How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[poesel]

1 hour ago, Kraft said:

This is only a partial truth.

You are right. It was meant ironical.  We have more than the 18 Marders in store than we need to replace the Pumas.

1 hour ago, Kraft said:

It is a fair question to ask the people in charge, who would the Bundeswehr defend against? France? New Austria-Hungaria?

With the Austrians, I'm not so sure

Again, you are totally right. Ukraine is defending the rest of Europe against the Russians, and we should be much more grateful for that.

But this is (as everything) a thing of subjective perception. Many Germans share my view of things, but also many don't. We are split roughly in half over this, and that is reflected in the behavior of our politicians, who also don't have a clear path.

This is a bit cynical, but winter might help here. Stories about freezing children or old people in Ukraine seem to crop up more and more in the mass media. This might help to bring over those in camp caution.

[paxromana]

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-64016599

Russia to deploy musicians to front to boost morale

What planet are these guys on?

Or what are they snorting off those dead hookers?

[FancyCat]

 

[Haiduk]

On 12/17/2022 at 5:06 PM, pintere said:

Right… do you have any posts/interviews where Ukrainian soldiers talk about that kinda thing? I’ve heard some people comment they’re just trolling the Russians, but haven’t seen any actual evidence that suggest that’s the case.

There are no any interviews, because [black] humor and mockery is natural feature of Ukrianians and especially those who at the war - so no need to explain this for Ukrainains, who watch this video. I have seen much more such type of videos and photos - this is just trolling and "cosplay" on German WWII theme. Why? Because Russians call us "fasсists" and "nazi". So, well, we don't want to dissapoint them. More, theese "German" theme became more popular after bright Balakliya operation, where UKR troops had "white cross" recognize symbol, so enough soldiers became to draw it like German-style. Russians after Balakliya became to call UKR troops on this direction as "niemtsy" (Russian name for Germans). 

@Beleg85

Hmm.... You forgot to mean Bohdan Khmelnitskiy name and cossacks to the list, which also were "mass murderers" from Polish point of view. We have Order of Khmelnitskiy, some unit afer his name, have chevrons with cossacks. I think, no one country shouldn't point out to neigbours, which their hystorical persons they have to honor and which not. The same Russia did. You also have controversal political person as Pilsudsky, who of course a hero and brilliant political leader for Poles, but dictator and opressor for Ukrainians. But we didn't point out to Poland they have to reject to honor him, because this can hurt our feelings. This is your history and your country and we respect this. Respect you too if not our hystorical persons, but at least our rights to honor them. 

Edited December 18, 2022 by Haiduk

[danfrodo]

11 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

 

I guess carrying around all that money makes one prone to falls.  So sad. 

But one has to wonder why Putin ordered this (yes, I am assuming he did).  Was this guy talking to other tycoons about needing to end Putin's reign of stupid? 

[Taranis]

For History : November 15-30 sum up

[Haiduk]

Further comments about video above with a shelling of Wagner-troops on former UKR rectangular position near Ozarianivka

It's a position named "Basin" - this was abandoned small water reservoir. 

As told one UKR soldier after the position was heavy shelled and enemy suffered losses, the unit of some brigade tried to assault this position on 15th Dec, but assault failed - soldier told Wagners have here advantage in modern radios, drones w/thermals, NV sights and thermals (this correlates with Russian talks on LostArmor, that since October Wagner units became to get big number of modern equipments - digital radios, drones, thermal sights, takmed kits etc)

But on 17th Dec next assault, conducted by 46th air-assault brigade was successfull and position was recaptured with big losses for Wagners. Today a video is appeared from there (unblured corpses present)

Next, this soldier told Russians now are attacking through the dam over the canal, not counting with losses and as if only for one day they lost there about 100 KIA/WIA

 

Edited December 18, 2022 by Haiduk

[Battlefront.com]

51 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

 

Ooo.  Been a while since we had an oligarch have an accident or a fit of familial homicide.  And on NATO soil, again.

Well, at the very least it's someone for sburke's oligarch list.

