How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[DesertFox]

1 hour ago, panzermartin said:

Apart from balloons they are also strange exagonical things flying around. https://edition.cnn.com/2023/02/12/politics/unidentified-object-canada-alaska-military-latest/index.html

What is going on, aliens?  

 

 

[The_Capt]

4 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

There were some first hand reports from the Russian side saying their minefields, like everything else Russians touch, were chaotic and poorly documented.  I remember one guy saying they advanced straight into one of their own minefields because the unit that preceded them left no record of it.

Steve

Minefield recording is incredibly hard at the best of times.  In NATO there are reports that need to be filed and sent up the chain, and held for post-war clean up.  Problem is guys get killed in mid-process, reports get lost or destroyed.  And then there is the reality that the battlefield is not a static place.  Ground gets churned up, things get tossed around etc.  Add this to what has looked like a professional train wreck and zero adherence to LOAC and I seriously doubt the minefield record keeping by Wagner is "up to snuff".   

[Battlefront.com]

45 minutes ago, chrisl said:

This invasion has all the usual pacifists out calling their congresspeople demanding that we send tanks and missiles and all sorts of splody stuff to Ukraine.

It is the same in my personal experience.  Not a single left leaning, pacifist type I know thinks we should all sit around a campfire and sing Kumbaya.  Nope, they all want as much splody stuff over to Ukraine faster than one can put some free range hummus on cage free flatbread served on a cruelty free hemp plate.  Or somefink like that

Seriously, of all the many surprises this war has thrown at us, the almost universal shift of the pacifists to have some degree of support for arming Ukraine is near the top of my list.  Add to this the traditional "hawks" saying that we shouldn't send weapons abroad and what you get is a real life Bizarro World.

Steve

[danfrodo]

8 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Seriously, of all the many surprises this war has thrown at us, the almost universal shift of the pacifists to have some degree of support for arming Ukraine is near the top of my list.  Add to this the traditional "hawks" saying that we shouldn't send weapons abroad and what you get is a real life Bizarro World.

Bizarro world for sure.  I think the simple black & whiteness of this war, so very rare, makes it an easy choice even for folks that are generally skeptical of military involvements.  I was pro-afghan war and anti-iraq war but those were way more complicated than UKR war.  "do I want saddam dead? -- yes!  Are we lying about WMDs and potentially getting into a big disaster? -- yes!"  No dilemnas like that in this one.

I am completely flummoxed on how a big portion of those usually aggressive in foreign policy are now siding w a serial mass murdering, city destroying, world economy wrecking psychopath dictator.  I keep thinking there's some Putin payola underneath all the brainwashing going on, but that's just conjecture.  

Edited February 13, 2023 by danfrodo

[Battlefront.com]

17 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Minefield recording is incredibly hard at the best of times.  In NATO there are reports that need to be filed and sent up the chain, and held for post-war clean up.  Problem is guys get killed in mid-process, reports get lost or destroyed.  And then there is the reality that the battlefield is not a static place.  Ground gets churned up, things get tossed around etc.  Add this to what has looked like a professional train wreck and zero adherence to LOAC and I seriously doubt the minefield record keeping by Wagner is "up to snuff".   

Yup.  Like most things military, it's not like NATO can do things perfectly.  But at least that's what they strive for.  Russia?  Meh... much easier to put some mines down and get back to their main task... looking for washing machines.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

4 hours ago, LongLeftFlank said:

HeliosRunner seems of the view that Gerasimov's grand offensive has already shot its bolt, at least at the 'pincers' in the south (Vuhledar) and north (Kreminna).

Interesting to see that others have speculated that what has been going on for the last couple of weeks was not "shaping ops", rather it was the offensive itself.  Yet it's still not clear at all.

It could be that the grand offensive did call for "pincers", they tried, they failed, and now they will continue with the main offensive as a standalone frontal assault.  Perhaps shifted a little more north than originally planned.

One thing I think we can be assured of is that Russia doesn't cancel offensive operations simply because things aren't going according to plan.  Things have to be an utter disaster before they stop.

