How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Haiduk]

A-50 AWACS with Su-30M escort took off over Belarus. MIG-31 in the air as a bait, probably. They try to reveal our AD positins. Tu-95 still in air, their radio exchange heard to this time.

Su-25 took off from Lida airfield in Belarus. Maybe also as a bait.

On present time about 70 missiles were launched, 20 Kalibrs, 3 Kh-59, 2 Kh-31, rest - Kh-101/555

[womble]

When we're collating reports on the relevance of armour (especially MBTs) it's perhaps important to recall that the RU and UKR experiences of using tanks differs rather starkly in this war. The UA might have a rosier picture of the usefulness of armour, since they're not facing the same organic  AT systems (Stugna, Javelin, NLAW) or the ridiculously efficient PGM strikes of modern 155mm guided by the best battlefield sensor suite ever deployed.

The UA is facing an enemy that's much closer in capability to the kind of foe they were "designed" to fight.

It's also worth bearing in mind that the Russian experience early in the war was very much skewed by the political/strategic considerations that their planners had taken into account which simply didn't materialise. Much of the Russian loss seems to have been caused at root by the assumption that serious fighting wouldn't take place, and that moving under-screened columns down readily-identifiable lines of advance wouldn't be a problem, amongst a hundred other mistaken assessments (most of which would have had to be correct in order for Putin's initial plan to bear fruit) and systematic failings.

[The_Capt]

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/polands-top-cop-injured-by-exploding-present-says-ministry-2022-12-15/
 

Any insights as to what this was about?

[womble]

3 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/polands-top-cop-injured-by-exploding-present-says-ministry-2022-12-15/
 

Any insights as to what this was about?

The beeb article suggested that the present might've been a grenade launcher. Maybe there was still one up the spout and the copper forgot his safe weapon handling training...

[Huba]

2 hours ago, The_Capt said:

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/polands-top-cop-injured-by-exploding-present-says-ministry-2022-12-15/
 

Any insights as to what this was about?

If somebody presents you with an illegal training grenade launcher:

a) don't accept this gift, it might backfire. Remember that "training" DOES NOT equal "inert"

b) if you accepted, don't tinker with it if you don't know how it works.

c) if decided to tinker with it anyway, don't do it in your office.

d) especially if you are the chief of Police of the entire ****ing country.

e) cause if something happens, the ruling party will have a huge problem spinning it as another victory, and you might be asked to resign from office. Also, you might hurt yourself.

If you think that's funny, well, you are damn right -  Darwin award level of stupidity was involved here, and from somebody you'd expect to know better.

Also, as you can imagine, the meme brigade is having a field day.

 

Edited December 16, 2022 by Huba

[Haiduk]

UKR in previous two days conducted successful strikes at ammo dumps in Kadiivka (Stakhanov) and Irmino, both in Luhansk oblast. In Kadiivka detonations lasted more than one day

Kadiivka:

Irmino hit

Reportedly many residual buildings burned and damaged after theeese explosions

Edited December 16, 2022 by Haiduk

[The_Capt]

1 hour ago, Huba said:

If you somebody presents you with an illegal training grenade launcher:

a) don't accept this gift, it might backfire. Remember that "training" DOES NOT equal "inert"

b) if you accepted, don't tinker with it if you don't know how it works.

c) if decided to tinker with it anyway, don't do it in your office.

d) especially if you are the chief of Police of the entire ****ing country.

e) cause if something happens, the ruling party will have a huge problem spinning it as another victory, and you might be asked to resign from office. Also, you might hurt yourself.

If you think that's funny, well, you are damn right -  Darwin award level of stupidity was involved here, and from somebody you'd expect to know better.

Also, as you can imagine, the meme brigade is having a field day.

 

You can’t make this stuff up.

[Haiduk]

Russian missiles hit DniproGES hydro power plant today (lloks like one missed and fell in the water)

Overall statistic of the day

76 missiles were launched from frigate "Admiral Makarov" (20 Kalibrs) and aircraft Tu-95, Su-35, Tu-22M3 (Kh-101, Kh-555, Kh-22, Kh-59, Kh-31). 60 were intercepted. 

