers guilty of concious sabotage of war effort.

[Battlefront.com]

18 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Probably he is best souce of info on the ground, but he mainly hangs out with 93rd, 30th and some territorials + Azov. Given that 46 Brig. (that is supposed to leading the counterattack along 17th Thank) arrived later into  the area, he may have less contacts there as he stated once.

But we should wait, it seems as very risky move- Russians have a lot of firepower at hand there. But you are right attack seems to be connected to flooding- Ukrainians probably try to create some artificial barrier as next line of defence, NW of Bakhmut. Mud season is coming closer every day, which can turn part of this terrain into marsh and help stabilize the front. Interesting development.

EDIT: Hangs out, not hand out

I understand that the information coming in from the front is still uncertain, however just looking at a map from a few days ago shows a clear vulnerability to counter attack from Ukraine.  Last week I even said that I hoped Ukraine had the force in the area to snip the advance off and create more problems for Russian forces in the north.  Given how worn out the Russians are, and evidence that they are having problems with artillery support, it really comes down to Ukraine having some relatively fresh forces to conduct an operation.  That is what I think we're all waiting to see confirmed!

Blowing the damn makes sense.  We saw how badly this affected Russian operations west of Kyiv while it was struggling to reorganize.  Not decisive on its own, but it probably contributed to Russia deciding further offensive action was not practical.  Hopefully we will see something similar here.

Steve

[chuckdyke]

2 hours ago, Vet 0369 said:

Nope, you mistake it for a shipment into Ukraine. It is actually a train load of looted Ukrainian tractors heading into Russia!

Double yellow lines is a US motorway

[Yet]

I wouldnt worry too much about Finland and Sweden. 

1- no actual threat (Thanks to UA)

2- enough NATO security 

3- if Turkey lets them in... who is then going to chair any peace negotiations that will need to take place sooner or later anyway...  China? Usa? Finland? Israel? Luxembourg? Hungary? Kazachstan? Japan?  .. at the moment every alternative sounds same hilarious.

[billbindc]

35 minutes ago, dan/california said:

This seems to be most/all of the people who do the daily update. Worth your time, thanks for posting.

Are you in the room...?

 

I do not appear at official functions...mostly because I'm not invited.

[Battlefront.com]

Back in January everybody was wondering if the increased Russian attacks in three clusters (Svatove-Kreminna in the north. Bakhmut as the middle of the center effort, and Vuhledar to the south) were shaping operations or the actual offensive.  I more convinced than ever that it was the full offensive.  Although fighting has not ceased in the north and south, it is pretty clear that any thoughts Russia had of making any significance headway towards taking Luhansk and Donetsk are over for the season.  They made little progress, suffered huge casualties, and now have the mud season creeping in to slow down all operations.

I am very curious about what Russia planned to achieve with this winter activity.  Were it's objectives modest, such as wearing down Ukraine's forces?  Did they really think they could make significant progress towards securing Luhansk and/or Donetsk?  Or did they simply attack without any real strategic vision in mind?  We have no way of knowing and likely won't know for a long time.

Here's a recent article from CNN about the International Legion, currently subordinated to the 72nd Mech in Vuhledar.

https://www.cnn.com/2023/02/23/europe/ukraine-foreign-fighters-vuhledar-donbas-intl/index.html

Steve

[sburke]

ISW explains why Lukashenko is going to China (yahoo.com)

China may try to use the agreements with Belarus to conceal violations of sanctions during the supply of weapons to the Russian Federation, analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) believe.

Source: ISW reports

Details: The ISW suggests that Alexander Lukashenko plans to meet with Xi Jinping, probably in order to help Russia and China avoid sanctions amid reports that China is considering providing lethal assistance to Russia.

The Institute recalled that Lukashenko announced plans to visit China from 28 February to 2 March and meet with Xi Jinping, probably to sign agreements on trade, investment, large-scale joint projects and other matters.

Quote: "Lukashenko's announcement of his planned visit coincides with reports that senior US officials assess that China is seriously considering selling combat drones, personal weapons, and 122 mm and 152 mm artillery shells to Russia.

Russian and Chinese officials have also reportedly developed plans for the shipment of drones to Russia under falsified shipping documents to avoid international sanction measures.