Separate from this, I think can be reasonably sure that Russia has saved up for a large missile/drone attack on Ukrainian infrastructure.  That is the best explanation for the relative calm in the past few weeks.  The missile/drone attack is likely and February 23/24 is the most likely time for it.

Steve

[billbindc]

19 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

It is the same in my personal experience.  Not a single left leaning, pacifist type I know thinks we should all sit around a campfire and sing Kumbaya.  Nope, they all want as much splody stuff over to Ukraine faster than one can put some free range hummus on cage free flatbread served on a cruelty free hemp plate.  Or somefink like that

Seriously, of all the many surprises this war has thrown at us, the almost universal shift of the pacifists to have some degree of support for arming Ukraine is near the top of my list.  Add to this the traditional "hawks" saying that we shouldn't send weapons abroad and what you get is a real life Bizarro World.

Steve

Personally, I don't find myself to be too surprised by support for arming Ukraine from many in the center/left vs that of the far left/far right. In the years leading up to it, there was something like a reactionary International forming with a predilection for Caesarism and Putin was seen as the epitome of their ideal. In that world, the dissenters were talking about Salazar's Portugal as a better model! And the parts of the far left supported that sort of thing because the real struggle is against the 'social fascists' (aka 'neo-libtards')  in the middle who defend the status quo. 

So...if you are at all moderate and can actually see that overturning the global order on behalf of Vladimir ****ing Putin is an evil idea there's only one moral and obvious practical thing to do. Putin helped quite a bit by pulling a slapstick version of Fall Weiss on Kyiv. Now to stick with the job and finish him. Slava, etc.

[dan/california]

I think this guy is making an insightful point. Wagner's level of full Nazi nutjob might have had the unintentional effect of getting it across to the average Russian mobik candidate that he REALLY doesn't want to go die in Ukraine.

[billbindc]

https://carnegieendowment.org/politika/89008

A perceptive take on Prigozhin here.

[dan/california]

6 hours ago, poesel said:

Ukrainian leaderships combination of Russian and Nato military exposure made them uniquely suited to fight this war.

1 hour ago, Lethaface said:

If true and Russia hasn't secretly found a way to effectively target Ukraine's AD using missile attacks, I'd suspect a lot of shot down airplanes. Let's hope UKR AD has enough missiles and operational assets for a large saturation strike by missiles and planes. 

I suspect the Russian air force is under huge political pressure to TRY something. They have pretty much failed epically so far in this war.

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

Massive dumb bombing of civilian centres will likely lead to western conventional escalation - so more tanks/IFVs, AD, ATACMS and a rapidly expanded target list…oh and the most dangerous weapon of all, money.

Clearly we don’t get Russia but I would say the cognitive vacuum is mutual.

It is this kind of cognitive vacuum that gets resolved in a shooting war. Which we are having,unfortunately.

1 hour ago, billbindc said:

US State Department also just made a similar statement about Russia. Seems pretty clear that there's a broad expectation of accelerated seizures of Western citizens in these countries.  

 

Never underestimate the ability of the clueless tourist types to do epically STUPID things. The missionaries who got kidnapped in Haiti a while back being exhibit A.

[Beleg85]

https://www.newsweek.com/russia-ukraine-war-kadyrov-chechnya-poisoned-commander-1780711

My my...Apti Alaudinov, one of commanders of Akhmat is said (by Kadyrov's telegram himself) to be poisoned few days ago, by a way of opening a letter with envelope.

https://sanctions.nazk.gov.ua/en/sanction-person/22095/

Hmm... FSB? Or maybe he was simply not well after eating some unfresh pilaw. As everything connected to kadyrov, it has absurdity attached to it.

46 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Interesting to see that others have speculated that what has been going on for the last couple of weeks was not "shaping ops", rather it was the offensive itself.  Yet it's still not clear at all.

