How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[The_Capt]

2 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Ukraine has opened investigation of the case of Makiivka shooting warcrime, but against Russian troopers as violators of article 37 (perfidy) of Geneva Convention. 

I agree with this fact, that Russians were surrendering not as separate persons, but as a unit, and process of surrendering wasn't finished because this Rambo opened fire. Russians weren't searched and moved to other place, so process of their turning to POWs wasn't finished too. On the video you can see a moment, when laying Russian raises own head and sees on their last guy, who prepared for shooting, but didn't warn UKR soldiers (and who knows, maybe he had a grenade a could throw it). Also on the video, filmed from UAV you can see bodies, laying separately from this group, likely they tried to attack UKR soldiers to disarm them and were killed.

Maybe we can talk about "juridical grey zone", but according to Art.37 and situation 4 vs. 11 (and 2-3 vs.11 after shooting start) didn't leave the choice to shot out all. 

Article 37 does prohibit perfidy or the unlawful use of the protections of the LOAC; however, it does not give license for further violations or mean the rest of LOAC does not apply.  https://ihl-databases.icrc.org/applic/ihl/ihl.nsf/ART/470-750046?OpenDocument

The Russian soldier(s) who are proven to have participated in an act of perfidy are prosecutable under the LOAC.  If the whole unit and its chain of command were involved then they too can be prosecuted.

However none of this gives licence to legally gun down every man in the RA squad, especially unarmed men lying face down on the ground.  For that, they would need to prove that the entire squad was about to get up and re-engage in combat - so intent and capability, which allowed for lawful engagement or self-defence.

As to the legal defence of “well they are doing it!”  Welcome to the western world. Having spent time in combat with people who were absolutely medieval I can sympathize but this is the deal - we follow the rules even when the other team is not. Why? Western Rules Based Order…key word is “rules”, and we all have to follow them or risk breaking the deal.

You want to support the Russians just keep promoting a reciprocal Russian-way of war for the Ukrainians.  You want to beat the Russians in the strategic narrative?  Keep to the high ground and remain recognizable to your western supporters.  Fair?  Nope.  Reality? Yup.

Edited November 22, 2022 by The_Capt

[Zeleban]

It should be emphasized right away that, most likely, the enemy will attack in two directions, both in the direction of Torskoye - Zarechnoye, and in the direction of Nevskoye and Makeevka ...

It is not for nothing that the enemy command attracts at least 4 BTGRs in the future offensive and accumulates an appropriate reserve to bring it into battle at the next stage of the development of its offensive.

- 59th TR, 254th and 488th MRR of the 144th Motor Rifle Division of the 20th CAA (in general - up to 2 BTGr, but incomplete)

- 33rd and 55th Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 41st CAA (up to 1 "consolidated" BTG - hodgepodge, actively understaffed with "chmobiks")

- 3rd and 24th separate brigades of the Special Forces (up to 1 "consolidated" detachment in the amount of 1.5 "battalions")

- and the reserve "component" - the advanced "Reduced" BTGr 76th infantry division, which already moved from the Kherson direction to Svatovsky during November 19-20 ...

In all likelihood, this strike force will be reinforced by at least 1 BTGr from the 106th Airborne Division, which, according to certain information, has already begun to advance from the Luhansk region to the north.

It is obvious that the command of the enemy troops is determined to “radically” solve the problematic issue for itself in the northern part of the Lugansk region by organizing and conducting a fairly large-scale offensive of its troops in the general direction of Liman and Borovaya ... and, if circumstances are successful, “return” to the river. Oskol.

For at least the entire previous week, it was quite actively pulling up quite a lot of “iron” to this direction, in particular, only on November 19-21 it moved the following forces and means to this area:

-from the Lugansk-Schastie region to the north towards Novoaydar, Severodonetsk proceeded - more than 90 units. weapons and military equipment (including at least 16 tanks);

-through Belokurakino towards Svatovo - more than 40 units. weapons and military equipment (12 armored personnel carriers, 8 tanks, 5 Tigr armored combat vehicles, 17 military vehicles, including trucks and special ones);

-through Starobelsk in the direction of Krasnorechenskoye - 15 units. military equipment (five infantry fighting vehicles, tanks each);

-two “fresh” tank companies (19 tanks) passed through Upper Pokrovka in the direction of Novaya Astrakhan, probably from the 59th TR of the 144th Motor Rifle Division of the 20th CAA of the Western Military District.