[Battlefront.com]

I have no doubts about it.  Belarus was used as a way around the 2014/2015 sanctions, so why not 2022/2023?

What should happen is the US put Belarus under the same sanctions as Russia.  Since Belarus is allowing Ukraine to be attacked from its soil, it's conceptually sound.  However, for whatever reason neither the US nor the EU seems interested in this angle.  The sanctions placed on Belarus so far have been quite limited and highly targeted at regime figures rather than the regime itself.

Steve

[sburke]

McCaul accuses Biden administration of ‘slow walking’ aid to Ukraine (yahoo.com)

Still worried about the GOP position?

Quote

 

House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Michael McCaul (R-Texas) slammed the Biden administration for its “slow-walk” on sending aid to Ukraine, adding that the move is dragging out the conflict, which is “precisely what Putin wants.”

During an interview on ABC’s “This Week,” McCaul told host Martha Raddatz that it is “unfortunate” that Biden is not sending F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine immediately.

 

 

Quote

 

McCaul also said he talked to Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Gen. Mark Milley regarding the MGM-140 Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) and the F-16s, which he said is not “off the table.”

“I think with enough pressure from Congress on both sides of the aisle, we can get into Ukraine what they really need to win this fight,” McCaul said. “Otherwise, what are we doing in Ukraine?”

McCaul’s calls for more aid to Ukraine echo last weeks sentiment, when he said he’s hopeful the U.S. will send more missiles and move to supply fighter jets to Kyiv.

“The longer they wait, the longer this conflict will prevail,” McCaul said last week during an interview on CNN’s “State of the Union” at the Munich Security Conference in Germany.

 

[dan/california]

5 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Back in January everybody was wondering if the increased Russian attacks in three clusters (Svatove-Kreminna in the north. Bakhmut as the middle of the center effort, and Vuhledar to the south) were shaping operations or the actual offensive.  I more convinced than ever that it was the full offensive.  Although fighting has not ceased in the north and south, it is pretty clear that any thoughts Russia had of making any significance headway towards taking Luhansk and Donetsk are over for the season.  They made little progress, suffered huge casualties, and now have the mud season creeping in to slow down all operations.

I am very curious about what Russia planned to achieve with this winter activity.  Were it's objectives modest, such as wearing down Ukraine's forces?  Did they really think they could make significant progress towards securing Luhansk and/or Donetsk?  Or did they simply attack without any real strategic vision in mind?  We have no way of knowing and likely won't know for a long time.

Here's a recent article from CNN about the International Legion, currently subordinated to the 72nd Mech in Vuhledar.

https://www.cnn.com/2023/02/23/europe/ukraine-foreign-fighters-vuhledar-donbas-intl/index.html

Steve

The ISW presentation billindc just put up went over this in GREAT detail. still going by the way. Hopefully the recording will be available, it is solid gold.

 

 

[DesertFox]

nvm

Edited February 26, 2023 by DesertFox

[Eddy]

6 minutes ago, dan/california said:

The ISW presentation billindc just put up went over this in GREAT detail. still going by the way. Hopefully the recording will be available, it is solid gold.

It's also available on YT here if that's more convenient:

I'm about half way through but so far it is well worth the watch

[dan/california]

It has the best rundown of the state of Russia's forces, and force generation efforts that I have seen. I think the best way to watch it would be with Jomni's latest set of maps in another window. Thet seem to generally agree, and Jomini has lot more detail on the map.

They are also in full agreement with my ongoing rant that Ukraine needs more help, and faster to win this thing this summer, instead of giving Putin eighteen months to find and train some semblance of a competent army.

Edited February 26, 2023 by dan/california

[sburke]

Russia stares into population abyss as Putin sends its young men to die (yahoo.com)

[NamEndedAllen]

1 hour ago, sburke said:

Still worried about the GOP position?