It could be that the grand offensive did call for "pincers", they tried, they failed, and now they will continue with the main offensive as a standalone frontal assault.  Perhaps shifted a little more north than originally planned.

One thing I think we can be assured of is that Russia doesn't cancel offensive operations simply because things aren't going according to plan.  Things have to be an utter disaster before they stop.

Separate from this, I think can be reasonably sure that Russia has saved up for a large missile/drone attack on Ukrainian infrastructure.  That is the best explanation for the relative calm in the past few weeks.  The missile/drone attack is likely and February 23/24 is the most likely time for it.

Steve

Yes, definitelly we are in very odd time now. It does seem they started to gather more troops in sorrounding areas, most of them used before 24.II.2022:

https://twitter.com/konrad_muzyka/status/1625046168475512832

Perhaps entire offensive is planned to be prolonged and in several stages.

 

Btw. 20-22.II Biden will be in Poland, some new batches of help to UA are expected. We may look for some special events made by Russians at roughly that time, but it will not be deciding of course.

Edited February 13, 2023 by Beleg85

[Battlefront.com]

20 minutes ago, billbindc said:

Personally, I don't find myself to be too surprised by support for arming Ukraine from many in the center/left vs that of the far left/far right.

For sure.  Putin has been worshiped by the right as a "strong leader" and what not.  Culture wars being a huge part of it.  But I'm talking about the borderline bloodlust amongst otherwise garden variety pacifists.  Having them be supportive of Ukraine is expected as the cause is just, but the usual response from this crowd is to provide Humanitarian aid, get the UN involved, try to broker a ceasefire, etc.  Never did I expect a child of the 60s telling me we need to send more Javelins and HIMARS, by name for Pete's sake, to Ukraine in order for there to be peace.

Steve

[Ts4EVER]

2 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Having them be supportive of Ukraine is expected as the cause is just, but the usual response from this crowd is to provide Humanitarian aid, get the UN involved, try to broker a ceasefire, etc.  Never did I expect a child of the 60s telling me we need to send more Javelins and HIMARS, by name for Pete's sake, to Ukraine in order for there to be peace.

Steve

That's because this war is obviously different from the colonial adventures people are used to protesting against.

[dan/california]

2 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

For sure.  Putin has been worshiped by the right as a "strong leader" and what not.  Culture wars being a huge part of it.  But I'm talking about the borderline bloodlust amongst otherwise garden variety pacifists.  Having them be supportive of Ukraine is expected as the cause is just, but the usual response from this crowd is to provide Humanitarian aid, get the UN involved, try to broker a ceasefire, etc.  Never did I expect a child of the 60s telling me we need to send more Javelins and HIMARS, by name for Pete's sake, to Ukraine in order for there to be peace.

Steve

I think Putin has managed to make this type of person realize that in Ukraine exactly these kind of people were on Putins execution list. It has concentrated their minds wonderfully.

[dan/california]

 

Quote

 

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/02/13/world/russia-ukraine-news

Ukraine Tells Aid Groups to Leave Bakhmut

 

AFU might have decided that holding it is costing more than it is worth, finally.

[Battlefront.com]

3 minutes ago, Ts4EVER said:

That's because this war is obviously different from the colonial adventures people are used to protesting against.

For sure that is a big part of it.  However, I'm talking about people who fundamentally believe "violence is not the answer", no matter how poorly that belief system works in this world.  I'm thinking of one individual now who sent his kid to a Quaker school for his primary education.  He follows this war very closely and believes we need to do whatever it takes to defeat Putin.  Although concerned about nukes, he doesn't see that as a reason to not keep arming Ukraine.

Intellectually this all makes sense to me.  People who have had easy targets for their anti-war philosophy in the past have been presented with a real world situation that they recognize won't work in this instance.  I get that.  It's the vehemence of the support that is a surprise to me.