Also, it is worth taking into account that in the same directions the enemy concentrated at least 5-6 artillery divisions from the 288th ABR, 99th and 147th Guards. self-propelled artillery regiments (from each division).

 

Agree, a fairly significant replenishment of the advanced units of the 18th and 144th motorized rifle divisions, actively operating in the Svatovo region and north of Kreminnaya, with the main types of weapons and military equipment, with the simultaneous transfer of units of at least 2 airborne divisions to the same area, clearly cannot random.

Most likely, in the coming days or in a few days the enemy will clearly try to “turn around” the situation in the Svatovsky direction and in the Kremennaya area by means of a massive offensive.

 

[Zeleban]

To summarize...

Definitely, the liquidation of the Kherson-Berislav bridgehead of the enemy on the right bank of the Dnieper had not only positive consequences for the Armed Forces of Ukraine and Ukraine, but also quite negative ones for them. For example, expanding the capabilities of the enemy command to strengthen their groupings of troops in other directions and sectors, but also, accordingly, acquiring the ability for them to organize and conduct a larger and wider range of active operations.

Under the conditions of strategic defense, to which the enemy has switched, this ability of his does not at all look superfluous for him. Therefore, it is clearly not worth considering that tomorrow, or at least the day after tomorrow, he will again begin to retreat with regular gestures of goodwill ...

 

In terms of the situation at the front, the coming weeks may bring many surprises. Moreover, both positive and quite negative for Ukraine, character ...

[Zeleban]

13 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

However none of this gives licence to legally gun down every man in the RA squad, especially unarmed men lying face down on the ground.

This is easy to do if it is confirmed that some of the Russians tried to leave the place of surrender after the shooting began.

[Haiduk]

2 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

especially unarmed men

No evidences that they were 100 % unarmed (grenadeds, pistols etc), because procedure of unit surrendering wasn't finished and UKR soldiers didn't have time to search them. Combat episode wasn't finished. 

6 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

 For that, they would need to prove that the entire squad was about to get up and re-engage in combat - so intent and capability, which allowed for lawful engagement or self-defence.

To prove during suddenly started engagement? To whom? They had to call a lawyer under fire?

9 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Western Rules Based Order…key word is “rules”, and we all have to follow them or risk breaking the deal.

Western rules based order often turns out into swamp of bureaucracy, red tape of 100500 of committees and useless talking shop.   

[Zeleban]

19 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Article 37 does prohibit perfidy or the use of the protections of the LOAC; however, it does not give license for further violations or mean the rest of LOAC does not apply.  https://ihl-databases.icrc.org/applic/ihl/ihl.nsf/ART/470-750046?OpenDocument

The Russian soldier(s) who are proven to have participated in an act of perfidy are prosecutable under the LOAC.  If the whole unit and its chain of command were involved then they too can be prosecuted.

However none of this gives licence to legally gun down every man in the RA squad, especially unarmed men lying face down on the ground.  For that, they would need to prove that the entire squad was about to get up and re-engage in combat - so intent and capability, which allowed for lawful engagement or self-defence.

As to the legal defence of “well they are doing it!”  Welcome to the western world. Having spent time in combat with people who were absolutely medieval I can sympathize but this is the deal - we follow the rules even when the other team is not. Why? Western Rules Based Order…key word is “rules”, and we all have to follow them or risk breaking the deal.

You want to support the Russians just keep promoting a reciprocal Russian-way of war for the Ukrainians.  You want to beat the Russians in the strategic narrative?  Keep to the high ground and remain recognizable to your western supporters.  Fair?  Nope.  Reality? Yup.

 

By the way, how do you regard the concept of affect? And does it apply to Ukrainian servicemen? Could they have acted in a state of passion caused by a sudden attack on them?

[Huba]

1 hour ago, Huba said:

Guy in the tweet cites (though without a link to the quote) Ismail Demir, president of Turkish Defence Industry Agency, who reportedly said that. I tried a little search but didn't find any confirmation online for this. Still decided to post it as it was retweeted by DefMon, who is rather scrupulous with stuff like that.

Edit: here's a sketchy translated video where he's making the claim. I'm not convinced TBH, we'd probably need somebody speaking the language to confirm.

 

So a follow-up on this is that a 150km missile for this system indeed exists (according to a rather random Turkish guy from my infobubble). Let's see if any of these will pop up in Ukraine, as of now there isn't much evidence to suggest that Turkey sent this particular variant.

