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How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?


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7 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

What do others think?

All things being equal,  think both sides would rather wait for the other to go over to the offensive and counterattack any gains. However, Russia is probably more motivated to attack than Ukraine because of internal reasons. The internal dynamics on both sides are different since Ukraine's civilians are dying and infrastructure is just working enough. But normal life is near impossible. Unfortunately, the same can't be said of Russian civilians. If merely surviving against NATO is enough to quell the warmongers, then Russia can stay put. Probably, their best option given the state of their ground forces. So the question becomes which side can't live with the status quo - if not now, later on. The dynamics of this are fascinating. Two gun slingers waiting to see who draws first. But the clock is running faster for Russia and that's to their disadvantage. Yet, many are thinking the newer NATO stuff is being readied for offensive action against a defensive minded RA.

https://warriormaven.com/russia-ukraine/surface-to-air-missiles-rockets-ukraine-aid-package

The second half argues for more traditional mass simply because of the current correlation of forces. But the UA will still have to innovate tactically to keep losses down. Can you perform laser surgery with a M1 tank formation? Or is it all about mass and the momentum that they bring to combat?

Edited by kevinkin
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https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/21/opinion/russia-ukraine.html

Times editorial on the state of the war. Best position they have taken in the entire course of the war. They state the war is 100% Putins fault. They imply in about five different ways that if Putin won't quit the war, the Russian people should quit him, and sooner rather than later. Worth a read.

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8 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Yes to all of this.  However, I will say that Germany was very happy to lead Europe's economic policy during times of peace.  I'm not sure how much it wanted to, but when it was called upon during the debt crisis it certainly showed strong leadership.  This is perhaps an example of "be careful what you wish for" or "you can't have your cake and eat it too".

Steve

I  wouldn't call what Germany did during the debt crisis as "leadership". And if it was "leadership", then it was the wrong one. Germany has been wrong so many times since 1870 that I fear an active Germany much more than a shy, hesitant one. 

By the way, I don't understand so much insistence on delivering Leopards 2. Leopard 2 from different countries are not equal to each other. Some, like the Spanish and Swedish Leopards 2, which are largely manufactured in those countries (60% of the Leopard 2E is produced in Spain) mount systems and armor  that are different from the German ones. On the other hand, the American Abrams are standard. It makes more sense from a logistical and efficiency point of view to send American Abrams than a bunch of Leopards 2s from different countries, each one different from the other.

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1 minute ago, DesertFox said:

AFAIK not at present. The Poles are starting right now.

They may very well already being trained. Like anything else there is a lot more they won't tell us. Maintenance for the Bradley it takes five months to train specialists for this vehicle. Easy enough to drive for the crew they need better trained mechanics unless my guess is the specialists are there.

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4 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

I don't get the LEO2 German bashing. They have almost a smaller army than my country, the excuses from the US side about M1s being expensive and tough to maintain is equally bs. 

The solution is simple, they can make their own tanks. Britain is of the hook by supplying 12 tanks that is smart politics. France supplies something which is not a tank at all. (doesn't have a stabilizer) Only Sweden makes a domestic product. If you don't manufacture tanks nobody can accuse you of not supplying them which is smart too.

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9 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

I don't get the LEO2 German bashing. They have almost a smaller army than my country, the excuses from the US side about M1s being expensive and tough to maintain is equally bs. 

It is not bs. You just really have to get to the weeds to see the Leo is the better option. Of course other options can be made to work if Leo doesn't work out

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1 minute ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

It is not bs. You just really have to get to the weeds to see the Leo is the better option. Of course other options can be made to work if Leo doesn't work out

Does it mean the U.S. Army has not maintenance facilities in Europe for their Abrams? 🙄

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1 minute ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

It is not bs. You just really have to get to the weeds to see the Leo is the better option. Of course other options can be made to work if Leo doesn't work out

The chart is somewhat misleading. I think there are numerous gigantic US military bases in Europe that provide most basic Abrams maintenance as we speak. 

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Just now, panzermartin said:

The chart is somewhat misleading. I think there are numerous gigantic US military bases in Europe that provide most basic Abrams maintenance as we speak. 

Once upon a time I was participating in CMTC in Hohenfels (1994), There surely are.

Microsoft Word - EQ_Overseas_Hohenfels.doc (osd.mil)

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16 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

The chart is somewhat misleading. I think there are numerous gigantic US military bases in Europe that provide most basic Abrams maintenance as we speak. 

 

What factories for the production of spare parts for Abrams tanks in Europe do you know?

Or do you think American military bases are engaged in the production of spare parts?

Edited by Zeleban
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33 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

I don't get the LEO2 German bashing. They have almost a smaller army than my country, the excuses from the US side about M1s being expensive and tough to maintain is equally bs.

 

Perhaps I missed the earlier discussion, but does Jordan does not operate almost 400 Challenger I's and want them to replace anyway?

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Here's another angle to the Leopard debate:

I'd say that there's some merit the argument they US is eyeing European countries that up to this point were (or were expected to) buy German armor. US had a huge success in Poland, and might very well score a contract in Romania.
On the other hand, it's hard to perceive Germany as a good ally if it bans the countries that operate DE armor from sending it to Ukraine, citing fear of loosing them as customers as the reason for the denial. It's a kind of "damned if I don't, damn if I do" situation I guess. 
But IMO it is really hard to feel much sympathy for DE and it's industry here, I'll even admit to a bit of schadenfreude. The only way out of this conundrum (for which probably the window of opportunity has closed already) would be if DE took the lead on the issue, sent what Leo1 they had, presented some kind of a roadmap for Leo2 deliveries and to boost tank production and replace the vehicles that are being sent to UA. Perhaps proposed some industry cooperation scheme on top of that to internationalize the project.
This I assume wasn't on the cards due to other political reasons, and oh boy RM and KMW will pay the price for that now. The "finding out" follow-up to "scholzing around".

 

 

Also, a cope-cage done right:

 

Edited by Huba
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7 minutes ago, Zeleban said:

 

What factories for the production of spare parts for Abrams tanks in Europe do you know?

Or do you think American military bases are engaged in the production of spare parts?

Not production, but that should be a secondary problem. The maintenance and training facilities in Poland are in place, if I understand this article correctly:

To prepare Polish troops to utilize the vehicle, the Abrams Tank Training Academy was established at Biedrusko Training Area in Poznań. The US Army already provided 28 Abrams tanks for the purpose.

“We are pleased to have been chosen to provide this critical armored capability to our allies in Poland,” vice president of global strategy and international business development at General Dynamics Land Systems, Chris Brown, said.

US Army Taps General Dynamics to Build 250 Abrams Tanks for Poland (thedefensepost.com)

Edited by DesertFox
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9 minutes ago, Zeleban said:

 

What factories for the production of spare parts for Abrams tanks do you know?

Or do you think American military bases are engaged in the production of spare parts?

So when US invaded and occupied Iraq, Afghanistan etc (even further away from Europe) with hundreds of M1 tanks it had problem to maintain them because the factories were in US? Doesn't make sense.  Or maybe Iraq and Talibans were more important than a world shaping conflict in Europe. 

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1 minute ago, panzermartin said:

So when US invaded and occupied Iraq, Afghanistan etc (even further away from Europe) with hundreds of M1 tanks it had problem to maintain them because the factories were in US? Doesn't make sense.  Or maybe Iraq and Talibans were more important than a world shaping conflict in Europe. 

 

Were there Leopard factories in Iraq and Afghanistan? Please note that ha logistics across the ocean will have to be paid to Ukraine in the form of promissory notes. Lend Lease is not a free thing

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