How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Beleg85]

52 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Zelenskiy wants UKR militaries to take part in investigations. In Ukriane now very big suspicion, that there was also Russian missile, being chased by Ukrainian, but because finding remains of Russian missile would be put NATO in front of inconvenient developments (art.4 at lest = "escalation"), that USA hasted to make a statement only about UKR missile to hush up the question, hinting also to Poland they should make a statement also about UKR missile.

I think this can be true - I don't believe in accident launch. Russian missile have to be somewhere on UKR on on Poland territory.

The same theory is gaining ground here as well. Lack of visible second crash site speaks against it, as well as pure risk connected to covering-up an issue on such scale. If failed, NATO had much credibility to loose and little in fact to gain. In case of undeliberate Russian missile debris there is no obligation in invoking Art.4 nor 5. In fact it could be good levarage to give Ukraine extra weapons; it was expected such things will happen.

On the other side, Ukrainian gov. stubborn insistance it was not theirs raise doubts, just as preliminary early warnings of 2 "Russian missiles" that were given to certain officials (one Polish MP from Defence Comitee confirmed yesterday they were initially fed info about 2 rockets hitting the ground, one falling in nearby forest). But the heaviest argument for it is amount of radar coverage from both sides- radar station 40kms apart, AWACS, Rzeszów Patriots + Ukrainian batteries have their own systems tracking such things. It shouldn't take more than several hours to compare them and cut doubts.

Of course, these are protected military records, so mistrust or lack of political will on both sides could play their part.

Edited November 18, 2022 by Beleg85

[Tux]

38 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Zelenskiy wants UKR militaries to take part in investigations. In Ukriane now very big suspicion, that there was also Russian missile, being chased by Ukrainian, but because finding remains of Russian missile would be put NATO in front of inconvenient developments (art.4 at lest = "escalation"), that USA hasted to make a statement only about UKR missile to hush up the question, hinting also to Poland they should make a statement also about UKR missile.

I think this can be true - I don't believe in accident launch. Russian missile have to be somewhere on UKR on on Poland territory. 

By the way, yesterday Russians repeated this trick - they launched several Kalibrs from Black Sea, which passed through Odesa oblast very close along Moldova border and hit something in Khmelnitskiy oblast.

I can’t see why Ukraine would be excluded from the investigation but, in the meantime, is there any evidence to base that “very big suspicion” on?  Sounds like unhelpful speculation to me.  And I’m not buying NATO being that desperate to avoid an Article 4: nothing is going to force NATO to escalate any further than they want to or feel is appropriate anyway…

It’s at times like this that I’m reminded that it’s always ok to say “I don’t know”, especially when the alternative is baseless and potentially harmful speculation (in either direction).  We don’t know, yet, what the missile was. Waiting for the investigation to conclude is what we need to do.

[Elmar Bijlsma]

3 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Cripes, that last one is made out of "plastic stretch wrap".  It's what is used to wrap pallets so the contents don't fall off during shipping.  The ONLY thing it can do for these guys is reduce the effects of wind and keep out snow.  But in typical Russian half arsed fashion, it's only covering a portion of the side so it's not going to do either.

Steve

Yeah. That half arsed, bare minimum approach is very notable.

Meanwhile, I cannot count how many times I've seen footage of Ukrainian dug-outs that are neat and tidy, have a stove, oven and, occasionally, a sauna. And all of it looking rather nice, as if straight out of a home improvement advertisement.

One of these sides will get through winter better then the other.

9 minutes ago, kraze said:

Because there's a huge opposition among certain NATO countries to "escalating", which we can also clearly see in a very neutral verdict by the court in Hague, which doesn't even remotely try to put the blame on Russia, but just 3 guys instead who may or may not have acted all alone using Buk they may or may not have had in their garage. You know, random russian soldier has one rusting next to the bear cage.

After 8 years.

Uhm... courts are supposed to act neutral. It's kinda the point of them existing.

And they were not at all so shy at pointing the finger as you claim. They were very clear about exactly where the BUK came from, who did the logistics and in fact went out of their way to point that the DPR was under Russian control.

Not really sure what more you want from a criminal trial, but I like the thorough and dignified way they went about things.

