How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Kinophile]

19 minutes ago, MikeyD said:

Germany long ago eschewed a 'guns and butter' government spending policy in favor of a 'butter and more butter' policy. I recall circa 2015 it was said the Donbas 'rebels' had a larger active tank force than the Bundeswehr did. I didn't really expect Germany to abruptly reverse course and become Europe's 'arsenal for democracy', especially with a global recession looming.

About Russian sanctions, winter and conscription. We've seen, on a smaller scale, how badly things can snowball in a crisis. Remember the great toilet paper shortage of 2020? When the population starts to panic keeping store shelves stocked becomes an impossible task, even in the best of conditions. Also, lets recall the Covid distribution bottleneck. When truckers disappear goods stop getting distributed. Now replace the word 'Covid' with the word 'conscription' and imagine the problems Russia has created for itself.

Well put

[Beleg85]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

To question 1 I would add “identity”.   As we have discussed here the one thing Russia cannot tolerate is an identity crisis - losing this war could trigger a fatal one.

To be precise, strict Kremlin's elites (and probably not even majority of them)+ maybe hard nats weirdos cannot accept defeat as they imagine Russia loosing their identity. Common people including many members of state apparatus are nowhere near enough convinced this war is existentional. But they are Russians, so unless sanctions will start to bite their assess directly, and hard- they simply don't care.

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

I think it is deeper than that.  They cannot lose to Ukraine - to do so would show all the cracks in the foundation of a nation that has been inherently unstable since the fall of the Czar.  So this war started as a demonstration of power intended to push NATO back and shore up an internal narrative - Putin has not been subtle in his speeches on this point.  To lose now would likely break them. This would be like the US invading Mexico and getting crushed, pretty damaging to the whole internal framework on a lotta levels.

So now they stuck their heads into a hornets nest and can’t get out.  If it wasn’t for the nuclear arsenal and all the death and destruction it would be hilarious.  What is bad is that I do not think Russia knows how to lose this war and suddenly the West has to figure it out for them so we don’t go down really bad paths.

This.

And now question of how far are we decided to go with our resolve becomes once again central. We already know Ukraine fight like small wolverine, and bite harder than most analysts imagined. Do West has any decision center where shots are called what next course of action should be? Problem is that to throw Russians some ropes, we first ourselves need to know how they look like. And frankly I don't see any coherent response now, except habitual headducking of undecided leaders like Scholz.

Recent suggestion that US is warping its ammo production for next 3-4 years does not sound promising, to be frank.

[ed.  I see a lot of this was alredy sufficently discussed before posting, so sorry for doubling issues].

Edited December 6, 2022 by Beleg85

[acrashb]

3 hours ago, Kinophile said:

Yes but look at Oryx's photo - there's visibly a base object that has a "skin" of concrete, no?

Others (Steve?) have said it would be cheaper to just pour concrete.  but a plywood tetrahedron, or a plastic one - a cheap pour mold, not injection - with junk recycled plastic, or a cheap mild steel tack-welded together, or somefink, would work and would explain the picture.  Not freeze-thaw, not with so clean a fracture line. 

2 hours ago, The_Capt said:

So this is something I have been mulling for some time - reverse political effect.  So 5-EYES has China, the US has basically pulled us all in and said “pick a side, now.”

It may be having some effect, and about time.  China has agents in MP offices (influencing policy), spends in the low millions annually to affect public discourse, aka "will", and has an obvious mouthpiece in the Senate - all in Canada for those wondering.

Perhaps this will be the start of something real and not just posturing: https://nationalpost.com/news/politics/liberals-foreign-agent-registry

 

Edited December 6, 2022 by acrashb

[Haiduk]

11 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

maybe hard nats weirdos cannot accept defeat as they imagine Russia loosing their identity.

All much worse. They concerned not for identity, but... alas, I can't find this TG post of one of Russian propagandists, but his takes were briefly like that: our lose to Ukriane will call into question the natural advantage of Russians over Ukrainians.    