Steve

[Haiduk]

Some more about knife range fights around Bakhmut

Aftermath of next Russian assault - bodies in several steps from the thrench

Duel between UKR AT-shooter and the tank of 127th MRD. Looks like a draw, but UKR solier likely shell-shocked

 

[Haiduk]

@sburke

Colonel Vladimir Rogalyov, chief of staff of 7th military base (occupied Abkhazia). Was killed on 2nd of October, likely in Kherson oblast

Major Aleksey Borovikov, navigator of Ka-52, unit unknown. Was killed on 4th of Dec. According to Russian sources that was more effective crew on this direction of front.

Lt.colonel (retired) Denis Kudrin, LPR-forces, current duty unknown. Killed on 7th of March in Luhansk oblast. In 2014 arrived on Donbas like volunteer and formed battalion "Hoologan", since 2015 commanded over motor-rifle battalion of 2nd motor-rifle brogade of LPR. After Debaltsevo battle he abandoned Donbas and returned to Russia. Since 24th of Feb again in service of LPR forces.

  

Major of police, Andrey Shikhov, went at war as volunteer, probably to BARS or local oblast volunteer battalion. Was killed on 18th of Aug

 

 

Edited December 18, 2022 by Haiduk

[Butschi]

5 hours ago, Kraft said:

This is only a partial truth. Marders in storage of private firms are not in use of the Bundeswehr, yet cannot be sold to Ukraine because of political decisions. Or Leo1s to be sold by other countries, who lack the permission by whom?

It is a fair question to ask the people in charge, who would the Bundeswehr defend against? France? New Austria-Hungaria? Any and all military equipment with the intend of keeping Europe peaceful has the highest marginal use in Ukraine right now where it would be able to put Russias military back decades, and safe Ukrainian lifes instead of dusting and rusting.

NATO obligations are a nice throwaway line to say its not in the hands of the politicans, who for the last how many decades couldnt care less about NATO obligations of >2% GDP, 30days of ammo storage, actually working vehicles,... but it sure is a nice excuse right now. The same one that was used for the Dingos, who then suddenly could be sent quite easily (even though the Bundeswehr does not have a surplus..) after enough political pressure was felt.

By your logic Germany could just get rid of the whole Bundeswehr. I mean, whom should they defend against, France? New Austria-Hungary?

That's more or less what Germany did the last two to three decades and for exactly that reason. From what I remember of the previous 1800 pages of this thread noone was happy with that, either. Also, Germany Bashing Day was last week. You had your chance, wait until next one, next month.

[Battlefront.com]

3 minutes ago, Butschi said:

By your logic Germany could just get rid of the whole Bundeswehr. I mean, whom should they defend against, France? New Austria-Hungary?

I think you misunderstood his point.  At least, the way I took it is the point of this equipment is to defend Germany and defend Europe.  There is more reason to think that giving the equipment to Ukraine serves that purpose better than having it sitting around just in case Austria decides to try a reverse Anschluß.  And this is something I think you are in agreement with.

Steve

[Butschi]

1 hour ago, Haiduk said:

this is just trolling and "cosplay" on German WWII theme.

Maybe... but for each and every Putin friend, conspiracy theorist and sanctions abolisher this is more material to say "see, the Russians were right all along!"

[Battlefront.com]

Now this is interesting, and not unexpected:

Russia has apparently figured out that 1 year for conscription duty is not sufficient to produce effective soldiers.  I wonder what gave them that idea?

Steve

[FancyCat]

2 minutes ago, Butschi said:

Maybe... but for each and every Putin friend, conspiracy theorist and sanctions abolisher this is more material to say "see, the Russians were right all along!"

They do that anyway. And then ignore every Nazi Russian, every genocidal Russian saying “kill the Ukrainians”. I mean it’s a bit galling to have Ukrainians criticized and then Russia gets to hide behind big bad NATO instead of genocidal murder of Ukrainians by those who support them.

10 minutes ago, Butschi said:

By your logic Germany could just get rid of the whole Bundeswehr. I mean, whom should they defend against, France? New Austria-Hungary?

That's more or less what Germany did the last two to three decades and for exactly that reason. From what I remember of the previous 1800 pages of this thread noone was happy with that, either. Also, Germany Bashing Day was last week. You had your chance, wait until next one, next month.

Tho, it is kinda bull about the Marders….I mean we sent them MRAPs, what the hell is the difference(I know there’s a difference, the point is why is this IFV so different than a MRAP that also has a gun on top), sure, big scary tank, no, no, but why this mrap and not this IFV. 

