How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[sburke]

Russia's central bank just issued a warning about 'new economic shocks,' and it shows the new $60/barrel cap on oil is working (yahoo.com)

Quote

Russia is mulling options to counter the price cap, including banning oil sales to some countries.

Somehow that doesn't strike me as a good retaliatory response for Russia's finances.

[Battlefront.com]

33 minutes ago, Billy Ringo said:

Viktor Bout:  Was convicted by a jury in a Manhattan federal court of conspiracy to kill U.S. citizens and officials, delivery of anti-aircraft missiles, and providing aid to a terrorist organization, and was sentenced to the minimum 25 years' imprisonment,

Maybe it's just me, but I don't think much of this trade.  Cold blooded, connected and experienced killer with the potential to harm/kill Americans in the future.  Griner's "celebrity" status should not have made her a priority.

I agree the exchange was not in the national best interests of the US.  However, the precedent for rewarding kidnapping has long ago been established.  It is why Russia kidnapped Griner in the first place.  And if the US didn't give up Bout, they'd just kidnap someone else.  Yet another reason to put Russia on the terrorist list.

I think any US citizen going to certain countries should have to sign a waiver that explicitly states that if they should get kidnapped that the US government will do nothing about it.  The choice, therefore, is on the shoulders of the individual.  Informed consent.

The US government could then use this individually signed document to say "hey, we told him/her this would happen and that they should not go.  We even told them that they would be on their own if something went wrong.  So it is what it is".

 

As a reminder to people, Putin stole a Superbowl ring from Bob Kraft (owner of the NE Patriots American Football team and big industrialist).  I just found a recently written recap of this story:

https://www.newsweek.com/vladimir-putin-stole-super-bowl-ring-robert-kraft-1691395

That's the man in charge of the country which Griner thought was such a really good idea to visit.

Steve

[kevinkin]

43 minutes ago, Billy Ringo said:

Griner's "celebrity" status should not have made her a priority.

I am sure it did and also the charges against her vs Whelan were very different. In the West we like this outcome since it's humanitarian. We have a hard time with a simple geopolitical analysis here. In Putin's sick mind he sees weakness: pot user for a cold blooded killer. Nothing more or less.

[danfrodo]

Some good tidbits in this link today.  Galeev predicts RU empire splits up, T90S export model showing up in active duty, explosion in Berdyansk port, and some foreshadowing about something happening on Svatove front from UKR official perhaps.

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/12/8/2140699/-Ukraine-update-Losing-this-war-is-destroying-the-Russian-mythos-and-could-destroy-Russia

 

[Harmon Rabb]

Viktor Bout had a very eventful criminal career as a gun runner.

Don't know how many of you remember the movie Lord of War. In that movie Nick Cage's character Yuri Orlov  was inspired by Bout.

Ironically enough given the circumstances in the movie Nick Cage's character was Ukrainian not Russian.

Edited December 8, 2022 by Harmon Rabb

[danfrodo]

14 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

I agree the exchange was not in the national best interests of the US.  However, the precedent for rewarding kidnapping has long ago been established.  It is why Russia kidnapped Griner in the first place.  And if the US didn't give up Bout, they'd just kidnap someone else.  Yet another reason to put Russia on the terrorist list.

I think any US citizen going to certain countries should have to sign a waiver that explicitly states that if they should get kidnapped that the US government will do nothing about it.  The choice, therefore, is on the shoulders of the individual.  Informed consent.

The US government could then use this individually signed document to say "hey, we told him/her this would happen and that they should not go.  We even told them that they would be on their own if something went wrong.  So it is what it is".

 

As a reminder to people, Putin stole a Superbowl ring from Bob Kraft (owner of the NE Patriots American Football team and big industrialist).  I just found a recently written recap of this story:

https://www.newsweek.com/vladimir-putin-stole-super-bowl-ring-robert-kraft-1691395

That's the man in charge of the country which Griner thought was such a really good idea to visit.