[NamEndedAllen]

8 hours ago, The_Capt said:

our ability to create an artificial environment

I am interested in what you are pointing towards, but need clarity on specifically what you mean by artificial environment…as something different in evolution.  I don’t quite get your term, “artificial”. What are you distinguishing from many other species who craft their environments, altering it and over time, themselves? Or are you using the term as a synonym for tool use, language -  culture?? For an example of the former, and for whatever reason, beavers’ impact on the North American continent has been getting attention the past few years. Turns out as the keystone species, they shaped much of the North American continent for themselves and other species. Only recognized as such as they were largely wiped out and much of the wet lands dried up.
“To acknowledge that beaver create environments that store water and help sustain other creatures is insufficient. Beaver are nothing less than continent-scale forces of nature and in part responsible for sculpting the land upon which Americans built their communities.” 
- Ben Goldfarb in Eager: The Surprising Secret Life of Beaver, 2018

On a far less visible extent, what I think you refer to happens in our soil, now far more understood as research into the mycelium web that links all trees in forests, altering and creating their entire environment into a single integrated, signaling and nutrient network. 
 

Safly, I guess we are straying from the forum topic, although the evolution of war, of weapons (tools, more generally speaking) is certainly in the pocket here.

[Beleg85]

21 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

All much worse. They concerned not for identity, but... alas, I can't find this TG post of one of Russian propagandists, but his takes were briefly like that: our lose to Ukriane will call into question the natural advantage of Russians over Ukrainians.    

Sounds like Krasovsky, he is one of most hawkish ones. But could be told even by Simonyan. They all go nuts because of their imperial impotence.

[danfrodo]

16 minutes ago, NamEndedAllen said:

“To acknowledge that beaver create environments that store water and help sustain other creatures is insufficient. Beaver are nothing less than continent-scale forces of nature and in part responsible for sculpting the land upon which Americans built their communities.” 
- Ben Goldfarb in Eager: The Surprising Secret Life of Beaver, 2018

DUDE!  That was a GREAT book!   And the college down the street from me has mascot of beaver.  Benny Beaver to be precise. so I clearly an expert on this subject.      I do know that this is a big sideshow on what should be UKR war thread, but I had to respond.

(and now the forum will pounce to tell me how it's actually not a great book.  But it's still a great book .  And so is Three Body Problem)

[acrashb]

Here is a good summary of Western learning to date.  I say "good" because it aligns with what is brought forward on this forum.  Too many good quotes, best to read it all, but I do like the opening line, "In battle nothing is ever as good or as bad as the first reports of excited men would have it.”

Paywall, you can get past it:

https://www.economist.com/europe/2022/11/30/what-is-the-war-in-ukraine-teaching-western-armies

 

Edited December 6, 2022 by acrashb

[NamEndedAllen]

24 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

DUDE!  That was a GREAT book!   And the college down the street from me has mascot of beaver.  Benny Beaver to be precise. so I clearly an expert on this subject.      I do know that this is a big sideshow on what should be UKR war thread, but I had to respond.

(and now the forum will pounce to tell me how it's actually not a great book.  But it's still a great book .  And so is Three Body Problem)

Then you are living on the turf of the Cursed Beavers! Conquerors of The Ducks in the Civil War! But seriously, the shaping of the earth by beavers in our country was a revelation to me. Who knew? 

Ruhroh…we have run off the road here.

[NamEndedAllen]

10 hours ago, The_Capt said:

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/culture/article/mongolia-genghis-khan-dna
And now I am wondering about the role disease plays. War as an environmental construct affects more than men.  Entire populations are impacted through secondary effects such as disease and famine.

Further if trauma can be passed on epigenetically - https://www.psycom.net/trauma/epigenetics-trauma

And there is a link between epigenetic and mutation -https://www.nature.com/scitable/topicpage/epigenetic-influences-and-disease-895/
Then the overall effect of war on humanity is potentially much broader and deeper than one would expect from normal evolutionary processes.  This also establishes a potential link between cultural evolution and physical evolution.

