How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[FancyCat]

3 people killed but no damage to planes? Doubt.

 

[sburke]

had Christmas dinner with neighbors.  Their 2 year old was busy reading

 

[Butschi]

1 hour ago, FancyCat said:

They were betting on Europe freezing and being forced to approve NS2.

That's also just speculation.

 

[Grossman]

30 minutes ago, Butschi said:

That's also just speculation.

 

The war has radically undone ostpolitik, a German policy since the 1970's. A seismic shock for Germany, where leaders and the people are slowly coming to terms. The link is to an old 2015 article. 

There is no doubt in my mind that Putin banked on the Germans putting commerce above war. He had Schroeder in the Kremlin reassuring him. It's not a coincidence Putin invaded after NS 2 was completed. Destruction of the two pipelines concluded things, to Russian dismay.

It's for Germany now to reassess and do all it can to help UKR, to undo some of the damage.

https://www.the-american-interest.com/2015/08/27/russias-love-affair-with-germany/

[Yet]

New drone attack on Engels airbase.

Quote

https://theatlasnews.co/conflict/2022/12/25/explosions-reported-at-engels-2-airbase-saratov-russia/

 

[Yet]

Just now, Yet said:

New drone attack on Engels airbase.

 

sorry, cross-posted. the latest messages didnt load. 

[Butschi]

19 minutes ago, Grossman said:

The war has radically undone ostpolitik, a German policy since the 1970's.

No it hasn't. Willy Brandt's Ostpolitik is an entirely different thing than what began under Schroeder and continued under Merkel. Merkel in particular put economy above all else, true. Brandt and Schmidt had different goals.

24 minutes ago, Grossman said:

There is no doubt in my mind that Putin banked on the Germans putting commerce above war. He had Schroeder in the Kremlin reassuring him. It's not a coincidence Putin invaded after NS 2 was completed. Destruction of the two pipelines concluded things, to Russian dismay.

Whether or not it is a coincidence is more speculation unless you have proof. But that's not the point. I agree that Putin bet on Germany putting economy above morals.

My comment referred to @FancyCats statement that the NS2 destruction was done by Russia in order to force Germany to open NS2. That's speculation. My feeling is more in line with what you said, that it hurt Russia way more than it gained, but that too, in the absence of evidence is just speculation.

31 minutes ago, Grossman said:

It's for Germany now to reassess and do all it can to help UKR, to undo some of the damage.

Like everyone else. It's not like other countries don't just act in their best interest. But it is also on our best interest to reduce our dependence on the autocrats of this world.

[Grossman]

An informative read. 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/dec/26/ukraine-war-revenge-of-history-how-geopolitics-shaping-conflict

[FancyCat]

2 hours ago, Butschi said:

My comment referred to @FancyCats statement that the NS2 destruction was done by Russia in order to force Germany to open NS2. That's speculation. My feeling is more in line with what you said, that it hurt Russia way more than it gained, but that too, in the absence of evidence is just speculation.

Speculation indeed, but considering the Russian excuses and limiting of gas in NS1, their statements on Europe freezing due to lack of Russian gas, and then once NS1 was gone, expressing that NS2 could be up and running to replace it.

Assuming the translation is correct, Ukraine targeted pilots...nice job those are valuable personnel.

 

[Haiduk]

I'm back. Week ago Kyiv and Kyiv oblast were under heavy attack of Shakheds. More than 30 in one launch. Alas at least five could breakthrough and hit several important substations in Kyiv, so our quarter for three days had only five hours with a power supply,mostly at the night. First day we also hadn't a water and heating. Latter was repaired on second day after the strike and this was in time,because we had -5 at that night. 

In other days electricity appeared some more, but anyway mostly at the nights or at the morning for 2-3 hours. So, we had opportunity to cook something and charge our phones. Several times we heated food in large can with dry spiritus and kept it in heating bateries. We were very angry, when have seen other districts around us with a light at the evening, but our several quarters were almost in full darkness.

Special thanks to Kinophile and other for notebook - it has powerful battery, so it's using as powerbank too ) 

Without electricity all cell towers around were either dead or had  so big abonents load, that internet almost didn't work. Sometime I cought Starlink, deployed by Emergency Service, but it was too far and connection was unstable - about 1-2 minutes. Single place,where I can catch cell phone internet was subway and streets, having power supply. But I had too much work out of my workshop, so almost hadn't time to track   news thoroughly.