Additionally Russians launched 27 S-300 missiles in ground attack mode on close frontline areas. Heavy infrastructure damages in Kharkiv. 

In Kyiv subway is stopped. Lack of electricity, no water supply and heating on half of left-bank districts. On right bank situation is better. I now can write from my work on right bank. I hope I will have internet at home

Edited December 16, 2022 by Haiduk

[billbindc]

2 hours ago, The_Capt said:

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/polands-top-cop-injured-by-exploding-present-says-ministry-2022-12-15/
 

Any insights as to what this was about?

Given the fruitlessness and apparent incompetence of the op, I'd say it's almost certainly GRU.

[Kinophile]

11 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

There were some newly formed Reserve units that didn't get to the front until Kherson and Kharkiv, but I'm not sure any pre-war units were pulled out of the fight to be built into something different.

Steve

Yes, I believe that's only happening now, in parts. Until Kherson ended it was reinforce in place. 

[Maciej Zwolinski]

1 hour ago, billbindc said:

Given the fruitlessness and apparent incompetence of the op, I'd say it's almost certainly GRU.

If by GRU you mean "General intelligence Radically Underdeveloped" you got that right. The story is described above in Huba's post. Short version: that Szymczyk guy is an incredible idiot who was playing with an RGW 90 "Matador" he had in his office. Some other idiot gave it to him as a souvenir. It was a training version, but unbeknownst to Szymczyk, still capable of firing a training projectile, only without a live warhead. Which it did in Szymczyk's office, apparently collapsing one floor of the Police headquarters and sending that cretin to a hospital. 

[Beleg85]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

You can’t make this stuff up.

And that is, ladies and gentlemen, arguably the same type of dismissive mentality toward procedures that downed Lech Kaczyński plane. Not magical Russian missiles, invisible hidden bombs or moving airfield strip.

It's good Ukrainians did not gifted Himars rocket. Because rumour is one delegation already came back with full 155 mm shell for Krab as a sign of gratitude, so we have that covered.

Edited December 16, 2022 by Beleg85

[FancyCat]

The destruction of the 200th Separate Motor Rifle Brigade, part of the Northern Fleet is detailed in this article: https://wapo.st/3HHvE1V

 

[Huba]

13 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

It's good Ukrainians did not gifted Himars rocket. Because rumour is one delegation already came back with full 155 mm shell for Krab as a sign of gratitude, so we have that covered.

Also the idea of Poland participating in the NATO Nuclear Sharing programme suddenly became much less appealing. 
 

[Huba]

Here's an interesting development. Few days ago it was also reported that Turkey is going to move the S400 out of line and "store it in undisclosed location".

 

Edited December 16, 2022 by Huba

[FancyCat]

Ukrainian Air Force pilot "Juice" gives a interview on the state of the air war now. Must read!

Praise for the SEAD missions enabled by the HARM missiles.

Russians staying wary with tangling with UAF but they still are operating and trying to silence them EW and with their own SEAD, tho not as effective as supposed to be. The long range Air to Air missile R-37M is now in use by Russia, and it's dangerous.

They have mercenary Wagner pilots who are seemingly tasked with the more suicidal missions, operating older jets and acting in general with some more callousness than RuAF.

Big warning, Russia is now putting online older airframes, older air defense less capable but planes are planes, AD is AD. Big issue I think, if Ukraine is forced to rely on what little airframes it has remaining without more coming online. He mentions the Army Aviation, who operate helicopters, who sorely need more aid, including Western helicopters if possible. Did mention that his and Ukraine's advocacy is making dividends in that the West is considering how to best approach providing aid over the long terms including western airframes potentially.

Biggest hurdle for western jets is political, not technical or logistically. (Which is obvious, I don't doubt meeting with Ukrainian pilots changes minds on whether Ukraine can handle western aircraft)

Essential reading.