[Beleg85]

3 hours ago, kraze said:

Because it suddenly went from 2 missiles striking Poland to one and 100% malfunctioned Ukrainian S300 missile before the investigation is even remotely over.

Very selective reading. I met nobody claiming it was 100% Ukrainian, even now they say investigation is ongoing and that it is just most probable outcome. "Two missile" theory indeed raise concern, but can fail under sructiny: no official with direct knowledge of the events was talking about 2 missiles as far as I know; in fact there was no "official" preliminary version till well after midnight, just rumours like the ones given to beforementioned MP. It seems like they had no idea what fall there for long hours, so news about 2 missiles could be echo chamber and gossips taken from panicked witness or rationalized cause that was pushed upward; in our era it takes literally 20 mins to create massive storm based on rumours only.

If it was indeed Russian missile shot down, everybody around would know about it, as it would probably leave large debris field around the village or crater size of two-story house in case it expolded. All Kalibr-types are large beasts with massive warhead, not something one can easily hide. Place is pretty well photographed now, and the only place of main fallout we know so far seems this hole under tractor, where clearly were remnants of S-300. Meanwhile even windows and roofs of a building 10-20 m apart are intact.

Unless somebody send Men in Black that within 1,5h completelly cleared evidence of impact of other big misile  and used neuralyzer on all witness (remember, it's not Russia: witness do not fall from windows nor are bound to remain silent, while in such small community info is close to impossible to hide) I find it hard to believe they would be able to cover it. Plus we know from pictures that regular firefighters, policemen and medics were securing place of the incident from beggining well into the night, not some SpecOps.

On other side, if Russian missile fall/was shot down within Ukraine borders close to PL (perhaps Ukrainian members have some info about it?) it would be entirely possible one AA rocket could go dumb. Would be nothing strange in this in fact.

All of it is very mysterious, but perhaps sometimes cigar is just a cigar. We can be sure more than one book will be written about the incident in the future, though.

3 hours ago, Tux said:

I can’t see why Ukraine would be excluded from the investigation but, in the meantime, is there any evidence to base that “very big suspicion” on

This also raised suspicions in Poland, but can be explained on legal basis. Danilov demanded (in quite boorish words, to put mildly, considering the circumstances...) immediate access and right to conduct his own investigation. As I understand it, both states lacks even legal acts for conducting separate independent full investigations on each other territory, as it is literally undermining one's trust into sovereignity (which btw was one of reasons why exhumations of Wolhynia massacres were so difficult to conduct on UA soil for so many years). After several hours somebody in PL (or more likely US) side finally figured out it looks pretty bad to block them given gravity of the crisis, so Ukrainian investigation teams were given access to crash site and status of auxiliary investigation with wide insight into collected evidence. I frankly don't know if they have rights to interrogating witness, as couldn't find any info; they could be theoretically given such right on informal courteus basis,as it sometimes happen in such cases. They spend there at least several hours today.

Edited November 19, 2022 by Beleg85

[Letter from Prague]

2 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

If story happens to be true however, Russian BS Fleet is in deeper trouble than previously thought.

I'm guessing you mean Black Sea, but "Russian BS Fleet" can be understood in another way, that is also rather correct  

[Battlefront.com]

2 hours ago, Huba said:

Obvious next steps in the evolution of these drones is ability to lay sea mines and to launch kamikaze UAVs. 

Combining drones of different capabilities is something that I am sure a lot of money is getting poured into right now.

For those of you old enough to remember it... the game Carrier Command foresaw this way back in 1988.  Damned awesome game:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carrier_Command

Steve

[Billy Ringo]

As long as we are throwing out possible scenarios, here's another that actually makes the most sense to me:  I think that at this point those at the upper tier of US/NATO/Polish and Ukrainian military/government know exactly where the missile/s came from and who sent them. There are WAY too many eyes and overlapping surveillance on this theater right now for anything to be missed of this magnitude.  They know---but for some yet-to-be-determined reason they've elected to play out the drama.  To let it sit.   Why---no idea.

But I don't think for one second they don't know exactly what's in that field and where it came from.  