Steve

I must quibble a little bit w this.  Lots of westerners were in RU at the start of 2022 for various business reasons.  Greiner was there for business playing in a professional basketball leaque.  And she was arrested trying to get the F out!  Did she wait too long -- yes, probably.  There's a big difference between pre-war and now.  Anyone that would go now or in the future is a very different case.   

So let's look at others who have visited RU and ask what we would've traded to get them back -- Bob Kraft visited there (and was robbed!), Donald Trump also.  So let's not act like Greiner was some outlier who acted foolishly (other than not leaving fast enough).  LOTS of americans have gone to russian specially to kiss Putin's ***.  She went there to make some money playing bball, not to kiss up to a known murderer.

Edited December 8, 2022 by danfrodo
edit

[Battlefront.com]

I'm sure Ritter and Macgregor will say this is all part of the US-Ukrainian Nazi conspiracy to control our minds, but here it is anyways:

UN concludes Russia killed 441 civlians around Kyiv, including 57 summary executions

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

16 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

I must quibble a little bit w this.  Lots of westerners were in RU at the start of 2022 for various business reasons.  Greiner was there for business playing in a professional basketball leaque.  And she was arrested trying to get the F out!  Did she wait too long -- yes, probably.  There's a big difference between pre-war and now.  Anyone that would go now or in the future is a very different case.   

So let's look at others who have visited RU and ask what we would've traded to get them back -- Bob Kraft visited there (and was robbed!), Donald Trump also.  So let's not act like Greiner was some outlier who acted foolishly (other than not leaving fast enough).  LOTS of americans have gone to russian specially to kiss Putin's ***.  She went there to make some money playing bball, not to kiss up to a known murderer.

You missed the point.  WHY she went to Russia has nothing to do with anything, whether she went there to kiss Putin's ass or to protest his treatment of women or to play some basketball.  Not relevant one bit.

What matters is that Russia has a long history of state sponsored kidnapping.  There's people in Russian jails right now that were kidnapped YEARS ago and are rotting away.  They were just as innocent, if not more so, than Griner.  Yet the US government has not caved into ransom demands.

I am a strong believer in informed consent.  The US should be clear to people that if they choose to go to Country X, and Country X is on the naughty list, that the US government will not respond to ransom demands (prisoner swaps is a form of that).  Make them sign something explicit.

Griner went after the war started and Russia, so I'd put her down as a f'n idiot of the highest magnitude.  Maybe she wouldn't have gone if she was obligated to read and sign a statement that there was a real chance she wouldn't come back and that the US government wasn't going to negotiate with terrorists.

If Country X doesn't like the effect this has on visitation, then they can hand over all current kidnapped citizens and sign agreements to better insure it doesn't happen in the future.  It's really that simple.

Steve

[RandomCommenter]

30 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

That's the man in charge of the country which Griner thought was such a really good idea to visit.

That's a bit harsh, I think. Griner went to Russia before the 2022 Ukraine invasion (true, after the 2014 one). Russia was then a G7 country, security council member.

 

I mean, I have been to Russia for business myself (in 2008). Does that mean that I surrendered all rights for consular support?

 

But I do think that in the world we live in today that American citizens should be strongly discouraged from visiting countries such as Russia, North Korea, Iran etc.

[dan/california]

34 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

I agree the exchange was not in the national best interests of the US.  However, the precedent for rewarding kidnapping has long ago been established.  It is why Russia kidnapped Griner in the first place.  And if the US didn't give up Bout, they'd just kidnap someone else.  Yet another reason to put Russia on the terrorist list.

I think any US citizen going to certain countries should have to sign a waiver that explicitly states that if they should get kidnapped that the US government will do nothing about it.  The choice, therefore, is on the shoulders of the individual.  Informed consent.

The US government could then use this individually signed document to say "hey, we told him/her this would happen and that they should not go.  We even told them that they would be on their own if something went wrong.  So it is what it is".

 

As a reminder to people, Putin stole a Superbowl ring from Bob Kraft (owner of the NE Patriots American Football team and big industrialist).  I just found a recently written recap of this story:

https://www.newsweek.com/vladimir-putin-stole-super-bowl-ring-robert-kraft-1691395

That's the man in charge of the country which Griner thought was such a really good idea to visit.

