How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[billbindc]

On 1/12/2023 at 7:20 PM, billbindc said:

You couldn't find a more perfect illustration of how Putin's ruling methodology...pitting sectors of the system against each other competitively...is gutting Russia's ability to fight the war in an efficient and effective fashion. Clausewitz said that "war is not merely a political act" but this is war as only a political act. 

More grist for the mill: 

 

 

[Harmon Rabb]

Ex-Russian president suggests Japanese PM should ritually disembowel himself

Medvedev saying crazy things again...In other news dog bites man.

Edited January 14, 2023 by Harmon Rabb

[kevinkin]

https://news.yahoo.com/russia-tycoons-fear-tightening-kremlin-080014614.html

Let's see if this is true and to what degree. Peal away the elites and all P has left is his chef, salt and sadly nukes. 

some of Russia’s richest now worry they could see their holdings seized by rivals seen as more loyal or even nationalized, according to people familiar with their thinking. 

The growing fears highlight how the invasion, which the Kremlin initially hoped would deliver a lightning victory, has become a campaign without end that’s transforming all aspects of Russian society irreversibly. The lifestyle that came to be known as ‘dividend aristocrats’ – tycoons who lived richly in recent years on huge profits from their companies – is gone forever, top executives said.

The state will take whatever it thinks it needs for the war effort, said a longtime business lobbyist. If in the past, tycoons could work the phones and their contacts in government to protect their interests, those tools now don’t work, he said.

Edited January 14, 2023 by kevinkin

[Beleg85]

30 AS90 should be coming along Challengers from Britain.

 

[Huba]

14 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

30 AS90 should be coming along Challengers from Britain.

 

Wishful thinking on my side, but I'd love to see NATO countries sending whole units, preferably brigades worth of equipment, taking on themselves training, supporting and maintaining them in the field. It might not simplify the technical aspect of logistics, but would cut all the political discussions and hot potatoeing responsibility. Also it would encourage some healthy competition between nations, that would be beneficial to everybody. I can't see Macron allowing "his" unit to be pushed to secondary roles as it is not combat ready due to any reason. PL would be a superpower here I guess, having sent more than division worth of equipment already, and preparing to send the second with PT91s. On the other hand, smaller nation like the Nordic Countries could bunch up to field a single brigade.
Back to reality though, as mentioned previously, I have very high expectations for the next week and the Ramstein format meeting.

Edited January 14, 2023 by Huba

[sburke]

6 minutes ago, Huba said:

Wishful thinking on my side, but I'd love to see NATO countries sending whole units, preferably brigades worth of equipment, taking on themselves training, supporting and maintaining them in the field. It might not simplify the technical aspect of logistics, but would cut all the political discussions and hot potatoeing responsibility. 

NATO boots on the ground in any capacity is a non-starter.

[FancyCat]

Just now, sburke said:

NATO boots on the ground in any capacity is a non-starter.

A nitpick, the U.S confirmed personnel monitoring weapon shipments are in Ukraine.

[Huba]

26 minutes ago, sburke said:

NATO boots on the ground in any capacity is a non-starter.

I only meant materiel and training - basically taking responsibility to build and maintain UA brigade in the field, staffed with UA soldiers, but trained, equipped and supplied by a specific NATO country.

 

In other new, according to Kuleba, in January Poland will make commitments more important than the Leopards. Which can mean either all the PT91s (unlikely in this context), Mig-29 (hopefully, and most likely in my opinion) or perhaps Patria AMV in large numbers. Or our sole Kilo sub 

 

Edited January 14, 2023 by Huba

[Beleg85]

28 minutes ago, Huba said:

I can't see Macron allowing "his" unit to be pushed to secondary roles as it is not combat ready due to any reason. PL would be a superpower here I guess, having sent more than division worth of equipment already, and preparing to send the second with PT91s. On the other hand, smaller nation like the Nordic Countries could bunch up to field a single brigade.
Back to reality though, as mentioned previously, I have very high expectations for the next week and the Ramstein format meeting.

Not gonna happen due to NATO not sending troops even to conduct training- at least official ones, not contractors. Unless you mean entire brigades trained on western poligons. On other note there were discussion here that experence of Polish tankers who change seats from Soviet pieces to Leos2 may be very valuable to Ukrainians and significantly shorten their training process. This was reportedly not easy task in the past and they were forced to improvise on some procedures.

[Huba]

@Beleg85 Look up my post just above.

In the meantime the floodgates of equipment are opening unbelievably quick. Have Prince Harry lead the detachment while you're at it

 

 

Edited January 14, 2023 by Huba

[Battlefront.com]

Yes, NATO training will continue to happen outside of Ukraine.  That will not change.  What has changed is the scope of training and where the training is taking place.  Germany has not objected to training being done on its soil, BTW.  Here's an article that came out yesterday about the expanded training by US personnel at Grafenwhör:

https://www.stripes.com/branches/army/2023-01-13/army-grafenwoehr-ukraine-8749503.html

I know Bradley training has already started, but I think on a small scale.  Other forms of training have been going on for months, including Battalion and above stuff.

Steve

[dan/california]

A whole bunch of Swiss business interests and practices need to be subjected to vastly increased scrutiny. 

[Battlefront.com]

2 minutes ago, Huba said:

@Beleg85 Look up my post just above.

In the meantime the floodgates of equipment are opening unbelievably quick. Have Prince Harry lead the detachment while you're at it

 

 

Wow.  And we know exactly how far off the ground the Ukrainian pilots are going to fly them

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

1 minute ago, dan/california said:

A whole bunch of Swiss business interests and practices need to be subjected to vastly increased scrutiny. 

