How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Haiduk]

Spanish and Lithuanian 105 mm additionally to L118

 

Edited November 27, 2022 by Haiduk

[JonS]

Good grief - L5s? M101s?

Someone has been clearing out their warehouses.

[Jiggathebauce]

Been on vacation so i haven't had time to watch this, but was wondering if anyone else had the chance to see this army university press video - skimming the comments, seems like criticism is that they still want to overestimate Russian capabilities and think of them as near peers. 

 

[dan/california]

https://substack.com/profile/101117237-cristian-dorobantu

Interesting writer. He is some some functionary in either the Romanian MOD, or a parliamentary adviser on defense issues. 

[danfrodo]

44 minutes ago, JonS said:

Good grief - L5s? M101s?

Someone has been clearing out their warehouses.

Seems like a really good idea to me because it will lighten the load on the 155mm supplies, which are limited.  If there's tons of these unwanted shells & tubes laying around, heck yes ship them & use them.  I am sure the poor bastards defending Bakhmut would applaud this.  If there's thousands of shells available it could be a big help.  I am picturing RU human waves being smashed by these weapons.  Why expend precious 155mm ammo on that when it could be used instead to disrupt the enemy in depth?

What's the range on these? 

Edited November 27, 2022 by danfrodo
addition

[Fenris]

Around 10km from memory.

[kevinkin]

A few interesting tidbits in this running report today:

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2022/11/27/ukraine-live-updates-russia-could-abandon-zaporizhzhia-nuke-plant/10784504002/

Edited November 27, 2022 by kevinkin

[Fenris]

Current conditions

 

Edited November 27, 2022 by Fenris

[NamEndedAllen]

For those keeping track of the USA government long term commitment to supplying and supporting Ukraine in similar degree as the Biden Administration, the incoming Republican House members and their newly powerful positions as Committee chairpersons keep signaling what likely Speaker of the House promised: much tougher examinations and scrutiny of Ukraine and money for weapons. While this may not turn the spigot off, make no mistake that their loud parallels to Russian propaganda to undermine USA public support will shift public opinion. It will be tied to loud indictments about the USA economy, inflation and inevitably as announced already, Hunter Biden. We do not yet know how much this may slow or reduce support, but the 2024 election cycle is obviously in their sights.

House Republicans, who will hold a slim majority in the next Congress, have warned the Biden administration to expect far tougher oversight of the extensive military assistance provided to Ukraine in the war with Russia, The Washington Post reports.  

Ukraine live briefing: Republicans call for thttps://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/11/27/russia-ukraine-war-latest-updates/

 

[billbindc]

 

[dan/california]

26 minutes ago, NamEndedAllen said:

For those keeping track of the USA government long term commitment to supplying and supporting Ukraine in similar degree as the Biden Administration, the incoming Republican House members and their newly powerful positions as Committee chairpersons keep signaling what likely Speaker of the House promised: much tougher examinations and scrutiny of Ukraine and money for weapons. While this may not turn the spigot off, make no mistake that their loud parallels to Russian propaganda to undermine USA public support will shift public opinion. It will be tied to loud indictments about the USA economy, inflation and inevitably as announced already, Hunter Biden. We do not yet know how much this may slow or reduce support, but the 2024 election cycle is obviously in their sights.

House Republicans, who will hold a slim majority in the next Congress, have warned the Biden administration to expect far tougher oversight of the extensive military assistance provided to Ukraine in the war with Russia, The Washington Post reports.  

Ukraine live briefing: Republicans call for thttps://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/11/27/russia-ukraine-war-latest-updates/

 

They need to pass $75 billion in the lame duck session, If they were smart they would roll it in with a huge increase in the debt limit. It would eliminate the worst of the craziness for the next two years.

[Huba]

Monster thread about Sapsan/ Hrim-2, probably the most detailed description available online in english. 

 

[danfrodo]

50 minutes ago, NamEndedAllen said:

For those keeping track of the USA government long term commitment to supplying and supporting Ukraine in similar degree as the Biden Administration, the incoming Republican House members and their newly powerful positions as Committee chairpersons keep signaling what likely Speaker of the House promised: much tougher examinations and scrutiny of Ukraine and money for weapons. While this may not turn the spigot off, make no mistake that their loud parallels to Russian propaganda to undermine USA public support will shift public opinion. It will be tied to loud indictments about the USA economy, inflation and inevitably as announced already, Hunter Biden. We do not yet know how much this may slow or reduce support, but the 2024 election cycle is obviously in their sights.