McCaul is one of the solid guys, and glad he is chair of an important committee.. But if you are talking about actual aid legislation in the House, yes of course. Remember the agonized voting for the Speaker?  The tiny majority of Republicans in the house? Five defections out of the 18 or so nay sayers many of whom openly embrace Putin or Russia…no aid for Ukraine. This party only puts legislation forward that will pass with its own party’s votes. So, yeah. You\ should be concerned about new billions for Ukraine passing the House, where spending legislation must originate. That’s the way the Congress works. I do think some legislation will continue to pass, but it will likely be both less in total and only after extended negotiations for concessions for the radicals whose votes are required. That’s what happens when the majority hangs by a thread. The leadership has very little power, and any handful of representatives hold a ton.

Edited February 27, 2023 by NamEndedAllen

[sburke]

10 minutes ago, NamEndedAllen said:

McCaul is one of the solid guys, and glad he is chair of an important committee.. But if you are talking about actual aid legislation in the House, yes of course. Remember the agonized voting for the Speaker?  The tiny majority of Republicans in the house? Five defections out of the 18 or so nay sayers many of whom openly embrace Putin or Russia…no aid for Ukraine. This party only puts legislation forward that will pass with its own party’s votes. So, yeah. You\ should be concerned about new billions for Ukraine passing the House, where spending legislation must originate. That’s the way the Congress works. I do think some legislation will continue to pass, but it will likely be both less in total and only after extended negotiations for concessions for the radicals whose votes are required. That’s what happens when the majority hangs by a thread. The leadership has very little power, and any handful of representatives hold a ton.

if the dems had voted for McCarthy it would have been a blowout on the first vote.  McCarthy only has to worry about votes where the Dems will vote against.  This isn't one of those.  Gaetz, Boebert and Greene may get some tv airtime but if the GOP house members want to pass Ukraine aid there is nothing to stop them.  A year ago the House voted 361-69 for a 1.5 trillion-dollar bill that included Ukraine aid.

Edited February 27, 2023 by sburke

[JonS]

6 minutes ago, NamEndedAllen said:

The tiny majority of Republicans in the house? Five defections out of the 18 or so nay sayers many of whom openly embrace Putin or Russia…no aid for Ukraine.

I must be missing something here. If all or most Dems vote for aid, plus - say - 50% Republicans, how can the remainder block them?

[sburke]

interesting statement on ISW broadcast - the trainers for new recruits and why they are being trained in Belarus is the trainers are Belarus military.  Yikes.

[chrisl]

6 minutes ago, sburke said:

interesting statement on ISW broadcast - the trainers for new recruits and why they are being trained in Belarus is the trainers are Belarus military.  Yikes.

Because the RU military already sent most of their trainers to die in Ukraine?

[dan/california]

46 minutes ago, JonS said:

I must be missing something here. If all or most Dems vote for aid, plus - say - 50% Republicans, how can the remainder block them?

The House of Representatives has a bunch of screwy rules. One of which is that the Speaker, and a committee controlled by the majority party, controls what comes up for a vote. The current speaker gave some of the people who like him the least seats on that committee to get elected. So the people who control what comes up for a vote may not be Ukraines biggest fans. The work around is called a discharge petition, which requires Approximately four to six Republicans to sign it, assuming all democrats are on board, and then vote for it more than once on the house floor. This would almost guarantee them a well funded primary challenge from the right wing of the Republican party. Hopefully Biden's team has already asked the ten most likely people what very nice country they would like to be the ambassador too. 

So yes it will probably get done, but it is fifty times harder than it ought to be.

Edited February 27, 2023 by dan/california

[sburke]

5 minutes ago, chrisl said:

Because the RU military already sent most of their trainers to die in Ukraine?

yep, they specifically highlighted seeing the training staff being dispatched to the front then showing up on the list of losses.

[dan/california]

 

[danfrodo]

17 minutes ago, dan/california said:

 

Is it just me, or is that the most punchable face on the planet?  Every time I see him I get this zombie like physical response "punch this", it's weird.

Edited February 27, 2023 by danfrodo

[JonS]

17 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

Is it just me, or is that the most punchable face on the planet? 

Oooh, that's a stiff competition. Piers Morgan? Junior? Richard Spencer? Shkreli? Rees-Mogg? So many to choose from ...

I think Oprah had this one right. "You get a punch in the face and you get a punch in the face and you get a punch in the face ..."

Edited February 27, 2023 by JonS

[sburke]

Former Senator Portman needs to get more airtime on regular news channels.