 

[kevinkin]

War Zone reporting from an hour ago:

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraine-situation-report-possible-drone-boat-attack-on-russian-port

Additionally in the same report:

William A. LaPlante, the Pentagon’s chief weapon buyer, on Nov. 18 chaired the second meeting of the National Armaments Directors (NADs) from member nations of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group (UDCG) in Brussels. He was joined by NADs and representatives from 45 nations, the European Union, and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). Participants discussed accelerated sourcing, production, procurement, and sustainment of capabilities critical to Ukraine's defense against Russia's unlawful invasion, according to a statement from Department of Defense Spokesperson Lt. Cmdr. Tim Gorman.

Discussions among the military-industrial leaders focused on providing Ukraine with four capabilities:

ground-based, long-range fires
air defense systems
air-to-ground capabilities
sustainment support.

Looks like armored, light mechanized etc.. stuff is off the table for now. Maybe just upgrade captured Russian vehicles in situ. where it makes sense. 

[kevinkin]

8 hours ago, dan/california said:

Excellent ,if grim, article. Assuming the author is correct, and that is a largish assumption, there is nothing for it but to redouble support for Ukraine.

Everything we are seeing coming from the West stems from the first principle of their post WW2 grand strategy: prevention of nuclear war and today the use of WMDs in general.

I think the assumption is not that large. While not saying so exactly, the writer is concluding that those Russians with the most to gain by regime change can not overcome those that have the most to lose in the foreseeable future. The writer sees the elites as resilient in the face of a horrible war. They have no choice and are unwilling to yield their life styes to better Russia a generation from now. With WMDs and mounting Ukrainian casualties, it can't surprise too many that Milley is tapping the breaks. The West has its elites too. And even at a million to one, a nuke would upset their morning latte and investment positions. God forbid. The West can't figure out how to live without the region's grain and oil. Asking its populace to risk Armageddon is not going to fly. So Ukraine bleeds head to toe, while elites in Russia are largely OK. And those with most to gain in Russia are being hunted down and killed off at the front. They are too busy staying alive to revolt. I don't even think a successful version of Claus von Stauffenberg would matter right now. Is Putin the puppet or the puppeteer of the elites? If the West is not going to cross a self imposed red line and provide more lethal assistance, a strategy of long term conventional military pressure causing Russian society to slowly evaporate might be the only option. Both sides think time is on their side which makes for more death and destruction. The West can't budge and neither can Ukraine. 

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/case-against-negotiations-russia

From the article above:

The West should help Ukraine liberate the areas that are strategically vital to its security and economic well-being and then build up the Ukrainian military and economy to a point that deters future Russian invasions. Moscow will continue to pursue means short of invasion to undermine pro-Western Ukrainian governments and coerce Ukrainians to surrender their independence. Success for Ukraine and the West lies in turning this hot war into a cold war on terms that leave Ukraine strong enough to survive and ultimately win it. 

Been thinking along those lines for a while now. Win it without any long term term threat to day to day life in the US and the rest of western democracies. This can be achieved with the precious commodity  - time. Milley knows more than anyone outside Ukraine its manpower. Maybe that's why he seems hesitant. He know Russia is screwed but wants to leave Ukraine intact and a give it a start on rebuilding. 

 

[dan/california]

50 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

Everything we are seeing coming from the West stems from the first principle of their post WW2 grand strategy: prevention of nuclear war and today the use of WMDs in general.

I think the assumption is not that large. While not saying so exactly, the writer is concluding that those Russians with the most to gain by regime change can not overcome those that have the most to lose in the foreseeable future. The writer sees the elites as resilient in the face of a horrible war. They have no choice and are unwilling to yield their life styes to better Russia a generation from now. With WMDs and mounting Ukrainian casualties, it can't surprise too many that Milley is tapping the breaks. The West has its elites too. And even at a million to one, a nuke would upset their morning latte and investment positions. God forbid. The West can't figure out how to live without the region's grain and oil. Asking its populace to risk Armageddon is not going to fly. So Ukraine bleeds head to toe, while elites in Russia are largely OK. And those with most to gain in Russia are being hunted down and killed off at the front. They are too busy staying alive to revolt. I don't even think a successful version of Claus von Stauffenberg would matter right now. Is Putin the puppet or the puppeteer of the elites? If the West is not going to cross a self imposed red line and provide more lethal assistance, a strategy of long term conventional military pressure causing Russian society to slowly evaporate might be the only option. Both sides think time is on their side which makes for more death and destruction. The West can't budge and neither can Ukraine. 