Which apparently is being debated in the anthropological community -

https://cpb-eu-w2.wpmucdn.com/blogs.lincoln.ac.uk/dist/7/8056/files/2019/12/2019-Majolo-Evol-Anthropol-002.pdf

 

Yes! Exciting area of research. The caveat is that the effect fades after several generations because the methylation doesn’t change the DNA, only the expression of existing segments on the chromosome. For a while. Separately, have you read Jared Diamond’s “Guns, Germs, and Steel”? If not, I think it was written for you, so don’t delay. It is a great example of how asking one simple question can lead to enormous implications.

War as we define it (anthropologically) is a modern invention. Certainly true in its planetary population wide impact on any genetic level evolution, but could affect some features in the future. The widespread impact of resulting pollution, from the vast industrial wastes to the destruction and spread of contaminants to the aftermath spread of diseases…and ultimately and absolutely critical aspect of reproduction (without which, no evolution!) does affect the health of most if not all species involved.

I certainly would agree that *some* selection is likely to occur during war time, in various ways. I just haven’t seen any significant (genetic, evolutionary) evidence in the journal literature. That’s apart from the  eternal elimination of one population group by an encroaching one. Thus is happening since time eternal. And lest anyone have any illusions about ANY “purity” of populations (and thus “races”), ALL of the population groups since before humans separated from cousin ancestral groups have intermixed by conquering groups mating with captured, surviving females. The evidence from both present and prehistoric DNA is unequivocal. For instance, we all carry varying small DNA sequences from Neandertals. AND several other hominid, but non-Homo sapiens. No “pure” race exists, anywhere. 

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, acrashb said:

Others (Steve?) have said it would be cheaper to just pour concrete.  but a plywood tetrahedron, or a plastic one - a cheap pour mold, not injection - with junk recycled plastic, or a cheap mild steel tack-welded together, or somefink, would work and would explain the picture.  Not freeze-thaw, not with so clean a fracture line.

I doubt there's a mix of techniques.  Whomever is building these are most likely be paid per tooth.  Sure, you can build one out of plywood, crappy steel plate, or just about anything ridged enough to hold a concrete facade.  But at scale?  Nope, pouring concrete would be vastly cheaper than anything else.  You can have dozens of frames ready, pour at once, and bingo... dozens of teeth.  Other materials require some degree of hand assembly.

But you know what's even cheaper than concrete?  Badly mixed and poorly set rushed concrete

Having just done a cement slab myself, I can attest that there's a quick way and a right way to do one

Steve

[The_Capt]

1 hour ago, NamEndedAllen said:

I am interested in what you are pointing towards, but need clarity on specifically what you mean by artificial environment…as something different in evolution.  I don’t quite get your term, “artificial”.

As in entirely fictional and man made. There is no natural environment construct that would drive Russians and Ukraines to kill each other - we (mankind) artificially created it essentially out of nothing accept our imaginations and emotions.  War itself creates a very real artificial physical environment and applies direct evolutionary pressure - see Kilcullen’s weak spin on this - https://academic.oup.com/book/33631/chapter-abstract/288151079?redirectedFrom=fulltext&login=false but the underlying premise is solid in how we observed terror organizations evolve over 20 years. The real question is how does the impact of these punctuated constructed environments have on us over time? 

Or as you point out - “how long does is stick?”  Very good question.  One could argue a single wars effects are accelerating but limited to perhaps a generation or two.  However we see. To have been doing this at scale for quite awhile:

This one does not show Mongols and Crusades, nor Three Kingdoms wars - which were some of the largest per capita impact wars in history.  The point being how does 5 thousand years of big wars and maybe 100k years of micro-wars effect human beings at a genetic level?  Social? Cultural?

Does the acceleration effect stack up over time?  What is interesting about that graphic is that wars appear to almost be 1) continuous as small, and 2) cyclical - almost by generations, for the large.  Have we changed how we reproduce as a result?  We have definitely changed how we access energy from the environment to do this better…again all artificial self-inflicted pressure.

Unlike beavers who do shape their environment directly - war creates an artificial environment to shape its creators.  It has propelled us on many levels.