House Republicans, who will hold a slim majority in the next Congress, have warned the Biden administration to expect far tougher oversight of the extensive military assistance provided to Ukraine in the war with Russia, The Washington Post reports.  

Ukraine live briefing: Republicans call for thttps://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/11/27/russia-ukraine-war-latest-updates/

 

Yeah, 'greater oversight' is simply a lie.  The same way when well-documented Putinist Rand Paul used 'oversight' to delay UKR aid for a short time early in the war.  Let's not mince words.  It's a lie.  Biden could s--t gold and apply it directly to the deficit and it would still be opposed.  Congress/Senate/Presidency were designed to encourage compromise, but this will be just obstruction the same way it was under Obama, especially if the psycho faction (MJ Greene, Gaetz, etc) are prominent.  

UKR aid is probably one of the very very few things that could pass.

[billbindc]

54 minutes ago, NamEndedAllen said:

For those keeping track of the USA government long term commitment to supplying and supporting Ukraine in similar degree as the Biden Administration, the incoming Republican House members and their newly powerful positions as Committee chairpersons keep signaling what likely Speaker of the House promised: much tougher examinations and scrutiny of Ukraine and money for weapons. While this may not turn the spigot off, make no mistake that their loud parallels to Russian propaganda to undermine USA public support will shift public opinion. It will be tied to loud indictments about the USA economy, inflation and inevitably as announced already, Hunter Biden. We do not yet know how much this may slow or reduce support, but the 2024 election cycle is obviously in their sights.

House Republicans, who will hold a slim majority in the next Congress, have warned the Biden administration to expect far tougher oversight of the extensive military assistance provided to Ukraine in the war with Russia, The Washington Post reports.  

Ukraine live briefing: Republicans call for thttps://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/11/27/russia-ukraine-war-latest-updates/

 

The game is going to be that any discrepancy is going to be used by House Republicans to hold up aid:  https://www.foxnews.com/politics/biden-admin-scrambles-track-20b-ukraine-aid-house-republicans-warn-audits

[kevinkin]

Earth to Russia, "Come on in, the water's fine."

https://apnews.com/article/taiwan-health-fires-social-media-50d7515e5fae00f5054062209e9306cc

https://www.cnn.com/2022/11/26/middleeast/iran-supreme-leader-praises-crackdown-intl/index.html

[JonS]

2 hours ago, danfrodo said:

Seems like a really good idea

Well, on the one hand, they are:

* available

* fairly easy to learn/train

* fairly simple to integrate into a fire control system, because there is a manual interface between CP and gun

* M1 105mm is plentiful and cheap

* 105mm provides a nice bridge over the last 100m of an assault for fireplanning

* the M101 is a very robust gun.

* the L5 is very easy to move (including /inside/ an M113 Gavin). Both guns will be fairly easy to tow anywhere, and for the L5 the tractor can be as small as a landrover. The L5 could, for example, be readily pushed forward into cross-river bridgeheads or over to the Kinburn peninsular.

On the other hand:

* These guns are OLD - the M101 was bought into service at the same time as the 25-pr. Mere age isn't strictly a problem, but barrel life is likely to be limited, spare parts hard to come by, and the L5s are likely to be very 'sloppy' and dubiously accurate and precise due to wear in all the various and many joints. It was optimised for mobility at the expense of durability, meaning sustained heavy fire is really not its thing. Bits falling off in the middle of a fire mission is not off the table.

* Bringing these guns into and out of action is a slow process. They probably do not have LINAPS or the like, and will therefore rely on olde-schule manual survey with a theodolite to establish location and orientation.

* their range isn't much further than a well thrown stone, opening these batterys up to CB. Their slowness into and out of action exacerbates this.

Any guns is better than no guns, but I'd be mildly surprised if any of these are still in action 6 months from now.

Edited November 27, 2022 by JonS

[danfrodo]

17 minutes ago, JonS said:

Well, on the one hand, they are:

* available

* fairly easy to learn/train

* fairly simple to integrate into a fire control system, because there is a manual interface between CP and gun

* M1 105mm is plentiful and cheap

* 105mm provides a nice bridge over the last 100m of an assault for fireplanning

* the M101 is a very robust gun.