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/case-against-negotiations-russia

From the article above:

The West should help Ukraine liberate the areas that are strategically vital to its security and economic well-being and then build up the Ukrainian military and economy to a point that deters future Russian invasions. Moscow will continue to pursue means short of invasion to undermine pro-Western Ukrainian governments and coerce Ukrainians to surrender their independence. Success for Ukraine and the West lies in turning this hot war into a cold war on terms that leave Ukraine strong enough to survive and ultimately win it. 

Been thinking along those lines for a while now. Win it without any long term term threat to day to day life in the US and the rest of western democracies. This can be achieved with the precious commodity  - time. Milley knows more than anyone outside Ukraine its manpower. Maybe that's why he seems hesitant. He know Russia is screwed but wants to leave Ukraine intact and a give it a start on rebuilding. 

 

A little less panic and a lot more winning would solve a lot of problems. Two of the worst regimes on the planet are teetering on the edge of total failure, and far too many people want to throw them a lifeline instead of kicking them off the cliff. We are utterly fooling ourselves if we think they will do anything except attempt to rebuild, and do something even worse the next time. 

[Beleg85]

More about drones...Cool, it seems Ukrainians has those micro drones (dronelettes? ) that look like child toys taken from bag of cornflakes. I am very curious how they fare in large scale conflict, given they were primarly designed for SF in close-order fighting and have very short operational range.

 

[RockinHarry]

15 minutes ago, dan/california said:

A little less panic and a lot more winning would solve a lot of problems. Two of the worst regimes on the planet are teetering on the edge of total failure, and far too many people want to throw them a lifeline instead of kicking them off the cliff. We are utterly fooling ourselves if we think they will do anything except attempt to rebuild, and do something even worse the next time. 

Exactly. Just like germany of the 1930/early40ies whose inherent militarism and fascism got to be extracted by brute force and determination. Costs were high, but it worked until today. Maybe too well at times, but it worked. One can´t have a militaristic hawk and wimpy peacefull nation with ridiculous military effort same time it seems.

[Kinophile]

 

[kevinkin]

29 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Two of the worst regimes on the planet are teetering on the edge of total failure, and far too many people want to throw them a lifeline instead of kicking them off the cliff. We are utterly fooling ourselves if we think they will do anything except attempt to rebuild, and do something even worse the next time. 

There are no signs of panic in rational thinking or having differing opinions on what's next. No lifelines. Ukraine will retake its lost lands with support from the West. But what is next? Lou Holtz did a lot of winning far from any battlefield while being a cheerleader on the sidelines and in the locker-room. But something tells me football coaches know less than we do about modern warfare and geopolitics. If the Pentagon is struggling with the endgame, cheerleaders are going to struggle even more. Is a newish cold war a possibility - yes. Can we win that - yes. It will take time. It did before. Of course if Russia was without WMD this would all be mute. All quiet on the Eastern Front. But if Russia is "teetering on the edge of total failure", which it is, then now is when the animal is the most dangerous. Just not on the conventional battlefield. Patience now will mean a "next time" might be out of the question. Rand wargame session: guys, bad news all the pieces are gone. What do you mean, gone? Russia's too? Impossible, we were winning all over the map and getting ready for the final push as ordered by the controller, where did they all go? Ok, guys let's go have a beer and restart Monday. At RAND the endgame is relevant as long as we get paid. Next time lets leave a few Starbucks on the board and file our report before the holiday. 

[dan/california]

3 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

There are no signs of panic in rational thinking or having differing opinions on what's next. No lifelines. Ukraine will retake its lost lands with support from the West. But what is next? Lou Holtz did a lot of winning far from any battlefield while being a cheerleader on the sidelines and in the locker-room. But something tells me football coaches know less than we do about modern warfare and geopolitics. If the Pentagon is struggling with the endgame, cheerleaders are going to struggle even more. Is a newish cold war a possibility - yes. Can we win that - yes. It will take time. It did before. Of course if Russia was without WMD this would all be mute. All quiet on the Eastern Front. But if Russia is "teetering on the edge of total failure", which it is, then now is when the animal is the most dangerous. Just not on the conventional battlefield. Patience now will mean a "next time" might be out of the question. Rand wargame session: guys, bad news all the pieces are gone. What do you mean, gone? Russia's too? Impossible, we were winning all over the map and getting ready for the final push as ordered by the controller, where did they all go? Ok, guys let's go have a beer and restart Monday. At RAND the endgame is relevant as long as we get paid. Next time lets leave a few Starbucks on the board and file our report before the holiday. 

