How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Battlefront.com]

6 hours ago, Zeleban said:

Drones can be used for more than just dropping grenades

NICE!  UAV deliveries is something we've not discussed at all in this massive thread.  It is obviously something that we'll be seeing a lot more of in the years to come.  It's not efficient for most forms of resupply, but when you need to get a spare part, radio, or something else specialized (OK, sugar too!) then these drones could be the #1 method for solving the problem.

The NATO forces are all experimenting with cargo carrying UGVs because they can do a lot more than UAVs, including acting as weapons platforms instead.  However, I do know that there is interest in rotary based UAVs that can mimic a helicopter's capacity.  But from what I can tell such a vehicle is getting attention only recently compared to UGVs.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

6 hours ago, Kraft said:

It rubs me the wrong way when the fighting there is being downplayed as unimportant tactical development, or that an imminent counter will kick Wagner right back out.., a lot of soldiers have died defending it and the videos yesterday were pretty gruesome.

Agreed.  This is what caused me to question Ukraine's decision or inability to do something to stabilize the situation better.  If I were the Ukrainian commander, I would not care if my soldiers were killing 10 Russians for every one lost if the losses were as high as this.  Let Russia play the attrition game, don't force me to do the same.

This is why I say my hope is that Ukraine is deliberately doing what they are doing because they have a solution in motion that isn't quite ready yet.  I'd still like to see more artillery diverted to help this sector defend itself, but we've seen posts here that may indicate the reason is a shortage of shells/rockets is causing Ukraine to prioritize them for whatever operation they have planned next.

Whatever the reason for Ukraine losing so many troops so quickly for such a useless piece of ground... it sucks.  The previous situation we can compare to is Sievierodonetsk, but in that case the city had operational (if not strategic) value.

Steve

[Yet]

Could this be an issue? 

if we send 50 patriots, 100 HIMARS long distance, 1000 bradleys and 300 Leo2's , then Ukr gets an army that is even scary for the EU. They can start their own industry to supply. No stopping them if they march to Moskow, Belarus, Moldavia or any other direction. by keeping it scattered, Ukraine is and will stay dependant on NATO logistics, repairs, shells etc. 

Actually i wonder if all this militairy aid is -give- or if it is partially -borrow as long as nessesairy-

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, Bulletpoint said:

Different cultural and political situations though, and both are mindful of their voter base. Biden can base his decisions on recent polls saying 65% of Americans support sending weapons to Ukraine, so it's a bit easier for him to be a strong, decisive leader.

Which is one reason Obama was a terrible leader in many ways.  There was a window of opportunity where American leadership could have made a big difference in Syria.  At a minimum keeping the Russians out of it.  But Obama looked at the polls, saw that there was just about zero domestic support to do anything meaningful, and so he didn't push for anything that would have made a difference.  In a little bit of dark humor, the Republicans slammed him for his lack of leadership even though he was doing exactly what they wanted done (i.e. nothing).  Which meant that Obama didn't have political support for policies the opposition was in favor of.  Just imagine if Obama did something they weren't in favor of.

In Obama's defense the problem wasn't just polling in America and the lack of political will of the legislative body, because it was exactly the same in Europe.  The only thing that Europeans really had a strong opinion about was the refugee crisis that came about because nothing was being done to solve the cause of it.

Ukraine is different for many reasons, the biggest of them is that Ukraine directly borders Europe (sorry Turkey, you're not included!) and this isn't a civil war.  That and few in the West had a bone to pick with Assad, but most have a long list of grievances against Putin's regime.  And those that didn't, such as Germany, now do thanks to Putin's bad decision making.

Steve

[Kinophile]

Good to see this,  to contrast or smooth over Zaluzhny celebrating Bandera,and other stuff like it. 

Friends forgive and move on. 

Edited January 12, 2023 by Kinophile

[Twisk]

Re politics:

Politicial leader need to pay attention to polls (in a Democracy) but they aren't beholden to them and can drag the population along in some situations. If I am recalling my history correct Roosevelt was ahead of the U.S. population about participation in WW2 which stood the United States in good stead once the war came to its shores.

 

Politicians are elected to lead after all.