* the L5 is very easy to move (including /inside/ an M113 Gavin). Both guns will be fairly easy to tow anywhere a landrover can go. The L5 could, for example, be readily pushed forward into cross-river bridgeheads or over to the Kinburn peninsular.

On the other hand:

* These guns are OLD - the M101 was bought into service at the same time as the 25-pr. Mere age isn't strictly a problem, but barrel life is likely to be limited, spare parts hard to come by, and the L5s are likely to be very 'sloppy' and dubiously accurate and precise due to wear in all the various and many joints. It was optimised for mobility at the expense of durability, meaning sustained heavy fire is really not its thing. Bits falling off in the middle of a fire mission is not off the table.

* Bringing these guns into and out of action is a slow process. They probably do not have LINAPS or the like, and will therefore rely on olde-schule manual survey with a theodolite to establish location and orientation.

* their range isn't much further than a well thrown stone, opening these batterys up to CB. Their slowness into and out of action exacerbates this.

Any guns is better than no guns, but I'd be mildly surprised if any of these are still in action 6 months from now.

Thanks for this great post.  Well, hopefully these will do more good than harm.  They sound pretty limited.

[JonS]

Just now, danfrodo said:

They sound pretty limited.

That said, now is probably a good time to be transferring them. The russian artillery arm seems to have been heavily degraded in all aspects, so CB may not actually be much of a threat anymore. If that is true, then their usefulness goes way up.

[NamEndedAllen]

1 hour ago, billbindc said:

The game is going to be that any discrepancy is going to be used by House Republicans to hold up aid:  https://www.foxnews.com/politics/biden-admin-scrambles-track-20b-ukraine-aid-house-republicans-warn-audits

Unfortunately that is highly probably, almost a given. What is desperately needed is a change in focus from “only what will help me and my Party - screw the rest”, to what is going to help my country, and my Allies especially in the struggle against the worst human impulses against one another”, and ultimately, facts and reason over fantasy and ego/selfishness. Putin is a master in stoking the latter impulses in the West. It remains one of his only strategic weapons that can and is being used.

In a war that has become a grind of two battered fighters striving to stay in the ring and standing up, time is increasingly critical. Neither has an unlimited amount of it.

[Kinophile]

 

Good ol Hertling gives a look over

[The_Capt]

10 hours ago, Kinophile said:

 

Good ol Hertling gives a look over

He is still seeing this war through a western lens.  He makes a lot of very good points, however, appears stuck on “winning through manoeuvre”, which we have seen little of in the prosecution of this war.  A deliberate assault - frankly, I disagree with him here, as the RA proved back this spring the opposed water xing is probably harder - to break through and then exploit is employing western biased metrics.

Corrosive warfare does not do this, or at least it is not on the critical path.  As we saw in quick time at Kharkiv and slower time at Kherson, the aim is to employ precision strike to erode an opponent to the point their operational system fails. This has happened three times to the RA - northern advances in Ph I, Kharkiv and Kherson.  This was all done by merciless corrosion until the RA failed and was forced to withdraw, while taking casualties on high value systems they cannot replace.

South and east of Kherson will be the same story.  If the UA can continue to erode RA logistics, ISR and longe range fires - with the added pressure of the weather, the RA system will likely buckle again.  They can dig all the trenches they want, once the ammo, food and ability to rotate troops all cease it is simply a matter of time.  Why the UA would want to risk valuable assets and people on reckless direct assaults the make no sense?  Infiltrate-Isolate-Eliminate-Repeat : Fog eating snow but now with winter on their side it is “fog eating Russian soldier-popsicles”.

Fundamentally the good general is describing the employment of fast-mass to beat defensive mass which is exactly what our dogma…er, “doctrine” says. The UA has been employing anti-mass far more effectively on both defence and offence - which links back to that Finnish approach post.  It would appear that it is anti-mass’s time to shine

Edited November 28, 2022 by The_Capt

[Kinophile]

58 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

He is still seeing this war through a western lens.  He makes a lot of very good points, however, appears stuck on “winning through manoeuvre”, which we have seen little of in the prosecution of this war.  A deliberate assault - frankly, I disagree with him here, as the RA proved back this spring the opposed water xing is probably harder - to break through and then exploit is employing western biased metrics.