If the premise is that Russian elites are too afraid of losing power to oppose the war even though it is grinding Russia to dust? I am pretty certain they are also too scared to have their entire everything turned into radioactive glass. Either they are cowards or they aren't. Being afraid to finish what we have started is irrational unless you are assuming a very selective cowardice .

[kevinkin]

34 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Russian elites

We know Russia is predicated on a wink and nod between the privileged  and the state.  It's not about losing power, it's about losing their life style to the masses. Only a fraction have power stemming from the state. WMD and conventional military decisions are out of their control. So why risk a bullet in the head, when you can behave, circle the wagons, have some fun and pass on the whole mess that Russia is for your kids to figure out? What is an outcome that encompasses "finish"? That can mean a few things off the top of the head. For example, the RA might just far apart to an Operation Unthinkable type finish. Guys, back to work. RAND wants us to think about Operation Unthinkable. I know that's a oxymoron, but orders are orders. 

Edited November 19, 2022 by kevinkin

[Battlefront.com]

Zelensky says Russia is looking for a short term peace deal.  Whether that is actual or suspected is unknown, but his response (expressed at a security summit in Halifax) was as it should be... no peace on Russia's terms.  It seems the US delegation, and others, believe this is the correct course of action.,

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/11/18/zelenskyy-russias-short-truce-halifax-00069493

Steve

[kevinkin]

2 hours ago, RockinHarry said:

Just like germany of the 1930/early40ies whose inherent militarism and fascism got to be extracted by brute force and determination.

The situation is a bit different today since Hitler's heavy water experiments did not pan out. Take Russian WMDs out of the equation, then the strategic situation is completely different and NATO could drive all the way to Moscow if they wanted to. We all know Ukraine will reestablish it's borders on terms imposed on Russia. The question is what's next. Some think Russia can't surrender any land in Ukraine without complete state upheaval. I hope they allow their troops to get destroyed defending stolen ground. But I am not 100% convinced they will do that. Self preservation might lead to a full withdrawal at some point complicating the picture since invading Russia is raising the bar to a new level. 

Edited November 19, 2022 by kevinkin

[dan/california]

14 minutes ago, kevinkin said:

The situation is a bit different today since Hitler's heavy water experiments did not pan out. Take Russian WMDs out of the equation, then the strategic situation is completely different and NATO could drive all the way to Moscow if they wanted to. We all know Ukraine will reestablish it's borders on terms imposed on Russia. The question is what's next. Some think Russia can't surrender any land in Ukraine without complete state upheaval. I hope they allow their troops to get destroyed defending stolen ground. But I am not 100% convinced they will do that. Self preservation might lead to a full withdrawal at some point complicating the picture since invading Russia is raising the bar to a new level. 

I don't think the West will fund and supply an invasion of Russia proper. The AFU general staff is too smart to try anyway. They don't have the manpower to hold the supply GLOCs. Since they just taught the Russians how unfortunate that is i don't think they would make the same mistake. Getting Crimea back, with EU and NATO membership will do just fine. At that point living well is the best revenge.

Speaking of GLOCs the Donbas will far easier to reconquer simply because Russia has tried to get every male citizen of vaguely fighting age killed. their just isn't anybody left to play partisan.

[kevinkin]

Agreed. All of that can be achieved with the current level of western support. Or perhaps a modest increase.  But the weapons themselves will probably remain the same e.g. no M1s or long range missiles right now. A major question is the pace of operations that minimizes UA losses but does not drag on and on. That's above my pay grade even if we knew the correlation of forces that would be involved over the coming weeks. Just emphatically signaling the west is in for the long haul might actually save a lot of Ukrainian lives in the end.  