When 9/11 happened these were the people that supported going after Al Qaeda, but at the same time made a point that we (the West) brought this on ourselves by behaving so horribly to Muslims.  This war?  The pacifist types I know didn't buy into the "NATO expansion is to blame" or "Ukraine's been waging war against peace loving Russians for years now" or "yes it's bad, but we can't risk being nuked" lines of BS coming out of the Kremlin.  In fact, the Kremlin has been pushing these sorts of talking points explicitly to sway people away from supporting Ukraine.

Anyway, we're all talking about the same thing in the same way so I'll be moving on now

Steve

[danfrodo]

Behind paywall, but if you can get there it's interesting.  RU ex-convict prisoners talk about their experiences w Wagner.  Leaves me wondering how much better treatment is for mobiks.  Mobiks being regular RU citizens, I would think that this kind of horrific abuse would filter back to RU and maybe start to cause some anger.  But I've thought that before and nothing happens.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/13/world/europe/ukraine-russia-prisoners.html

 

[Jiggathebauce]

59 minutes ago, billbindc said:

Personally, I don't find myself to be too surprised by support for arming Ukraine from many in the center/left vs that of the far left/far right. In the years leading up to it, there was something like a reactionary International forming with a predilection for Caesarism and Putin was seen as the epitome of their ideal. In that world, the dissenters were talking about Salazar's Portugal as a better model! And the parts of the far left supported that sort of thing because the real struggle is against the 'social fascists' (aka 'neo-libtards')  in the middle who defend the status quo. 

So...if you are at all moderate and can actually see that overturning the global order on behalf of Vladimir ****ing Putin is an evil idea there's only one moral and obvious practical thing to do. Putin helped quite a bit by pulling a slapstick version of Fall Weiss on Kyiv. Now to stick with the job and finish him. Slava, etc.

Gonna take the big risk of putting myself out here as maybe the resident 'far left' lurker in this forum and say that you're pretty spot on. Myself and comrades I organize with know that Putin is a far right demagogue who jails socialists, that socialists in Russia have been jailed in particular because of their opposition to the war, and that socialists within Ukraine by and large are in the TDF and the UA. As one Ukrainian socialist interviewed put it recently, supporting the arming of Ukraine by NATO is not disimilar to supporting the arming of Vietnam by the Soviet Union/China, despite onerous things done by those states in Hungary and Prague, etc. 

There are concerns about fascism in Ukraine, but i think it's outweighed by the fascism of Russia.   That, and I'm pretty sure the worst of the UKR far right got killed in Mariupol. Most acknowledge that a Russian win in Ukraine will make the world more reactionary, and capitalism worse, particularly for people there. as for the tankies, they make it clear by all of their stances that they are cheerleaders for inter imperial conflicts, just on the side of the underdog oligarchs. Really they're just fascists. 

 

Before the war I was skeptical of Russia actually being stupid enough to invade and I didn't trust US intelligence if they said their mothers loved them as children. I have thus had the honor of being called a Moscow shill before the war, and currently get called a CIA shill/fed by those tankies. Two extra paychecks from competing Intel agencies  would be nice.

 

Edited February 13, 2023 by Jiggathebauce

[Kinophile]

31 minutes ago, Ts4EVER said:

That's because this war is obviously different from the colonial adventures people are used to protesting against.

Well... it's literally framed as colonial in rationale and justification by Putin himself,  although without using the word itself (I think). 

Edited February 13, 2023 by Kinophile

[The_Capt]

14 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

For sure that is a big part of it.  However, I'm talking about people who fundamentally believe "violence is not the answer", no matter how poorly that belief system works in this world.  I'm thinking of one individual now who sent his kid to a Quaker school for his primary education.  He follows this war very closely and believes we need to do whatever it takes to defeat Putin.  Although concerned about nukes, he doesn't see that as a reason to not keep arming Ukraine.

Intellectually this all makes sense to me.  People who have had easy targets for their anti-war philosophy in the past have been presented with a real world situation that they recognize won't work in this instance.  I get that.  It's the vehemence of the support that is a surprise to me.

