How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[kevinkin]

• Another summary article today:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/craighooper/2022/12/26/ukraine-converts-219-billion-in-us-military-surplus-into-fearsome-force/?sh=4142de85370a

Ukraine supporters, when agitating for more and better weaponry point toward Ukraine’s quick exploitation of the 38 U.S. supplied High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems, or HIMARS. But these front-line assets are largely “fire-and-forget” platforms, and, as export items, their effectiveness depends more on the end-user’s prowess in finding, reporting and targeting relevant enemy assets.

That is why the U.S. has put a lot of emphasis upon modern command and control assistance. Command post vehicles, including well over 80 different radars of various types, jamming gear, tactical communications systems, SATCOM terminals and surveillance equipment helped Ukraine plug critical capability gaps. And yet, while these tactical tools are high-demand and are, in many cases, considered relatively modern equipment, the U.S. has plenty to offer.

• Naval warfare article that sort of reads a bit like the ground warfare conducted by UA leadership:

https://www.usni.org/magazines/naval-history-magazine/2022/december/nimitz-way

Rear Admiral Bradley Fiske, who said that “there is no sharp dividing line” between strategy and tactics and that the difference between them is “the strategist sees with the eye of the mind, while the tactician sees with the actual eye of the body.” During World War II, Nimitz balanced nurturing leadership with strategic artistry; he “saw” with both of these eyes, coupled tactical outcomes to strategic goals, and became a genius who “does not follow the rules… [but instead] invents them.”

- I found the underlined passage new to me. Successful operations required both eyes on the ball. 

Edited December 27, 2022 by kevinkin

[Butschi]

3 hours ago, _Morpheus_ said:

Some people within German Coalition also don't understand some Scholz decisions related to Ukraine:
https://www.rnd.de/politik/verteidigungspolitikerin-strack-zimmermann-kritisiert-ukraine-politik-wir-haben-keine-strategie-M7OSM52H6BG2XM2U56MGFJULYM.html

She is just a member of the parliament without official function, though. That someone disagrees with the party line is hardly news worthy.

[Blazing 88's]

18 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Thank you ) Orthodox and Greco-catholics celebrate in Ukraine on 6-7th Jan, because we have difference between secular (Gregorian) and church (Julian) calendars. So, despite all churches celebrate on 25th Dec in secular world we have two weeks of difference. But in Ukraine since past year a discussion has started about western choice demands from churches switching to Gregorian calendar and 25th together with 7th was claimed as an official holiday. This year brought huge support for Christmss on 25th, mostly because "do not have any common with Russia", so Orthodox Church of Ukraine and Greco-Catholic churches made a statement they will establish a workgroup in order to develop proper decisions up to 2025 and prepare own people. Alas, many even pro-Ukrainian believers, especially in western Ukraine roughly stick for 7th Jan, because "this is our tradition", though they just don't want understand why this difference appeared and that their church really celebrates Christmass on 25th, but according to "old style". 

Religion in Ukraine is a part of political life, because more than 60% relate themselves to Christians, so it is matter what words theese people can hear from priests. 

We have two Orthodox churches - pro-Russian UOC MP (Ukrainian Orthodox Church of Moscow Patriarchy) and pro-Ukrainian OCU (Orthodox Church of Ukraine), recognized by Konstantinopol Patriarch in 2018, which caused effect of exploded bomb in Russia, because church, subordinated to Moscow was one of element of influence of Russia on Ukraine and keeping it in own orbit. UOC MP still have huge influence in Ukraine not only among usual people, but also among politics and officials. Now SBU raiding and their churches and finds there tons of Russian symbolics, anti-Ukrainian, antisemitic and stupid conspiracy books and other materials, issued by Russian church. 

Also we have Greco-Catolic church, combining Orthodox  rite and subordinating to Pope.  Recently it  considered like mostly western ukrainian phenomenon, but in last years it spread own parishes far to the east. Greco-catholic church in western Ukraine in own time has played the same role that Catholic church in Poland, keeping national identity and spirit. 

Also we have Catholic community, most of their believers are in western Ukraine among ethnic Poles, but in last years Catholic community grows and on other territory, especially in Kyiv. My wife,for example is catholic and works in Catholic Institute, so we are celebrating two Christmass with our parents )

That is why my Christmas tree always has come down anywhere after Jan. 7th (mom's side is Ukrainian Catholic). Takes on even more meaning this Christmas.

Cheers all!!

 

[poesel]

3 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Slight taken - and highly inaccurate assessment to boot.