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/a-mig-29-pilots-inside-account-of-the-changing-air-war-over-ukraine

 

[G.I. Joe]

4 hours ago, Huba said:

If somebody presents you with an illegal training grenade launcher:

a) don't accept this gift, it might backfire. Remember that "training" DOES NOT equal "inert"

b) if you accepted, don't tinker with it if you don't know how it works.

c) if decided to tinker with it anyway, don't do it in your office.

d) especially if you are the chief of Police of the entire ****ing country.

e) cause if something happens, the ruling party will have a huge problem spinning it as another victory, and you might be asked to resign from office. Also, you might hurt yourself.

If you think that's funny, well, you are damn right -  Darwin award level of stupidity was involved here, and from somebody you'd expect to know better.

Also, as you can imagine, the meme brigade is having a field day.

 

Anyone else having trouble getting past the irony that he has the same given name as Yaroslav the Wise?

[dan/california]

17 minutes ago, G.I. Joe said:

Anyone else having trouble getting past the irony that he has the same given name as Yaroslav the Wise?

Everyone's goal in life should be to NOT wind up as an internet meme, he seems to have failed in this endeavour.

[danfrodo]

Holy moly, turns out there's actually a war going on!  Update below reports progress by UKR in some areas, though slow.  Slowly surrounding Kremmina.  Some good tidbits.  Ru still pounding its head at Bakhmut -- but allegedly have lost ground last day or two.

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/12/16/2142198/-Ukraine-update-Russian-forces-around-Bakhmut-forced-to-surrender-ground-as-assault-falters

Weather not cooperating:  looks like warm & wet today but ~cold front moving into Kharkiv area though not the kind of cold we want for solidly freezing the ground.  lows a little below freezing, highs a little above.

Melitopol a little warmer, basically same temperatures as right now in Oregon.  And my ground is not frozen. 

 

[Beleg85]

Video (graphic) showing UA mortars or artillery turning Russian defensives into graves. Who is still digging straight trenches, btw? Seems like freshly mobilized unit.

 

[Haiduk]

18 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Video (graphic) showing UA mortars or artillery turning Russian defensives into graves. Who is still digging straight trenches, btw? Seems like freshly mobilized unit.

 

This is Wagner merceneries in the area of recently occupied Ozeriznivka village southern of Bakhmut. Very likely this is old UKR position or a site for vehicles

Edited December 16, 2022 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

3 HIMARS missiles have struck the building, used as barracks in Lantrativka villalge near Troitske - important Russian railway node on the north of Luhansk oblast. Very surprisingly LPR recognized 11 killed and 17 wounded

Edited December 16, 2022 by Haiduk

[akd]

24 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Video (graphic) showing UA mortars or artillery turning Russian defensives into graves. Who is still digging straight trenches, btw? Seems like freshly mobilized unit.

 

DPICM?

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, danfrodo said:

Holy moly, turns out there's actually a war going on!  Update below reports progress by UKR in some areas, though slow.  Slowly surrounding Kremmina.  Some good tidbits.  Ru still pounding its head at Bakhmut -- but allegedly have lost ground last day or two.

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/12/16/2142198/-Ukraine-update-Russian-forces-around-Bakhmut-forced-to-surrender-ground-as-assault-falters

Weather not cooperating:  looks like warm & wet today but ~cold front moving into Kharkiv area though not the kind of cold we want for solidly freezing the ground.  lows a little below freezing, highs a little above.

Melitopol a little warmer, basically same temperatures as right now in Oregon.  And my ground is not frozen. 

 

That was (another) good summary from the site previously warned about

We see this sort of pattern over and over again with the Russians making minuscule gains at great costs, people proclaiming the end of Ukraine as we know it, and then a few days later finding Ukraine in the previously lost positions with a lot of time spent processing the abandoned Russian corpses scattered all over the place.

Sure, it isn't cost free for Ukraine.  Sure, with each push Russia tends to hang onto at least some portion of what they gained.  But the big "breakthroughs" that get discussed about never seem to happen.

It's a crappy way to fight a war, however for sure it is far worse for Russia than Ukraine.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

14 minutes ago, akd said:

DPICM?

I don't know what else it could be.  There's air bursts and plenty of concurrent detonations.  Hard to imagine what the alternatives could be.  I suppose a whole bunch of AGLs firing concurrently with different aim points, but that seems far fetched.

Steve