Steve

Those fools that got kidnapped in Haiti are example A. A completely unnecessary crisis, in the middle of what already a shambles. Utterly aggravating.

[Battlefront.com]

16 minutes ago, RandomCommenter said:

That's a bit harsh, I think. Griner went to Russia before the 2022 Ukraine invasion (true, after the 2014 one). Russia was then a G7 country, security council member.

With a horrible Human Rights record that was getting worse by the year.  Russia has at least one kidnap victim in jail now for 4 years to prove it.  Yet Griner visited Russia days before the invasion (I got the date wrong in previous post), a time when the tensions between the two nations was at its highest since 2014.  She, unlike you, is a high profile figure ripe for kidnapping.  It was a really dumb time to visit Russia.

16 minutes ago, RandomCommenter said:

I mean, I have been to Russia for business myself (in 2008). Does that mean that I surrendered all rights for consular support?

That isn't what I said at all.  I said that if you were to visit Russia today you'd have to sign a waiver saying "I understand the risks of visiting Russia and that if I am arrested, for any reason real or imaginary, there may be nothing the US government can do to secure my release.  Further, I understand that the US government's policy is to not pay ransom for the return of its citizens, including swapping prisoners.  I go freely of my own will on my own responsibility and fully informed of the risks my voluntary action of visiting Russia may bring about."

Something like that.  Pretty simple.

Steve

[billbindc]

49 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

I agree the exchange was not in the national best interests of the US.  However, the precedent for rewarding kidnapping has long ago been established.  It is why Russia kidnapped Griner in the first place.  And if the US didn't give up Bout, they'd just kidnap someone else.  Yet another reason to put Russia on the terrorist list.

I think any US citizen going to certain countries should have to sign a waiver that explicitly states that if they should get kidnapped that the US government will do nothing about it.  The choice, therefore, is on the shoulders of the individual.  Informed consent.

The US government could then use this individually signed document to say "hey, we told him/her this would happen and that they should not go.  We even told them that they would be on their own if something went wrong.  So it is what it is".

 

As a reminder to people, Putin stole a Superbowl ring from Bob Kraft (owner of the NE Patriots American Football team and big industrialist).  I just found a recently written recap of this story:

https://www.newsweek.com/vladimir-putin-stole-super-bowl-ring-robert-kraft-1691395

That's the man in charge of the country which Griner thought was such a really good idea to visit.

Steve

The still definitive take on Bout: https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2012/03/05/disarming-viktor-bout

Agree with all of the above with the further observation that getting Griner out is largely *popular*. The POTUS is supplying a war that requires political buy in from Americans. This is a way to buttress that buy in. Yes, it's a moral hazard and yes, I'd love to get Whelan back too but husbanding approval for billions of arms is crucial and is certainly the key consideration above all else.

 

[billbindc]

50 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

I am sure it did and also the charges against her vs Whelan were very different. In the West we like this outcome since it's humanitarian. We have a hard time with a simple geopolitical analysis here. In Putin's sick mind he sees weakness: pot user for a cold blooded killer. Nothing more or less.

It should be noted that the Biden administration didn't prioritize Griner. They pushed for both as Whelan's family has stated themselves. The Russian government is still pretending to believe Whelan was a spy and won't deal for him yet.

[RandomCommenter]

Personally I'd love to see an operative from the US or an allied nation arrange a little "accident" for this guy Victor Bout in a few months. Maybe we could find a window for him to fall out of.

[Bulletpoint]

10 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

I said that if you were to visit Russia today you'd have to sign a waiver saying "I understand the risks of visiting Russia and that if I am arrested, for any reason real or imaginary, there may be nothing the US government can do to secure my release.  Further, I understand that the US government's policy is to not pay ransom for the return of its citizens, including swapping prisoners.  I go freely of my own will on my own responsibility and fully informed of the risks my voluntary action of visiting Russia may bring about."