[Battlefront.com]

7 minutes ago, Butschi said:

Maybe... but for each and every Putin friend, conspiracy theorist and sanctions abolisher this is more material to say "see, the Russians were right all along!"

A point made several times already and it should keep being made.  This sort of "trolling" is like handing an execution squad ammo.  It's not a good thing to do.

This is one reason why celebrities and politicians are advised to be VERY careful with how they mock someone or something.  If it is caught on audio or video it can be manipulated.  For example, a guy standing up, saying Hitler is his hero, doing a Sieg Heil, and then making some comment like "get real!  Hitler is the worst thing that ever happened to this planet.  I hope he is rotting in Hell".  The first portion will get separated from the context and that is all people will see.

Don't feed the trolls is good advice.

Steve

[FancyCat]

 

 

[Haiduk]

@sburke

Lt.colonel Roman Vdovydchenko, 790th fighter aviation regiment, 105th mixed aviation division, 6th AF/AD Army, Western military district. Died in a crash of MiG-31 in Belbek, occupied Crinea on 1st of October. Russians claimed as if he shot down 9 UKR planes.

 

Lt.colonel Aleksandr Antonov, PMC Wagner pilot. Was kileld on 2nd of Dec - his Su-24M was shot down near Bakhmut

 

Officer, likely at least captain, Vladimir Nikishin, pilot-navigator of PMC Wagner. Was killed on 2nd of Dec, when his Su-24M was shot down near Bakhmut

 

Major Anatoliy Shushliukov, chief of enineer service, 47th tank division of 1st tank army, Western military district. Was killed on 23th of Sep near Volodymyrivka village of Luhansk oblast

   

Lt.colonel Aleksandr Lopin, battalion comamnder of 108th air-assault regiment of 7th air-assault division (mountain), Southern military district, data of death unknown, but early of 6th of October, when he was buried.

 

[Beleg85]

34 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

There are no any interviews, because [black] humor and mockery is natural feature of Ukrianians and especially those who at the war - so no need to explain this for Ukrainains, who watch this video. I have seen much more such type of videos and photos - this is just trolling and "cosplay" on German WWII theme. Why? Because Russians call us "fasсists" and "nazi". So, well, we don't want to dissapoint them. More, theese "German" theme became more popular after bright Balakliya operation, where UKR troops had "white cross" recognize symbol, so enough soldiers became to draw it like German-style. Russians after Balakliya became to call UKR troops on this direction as "niemtsy" (Russian name for Germans). 

Yup, except there is way too much of this stuff to be just a trolling. Also Ukrainians, especially in their situation, should acknowledge the fact that such nazi jokes may not be considered jokes by anyone around, especially Germans. A lot of unpleasant things can be said about behaviour of our western neighbours, but they did really good job on getiing to the root of the problem with their own past, compared to other actors, and are deadly serious about the subject. There was a reason why Myelnik became informal persona non grata in Berlin.

34 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

@Beleg85

Hmm.... You forgot to meant Bohdan Khmelnitskiy name and cossacks to the list, which also were "mass murderers" from Polish point of view. We have Order of Khmelnitskiy, some unit afer his name, have chevrons with cossacks. I think, no one country shouldn't point out to neigbours, which their hystorical persons they have to honor and which not.

With all due respect Haiduk, I completelly disagree. Not only I have no reason not to criticize others' past (or my own, so to speak), but as historian I would say it is my job, if based on right methodology and facts. Chmielnicki lived in XVII cent., so it is long forgotten past barely anybody relate to- I doubt there is anyone who lost relatives in his massacres...

While people who were personally touched by UPA made genocide  at Wołyń/East Małopolska are still living, or their direct children. Just several days ago passed away gen. Mirosław Hermaszewski, only guy from here ever flying space, who as 2-year boy barely managed  to survive Wołyń genocide. There are more such people. So sorry, it has nothing to do with Chmielnicki.

35 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

You also have controversal political person as Pilsudsky, who of course a hero and brilliant political leader for Poles, but dictator and opressor for Ukrainians. But we didn't point out to Poland they have to reject to honor him, because this can hurt our feelings.