First off we are not just talking about “electronics” we are talking about the entirety of Russian trade

Nope - we were specifically talking about electronics. Russia's GDP is between Canada and Italy. If any of these countries would in the future only buy the electronics from China and no one else, that would create some local turbulences but no long term adverse effects globally. That is the point I wanted to make here.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_GDP_(nominal)

3 hours ago, The_Capt said:

As for Canada, we do about .5 trillion dollars in trade with the US per year.  If that all walked over to China I am sure it would register as a “blip”.  The shift in oil and gas alone would likely freak everyone out even with the size of the US economy.

The trade between the USA & Canada is a bad comparison, because that is a huge volume. Only topped by the USA & China, and then China is just slightly bigger than Canada. Russia has no one with that kind of deep relationship.

[poesel]

13 minutes ago, Butschi said:

She is just a member of the parliament without official function, though. That someone disagrees with the party line is hardly news worthy.

She's the head of the German parliament defense committee (Verteidigungsausschuss des Deutschen Bundestages). Also in the steering committee of her party, FDP, which is part of the current government.

So, not just a member of parliament, but someone with a bit of influence.

[dan/california]

4 hours ago, _Morpheus_ said:

Some people within German Coalition also don't understand some Scholz decisions related to Ukraine:
https://www.rnd.de/politik/verteidigungspolitikerin-strack-zimmermann-kritisiert-ukraine-politik-wir-haben-keine-strategie-M7OSM52H6BG2XM2U56MGFJULYM.html

 

1 minute ago, poesel said:

She's the head of the German parliament defense committee (Verteidigungsausschuss des Deutschen Bundestages). Also in the steering committee of her party, FDP, which is part of the current government.

So, not just a member of parliament, but someone with a bit of influence.

There are clearly quite a few Germans who Understand that Scholz's attempt to find a middle way makes less than no sense. You would think the Russians blowing up their own gas pipelines would get that across. But he is simply immovable. If his own party/coalition is the problem he should resign and let someone else get on with it. 

[dan/california]

Good video, pretty solid tank infantry coordination.

[A Canadian Cat]

50 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Good video, pretty solid tank infantry coordination

Near the end of the clip the guy with the camera hits a tree right in front of him with a round. Gave me a chuckle.

Are we sure this is combat footage and not training?

[dan/california]

2 minutes ago, IanL said:

Near the end of the clip the guy with the camera hits a tree right in front of him with a round. Gave me a chuckle.

Are we sure this is combat footage and not training?

All I know is what is in the post. It could well be training. There wasn't a lot of incoming. If it is training though, that is a good sign in and of itself. 

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, akd said:

Kamikaze drones with RPG warheads:

 

Those RPG mounted suicide drones should be VERY effective against BMPs.  Way better than the various grenade bombers.  Problem is, of course, you only get one shot per drone.  Then again, if the average life of a drone is 3 flights then it's not a huge reduction in capabilities when you're assured that 1 flight + 1 hit = 1 kill.

The bit that shows the BMP kill sack is impressive work.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, dan/california said:

Good video, pretty solid tank infantry coordination.

Yup, that looks to be good tactical employment of infantry.  Kinda strange to see an intact forest.

Seems this might be from west of Kreminna.  Certainly the footage is from this winter as it's obviously cold and there is some snow flakes coming down at the end.  But the footage could have been from a couple of weeks ago.  Is there snow on the ground there at the moment?

Which reminds me, there were reports a few days ago of Ukrainian forces getting into Kreminna's outskirts.  Anybody hear anything since?

Steve

[Vanir Ausf B]

Some type of T-80, I believe. Much faster reverse gear than the T-72.

1 hour ago, dan/california said:

Good video, pretty solid tank infantry coordination.

 

[akd]

45 minutes ago, IanL said:

Are we sure this is combat footage and not training?

Incoming fire is heard at 2:10, right before the cameraman ducks and says “faster” (I think).

Edited December 27, 2022 by akd

[kevinkin]

45 minutes ago, IanL said:

not training?

I thought the same just viewing it now.