Rationally, this makes perfect sense. But politics in a democracy is often more emotional than rational.

In this case, let's say she signed that paper. Later she gets arrested. Now her family and lawyer start to claim she didn't really read the paper before signing it, that she thought it was just the usual stuff you have to fill out when going abroad, etc etc.

The government could still refuse to budge, saying that's just too bad.

Legally, they would have all the right to do that.

But politically, it's a bad case. We all know how it is in modern life that we have to sign a lot of waivers and documents to do whatever. Even online. How many people even read those pages of legalese before clicking they accept the terms?

She'd also have the sympathy of a lot of people. Being American. An athlete. Using a bit of pot, many people do that. Lesbian, strong and brave, travelling to Russia to stick it to the man. And now rotting away in Putin's dungeon just because of that cruel, stubborn old US president.

It's not the kind of case you want around your neck as a politician, informed consent or not.

[OldSarge]

21 minutes ago, billbindc said:

It should be noted that the Biden administration didn't prioritize Griner. They pushed for both as Whelan's family has stated themselves. The Russian government is still pretending to believe Whelan was a spy and won't deal for him yet.

I agree, it should also be noted that in addition to Whelan there are two other Americans detained in Russia. Bill Richardson, a former NM governor, said that his organization is still working with the State Dept. for the release of those still detained.

https://news.yahoo.com/americans-detained-russia-paul-whelan-153015683.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuYmluZy5jb20v&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAJcTyEoNqW0LOjVNbCIJ3UrYsr6jEjjvH4rxvlZAAyjKFlysWgI9Pkp5akaVBF5l6iDtFKh0q6VcAHM8oxvisoipY9xwXEGFy3a5w4Tjnx4z3UGs09J1Tlom3i-CmVs5yeE3TClnCMie4kMjeuG-lDI3HD8wEwXixgCY4WU50D0Z

Quote

Marc Fogel

Fogel, a history teacher from Pittsburgh who taught the children of U.S. diplomats abroad, was detained in Moscow in August 2021. He had with him a small amount of medical marijuana he used for chronic back pain.

In June, Fogel, 61, was sentenced to 14 years at a labor camp.

The federal government has not designated Fogel as wrongfully detained.

Rep. Guy Reschenthaler (R-Pa.) introduced a resolution last month to inquire into why Fogel has not been designated as wrongfully detained.

Sarah Krivanek

Krivanek, 46, moved to Russia from Fresno, Calif., five years ago to teach at a Russian private school.

Last year, Krivanek was involved in a domestic abuse situation with her boyfriend and allegedly grabbed a knife to defend herself, nicking him slightly.

Krivanek was arrested by Russian authorities and detained for roughly a year despite her boyfriend retracting the charges.

She was released last month but detained again at a Moscow airport when she tried to leave the country, according to People magazine.

Krivanek is not incarcerated but is also not authorized to return home. She is waiting in a holding facility while she figures out how to leave Russia.

Krivanek’s friend is raising money for her release on GoFundMe.

The State Department told People that requests to talk to Krivanek have been repeatedly denied or delayed by Russian authorities.

 

Edited December 8, 2022 by OldSarge
Correct formatting

[sburke]

58 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

You missed the point.  WHY she went to Russia has nothing to do with anything, whether she went there to kiss Putin's *** or to protest his treatment of women or to play some basketball.  Not relevant one bit.

What matters is that Russia has a long history of state sponsored kidnapping.  There's people in Russian jails right now that were kidnapped YEARS ago and are rotting away.  They were just as innocent, if not more so, than Griner.  Yet the US government has not caved into ransom demands.

I am a strong believer in informed consent.  The US should be clear to people that if they choose to go to Country X, and Country X is on the naughty list, that the US government will not respond to ransom demands (prisoner swaps is a form of that).  Make them sign something explicit.

Griner went after the war started and Russia, so I'd put her down as a f'n idiot of the highest magnitude.  Maybe she wouldn't have gone if she was obligated to read and sign a statement that there was a real chance she wouldn't come back and that the US government wasn't going to negotiate with terrorists.