[FancyCat]

 

 

 

[FancyCat]

https://www.politico.eu/article/britain-germany-us-battle-tanks-ukraine-war/

Quote

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba told German public broadcaster ARD on Wednesday he was convinced that Germany would sooner or later agree to send Leopards.

“Even if Germany has certain rational arguments for not doing it, Germany will still do it at a later date,” Kuleba said. “We have already seen this with the self-propelled howitzers, with the IRIS-T air defense system, and most recently with the Marders and Patriot [air defense] systems.”

Kuleba added: “It’s always a similar pattern: First they say ‘no,’ then they fiercely defend their decision, only to say ‘yes’ in the end. We are still trying to understand why the German government is doing this to itself.”

I want to emphasize the contrast between Merkel and Scholz by bringing up Merkel's response to the refugee crisis, and then compare it to Macron's response. 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/commentisfree/2021/sep/21/refugee-crisis-two-myths-angela-merkel

Macron, heavily criticized for being partial to Putin and Russia, nethertheless is able to make improvements with standings with Ukraine with concrete actions, the past is forgiven, the actions of the present outweigh the past. Frustrating to see Macron improve but not Germany. Merkel's record on the refugee crisis is deeply mixed, but her speech was effective in casting a positive image of the idea Germany invited refugees to it, despite the record being quite mixed. 

[billbindc]

11 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

 

 

 

"The machine is turning and now only exhaustion will stop it."

Alan Morehead, North Africa, 1941

[Taranis]

"Soledar, January 11, 2023. LIBKOS / AP"

[Zeleban]

Bakhmut direction, battle of Ukrainian border guards with Wagnerites. At the end of the video, a wounded border guard says that they stormed the room where the Wagnerites were holed up. Before the assault, they fired at the Wagnerites from the AGS-17. They saw that they were leaving, and when he went to the window to clear the room, he received a bullet. The bullet pierced the magazine of his machine gun and wounded him in the leg.

[kevinkin]

43 minutes ago, Twisk said:

polls (in a Democracy)

We are finding that the science of polling is becoming more an art over the past 10 years. You can't rely on accurate responses in flash e.g. overnight polling. Opinions change with the weather. However, given enough time to use the right experimental methods (which can take weeks), polls do have value assaying big issues where opinions don't change overnight. To use daily polling to adjust campaign messaging is a waste of money. It's an inside the beltway thing. 

[Beleg85]

2 hours ago, dan/california said:

Ammo not vehicles, but otherwise exactly what you asked for.

There are several other workshops  in one of the countries supporting UA ().  I heard also about 122 mm and 152mm production lines, but their output is unkown. Likely very much below needs, rather a curiosity than something Ukraine could stand on regarding long-term industry capacity.

There are also several drone cooperations that are doing interesting things as well, literally students of engineering + former soldiers from several countries joining together to design, 3D-print and test these machines in conditions close to battlefield ones. They are keeping low profile because law forbids playing with such toys, but police in this country was instructed not to be terribly thorough about their passion... But of course granade here and there on Russian neck is not something that could win a war. One need real developed industry to produce fighting vehicles, and this one Ukraine have large problems with. One can repair and even upgrade tankd or APC in dispersed workshops, but to produce them from new would requie relocations of epic proportions.

1 hour ago, Kinophile said:

Friends forgive and move on.

Nice political gestures, yet they are about 1918-1921 period and fighting between different nations (and factions) for Lviv, far less controversial than ethnonationalism that developed afterwards. This have nothing to do with living historical memory of later entire OUN paradigm or normalization of genocidal ideology that is taking place within Ukrainian official structures. I am all for reconcilliation and all of that, but it must be build on historical truth and not historical politics in the first place. Right now we have just politicians doing gestures, trying to put down unnecessary fire made lately again by Verhovna Rada. Not to mention that current meta among Ukrainian officials (not even mentioning local level) is still to block or at minimum make it very difficult for investigators working to find remains of people massacred in the genocide, to at least give them proper burial; let alone commemorating anybody or drawing conclusions whom to not put on banners.

But let's leave this topic for now, it is rather irrelevant for discussions taking place.