[kevinkin]

Breaking this afternoon:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/ukraine-launches-assault-to-oust-russia-from-key-black-sea-peninsula-11669114391

Bit more:

https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-russia-crimea-drones/32144154.html

[The_Capt]

11 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

No evidences that they were 100 % unarmed (grenadeds, pistols etc), because procedure of unit surrendering wasn't finished and UKR soldiers didn't have time to search them. Combat episode wasn't finished.

And this should be taken into account as it may suggest they had capability but that is not enough, one has to demonstrate clear intent.   Combat episode was finished as soon as the RA soldiers came out with hands up, the question is who and if they were employing perfidy to cause further harm or re-start combat.

14 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

To prove during suddenly started engagement? To whom? They had to call a lawyer under fire?

Nope, that is why professional militaries have Rules of Engagement, the review of which will be a major part of a follow on investigation.

15 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Western rules based order often turns out into swamp of bureaucracy, red tape of 100500 of committees and useless talking shop

And is currently bank rolling this entire thing so you remain a free nation - now if you would like to explore other options your nation is free to do so.  This is the club you are joining.  If that doesn’t wash you could try knocking on China’s door.

[Haiduk]

Dead Russian prisoners of Wagner on Bakmut front

UKR soldier writes:

The day of almost continuous fightings. Russians driven here more and more people. Captured "zeks" (prisoners) say about 2000 for our section of front. You begins to believe so far. This start to remind WWII. All land aroud covered with this motherf...rs. The group of 10 persons come, get fu...d, 4 retreat. New group, again get fu...d, again rollback. And whole day we spend in such format. Sometime they crawl corpses of their dead comrades and start to dig in almost under them to survive. It's happens, they lay prone near bodies and lay by hours.

Other soldier:

We are going to battle for Bakhmut. Now already this come almost to "bayonet attacks". Wagnerites driven forward "zeks"  - they dig in one-by-one like Japanese. Our infanty told they as if from nowhere burts to our trenches. Fu...k, where is my katana?

 

Edited November 22, 2022 by Haiduk

[Zeleban]

6 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Combat episode was finished as soon as the RA soldiers came out with hands up, the question is who and if they were employing perfidy to cause further harm or re-start combat.

Nonsense, you know perfectly well that the combat episode did not end there, because the shooting at the Ukrainian military continued

[The_Capt]

1 hour ago, Zeleban said:

 

By the way, how do you regard the concept of affect? And does it apply to Ukrainian servicemen? Could they have acted in a state of passion caused by a sudden attack on them?

The mental and emotional state of all parties would absolutely need to be taken into account within an investigation.  For example, were the RA troops convinced they were about to be lined up and shot so Mr Grenade-y acted out of desperation?  Were the UA service members extremely stressed by previous combat and as such had their judgement effected?  

The mental state of the actors in this would likely become central.

Edited November 22, 2022 by The_Capt

[danfrodo]

Summary today from DailyKos.  Basically mud and missiles.  Something hit an RU logistical hub 150km from the front in Crimea.  Maybe the turkish missiles that were just announced have been secretly sent a while ago, with today just being the first usage so it was officially announced?

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/11/22/2137882/-Ukraine-update-Mud-mud-and-more-mud-and-Ukraine-gets-a-new-long-range-weapon

 

[The_Capt]

44 minutes ago, Zeleban said:

Nonsense, you know perfectly well that the combat episode did not end there, because the shooting at the Ukrainian military continued

Are we talking the grenade tossing episode or combat coming from outside the incident?

“The LOAC states that as soon as those RA troops came “into the hands” or “under the power” of then UA troops the combat between these two parties was over because the RA troops were legally POWs.  Once the grenade was tossed the central question to be answered is whether that lone soldier was re engaging in combat in an act of perfidy? And/or was the rest of that RA soldiers unit also re engaging or had the intent to re-engage.

If the UA unit were to come under fire from a third RA unit, they actually have the obligation to protect and extract the RA POWs. And nothing in LOAC says they can mow them down because a third party is shooting at them.

Look, I get it.  Ukrainian members on the forum really want to promote that the UA kept its hands clean. However, unrighteous shoots happen in warfare all the time - this the a harsh reality of combat.  How a nation is judged is by how it responds to and ensures that any party who engages in these actions is prosecuted under a military legal system.  Here they are afforded full legal protections under domestic law and a fair trial that will take into account all factors.  

Now if the UA is smart - and frankly I really think they very much are, far smarter than a few posters on this board - they will conduct an investigation etc with transparency etc, and the news cycle will move on with the footnote “Ukrainian authorities are investigating the incident in full and will share the results with its western partners”.  These sorts of investigations can take freakin months or years so we will be on to a new crisis before long while whatever this is fades to the background.