[Battlefront.com]

Nice article in Washington Post about Ukraine's difficulties keeping Russian "trophies" in service.  A lack of parts and a centralized system for tracking and making them available means a lot of nearly functional vehicles are sitting in repair shops and not at the front.  It also mentions the problems with Western equipment often having to go back to Poland (and further) to get fixed.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/12/27/ukraine-russia-tanks-military-vehicles/

Steve

[dan/california]

58 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Nice article in Washington Post about Ukraine's difficulties keeping Russian "trophies" in service.  A lack of parts and a centralized system for tracking and making them available means a lot of nearly functional vehicles are sitting in repair shops and not at the front.  It also mentions the problems with Western equipment often having to go back to Poland (and further) to get fixed.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/12/27/ukraine-russia-tanks-military-vehicles/

Steve

Ukrainian logistics people must be in a continuous state of losing their minds. Just trying to keep oils, greases, and transmission fluids sorted for their menagerie of a vehicle fleet would drive a person crazy. 

Edited December 27, 2022 by dan/california

[akd]

Vice News report from Bakhmut:

 

Edited December 27, 2022 by akd

[Butschi]

5 hours ago, poesel said:

She's the head of the German parliament defense committee (Verteidigungsausschuss des Deutschen Bundestages). Also in the steering committee of her party, FDP, which is part of the current government.

So, not just a member of parliament, but someone with a bit of influence.

Sure, she has some influence. Still, being the head of a committee is just something like a moderator. It doesn't give extra power. It is no office, so in that sense she is an ordinary member of parliament.

It is also not the first time she voiced her opinion and her influence is clearly not enough to change the course the government takes.

Edited December 27, 2022 by Butschi

[pintere]

Looks like Ukraine‘s gonna have to wait for it’s winter counteroffensive. So far there doesn’t seem to be any weather cold enough to freeze the ground coming up in the near future.

https://m.dailykos.com/stories/2022/12/27/2144024/-Ukraine-and-Europe-Weather-Update-Warm-Right-Into-January

Edited December 27, 2022 by pintere

[The_Capt]

4 hours ago, poesel said:

The trade between the USA & Canada is a bad comparison, because that is a huge volume. Only topped by the USA & China, and then China is just slightly bigger than Canada. Russia has no one with that kind of deep relationship.

No disagreement there, but you brought it up.

4 hours ago, poesel said:

Nope - we were specifically talking about electronics. Russia's GDP is between Canada and Italy. If any of these countries would in the future only buy the electronics from China and no one else, that would create some local turbulences but no long term adverse effects globally. That is the point I wanted to make here.

Well you may have been talking about electronic specifically but I am pretty sure LLF was making a much broader point:

Specifically this part here gave it away:

"IMHO, over the long term, Russia's embrace of the Dragon is going to have much bigger consequences for the world than either Taiwan/SCSea or Ukraine, or even the future of Russia itself as a Kremlin-ruled concern. 

China will at long last control (even via RU clients) the sheer quantities of resources commensurate with its customary place in the world (i.e. approximately 30% of world GDP).  From a pure strategic resource supply standpoint (and I am setting aside climate issues and consequences here), it will achieve parity with the US without needing to overcome US ocean dominance.

The 'pen to write that global playbook' is Made In China, guys."

I would suggest we are talking about a geopolitical shift that may land in China's favour in all of this post-conflict.  I am not sure if this is entirely true but the size of the entire Russian economy overall is not small, particularly energy.  I mean seriously the world is not going to pivot on Russian electronic imports/exports but it isn't like we can narrowly sanction this one minor industry after Bucha and go back to buying cheap gas - that would be really weaselly and essentially serve as a passive endorsement of Russia behaviour in this war. 

I mean seriously how does that even unfold?  "Russia you have unilaterally invaded another nation illegally, committed continuous egregious violations of the Law of Armed Conflict and threatened global stability on a scale not seen since the 1960s."

"Our response is to sanction your electronics industry which amounted to a pre-war grand total of about $42B in exports/imports out of a $1.77T economy - so about 2.3%.  We hope you learned your lesson, now turn the gas pipes back on."....??

https://tradingeconomics.com/russia/exports/electrical-electronic-equipment#:~:text=Russia Exports of electrical%2C electronic equipment was US%246.14 Billion,updated on December of 2022.

https://tradingeconomics.com/russia/imports/electrical-electronic-equipment

The OP in that Twitter feed appears to be looking at electronics as an indicator - he also notes hydrocarbons and auto manufacturing, and then more disturbingly the trend of Chinese-Russian military cooperation.  

 

 

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, akd said:

Vice News report from Bakhmut:

 

That one hit me hard.  I'm glad you posted it.

Steve

[Beleg85]

Short article about valiant stand of 1st Tank Brigade on Chernichov axis in first phase of the conflict:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2022/12/25/how-ukraines-1st-tank-brigade-fought-a-russian-force-ten-times-its-size-and-won/?sh=6cbcb7fe6c59

[dan/california]

7 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

No disagreement there, but you brought it up.