 

Pretty well put concerns from Nielsen about structure of Russian mercenaries. He is right that Wagner is only one of them... I admitt first time I hear that Patriots pmc may be owned by Shoigu. Interesting perspective of outsourcing violence to different groups each with its own connections, however I think we shouldn't overblow significance of Russian mercenary "market"- it is not free trade after all, but just licensed state entrepreneurship.

 

Edited January 12, 2023 by Beleg85

[FancyCat]

 

Hey, maybe Germany might announce it once the 2nd mobilization is announced. Also, good point noted here, Russia is showing no sign of de-escalation or diplomatic overtures or anything to even hit Scholz on for "gunning ahead" and threatening Russia. 

[Harmon Rabb]

19 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

 

Hey, maybe Germany might announce it once the 2nd mobilization is announced. Also, good point noted here, Russia is showing no sign of de-escalation or diplomatic overtures or anything to even hit Scholz on for "gunning ahead" and threatening Russia. 

Now that Russia is mobilizing, blatantly terror bombing civilians and annexing all territory unfortunate enough to be occupied into the Russian Federation. Short of the use of weapons of mass destruction which I think we have discussed enough here. How can Russia "escalate" this war anymore on their end? 

Not a rhetorical question, I'm interested in some ideas which unfortunately could become a reality in this war this year.

[Bulletpoint]

39 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

Hey, maybe Germany might announce it once the 2nd mobilization is announced.

Would make sense.

Instead of Russia saying "We have to mobilise more men because Nato is now sending tanks to Ukraine", it could be "We now have to send tanks because Russia is escalating by mobilising more men".

Edited January 12, 2023 by Bulletpoint

[dan/california]

10 minutes ago, Harmon Rabb said:

Now that Russia is mobilizing, blatantly terror bombing civilians and annexing all territory unfortunate enough to be occupied into the Russian Federation. Short of the use of weapons of mass destruction which I think we have discussed enough here. How can Russia "escalate" this war anymore on their end? 

Not a rhetorical question, I'm interested in some ideas which unfortunately could become a reality in this war this year.

They are throwing everything they have at Ukraine. They don't seem to want to trigger an automatic Article 5 by attacking supply bases in Poland. I really think the one one thing they could do that would at least take a while to trigger an article 5 response is attacking undersea gas pipelines and communication cables around Europe. Russia would of course deny doing it and have their proxies turn it up to eleven screaming that Ukraine did it to pull NATO into the war. I don't think this works, either Article 5 would be invoked, or perhaps Ukraine suddenly has a bottomless supply of ATACMS to make Western displeasure very clear. When you are launching your second mass mobilization, and hoping, MAYBE, to find a a 40 year old rifle and helmet for the new cannon meat, you have expended your good options.

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, Twisk said:

Re politics:

Politicial leader need to pay attention to polls (in a Democracy) but they aren't beholden to them and can drag the population along in some situations. If I am recalling my history correct Roosevelt was ahead of the U.S. population about participation in WW2 which stood the United States in good stead once the war came to its shores.

Very correct.  He started preparing the US for war by appointing the right people for the job and giving them the green light to put together a plan to help Britain (immediately) and for rapid mobilization (near future, if needed).  Checking Wikipidia for a date... July, 1940.  Quote from Wiki:

Overcoming the opposition of much of the military establishment, who doubted Britain's ability to remain in the war against Germany, Roosevelt pursued policies designed to maximize arms transfers to Britain. In July 1940, Roosevelt appointed two interventionist Republican leaders, Henry L. Stimson and Frank Knox, as Secretaries of War and the Navy, respectively. Both parties gave support to his plans for a rapid build-up the American military, but the isolationists warned that Roosevelt would get the nation into an unnecessary war with Germany.

This is the sort of thing Scholz COULD be doing, but is not.  So I'm with the people here that are critical of Scholz more because he's not directing German policy, but instead being dragged along without articulating a reason why he's resistant.

1 hour ago, Twisk said:

Politicians are elected to lead after all.

Exactly.  And a leaders should not be afraid of suffering an election defeat for doing the right thing.  There was some clear examples of this in the US recently where some members of Congress knowingly took a position that would almost certainly cause them to lose the next election.  They did it anyway because they felt it was the right thing, they lost, and yet have no regrets.  This is the difference between a politician with integrity and one that bends with the wind explicitly for keeping his/her job.