Or you can make a ton of counter-productive noise, bite the hand that is trying very hard - against some it it’s own electorates - to keep you from becoming a Russian province and provide a steady stream of sound bites for the pro-Russian crowd who are circling.

Edited November 22, 2022 by The_Capt

[Zeleban]

22 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

“The LOAC states that as soon as those RA troops came “into the hands” or “under the power” of then UA troops the combat between these two parties was over because the RA troops were legally POWs.

Russian servicemen did not come “into the hands” Ukrainian soldiers. This is evidenced by the subsequent shooting

[Zeleban]

24 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Are we talking the grenade tossing episode or combat coming from outside the incident?

What difference does it make what episode it is? The Ukrainian military did not capture the Russian servicemen, and the Russian servicemen did not surrender to the fighters of Ukraine. Therefore, everything happened within the framework of the same incident. 

We are not trying to justify the Ukrainian military, we want to prevent the spread of disinformation by the Russian media, which was picked up by some Western media

[Gpig]

Based solely on what is available visually, it is clear that a group of Russians 'surrendered' and were following the directions of the UA troops.

One of the Russians did not surrender, and instead came out shooting.

Next images we see is a all of the Russians dead (shooter and surrendered).

I would argue there is no disinformation in those images. But it isn't at all clear what happened during those moments NOT captured on film. And it is into those gaps where the disinformation will flow.

I think it's clear that the UA did capture those Russians, but were interrupted.

One of the worst things about war is that it drags everyone down with it.

[LongLeftFlank]

1 hour ago, The_Capt said:

Now if the UA is smart - and frankly I really think they very much are, far smarter than a few posters on this board - they will conduct an investigation etc with transparency etc, and the news cycle will move on with the footnote....

 

Agree.

But if the UA is smart, it will crack down hard on the unauthorised sharing and uploading of videos by its troops. This is a military discipline issue.

Sorry, GenZ, deal with it for the duration.

This kind of incident is simply not going to stop happening in war, no matter how well you train your troops. You dehumanise the guys who are trying to kill you and that doesn't flick on and off like a switch. I see it as the equivalent of an unlucky mortar round dropping on the guys involved. Hard luck.

There will always be Monday morning quarterbacks (not including anyone here in that) feeding on the visual 'evidence'. There's no way to win that game, so just don't play.

...If a drone operator comes across a group of prisoners being gunned down in the woods, well that's a whistleblowing situation and rather different.  A well run military will  investigate that, even if it chooses not to try it in the court of public opinion in the moment.

Edited November 23, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[The_Capt]

38 minutes ago, Zeleban said:

What difference does it make what episode it is? The Ukrainian military did not capture the Russian servicemen, and the Russian servicemen did not surrender to the fighters of Ukraine. Therefore, everything happened within the framework of the same incident. 

We are not trying to justify the Ukrainian military, we want to prevent the spread of disinformation by the Russian media, which was picked up by some Western media

Ok well the I am not even sure we are talking about the same incident then.  I am talking about the one blowing up all over mainstream media: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/20/world/europe/russian-soldiers-shot-ukraine.html

Specifically:

“The next scene is a cellphone video filmed in the courtyard by the same Ukrainian soldier. There are gaps in the video, though it’s unclear why. It shows the four Ukrainian soldiers, at least three of whom are armed.

One soldier, with his rifle drawn, tentatively approaches the structure where the Russian soldiers are sheltering. The soldier with the machine gun provides cover. Several gunshots are heard — though it’s not clear from where — and the soldier slowly backs away from an outhouse, drawing out the Russian soldiers at gunpoint.

The video cuts off, and when it restarts, six Russian soldiers are lying facedown on the ground beside one another. At least two of them are alive and can be seen moving in the video; the others are motionless. The video shows four other soldiers slowly exiting the outhouse, one after the other, some with their arms raised. They join the other soldiers on the ground…

…Two of the Ukrainians standing by appear to be relaxed and are pointing their rifles toward the ground. The capture of these soldiers is initially orderly and without incident — but suddenly everything changes.

As an 11th Russian soldier emerges from the outhouse, he opens fire, aiming at one of the Ukrainian soldiers. The Ukrainians are taken by surprise. The cellphone camera jolts away as the Ukrainian soldier filming the scene flinches. A frame-by-frame analysis of what happens next shows the Ukrainian soldier standing beside him raise his rifle and aim toward the Russian gunman.”