At last at weekend, maybe in honor of Christmass our quarter got almost 24hours power 

Damn, I have to read a week of forum )

Edited December 26, 2022 by Haiduk

[Butschi]

2 hours ago, FancyCat said:

Speculation indeed, but considering the Russian excuses and limiting of gas in NS1, their statements on Europe freezing due to lack of Russian gas, and then once NS1 was gone, expressing that NS2 could be up and running to replace it.

And the thought is not entirely implausible. But we Germans, well some of us at least, are not entirely stupid. Before the pipelines blew up, Russia had already stopped delivering anything via NS1 for reasons that everyone could see were lies. So, no matter who destroyed the pipelines why would we think that Russia would be any more reliable once we got the gas from NS2.

With NS1 destroyed we would have gotten away with opening up NS2, I'm sure. There would have been a minor propaganda victory entirely for the Russian audience. They could have gained way more by still delivering via NS1 on the condition that we lift some sanctions.

[FancyCat]

Where the explosion on Engels took place with supporting evidence provided in thread.

 

[akd]

8 hours ago, FancyCat said:

3 people killed but no damage to planes? Doubt.

Sounds like the crew ready room was “accidentally” hit.

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, akd said:

Sounds like the crew ready room was “accidentally” hit.

From the Russian explanation it seems what they are saying is the debris from a successfully intercepted drone hit the crew ready room?  That seems unlikely, but of course it is theoretically possible.  The question is if there's any evidence the drone was intercepted as the Russians claim.

What air defense doing?  That's a good question.  Taking Russia's account at face value (no, please stop laughing!) what they are saying is that the drone successfully flew through Russia's thickest air defense network without being engaged, but then was successfully detected and engaged by local base defenses.  Since the air defenses are built upon the same equipment, this seems unlikely unless the drone changed its flight characteristics as it approached the base in a way that suddenly made it visible to defenses.  Possible.

Except that the alternative is much more likely.  And that is the drone landed on the ground fully intact.  The footage we have of the impact does not look to be debris.  Hardly.  There is also no footage of an interception flash prior to the impact.  Which indicates Russian air defenses, once again, were blind to the attack.

What we really don't know for sure is what was hit.  Russian government is the only source of this information so far and is not be relied upon.  What I think we can say for sure is that Ukraine killed some Russians since I doubt Russia would admit to casualties it didn't suffer.  If Russia is going to lie about the number of killed it would be to make the number smaller than reality, not larger.

Soooo... I think for now we can presume that Ukraine got a drone onto target without any noticeable reaction from Russian air defenses over many hundreds of KMs, the drone impacted as an intact munition, the location hit was within the base, and at the very least some number of Russian military personnel were killed.  Based on what's happened after past strikes, we will likely get some satellite images to look at very soon.

Steve

[dan/california]

I just have to point out that if Ukrainian drones that appear to be a garage built lash up of a 40 year old Russian practice target, and an iphone for a guidance system can hit what ought to be the most heavily defended base in Russia? Then there is no reason to think that real NATO cruise missile would not have effectiveness rates in the mid to high 90% range if it came to it.

[Beleg85]

Whoopsie. Could be partially random, times are difficult and alcohol takes its toll.
 

 

[Haiduk]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

Russian government is the only source of this information so far and is not be relied upon. 

Exсept this we have next RUMINT

1. WarGonzo - missile passed on tangent and UCAV, changing the course hit at pilot ready room, killing three and wounding two.

2: Local TG chat: UKR UAV launched two missiles and flew away. One missile was intercepted, one hit airfield. 

Rumors about result of the hit in local chat are different:

2a: 5 bombers destroyed

2b: airfield control center hit

2c: the bomber with loaded missiles has exploded. 

Since 4 hours after the strike 9 Tu-95MS took off. Three of them later landed at Engels airbase, six other were redeployed to Ukrainka airfield in Amur oblast of Far East. During the fligt the board 98232 had problems with radiogram transmitting. Airfield dispatcher with callsign "Catholic", which usually supports all fligts was on the air, so very likely control center remained unharmed  

Judging on huge glow I doubt this was interception, more likely an impact. I hope MAXAR will show all soon

Edited December 26, 2022 by Haiduk

[Beleg85]

Another alarm there just about hour ago:

 

[Haiduk]

Volodymyr Yezhov "Fresh", one of creators of S.T.A.L.K.E.R game from UKR GSC Games company (also developed known RTS "Cossacks") was killed near Bakhmut. In that time, when Russia is grindering own crimimals we are losing many good creative people...