When 9/11 happened these were the people that supported going after Al Qaeda, but at the same time made a point that we (the West) brought this on ourselves by behaving so horribly to Muslims.  This war?  The pacifist types I know didn't buy into the "NATO expansion is to blame" or "Ukraine's been waging war against peace loving Russians for years now" or "yes it's bad, but we can't risk being nuked" lines of BS coming out of the Kremlin.  In fact, the Kremlin has been pushing these sorts of talking points explicitly to sway people away from supporting Ukraine.

Anyway, we're all talking about the same thing in the same way so I'll be moving on now

Steve

Violence is not the answer, but it makes a helluva point in the argument.  All war is a violent argument - a collision of irreconcilable collective human certainties. 

[danfrodo]

4 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Violence is not the answer, but it makes a helluva point in the argument.  All war is a violent argument - a collision of irreconcilable collective human certainties. 

Good take on this.  I look at this thing as an intended rape victim fighting back against the rapist.  I don't really care how much violence is req'd to make the rapist stop especially considering the rapist could simply leave the situation and avoid being injured.  The intended victim might be the most pacifist, non-violent person on earth with lots of totally pacificist non-violent friends.  But none of those friends would say "oh don't betray our ideals and violently oppose the rape!".  They would all say to do whatever it takes to make him stop and if nearby would also use violence to make him stop.  Option B is they would say "sorry, but I am non violent.  Ouch, that sure looks like a bad situation, I really feel for you." 

To me UKR war is that black & white.  Putin is trying to rape & enslave & rob Ukraine and we are the friends who are nearby.

[AlsatianFelix]

U.S. Politics. I said this in May on this forum, "U.S. politics will have an impact on Ukrainian strategy if the war is not settled by the 2024 election. The state of US politics is such that, whichever position one party takes, the other party stakes out the exact opposite. Regardless how Ukraine polls now with Americans, the two parties will corral their voters into the paddock they're supposed to be in."

 

American partisan politics has been nothing but Star Bellied Sneetches since 1988.

[womble]

16 minutes ago, AlsatianFelix said:

U.S. Politics. I said this in May on this forum, "U.S. politics will have an impact on Ukrainian strategy if the war is not settled by the 2024 election. The state of US politics is such that, whichever position one party takes, the other party stakes out the exact opposite. Regardless how Ukraine polls now with Americans, the two parties will corral their voters into the paddock they're supposed to be in."

 

American partisan politics has been nothing but Star Bellied Sneetches since 1988.

I'm no American, but I'm pretty sure you're wrong to make such an absolute statement. Sure, there are elements of each side which will instinctively take whatever contrarian position stands against their opposition's stated position, but, to date, the support for the war has, in political circles looked pretty bipartisan to an outsider. Even some "arch-Republicans" who I'd instinctively adopt contrary positions to have drawn, instead, reluctant appreciation.

So, without wanting to indulge in any debate about the rights and wrongs of positions held by either side (cos that way lies madness and unwanted attention from BFCElvis after his team came off second best), I'd suggest you have another look at the overall record of each side on this particular issue. I think you'll find that it's perhaps the most unifying matter that Congress has had to deal with for a couple of decades...

[Maciej Zwolinski]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

Culture wars being a huge part of it.  But I'm talking about the borderline bloodlust amongst otherwise garden variety pacifists. 

It is the same phenomenon. The same things which make Putin a confusing enemy for the, let's say "contrarian populist right" make him the perfect villiain for the "liberal left". Militarist, homophobic,macho*, proponent of traditional values**, White, Christian***. He can be hated from the bottom of all the bleeding hearts without any remorse. For all supporters of the Ukraine, it looks like this time the tendency of the US to treat international politics as extension of its internal culture wars has worked for the good.

 

*Obviously in those shirtless photos he does not actually look macho. But it is the intent which counts. 

**In propaganda only. In fact Russia has extremely high abortion and divorce rates. 

***See above. Russian Orthodox Church looks like another branch of FSB.

Edited February 13, 2023 by Maciej Zwolinski
found a better word

[Haiduk]

Upgraded more light version of Maxim MG in UKR service