47 minutes ago, NamEndedAllen said:

For a while. Separately, have you read Jared Diamond’s “Guns, Germs, and Steel”?

I have read that one along with The Third Chimpanzee and Collapse.  Harari as well.  For a really grounded look at pre-historic warfare, to see just how far it’s impact reaches, read (if you have not already) Lawrence Keely’s War Before Civilization and Azar Gat’s War in Human Civilization - and even give old John Keegan’s A History of Warfare a go.

There is surprisingly little on pre-historic warfare and it’s potential impact on humanity.

54 minutes ago, NamEndedAllen said:

I certainly would agree that *some* selection is likely to occur during war time, in various ways. I just haven’t seen any significant (genetic, evolutionary) evidence in the journal literature. That’s apart from the  eternal elimination of one population group by an encroaching one. Thus is happening since time eternal.

I think the effects of war go beyond the death count and direct selective pressure.  One could argue its effects in this arena occurred when our populations were very small.  I think the effects of wide scale trauma, social and cultural pressures has driven us far further and faster as a species, even down to the genetic level, than it would have without it.  The big question to my mind is “do we own the process or does the process own us” with respect to warfare - and the jury is very much out on this one.

[kevinkin]

Apparent cyberattack on Russian bank and tanks in the news:

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/06/russia-ukraine-live-updates.html

Good cop/bad cop:

https://www.wionews.com/world/not-encouraging-ukraine-strikes-into-russia-says-us-540719

Edited December 7, 2022 by kevinkin

[Battlefront.com]

Rare glimpse of the scale of death on the Ukrainian side.  French Ambassador visits a very fresh looking graveyard in Dnipro:

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarRoom/comments/zeb11q/on_armed_forces_of_ukraine_day_the_french/

There's a lot of flags in this one shot

Steve

[Beleg85]

4 hours ago, The_Capt said:

This one does not show Mongols and Crusades, nor Three Kingdoms wars - which were some of the largest per capita impact wars in history.  The point being how does 5 thousand years of big wars and maybe 100k years of micro-wars effect human beings at a genetic level?  Social? Cultural?

Just a note- I would be very sceptical of any global data-driven graphics of this kind showing supposedly pre-modern (and well into modernity) population data. We have this fixation to count everything, but due to state of our sources it is not possible for too many regions in and outside Europe. XVI-cent. onward in Netherlands, Britain, Sweden, parts of France- maybe. But for the rest it is more of a guess. For example we still cannot reliably tell how many people died during 30-years War or Deluge in PL-LIT Commonwealth; could be from 10% to whooping 40% of pre-war population, depending on scholar.

4 hours ago, The_Capt said:

I have read that one along with The Third Chimpanzee and Collapse.  Harari as well.  For a really grounded look at pre-historic warfare, to see just how far it’s impact reaches, read (if you have not already) Lawrence Keely’s War Before Civilization and Azar Gat’s War in Human Civilization - and even give old John Keegan’s A History of Warfare a go.

There is surprisingly little on pre-historic warfare and it’s potential impact on humanity.

Azar Gat is indeed good read. There are some readings on pre-historic warfare (pre-metal era), but beyond descriptions of tools and theory of their use we can say almost nothing for certain. Not enough traces left. And of course researching "primitive" societies in i.e. Amazonia or New Guinea can only take us thus far- they also evolved, or may not be representative. Some are actually controlling their environment not less vigorously than settled civilizations, albeit in different ways.

Edited December 7, 2022 by Beleg85

[dan/california]

4 hours ago, The_Capt said:

As in entirely fictional and man made. There is no natural environment construct that would drive Russians and Ukraines to kill each other - we (mankind) artificially created it essentially out of nothing accept our imaginations and emotions.  War itself creates a very real artificial physical environment and applies direct evolutionary pressure - see Kilcullen’s weak spin on this - https://academic.oup.com/book/33631/chapter-abstract/288151079?redirectedFrom=fulltext&login=false but the underlying premise is solid in how we observed terror organizations evolve over 20 years. The real question is how does the impact of these punctuated constructed environments have on us over time? 