Well you may have been talking about electronic specifically but I am pretty sure LLF was making a much broader point:

Specifically this part here gave it away:

"IMHO, over the long term, Russia's embrace of the Dragon is going to have much bigger consequences for the world than either Taiwan/SCSea or Ukraine, or even the future of Russia itself as a Kremlin-ruled concern. 

China will at long last control (even via RU clients) the sheer quantities of resources commensurate with its customary place in the world (i.e. approximately 30% of world GDP).  From a pure strategic resource supply standpoint (and I am setting aside climate issues and consequences here), it will achieve parity with the US without needing to overcome US ocean dominance.

The 'pen to write that global playbook' is Made In China, guys."

I would suggest we are talking about a geopolitical shift that may land in China's favour in all of this post-conflict.  I am not sure if this is entirely true but the size of the entire Russian economy overall is not small, particularly energy.  I mean seriously the world is not going to pivot on Russian electronic imports/exports but it isn't like we can narrowly sanction this one minor industry after Bucha and go back to buying cheap gas - that would be really weaselly and essentially serve as a passive endorsement of Russia behaviour in this war. 

I mean seriously how does that even unfold?  "Russia you have unilaterally invaded another nation illegally, committed continuous egregious violations of the Law of Armed Conflict and threatened global stability on a scale not seen since the 1960s."

"Our response is to sanction your electronics industry which amounted to a pre-war grand total of about $42B in exports/imports out of a $1.77T economy - so about 2.3%.  We hope you learned your lesson, now turn the gas pipes back on."....??

https://tradingeconomics.com/russia/exports/electrical-electronic-equipment#:~:text=Russia Exports of electrical%2C electronic equipment was US%246.14 Billion,updated on December of 2022.

https://tradingeconomics.com/russia/imports/electrical-electronic-equipment

The OP in that Twitter feed appears to be looking at electronics as an indicator - he also notes hydrocarbons and auto manufacturing, and then more disturbingly the trend of Chinese-Russian military cooperation.  

 

 

The extent, still undetermined, to which China comes to effectively control Russian natural resources could make China's foreign policy much better, or much worse. The smart play for China is to take this as an easy win, and spend the next several decades consolidating this control to maximum extent possible without setting of a massive anti Chinese reaction in Russia. The worst case scenario is they decide they are just sanction proof enough to make a play for Taiwan and wreck the world economy in the process. There are strong and weak versions of both of course.

[Battlefront.com]

Prior to this war there were two non-Western suppliers of military equipment to the world; Russia and China.  I don't see how Russia becoming overly dependent upon China is a bad thing.  It makes Russia weaker as it becomes more dependent upon foreign trade.  As we've seen in this war, that dependency can create very big and sudden problems for Russia's ability to wage war.  China is an unreliable trading partner for Russia, so even without Western pressure it could unilaterally restrict supplying Russia.  Oh, say they get into a tussle over energy prices... whoops, your next shipment of military stuff looks to be held up for a few months.  Then there's the fact that China will never be able to replace Europe as an energy customer.  Simply too difficult to move that mass of energy in the eastern direction.  And finally, I don't think Russians will ever trust the Chinese and the Chinese sure as Hell shouldn't trust the Russians.  That sort of relationship tends to be less-than-smooth over time.

As for geopolitical alliances between Russia and China, I don't see it happening.  They have competing interests in Asia and I doubt very much they will agree upon how to split up influence.  Again, a stress point for the relationship that can not be fixed by increased trade. 

If China should decide to act against Taiwan, of course Russia could cause the West a lot of problems.  However, Russia would likely have done that in 2020 just as much as it would in 2030.  Russia has always been an opportunistic parasite, so no real change in terms of threat.

Oh, I suppose some formal alliance where Russia says "if you attack China we will wipe out Europe and the US" is theoretically possible, but I think highly unlikely.

To sum up... if Russia wants to further undermine its domestic capabilities to cause the world pain and suffering by buying key components from somewhere else, I think that's a good thing.  Especially because the West has a lot of real and theoretical leverage it can apply to Chinese trade if necessary.

Steve

[dan/california]

22 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Short article about valiant stand of 1st Tank Brigade on Chernichov axis in first phase of the conflict:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2022/12/25/how-ukraines-1st-tank-brigade-fought-a-russian-force-ten-times-its-size-and-won/?sh=6cbcb7fe6c59

Their seems to be an entire battle pack of scenarios in there.