I am not fan of Piłsudski personally (he supressed nascent Polish democracy and blocked reforms of the military in 30's), but whatever you can blame on pre-WWII Polish state - and there is a lot, it was by no means perfect place to live for many people-it all pales in comparision to what ethnonationalistic butchers from OUN/UPA complex did by a absolutelly wide margin, and is gross misunderstanding of Ukrainian past. And Polish one too. Or basically any kind regional history, in which entire Ukrainian nationalistic movement stands out as particulary, almost inhumanly brutal one. Perhaps only Jasenovec camp on Balkans in WWII can be compared to UPA's "work" in sheer scale of cruel barbarity.

https://nawolyniu.pl/english.htm

Crucial problem is that young Ukrainians do not learn about this at schools and universities, and if so, at most somewhere in the footnotes. So large swaths of population on Westen Ukraine still think that OUN/UPA were some kind of edgy proto-patriots that  fought the Soviets, not genocidal ethnonationalistic movement on the level of Croatian Ustashe or Hungarian Arrowcrossers. Ofc. raging antisemitism and collaboration with Nazi Germany goes without saying (Melnyk faction specifically, UPA much less; however Shuhevycz himself was member of Nachtigal batalion).

38 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

This is your history and your country and we respect this. Respect you too if not our hystorical persons, but at least our rights to honor them. 

The problem is, it is also Polish history, as well as Jewish, Hungarian, German and Russian. Should Croatians and Bosniaks tolerate their neighbours freely venerating Milosevic, Mladić or Karadzić, because "it is not their history"? Or Israelis be silent about rising neo-nazi movements in Europe? And Jugoslavian wars murderers were almost gentle teddybears compared to folks like Bandera, Schuchevycz or Klaczkivsky, both in scale and "qulity" of their work. Quote you several sources from victims of Wołyń massacres or share personal stories about "brave Ukrainian patriots" specifically targeting minors and children by thousands? Almost all their "honest job" (direct quote) was made by axe, scythe or falx, to spare the ammo.

If I would be young Ukrainian cautious of my own past, I would not like to touch OUN/UPA symbolic even with a stick. Level of self-induced ignorance to one's own genocidal past among some Ukrainians (by no means all, of course)  is sickening, frankly speaking- there is really a lot of work to be done in order to OUN/UPA become taboo as similar movements in other civilized countries are.

Because from all I hear from your leaders, you are aspiring to become part of civilized, democratic Western world, right? If so, then a lot of unpleasant truths about own history awaits you folks.

OK, sorry for offtopic.

[pintere]

2 hours ago, Haiduk said:

There are no any interviews, because [black] humor and mockery is natural feature of Ukrianians and especially those who at the war - so no need to explain this for Ukrainains, who watch this video. I have seen much more such type of videos and photos - this is just trolling and "cosplay" on German WWII theme. Why? Because Russians call us "fasсists" and "nazi". So, well, we don't want to dissapoint them. More, theese "German" theme became more popular after bright Balakliya operation, where UKR troops had "white cross" recognize symbol, so enough soldiers became to draw it like German-style. Russians after Balakliya became to call UKR troops on this direction as "niemtsy" (Russian name for Germans).

Interesting little tidbit. To be honest I actually find it pretty funny that they’re doing it, and since Ukraine suffered quite a bit under Nazi rule they of all people should have the latitude to do this kinda thing if they really want. 

Only problem is that Ukraine remains quite dependent on international support, so to prevent that from being soured I’d personally caution against it. Guess we’ll have to leave it to the Ukrainian command structure to judge it as they see fit.

 

Edited December 18, 2022 by pintere

[Zeleban]

53 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Yup, except there is way too much of this stuff to be just a trolling. Also Ukrainians, especially in their situation, should acknowledge the fact that such nazi jokes may not be considered jokes by anyone around, especially Germans. A lot of unpleasant things can be said about behaviour of our western neighbours, but they did really good job on getiing to the root of the problem with their own past, compared to other actors, and are deadly serious about the subject. There was a reason why Myelnik became informal persona non grata in Berlin.