Or as you point out - “how long does is stick?”  Very good question.  One could argue a single wars effects are accelerating but limited to perhaps a generation or two.  However we see. To have been doing this at scale for quite awhile:

This one does not show Mongols and Crusades, nor Three Kingdoms wars - which were some of the largest per capita impact wars in history.  The point being how does 5 thousand years of big wars and maybe 100k years of micro-wars effect human beings at a genetic level?  Social? Cultural?

Does the acceleration effect stack up over time?  What is interesting about that graphic is that wars appear to almost be 1) continuous as small, and 2) cyclical - almost by generations, for the large.  Have we changed how we reproduce as a result?  We have definitely changed how we access energy from the environment to do this better…again all artificial self-inflicted pressure.

Unlike beavers who do shape their environment directly - war creates an artificial environment to shape its creators.  It has propelled us on many levels.

I have read that one along with The Third Chimpanzee and Collapse.  Harari as well.  For a really grounded look at pre-historic warfare, to see just how far it’s impact reaches, read (if you have not already) Lawrence Keely’s War Before Civilization and Azar Gat’s War in Human Civilization - and even give old John Keegan’s A History of Warfare a go.

There is surprisingly little on pre-historic warfare and it’s potential impact on humanity.

I think the effects of war go beyond the death count and direct selective pressure.  One could argue its effects in this arena occurred when our populations were very small.  I think the effects of wide scale trauma, social and cultural pressures has driven us far further and faster as a species, even down to the genetic level, than it would have without it.  The big question to my mind is “do we own the process or does the process own us” with respect to warfare - and the jury is very much out on this one.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5048219/

 

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4389623/#RSPB20150339C40

6000 years ago a relatively homogenous group of farmers on the very southern edge of Europe figured out something, and and took over most of the continent rather quickly, and rather thoroughly. My money is that were not very nice about it, but the evidence either way is sort of sketchy. Then three thousand years ago people who spoke the ancestral language to about every European language except Basque moved in from the Steppes in a similarly swift fashion. These events show up clearly in the genetic data, as well as the archaeological record. Studies above, and their footnotes list a hundred more. This is a very active field of research, the ability to extract and read DNA has been improving exponentially.

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/17/magazine/ancient-dna-research.html?searchResultPosition=3

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/30/science/from-ancient-dna-a-clearer-picture-of-europeans-today.html?searchResultPosition=4

 

Edit: One of the many sad things about this war is that there are some important sites from both periods in Ukraine.

https://www.nytimes.com/1966/06/08/archives/5000yearold-house-found.html?searchResultPosition=4

 

Edited December 7, 2022 by dan/california

[Battlefront.com]

OK, I took a look at a high res picture of the dragon's teeth.  Yeah, something fishy about them for sure:

https://i.redd.it/atyw7lc2qa4a1.png

Click on the link and you can zoom in on it.

I'm not quite sure what to make of it.  For sure it's not solid concrete.  The backing of the pointy top seems to only go down far enough for the steel lift point.  What's going on with the rest of it, or the speculation that it's hollow, can't be seen from this image.  Heck, from this angle it looks more 2 sided than anything!

When this started there was a video of them deploying more solid looking versions.  I'm sure there's a lot of variation:

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

Story about a platoon sized Russian mobik group that abandoned their positions and was then shot down by a barrier unit.  Who knows if this is true, but it sure does fit in with all kinds of desertion and conflict stuff we've been seeing as of late:

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/12/6/7379578/

Steve

[sross112]

8 hours ago, womble said:

I think the West joining in with more earnest would be the trigger that Putin needs to capitulate and remain in charge. He can't lose to Ukraine, but he can perhaps, spin an "honourable surrender" to the "overwhelming force" of NATO. Even to the point of withdrawing from Ukraine (including Crimea) entirely.