Now all this based on a heavily edited video but that seems to indicate to me that the RA troops had surrendered or were in the process of surrendering - not sure how this is supposed to be translated as “knowing full well combat was not over.”  Further them laying in a neat row with no visible weapons kind of also suggests this. If those RA soldiers came out of that house with guns up and blazing then fair game but the reports of the video do not appear support that. They do seem to support a POW capture gone wrong and possible perfidy by RA troops.  

Regardless the facts of the case are not clear as far as I can tell and an investigation is likely merited and it would appear a whole lot of people agree.

[dan/california]

1 minute ago, The_Capt said:

Regardless the facts of the case are not clear as far as I can tell and an investigation is likely merited and it would appear a whole lot of people agree.

This is the important part, we have given this unpleasantly dead horse more than enough beating, until and unless we get more information. And LLF is right Ukraine needs better control over the endless video feed. Goal is to win the war...

[Huba]

If you skip the context, it's really hard not to feel bad for these guys:

 

Edited November 23, 2022 by Huba

[The_Capt]

1 minute ago, dan/california said:

This is the important part, we have given this unpleasantly dead horse more than enough beating, until and unless we get more information. And LLF is right Ukraine needs better control over the endless video feed. Goal is to win the war...

Absolutely agree with this.  In fact this entire incident aside my main aim was to clear up misinformation and mythology around the LOAC.  We have already had the “RA troops in civies can be shot by the roadside” misinformation. We do not need a “all POWs are fair game for treatment from an MG because one nitwit decided to go down blazing…see Geneva Conventions says so because, perfidy”. And we really do not need the open promotion of retaliatory war crimes as some sort of weird “levelling the playing field”, thanks to BFCElvis for weighing in on that one.

If this thread has any hope of remaining objective and level-headed we need to all keep a bead on this kind of stuff, even when - especially when -things get emotional and hard to take.  

 

[Butschi]

2 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Western rules based order often turns out into swamp of bureaucracy, red tape of 100500 of committees and useless talking shop.   

Do you (Ukrainians here on this forum) realize how this whole affair is beginning to aquire a bitter taste for some of us westerners? I really don't get it, this is the same mess as with the missile hitting that Polish village. It would have cost Ukraine nothing to say "We are not aware we did anything wrong but of course we'll look into it. We feel deeply sorry for your loss, but alas these things happen in war." On the contrary, that would have gained much sympathy. Same with this killing of POWs. Bad things happen under stress, we are all aware of that. And I for one acknowledge that I have no clue wether I would behave any better in such a situation.

But. Instead of saying it must have been a Russian missile and it was the Russians who committed a war crime here merely sounds like what we would expect from Russia, not Ukraine.

Sorry to say this but it doesn't really matter at all that the western way to do things is by no means perfect. It doesnt matter because whether you like it or not, biting the hand that feeds you will only gain you not being fed any more. And it will cause those in the club you intend to join to have second thoughts. Noone in the EU needs another Hungary (another Orban and supporters I should say because I know quite a few decent Hungarians) that takes our money otherwise hates Europe.

And remember, all of us here are rooting for Ukraine, so when we criticize this kind of behavior it is out of concern for Ukraine.

[Fenris]

Das ist Krieg

Still, as far as PR and moving toward the EU/NATO goes, UKR would do well to avoid automatic deflections and denials, at least officially.  Admitting there's a possibility of something having gone wrong and committing to investigate it is kind of expected in the west when stuff like this comes to light.  It might be uncomfortable and the results unwelcome but it's the price paid for support from the public.

Edited November 23, 2022 by Fenris
grammar

[Kinophile]

3 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Combat episode was finished as soon as the RA soldiers came out with hands up, 

It clearly wasn't. 

It was in the final stage,  sure,  possibly. But until those POWs were secured nothing was finished.  That's why the UKR troops were pointing weapons at them- because risk still existed and with that stupid nutjob, QED. 

Until your enemy is tied up,  sitting down and possibly also blindfolded they are still a potential threat.  History is replete with surrendering soldiers turning on their captors at the last second. Surrendering is dicey for both sides.

Plus,  fighting an enemy as cruel,  ruthless and rules-adverse as the Russian army means UKR absolutely no cannot trust them an inch. 

If you mean the active combat stage had finished and surrender stage was occurring,  that is too vague a transition to apply here. The situation was not fully resolved, there were still armed Russian soldiers,  at least one that we see, so no,  it doesn't appear that the combat stage had completed. 

 

Edited November 23, 2022 by Kinophile