  

52 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

We are finding that the science of polling is becoming more an art over the past 10 years. You can't rely on accurate responses in flash e.g. overnight polling. Opinions change with the weather. However, given enough time to use the right experimental methods (which can take weeks), polls do have value assaying big issues where opinions don't change overnight. To use daily polling to adjust campaign messaging is a waste of money. It's an inside the beltway thing. 

Absolutely spot on.

With that perspective, however, the polling for support of various intervention options in Ukraine has gone on long enough by enough pollsters to be reliable enough to base policy on.  And it shows that the US is still largely in favor of doing what it takes to see Ukraine win.  Broadly speaking, of course, since when the question of funding or length of funding comes up the numbers can be different.

Steve

[FancyCat]

Forcing Belarus to enter the war and invade Ukraine is definitely a option below nuclear escalation. Is it stupid? Yes, extremely so but still a option.

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, FancyCat said:

 

 

 

Taking this at face value as 100% accurate...

The cancelling of vacations for federal employees is consistent with earlier reports that the next wave would target government workers.  We discussed it here at the time and IIRC the consensus was it was an acknowledgement that they have run out of "low hanging fruit" to go after.  Federal employees are easier to grab because the government has all the information it needs to secure them plus the ability to use things such as their pensions as leverage.

The last line on the second page of the article suggests that recently released conscripts will be targeted.  This is not surprising at all and is, in fact, predicted.  Automatically mobilizing the current conscripts is still, apparently, a no-go option as it would cause massive social unrest the day Putin signs the order.  But going after recently released conscripts here and there won't be nearly as bad.  Because the Russian population is in denial about the whole war, this tactic might work. 

Soooooo... what does this tell us about the state of the Russian military?

I think we can safely conclude that Russia doesn't feel it has enough manpower for 2023, but not why.  It depends on how much offensive activity they think they will engage in between now and the end of the year.  If they plan on a massive effort, then they may consider their current forces sufficient for defensive operations.  If they are planning on only minor offensive efforts, that indicates they view their current forces as insufficient for defensive operations.  My guess is, despite the major waste of mobiks in the past few months, they feel they have enough to defend.  Which means they are seeking to build up a large force for a summer offensive.

I don't know how it is that Russia can be truly prepared to arm, equip, and train an expansion on this scale.  It seems, at best, they might create a large light infantry force because I don't see where they are going to get the thousands of vehicles they need to make the force mechanized or even motorized.  Because of that, this new force they are building is likely viable only to defend or to cause attrition of Ukraine's forces.  It won't be taking large chunks of Ukrainian territory.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

14 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

Forcing Belarus to enter the war and invade Ukraine is definitely a option below nuclear escalation. Is it stupid? Yes, extremely so but still a option.

It would require both Lukashenko and Putin to be stupid.  So far, I'd say Lukashenko has been playing things rather smart.  Relatively speaking.

Steve

[kraze]

27 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

Forcing Belarus to enter the war and invade Ukraine is definitely a option below nuclear escalation. Is it stupid? Yes, extremely so but still a option.

Belarus hasn't entered the war yet? Good. Irpin and Bucha is just a bad dream then. Missiles and drones they launched at us are also just a fruit of my imagination I guess.

[The_MonkeyKing]

Great BMP hunting vid:
longish format GoPro, international forces

Includes BMP-2M taking NLAW to the face with only a mobility kill. Also spot the wild DP-28 between the M4s with ACOGs

Edited January 12, 2023 by The_MonkeyKing

[FancyCat]

2 minutes ago, kraze said:

Belarus hasn't entered the war yet? Good. Irpin and Bucha is just a bad dream then. Missiles and drones they launched at us are also just a fruit of my imagination I guess.

I'm referring to Belarusian manpower as well on the front lines.

A reminder about how unreliable the MoD is.

 

[Kinophile]

https://kyivindependent.com/news-feed/german-minister-berlin-shouldnt-oppose-transfer-of-polish-leopard-tanks-to-ukraine

@Butschi insights on this guy?