With all due respect Haiduk, I completelly disagree. Not only I have no reason not to criticize others' past (or my own, so to speak), but as historian I would say it is my job, if based on right methodology and facts. Chmielnicki lived in XVII cent., so it is long forgotten past barely anybody relate to- I doubt there is anyone who lost relatives in his massacres...

While people who were personally touched by UPA made genocide  at Wołyń/East Małopolska are still living, or their direct children. Just several days ago passed away gen. Mirosław Hermaszewski, only guy from here ever flying space, who as 2-year boy barely managed  to survive Wołyń genocide. There are more such people. So sorry, it has nothing to do with Chmielnicki.

I am not fan of Piłsudski personally (he supressed nascent Polish democracy and blocked reforms of the military in 30's), but whatever you can blame on pre-WWII Polish state - and there is a lot, it was by no means perfect place to live for many people-it all pales in comparision to what ethnonationalistic butchers from OUN/UPA complex did by a absolutelly wide margin, and is gross misunderstanding of Ukrainian past. And Polish one too. Or basically any kind regional history, in which entire Ukrainian nationalistic movement stands out as particulary, almost inhumanly brutal one. Perhaps only Jasenovec camp on Balkans in WWII can be compared to UPA's "work" in sheer scale of cruel barbarity.

https://nawolyniu.pl/english.htm

Crucial problem is that young Ukrainians do not learn about this at schools and universities, and if so, at most somewhere in the footnotes. So large swaths of population on Westen Ukraine still think that OUN/UPA were some kind of edgy proto-patriots that  fought the Soviets, not genocidal ethnonationalistic movement on the level of Croatian Ustashe or Hungarian Arrowcrossers. Ofc. raging antisemitism and collaboration with Nazi Germany goes without saying (Melnyk faction specifically, UPA much less; however Shuhevycz himself was member of Nachtigal batalion).

The problem is, it is also Polish history, as well as Jewish, Hungarian, German and Russian. Should Croatians and Bosniaks tolerate their neighbours freely venerating Milosevic, Mladić or Karadzić, because "it is not their history"? Or Israelis be silent about rising neo-nazi movements in Europe? And Jugoslavian wars murderers were almost gentle teddybears compared to folks like Bandera, Schuchevycz or Klaczkivsky, both in scale and "qulity" of their work. Quote you several sources from victims of Wołyń massacres or share personal stories about "brave Ukrainian patriots" specifically targeting minors and children by thousands? Almost all their "honest job" (direct quote) was made by axe, scythe or falx, to spare the ammo.

If I would be young Ukrainian cautious of my own past, I would not like to touch OUN/UPA symbolic even with a stick. Level of self-induced ignorance to one's own genocidal past among some Ukrainians (by no means all, of course)  is sickening, frankly speaking- there is really a lot of work to be done in order to OUN/UPA become taboo as similar movements in other civilized countries are.

Because from all I hear from your leaders, you are aspiring to become part of civilized, democratic Western world, right? If so, then a lot of unpleasant truths about own history awaits you folks.

OK, sorry for offtopic.

 

Imagine how the Poles are angry with the words "Glory to Ukraine, glory to the heroes" After all, this is a greeting from the OUN-UPA. Moreover, these words are increasingly spoken by leading world politicians and international figures.

[Yet]

Quote

https://cepa.org/article/might-putin-annex-belarus/

Might putin find a way out without losing face by annexing Belarus saying 'that was the plan all along' ?

[Battlefront.com]

9 minutes ago, Zeleban said:

 

Imagine how the Poles are angry with the words "Glory to Ukraine, glory to the heroes" After all, this is a greeting from the OUN-UPA. Moreover, these words are increasingly spoken by leading world politicians and international figures.

The world is never going to disappoint us by being boringly consistent and without controversy, that is for sure.

Steve

[kevinkin]

8 minutes ago, Yet said:

Might putin find a way out without losing face by annexing Belarus saying 'that was the plan all along' ?

That might play into the West's hands. Nothing like a Western armed insurgency to push Belarus out of Russia's orbit. Many hate Russia already. Putin has complete freedom of movement inside Belsrus, so I don't see any advantage. But an interested wrinkle. BTW, the Suwalki corridor might as well be in another galaxy given how well the RA performs.  

[dan/california]

3 hours ago, FancyCat said:

 

There are some Russian agents running around Europe who need finding...