Gee, I wonder if all those unmarked Swiss bank accounts have any Russian money in them?

Steve

[FancyCat]

 

[Huba]

5 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Wow.  And we know exactly how far off the ground the Ukrainian pilots are going to fly them

Steve

If this is officially announced, I'm 100% positive that Western aircraft will follow soon and in numbers too.

[Offshoot]

21 minutes ago, Huba said:

@Beleg85 Look up my post just above.

In the meantime the floodgates of equipment are opening unbelievably quick:

 

 

This is a Mirror "exclusive" quoting "a senior defence source", so take it with a grain of salt. As the information comes from an "insider", no other, reputable media sources have picked it up.

Apparently, the UK defence minister will update parliament on Monday, so wait until then - https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/uk-has-ambition-send-tanks-ukraine-pm-sunak-tells-zelenskiy-2023-01-14/

On the subject of Apaches though, this thread has discussed before lessons that Western military will take from the Ukraine war. Some of these are already being acted on - https://www.army.mod.uk/news-and-events/news/2023/01/new-apache-trains-to-fights-on-the-modern-battlefield/

[Beleg85]

12 minutes ago, Huba said:

In the meantime the floodgates of equipment are opening unbelievably quick. Have Prince Harry lead the detachment while you're at it

It's Mirror so wouldn't trust them till I see it. But Prince Harry could indeed benefit from going back to military, he grew soft lately.

I think attack helicopters seems least likely as donation. But there were also some excerpts from one of Kuleba interviews from today that Leos2 will not be heaviest things coming from Poland in near future...perhaps finally Migs? Really Rammstein will be interesting. And with today's terrorist attacks Russians of course added oil to the fire.

Rare photo from inside of hit power plant, look at the scale of destruction:

https://bigkyiv.com.ua/vorozhi-rakety-vluchyly-v-obyekty-krytychnoyi-infrastruktury-u-5-oblastyah-u-tomu-chysli-na-kyyivshhyni-ye/

[Harmon Rabb]

48 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Gee, I wonder if all those unmarked Swiss bank accounts have any Russian money in them?

Steve

If you can't trust a Swiss Banker, What's the world come to?-James Bond.

https://getyarn.io/yarn-clip/03ddbe19-919b-42a6-984f-a6e1f90c4f93

Edited January 15, 2023 by Harmon Rabb

[Butschi]

55 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Germany has not objected to training being done on its soil, BTW

That is hardly surprising, though. Germany usually treats US bases as extraterritorial. It was quite the controversy back in the day when it became known that the drone war, that was perceived even by many politicians as in violation of international law, was conducted via Ramstein. It was then easier to pretend that this was technically not Germany so there was nothing politicians could do.

[dan/california]

40 minutes ago, Offshoot said:

This is a Mirror "exclusive" quoting "a senior defence source", so take it with a grain of salt. As the information comes from an "insider", no other, reputable media sources have picked it up.

Apparently, the UK defence minister will update parliament on Monday, so wait until then - https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/uk-has-ambition-send-tanks-ukraine-pm-sunak-tells-zelenskiy-2023-01-14/

On the subject of Apaches though, this thread has discussed before lessons that Western military will take from the Ukraine war. Some of these are already being acted on - https://www.army.mod.uk/news-and-events/news/2023/01/new-apache-trains-to-fights-on-the-modern-battlefield/

I won't believe the Apache article until this is formally read out on floor of Parliament. But there is a very strong military incentive to test MODERN attack helicopters in this war. Because if Apaches can't do something useful against the current state of Russian air defenses then every dollar currently earmarked for attack helicopter programs needs to be diverted to drones and the Precision Strike Missile, or similar systems.

Edited January 15, 2023 by dan/california

[Huba]

A very helpful chart:

[Kinophile]

1 hour ago, Beleg85 said:

It's Mirror so wouldn't trust them till I see it. But Prince Harry could indeed benefit from going back to military, he grew soft lately.

I think attack helicopters seems least likely as donation. But there were also some excerpts from one of Kuleba interviews from today that Leos2 will not be heaviest things coming from Poland in near future...perhaps finally Migs? Really Rammstein will be interesting. And with today's terrorist attacks Russians of course added oil to the fire.

Rare photo from inside of hit power plant, look at the scale of destruction:

https://bigkyiv.com.ua/vorozhi-rakety-vluchyly-v-obyekty-krytychnoyi-infrastruktury-u-5-oblastyah-u-tomu-chysli-na-kyyivshhyni-ye/

Plus Harry was a ground pounder, not RAF. But he did get pounded to the ground by a member of the RAF so there's that >:) 

[The_Capt]

2 hours ago, Huba said:

@Beleg85 Look up my post just above.

In the meantime the floodgates of equipment are opening unbelievably quick. Have Prince Harry lead the detachment while you're at it

 

 

Ok now this could be a game changer, if confirmed.   We have yet to see tac aviation make an impact on the battlefield, in fact many think it might be dead.  But the Apache should come with Hellfires which can hit out past 10km, link that into the existing UA ISR advantages and this thing could become a night terror for the RA.  No idea how long to train up people on these things but the fleet will likely be small.  

[LongLeftFlank]

Reasonably long steady shots, give a good sense of the Bahmut battlescape (1 minute only, 2nd minute is blank screen)

https://samf.substack.com/p/makiiva-and-bakhmut-the-impact-of

There are not many places that can accommodate large numbers of troops with some provision for food, sleep, and hygiene, so it is not surprising that they end up in public buildings such as schools. 

P.S. Clever.