 

Edited December 26, 2022 by Haiduk

[Battlefront.com]

27 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Whoopsie. Could be partially random, times are difficult and alcohol takes its toll.
 

 

Yeah, Russian health statistics are pretty grim even without nefarious actions.  All three of these guys are all OVER the average life expectancy of a male in Russia (I just checked a bunch of charts to confirm).  Obviously they are better off than the average Russian citizen, but outcomes are still way below that of the West.

Steve

[Haiduk]

Our soldiers have very good opinion about M2 )

 

[Beleg85]

13 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Volodymyr Yezhov "Fresh", one of creators of S.T.A.L.K.E.R game from UKR GSC Games company (also developed known RTS "Cossacks") was killed near Bakhmut. In that time, when Russia is grindering own crimimals we are losing many good creative people...

I spent on whole Stalker universe games hundreds of hours in my early 20's. These games were like magnet, with their unique atmosphere, they are still being played and modders scene is thriving 13 years later. Remember studio appeal in March that they stoped working on new titles because they have country to defend now, and how many spoiled brats and Russian trolls on the net accused them "not to involve politics in game development". This is such a loss for Ukrainian game industry.

28 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Yeah, Russian health statistics are pretty grim even without nefarious actions.  All three of these guys are all OVER the average life expectancy of a male in Russia (I just checked a bunch of charts to confirm).  Obviously they are better off than the average Russian citizen, but outcomes are still way below that of the West.

Steve

At least death of a guy from shipyard probably could be connected to war, thought, as it happened 2 days after second Kuznietsov fire. Or Russian services are cleaning potentiall spies. Or even internal fight between branches- there was a long-held grudge in the Army that Kremlin overinvested in the Navy, which is expensive and as we see almost useless. So if they want to allocate resources of the future military budget for in the Land Forces, perhaps some examples not to lament too vocally from Navy were needed. Who knows.

[Haiduk]

Next updated RUMINT with referring to "anonymous sources in RU General Staff" about Engels attack: 5 bombers heavy damaged, 2 got light damages, control tower damaged, 17 killed, 26 wounded.

Rumors in local chats already talk about 5 destroyed Tu-95 and 6 damaged Tu-160 + cruise missiles dump blown up. The city as if is closed for exit and entrance. 

Probably nice PsyOps from our side.

Edited December 26, 2022 by Haiduk

[Vet 0369]

6 hours ago, Haiduk said:

I'm back. Week ago Kyiv and Kyiv oblast were under heavy attack of Shakheds. More than 30 in one launch. Alas at least five could breakthrough and hit several important substations in Kyiv, so our quarter for three days had only five hours with a power supply,mostly at the night. First day we also hadn't a water and heating. Latter was repaired on second day after the strike and this was in time,because we had -5 at that night. 

In other days electricity appeared some more, but anyway mostly at the nights or at the morning for 2-3 hours. So, we had opportunity to cook something and charge our phones. Several times we heated food in large can with dry spiritus and kept it in heating bateries. We were very angry, when have seen other districts around us with a light at the evening, but our several quarters were almost in full darkness.

Special thanks to Kinophile and other for notebook - it has powerful battery, so it's using as powerbank too ) 

Without electricity all cell towers around were either dead or had  so big abonents load, that internet almost didn't work. Sometime I cought Starlink, deployed by Emergency Service, but it was too far and connection was unstable - about 1-2 minutes. Single place,where I can catch cell phone internet was subway and streets, having power supply. But I had too much work out of my workshop, so almost hadn't time to track   news thoroughly.

At last at weekend, maybe in honor of Christmass our quarter got almost 24hours power 

Damn, I have to read a week of forum )

Welcome back friend! I’m glad you made it through. Merry Christmas (whether you’re celebrating on December 25 (Roman Sect) or December 27 (Eastern Sect as I understand it), all are Christians. 

You are a valued and trusted leader in this Forum, and we value you greatly!

[Haiduk]

UKR unofficial sources more restrained in assesments. This TG screen with Tu-95 redeployment map says that according to intelligence info on eve of strike Russians had on airfield 12 Tu-95 and 3 Tu-160. Six of Tu-95 were redeployed. 

As I wrote above, according OSINT radio scanning 9 Tu-95 were taken off after the strike and 6 really flew to Far East. 

So, we can make assumption that something wrong with test three Tu-95 or with their crews. Tu-160 as if can't be redeployed on long time, because only Engels airbase has proper facilities for their maintenance.