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How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?


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@sburke

Colonel of police Aleksey Grachyov, commander of "Patriot" OMON riot police detachment of Saratov oblast. Was killed on 13th of October in Oktiabrskiy setllement near Belgorod, Russia when the camp was shelled. 

Lt.colonel of police Andrey Golovin, chief of engineer-sapper group of "Patriot" OMON riot plice detachment of Saratov oblast. Was killed on 13th of October in Oktiabrskiy setllement near Belgorod, Russia when the camp was shelled. 

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Russian PsyOps has started in Russian social media as if large-scale offensive will be launched on 21st of Feb and Russian army received an order to destroy Ukrianian military potential in three days up to 24th Feb. 

On other hand some UKR military and expert twitters consider that culmination of Russian offensive can be launched 22nd or 26-28th Feb and can include huge salvo of missiles. part of them will have a task to destroy as much UKR AD as possible and then Russian aviation will attack largest UKR cities with dumb bombs to cause mass destructions and casualties. This "show" mostly should make impressions on West, that rise many pacifistic voices that "Ukraine never can win Russia, we must stop supply weapon to them and we must finish this war by Korean variant immediately in order to stop suffering of civil population"

Edited by Haiduk
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2 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Russian PsyOps has started in Russian social media as if large-scale offensive will be launched on 21st of Feb and Russian army received an order to destroy Ukrianian military potential in three days up to 24th Feb. 

On other hand some UKR military and expert twitters consider that culmination of Russian offensive can be launched 22nd or 26-28th Feb and can include huge salvo of missiles. part of them will have a task to destroy as much UKR AD as possible and then Russian aviation will attack largest UKR cities with dumb bombs to cause mass destructions and casualties. This "show" mostly should make impressions on West, that rise many pacifictic voices that "we must end this war by Korean variant immediately in order to stop suffering of civil population"

A hundred or so ATACMS fired preemptively would do wonders. 

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11 minutes ago, dan/california said:

A hundred or so ATACMS fired preemptively would do wonders. 

But we have no one... 

Though... Today this video has appeared. Nobody can't say exactly wht is this - maybe the same "secret" kamikadze-drone with 1000 km range. But some experts recognize in it new aerial target for AD training RZ-60. which was offered to MoD as far as in 2019 by private company "Ramzay", but militaries didn't interest in its features. Maybe it was upgraded to strike purposes, who knows... 

But this drone suspiciously similar to Iranian drone Arash-2 %)

Upper photo - RZ-60, lower - Arash-2

Зображення

 Дрон-камікадзе серії Arash, також відомий, як Kian

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4 minutes ago, Letter from Prague said:

In part due to Russian destabilization, the government resigned. The new PM is going to be a former Interior Minister who is a hard ***, very pro Western and EU. Moscow got the opposite of what they wanted out of their efforts.

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48 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

@sburke

Colonel of police Aleksey Grachyov, commander of "Patriot" OMON riot police detachment of Saratov oblast. Was killed on 13th of October in Oktiabrskiy setllement near Belgorod, Russia when the camp was shelled. 

Lt.colonel of police Andrey Golovin, chief of engineer-sapper group of "Patriot" OMON riot plice detachment of Saratov oblast. Was killed on 13th of October in Oktiabrskiy setllement near Belgorod, Russia when the camp was shelled. 

Зображення

 

Interesting.  First announcements of deaths on Russian soil from this war that I've seen.

Steve

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8 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Interesting.  First announcements of deaths on Russian soil from this war that I've seen.

Steve

First was Millerovo airfield strike with Tochka-U on 26th Feb, when several pilots and airfield engineers were killed. But officially in cocial media info about died servicemen appeared only in summer as I can recall. And such officilaly and semi-offiically recognized casualties becausae of missile and arty strikes, drone attacks (Engels and Shaikovka airbases - 3-4 KIA) were enough. In Russian media also were qustions to government either families of killed border guiards and other servicemen, formally killed not in SVO zone will receive own 7 millions or not

Edited by Haiduk
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2 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

First was Millerovo airfield strike with Tochka-U on 26th Feb, when several pilots and airfield engineers were killed. But officially in cocial media info about died servicemen appeared only in summer as I can recall. And such officilaly and semi-offiically recognized casualties becausae of missile and arty strikes, drone attacks (Engels and Shaikovka airbases - 3-4 KIA) were enough. In Russian media also were qustions to government either families of killed border guiards and other servicemen, formally killed not in SVO zone will receive own 7 millions or not

Thanks!  Yeah, I should have said "Russian border territory".  I expect that Russia has an incentive to keep the losses along the border quiet because there is no high profile way to retaliate as Russia pretended to do for something like Engels strike.  That they might be trying to avoid death benefits is something I hadn't thought of, but I should have ;)

Steve

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49 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Russian PsyOps has started in Russian social media as if large-scale offensive will be launched on 21st of Feb and Russian army received an order to destroy Ukrianian military potential in three days up to 24th Feb.