Corrosive warfare does not do this, or at least it is not on the critical path.  As we saw in quick time at Kharkiv and slower time at Kherson, the aim is to employ precision strike to erode an opponent to the point their operational system fails. This has happened three times to the RA - northern advances in Ph I, Kharkiv and Kherson.  This was all done by merciless corrosion until the RA failed and was forced to withdraw, while taking casualties on high value systems they cannot replace.

South and east of Kherson will be the same story.  If the UA can continue to erode RA logistics, ISR and longe range fires - with the added pressure of the weather, the RA system will likely buckle again.  They can dig all the trenches they want, once the ammo, food and ability to rotate troops all cease it is simply a matter of time.  Why the UA would want to risk valuable assets and people on reckless direct assaults make no sense.  Infiltrate-Isolate-Eliminate-Repeat : Fog eating snow but now with winter on their side it is “fog eating Russian soldier-popsicles”.

Fundamentally the good general is describing the employment of fast-mass to beat defensive mass which is exactly what our dogma…er, “doctrine” says. The UA has been employing anti-mass far more effectively on both defence and offence - which links back to that Finnish approach post.  It would appear that it is anti-mass’s time to shine

You should comment and chat through twitter or personally with him. Your take is interesting and validated with RL battlefield events, while he is more repeating How It's Done^TM  as per every US FM (and his own lived and valid professional experience). Not to denigrate him but the lack of note about current UKR operational approaches vis a vis preventing an approaching deadlock/stalling is worth discussing. He seems like a reasonable and approachable fellow.

That is, unless US/CAN mil interactions are sorta like-

 

Edited November 28, 2022 by Kinophile

[billbindc]

12 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

You should comment and chat through twitter or personally with him. Your take is interesting and validated with RL battlefield events, while he is more repeating How It's Done^TM  as per every US FM (and his own lived and valid professional experience). Not to denigrate him but the lack of note about current UKR operational approaches vis a vis preventing an approaching deadlock/stalling is worth discussing. He seems like a reasonable and approachable fellow.

That is, unless US/CAN mil interactions are sorta like-

 

Hertling is a legit nice guy. If you reach out to him Capt I’d bet there’d be a fruitful conversation. 

Also…looks like Ukraine may have decided to break Wagner in Bakhmut: 

 

[Kinophile]

19 minutes ago, billbindc said:

Also…looks like Ukraine may have decided to break Wagner in Bakhmut: 

 

This has been on my mind also. If UKR can squanch Wagner (who in no bloody way are all they crack themselves up to be) then RUS has a real crisis on their hands, and not just military. The political side goes off the wall. 

• How will Prig "The Prig" react militarily to his up-gunned Dillinger Gang getting slobbered by HIMARS every night?
• What will he demand in the political sphere?
• How will RUS MOD react if Wagner begins to collapse, eating up resources and units? 
• Does RUS even have the capacity to take over the Wagner front, if need be?
• What kind of morale hit would the RUS military suffer if Wagner is visibly defeated? What about the home front? 

All that said, 2nd-string TDs plus stiffening SOFs doesn't seem to presage an offensive. 

Edited November 28, 2022 by Kinophile

[billbindc]

13 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

This has been on my mind also. If UKR can squanch Wagner (who in no bloody way are all they crack themselves up to be) then RUS has a real crisis on their hands, and not just military. The political side goes off the wall. 

• How will Prig "The Prig" react militarily to his up-gunned Dillinger Gang getting slobbered by HIMARS every night?
• What will he demand in the political sphere?
• How will RUS MOD react if Wagner begins to collapse, eating up resources and units? 
• Does RUS even have the capacity to take over the Wagner front, if need be?
• What kind of morale hit would the RUS military suffer if Wagner is visibly defeated? What about the home front? 

All that said, 2nd-string TDs plus stiffening SOFs doesn't seem to presage an offensive. 

Not an offensive...but a defense that will grind down Russian units faster than they can be replaced, to the degree that they cannot be rotated or such that they will be make reinforcing Kharkiv or Zaporizhzhia less likely. A corrosive defense you might say.