If Country X doesn't like the effect this has on visitation, then they can hand over all current kidnapped citizens and sign agreements to better insure it doesn't happen in the future.  It's really that simple.

Steve

while generally I agree, it isn't a realistic proposition unless the US actually deals with the larger issue.  my old company for example had an office in Russia.  To expect no one from any office outside the country would visit means the US expectation is NO US citizen would be doing any business with Russia.  That implies the US making that the default position. i.e., declare them a terrorist state and get it over with.

Edited December 8, 2022 by sburke

[danfrodo]

2 minutes ago, sburke said:

Griner went after the war started and Russia, so I'd put her down as a f'n idiot of the highest magnitude.  Maybe she wouldn't have gone if she was obligated to read and sign a statement that there was a real chance she wouldn't come back and that the US government wasn't going to negotiate with terrorists.

She went after?   Well, dang, I was defintely wrong.  I thought she was already there and (stupidly) just didn't get out on until too late.  OK, I stand corrected on that. 

[danfrodo]

56 minutes ago, RandomCommenter said:

That's a bit harsh, I think. Griner went to Russia before the 2022 Ukraine invasion (true, after the 2014 one). Russia was then a G7 country, security council member.

wait a minute, so I was not wrong after all??

[RandomCommenter]

3 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

wait a minute, so I was not wrong after all??

Yes, you were not wrong.

She was arrested on Feb 17.

https://people.com/sports/brittney-griner-russia-arrest-and-trial-timeline/

 

[Reclaimer]

3 hours ago, Seedorf81 said:

About going quiet to execution.

If you do a tiny bit of not very difficult research you'll find that nearly all people who know that they're gonna be executed, are usually strangely docile. That behaviour is way more "normal" than resisting.

See:

Jews being shot by Einsatzgruppen

Chinese being buried alive ( or beheaded or shot etc) by the Japanese.

French, Dutch, Belgian, Greek, Yugoslav, Russian (etc etc) partisans being hanged or shot by Germans.

Russians executed by early RED army, White Army, Gpoe, KGB etc,

German warcriminals behing hanged, strangled or shot by Poles, Dutch, Americans, Tsjechs etc,

Iranians hanged by their government,

and the list is very, very long.

I don't know why, but it is very rare that people put up a fight.

I'm aware that there is a lot of well documented history of people being quite docile in the face of execution. I don't want to go off topic, but I don't personally find it all that strange. In the examples you cited, I'd argue that based on the photos, videos (in the rare cases that they exist), and descriptions we have of these events, those being executed generally have basically no chance of actually escaping execution. The choice they're faced with is certain death by execution or certain death in a act of resistance. I can't imagine being forced to make that choice - but it also doesn't surprise me that the majority of people would not choose to "go out in a blaze of glory". I have my own theory as to why that is, but I'm not a psychologist, so I'll keep it to myself.

But, in the video in question, I'd argue the situation is quite different. There are three prisoners and four guards, so the prisoners are barely outnumbered. Additionally, until the very end, the guards also remain within an arms length of the prisoners at all times. I'm not arguing that overpowering the guards would be a high likelihood proposition, but it seems like there would be a real possibility of success in this instance. There's a reason, after all, that in civilian prisons, the guards who are armed are kept physically separated from the prisoners.

The behavior of the prisoners alone isn't what has me convinced (barring new evidence to the contrary) that this video is staged. Instead, the behavior of the prisoners, taken together with the other stuff I mentioned in my original post, as well as that which @Bulletpoint and @Anon052 pointed out makes me feel pretty confident that this video is staged.

[sross112]

Ok, time for me to be the bad guy. 

I don't care if "a little bit of pot" for "medicinal use" is normalized in your country. If it is illegal in the country you are visiting you are in the stupid category for possessing it. Especially if that country is one like Russia that will throw you into a hard labor camp for 15 years for your "medicine". You have the choice, you make the choice, you play stupid games, you win stupid prizes.