It seems every year we will have new "3-day Special Military Operation".

image.png

Edited by Beleg85
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11 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Thanks!  Yeah, I should have said "Russian border territory".  I expect that Russia has an incentive to keep the losses along the border quiet because there is no high profile way to retaliate as Russia pretended to do for something like Engels strike.  That they might be trying to avoid death benefits is something I hadn't thought of, but I should have ;)

Steve

Indeed border areas of Belgorod and Kursk oblast are continously under UKR fire. I just don't write about this because this minor actions. Russians shell our border territories with arty, mortars, MLRS, sometime aviation and recon groups. We respond with the same. Of course, this not every day, but 1-2 time for week this is usual thing.  We also hit Russian power line objects near the border, so sometime Russian towns, especially Shebekono and Tiotkino are sit without electricity some time. 

Also recently was an article and interview in Guardian with sabateurs from volunteer unit "Bratstvo" ("Brotherhood") - marginal political party of Dmytro Korchinskiy, scandal figure, which faith a philosofy of raising of nation via continous turmoils %) Though, their unit under command of Intellugence Directorate (GUR) successfully operates inside Russia, so many unexpected explosions and fires, especially in border zone - with big probability is their work. Some time ago one group of "Bratstvo" of four men was ambushed and eliminated on Russian territory by FSB.  

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15 hours ago, kevinkin said:

Has anyone come across an article on how the UA is evacuating and caring for its most serious wounded? For example, is the environment such that helicopters can be used to transport soldiers to well staffed field hospitals having the resources to complete major surgery? I wonder if NATO can provide assistance in this? Perhaps the medical facilities are staged close to the fighting and long range transport is rarely needed. I ask because I don't know. And given how brutal this war is, this would seem to be a big part of its history. Many unnamed heroes behind the lines. It's hard to imagine the stress on the medical system this war must be. We so often discuss weapons procurement, but where are the IV bags, antibiotics, pain killers coming from? I might be able to answer if this were a nice tidy post cold war conflict. But sadly we are in new/old territory now. 

Check out the ukraine_tbic channel, a Canadian volunteer medic in Ukraine - https://www.youtube.com/@ukraine_tbic

He seems to be mostly involved in evac from collection points to stabilization points. From 20:40 in the following video he talks about the death of Pete Reed and how he was setting up a stabilization point with support from foreign NGOs, who also provide supplies.

 

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48 minutes ago, Sojourner said:

VDV?

"смотри мама, я умею летать..."

Haha . It looks like they intend to use tanks as SVBIEDS, just some starshina forgot to put enough explosives inside. ☝️

 

Now, that thing is spreading fast:

https://euromaidanpress.com/2023/02/12/ukraine-downs-aerial-reconnaissance-vehicle-balloons-in-dnipropetrovsk-oblast/?swcfpc=1

Edited by Beleg85
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4 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Strikes for the last week on Russian ammo dumps, HQs, milityary bases, barracks.

I didn't meant about this, but already two days UKR heavy struck Melitopol and it vicinity.

Зображення

Thanks for this. Good to see a recent overview of these actions. The focus on primarily the several Russian pushescan obscure what the AFU is doing elsewhere.

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ISW's report for yesterday focused on Russia's attempts to regain some initiative in the information war.  It's main observation is that Russia's ability to spin false narratives has been seriously degraded by Western actions taken since 2014 (most notably shutting down Russia Today's foreign operations), which has caused Russia's hybrid warfare model significant damage.  To make up for it ISW points out to more subtle, focused efforts to undermine the West's support for Ukraine:

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-february-12-2023

Oddly enough, after months of not having to deal with arguments promoted by the Kremlin, we just had one here.  I'd agree with ISW that what Russia is doing is far more effective than what they started out with, but it doesn't seem to be having a tangible impact on Russia's ability to "win" this war.  Though as the war drags on more people in the West are going to be susceptible to Kremlin BS designed to undermine support for Ukraine.

Steve

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Dmitri Alperovitch talks to David Bramlette, a former U.S. Ranger and Green Beret combat veteran, who has recently returned from fighting with the Ukrainian Foreign Legion in the Kharkiv, Donetsk, and Luhansk oblasts for 10 months. David shares his experiences of the war, why he went over to risk his life for a foreign country, his impressions of the Russian and Ukrainian forces, and what happens when Americans get wounded in Ukraine.

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10 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Russian PsyOps has started in Russian social media as if large-scale offensive will be launched on 21st of Feb and Russian army received an order to destroy Ukrianian military potential in three days up to 24th Feb. 

On other hand some UKR military and expert twitters consider that culmination of Russian offensive can be launched 22nd or 26-28th Feb and can include huge salvo of missiles. part of them will have a task to destroy as much UKR AD as possible and then Russian aviation will attack largest UKR cities with dumb bombs to cause mass destructions and casualties. This "show" mostly should make impressions on West, that rise many pacifistic voices that "Ukraine never can win Russia, we must stop supply weapon to them and we must finish this war by Korean variant immediately in order to stop suffering of civil population"

Or start sending jet fighters and other offensive weapons to finally convince those bastards we also mean business.

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11 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Russian PsyOps has started in Russian social media as if large-scale offensive will be launched on 21st of Feb and Russian army received an order to destroy Ukrianian military potential in three days up to 24th Feb. 

I wanted to post some witty comment here, but I'm out of words.

Це ж було вже.

Edited by kraze
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