I'm totally with you and agree that this is a way out for Putin. However, it would also fit in with Russia and their constant say one thing and do another. They have gone on forever how the decadent westerners are weak and pathetic, a bunch of woke homosexuals, couldn't fight themselves out of a wet paper bag, etc and then use these same people as the big bad boogeymen that beat them. Yep, it would totally make sense in Russian from what I've seen the past few months.  

[Offshoot]

A report by the Skala Battalion, a recon unit fighting around Bakhmut. It has subtitles and from about the halfway point has info about the terrain and enemy movements.

They also have a relatively recent Twitter channel that might be interesting going forward.

 

[Fernando]

6 hours ago, The_Capt said:

 

This one does not show Mongols and Crusades, nor Three Kingdoms wars - which were some of the largest per capita impact wars in history.  The point being how does 5 thousand years of big wars and maybe 100k years of micro-wars effect human beings at a genetic level?  Social? Cultural?

 

I wouldn't trust that table at 100%. Just one example: The war "of Spanish Revolution" (the first time ever I have found the Spanish Civil War named that way) is close to 75 deaths x 100.000. However the world population in 1936 was about 2,1 billions. That means that according to above table total deaths during our Civil War were more than 1.5 million people, but total losses, military and civilian, are estimated at not much more  than 500.000 people, which is one third of the rate shown on the table. 

[Zeleban]

Mashovets...

1. The command of the enemy troops continues to apply measures aimed at slowing down the advance of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the northern part of the Luhansk region of Ukraine. In particular, in the area of Tavilzhanka - Bolshoy Vyselok - Tokarevka - Olshana, tactical reserves are being concentrated in order to strengthen the enemy grouping operating in the Dvurechensky direction.

 

Namely - over the past 3 days, the 3rd motorized rifle battalion of the 138th motorized rifle brigade (without one company) and at least 2 battalions of the 1486th SME of the territorial troops of Russia were concentrated here. This group was assigned at least 1 howitzer artillery battalion (three-battery composition) and a tank company (up to 8 tanks), intended for operations directly together with this group.

2. As part of the same task, the enemy strike tactical group to the south (namely, to the west of Kremennaya) again tried to launch a counteroffensive from the Dibrova area in the direction of the village. Torskoe and with. Yampolevka ... However, once again - unsuccessfully for them ...

It is obvious that these attacks are coordinated with the enemy’s attempts to push back the forward units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the area of Belogorivka, since the enemy is very worried about the fact that the Ukrainian troops in this place are actually 7 km from the northwestern outskirts of Lysichansk.

The meaning of the enemy's offensive actions in the area of Dibrova, by all indications, testifies to the enemy's attempt to solve this problem by "entering the rear" of the Ukrainian units operating near Belogorovka.

At the same time, most likely, the tactical command of the enemy does not take into account the fact that the left flank of this group of Ukrainian troops is covered by the Seversky Donets ... it acts as if it can cross this river on the move and without hindrance, both "there and from there"...

 

To build up efforts in these two directions, as I already wrote ... the enemy pulled up 1 "reinforced" battalion of the "mobilization reserve" of the 1st AK and a number of units of the 2nd CAA and 41st CAA with a total strength - up to a battalion.

[Zeleban]

3. In the area of Ugledar, the enemy continues to regroup his forces and assets at the tactical level, trying to restore the level of combat effectiveness of his strike tactical groups, which had previously tried to break through to Ugledar from the south through Pavlovka.

 

In the area of the villages of Nikolskoye and Vladimirovka, the enemy is pulling up reserves from the 58th CAA (probably, on the northern outskirts of Blagodatne, the BTGr from the 136th Motorized Rifle Brigade was replenished with manpower and weapons and military equipment), according to certain signs, a number of units of the airborne forces of the Russian Federation are being transferred to the same area ( probably from the 76th airborne division). Most likely, the enemy will soon try to resume offensive operations, both directly in the Ugledar region and to the east.