There is a huge difference between being kidnapped and arrested. If you didn't break any laws then you were kidnapped. If you did, you were arrested. Saying that these people were kidnapped when they were actually arrested for violating the laws of their host country takes away from those that are actually kidnapped when visiting foreign countries. Words matter. Afterall, there are a whole bunch of foreign nationals held in western prisons for crimes they have committed and they do not fall under the "kidnapped" category. 

I'm all for the US Gov doing everything they can to free it's kidnapped citizens around the world including direct military intervention against terrorist groups that use it as a means to fund themselves. The humanist in me says they should do what they can within reason to secure the release of a pot smoker sentenced to 15 years of hard labor as the punishment doesn't fit the crime to my soft western mentality. More of a human rights or cruel and unusual punishment issue to me.

[Bulletpoint]

2 minutes ago, Reclaimer said:

The choice they're faced with is certain death by execution or certain death in a act of resistance. I can't imagine being forced to make that choice - but it also doesn't surprise me that the majority of people would not choose to "go out in a blaze of glory".

Also, there have been several cases of people subjected to mock executions, maybe not a high chance but still better than the chance if you start to fight or flee. And in some cases, people have survived executions by playing dead after not being hit properly.

In some cases, the guys shooting are maybe not even wanting to kill you but they are ordered to. Slim chances in all those cases but better than none if you start to fight back.

[Battlefront.com]

11 minutes ago, sross112 said:

Ok, time for me to be the bad guy. 

I don't care if "a little bit of pot" for "medicinal use" is normalized in your country. If it is illegal in the country you are visiting you are in the stupid category for possessing it. Especially if that country is one like Russia that will throw you into a hard labor camp for 15 years for your "medicine". You have the choice, you make the choice, you play stupid games, you win stupid prizes.

There is a huge difference between being kidnapped and arrested. If you didn't break any laws then you were kidnapped. If you did, you were arrested. Saying that these people were kidnapped when they were actually arrested for violating the laws of their host country takes away from those that are actually kidnapped when visiting foreign countries. Words matter. Afterall, there are a whole bunch of foreign nationals held in western prisons for crimes they have committed and they do not fall under the "kidnapped" category. 

I'm all for the US Gov doing everything they can to free it's kidnapped citizens around the world including direct military intervention against terrorist groups that use it as a means to fund themselves. The humanist in me says they should do what they can within reason to secure the release of a pot smoker sentenced to 15 years of hard labor as the punishment doesn't fit the crime to my soft western mentality. More of a human rights or cruel and unusual punishment issue to me.

Yeah, I am also a firm believer in "do the crime, do the time".  But you'd have to be an absolute fool to think that Griner did not have the book thrown at her because of who she is and the fact that Russia knew it was about to launch a war that was going to have dire consequences.  In fact, we don't even know that she really had the stuff on her or not.  The only word we have on that is Russia's.  Griner's "confession" is absolutely unreliable at face value as people sign false confessions all the time, even in nice democracies.  Plus, it was reported by her family that her mental state went down the tubes really, really fast.

You've never struck me as a fool, so I'll assume you meant to include these possibilites

Steve

[danfrodo]

3 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Yeah, I am also a firm believer in "do the crime, do the time".  But you'd have to be an absolute fool to think that Griner did not have the book thrown at her because of who she is and the fact that Russia knew it was about to launch a war that was going to have dire consequences.  In fact, we don't even know that she really had the stuff on her or not.  The only word we have on that is Russia's.  Griner's "confession" is absolutely unreliable at face value as people sign false confessions all the time, even in nice democracies.  Plus, it was reported by her family that her mental state went down the tubes really, really fast.

You've never struck me as a fool, so I'll assume you meant to include these possibilites

Steve

yeah, the pot may or not have been planted.  And interesting they caught it on her going out of RU, not coming in with it.  If they hadn't gotten her for pot, they could've just charged her for being gay.  Or whatever other nonsense they wanted.  It was a kidnapping.  

I wonder if the hostages are one of the reasons US has held off on designating RU/Putin as a terrorist entity.