 

This is just as obvious as the general desire of the enemy command to break through to the north of the conditional line Bolshaya Novoselka - Vuhledar as part of an operational-tactical operation to "reach the borders of the Donetsk region" ... I think that in the near future the attention of the command of the 58th and 8th CAA of the Southern Military District of the Russian army will be focused on the fulfillment of this particular task ... In addition, of course, to ensure "reliable defense" in the Melitopol and Berdyansk directions ...

4. For two days the enemy has been continuously attacking the forward positions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the entire sector of the front from Kurdyumovka to Berestovoye, concentrating the main efforts in the Bakhmut area.

To the north of Bakhmut, the enemy is pulling up two rifle battalions of the "mobilization reserve" of the 1st AK, obviously with the goal of bringing them into battle in the next 2-3 days as a build-up of "manpower" for stubborn attacks on Bakhmutskoye and ... Another such "non-battalion" of the so-called "mobilization reserve", but this time the 2nd AK, the enemy is pulling up to the south of Bakhmut, with the clear intention of throwing him into the attack, either on Kleschievka, or along the direction of Oprosnoe - Bakhmut.

Now, on the south-eastern outskirts of Bakhmut, fierce close battles in the private sector between units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and assault detachments of the Wagner PMC are almost continuously continuing, the enemy is striving to break through Fyodor Maksimenko Street at any cost and break into the city to the west of the city dump ... the sides of Oprosnoe and Ivangrad.

It is also obvious that his gradual increase in efforts south of Bakhmut in the Klishchievka area, where assault detachments of the Wagner PMC and several units of the southeast are also involved, is aimed at a general breakthrough to Ivanovsky ... In this case, the general position of the Bakhmut defense area is sharply get worse.

[kraze]

On 12/4/2022 at 5:18 PM, sburke said:

not a single fact in there, just your usual characterizations with that broad brush.

no different from you telling me that people who are invading my country are in fact against the invasion then

[kraze]

On 12/4/2022 at 3:49 PM, Beleg85 said:

Unlike in Russia, all polls and believeable info shows extremely low support for war among general population. We don't know true support for regime except it was low enough to almost topple it in 2020- scale of it was nothing like Russian "oppositon marches" in 2012. Almost whole civilized world agreed that Belarussians showed middle finger to Lukashenka during elections, which were of course heavly falsified (again, unlike in Russia, where Putin still could probbaly win legally even if real democratic procedures existed). You also skipped the fact that population was pacified before the war- long-lasting wave of protests 2 years ago that was widely, brutally repressed by regime, more in fact than Russian liberals ever were. And yet, they lasted for several months. That's why Lukashenka power is so fragile, even Putin most probably knows it is not prudent to gamble on their support for war.

Also unlike Russians, Belarussian opposition actually communaly do something with their fate. How it is that they field entire strong regiment in Ukraine alone, while much cherished "Russian Legion" is several persons? There were dozens of high public figures and diplomats turning on Lukashenka's power. Even now they are organizing here basic shooting trainings for emigree civilians in case they would need them, according to Belsat TV (who shouldn't betray such info btw.) there were hundreds if not thousands of participants.

Yes, that's how it looks in western media. 10 mln of poor belarussians being oppressed by a single evil Lukashenko that has no popular support. It's a very cozy, comfortable worldview that so many had towards russians back in March but "sadly" was stripped away, isn't it?

It's also helped by the fact that in western world you don't have the "luxury" of talking to belarussians, who, after yet another attack on our people from THEIR territory, come to our groups and start condescendingly "supporting" us, telling us how they are sorry and how they are all victims of the occupation just like us. Oh yes getting paid for providing dentist services to those whole 9000 russian mobiks that your military buddy living across the street also trains for money - in a well lit, warm town is absolutely the same as dying to their bombs in Mariupol. Imagine the horror of getting paid by russians themselves to deliver looted washing machines back to Russia, how can anyone survive that?

Maybe I just don't get how anti-war they are because they aren't writing "we are victims just like you" on artillery shells they keep delivering to Russia.

So yeah keep living in your pretty fantasy world with evil dictators and poor oppressed population, I will just keep considering belorussians to be absolute effed up assholes they really are.

Edited December 7, 2022 by kraze