[RockinHarry]

2 hours ago, kevinkin said:

The situation is a bit different today since Hitler's heavy water experiments did not pan out. Take Russian WMDs out of the equation, then the strategic situation is completely different and NATO could drive all the way to Moscow if they wanted to. We all know Ukraine will reestablish it's borders on terms imposed on Russia. The question is what's next. Some think Russia can't surrender any land in Ukraine without complete state upheaval. I hope they allow their troops to get destroyed defending stolen ground. But I am not 100% convinced they will do that. Self preservation might lead to a full withdrawal at some point complicating the picture since invading Russia is raising the bar to a new level. 

My comment wasn´t entirely serious and sure, with WMD it´s an entirely different game. But the core is still valid. You can´t change nor trust a russian regime like it is principally the same as was Hitler´s greatern germany. Thus the unconditional surrender demand and fighting it through til the bloody end. But it´s 2022 and I´d keep sanctioning and isolating the f*ck out of Putin´s russia. And make the rest of the world doing the same (China, N Korea and Iran excluded off course). Even if Putin retreats out of everything Ukraine and without beeing beaten by UKR forces, what would he do next then? There´s enough adventurous lands on russias periphery and who knows, if Xi decides to take on Taiwan, Putin would be first to send some expeditionary forces and help some out if needed. Brainfarting again....

[kraze]

9 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

Very selective reading. I met nobody claiming it was 100% Ukrainian, even now they say investigation is ongoing and that it is just most probable outcome. "Two missile" theory indeed raise concern, but can fail under sructiny: no official with direct knowledge of the events was talking about 2 missiles as far as I know; in fact there was no "official" preliminary version till well after midnight, just rumours like the ones given to beforementioned MP. It seems like they had no idea what fall there for long hours, so news about 2 missiles could be echo chamber and gossips taken from panicked witness or rationalized cause that was pushed upward; in our era it takes literally 20 mins to create massive storm based on rumours only.

If it was indeed Russian missile shot down, everybody around would know about it, as it would probably leave large debris field around the village or crater size of two-story house in case it expolded. All Kalibr-types are large beasts with massive warhead, not something one can easily hide. Place is pretty well photographed now, and the only place of main fallout we know so far seems this hole under tractor, where clearly were remnants of S-300. Meanwhile even windows and roofs of a building 10-20 m apart are intact.

Unless somebody send Men in Black that within 1,5h completelly cleared evidence of impact of other big misile  and used neuralyzer on all witness (remember, it's not Russia: witness do not fall from windows nor are bound to remain silent, while in such small community info is close to impossible to hide) I find it hard to believe they would be able to cover it. Plus we know from pictures that regular firefighters, policemen and medics were securing place of the incident from beggining well into the night, not some SpecOps.

On other side, if Russian missile fall/was shot down within Ukraine borders close to PL (perhaps Ukrainian members have some info about it?) it would be entirely possible one AA rocket could go dumb. Would be nothing strange in this in fact.

All of it is very mysterious, but perhaps sometimes cigar is just a cigar. We can be sure more than one book will be written about the incident in the future, though.

This also raised suspicions in Poland, but can be explained on legal basis. Danilov demanded (in quite boorish words, to put mildly, considering the circumstances...) immediate access and right to conduct his own investigation. As I understand it, both states lacks even legal acts for conducting separate independent full investigations on each other territory, as it is literally undermining one's trust into sovereignity (which btw was one of reasons why exhumations of Wolhynia massacres were so difficult to conduct on UA soil for so many years). After several hours somebody in PL (or more likely US) side finally figured out it looks pretty bad to block them given gravity of the crisis, so Ukrainian investigation teams were given access to crash site and status of auxiliary investigation with wide insight into collected evidence. I frankly don't know if they have rights to interrogating witness, as couldn't find any info; they could be theoretically given such right on informal courteus basis,as it sometimes happen in such cases. They spend there at least several hours today.

Whatever outcome is fine as long as it's proven to be true. If it's 100% malfunctioned Ukrainian missile - fine. Nobody will ever complain if it's true.

But if actual downplaying is even remotely possible - it opens a whole can of worms, as russians will realize the envelope has been pushed the other way quite a bit.

[kraze]

10 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

On the other side, Ukrainian gov. stubborn insistance it was not theirs raise doubts

And that's another thing. Our government plays foreign policy really safe since February but here are they going all out - raising stakes, taking risks that are otherwise avoided - now why would they do it if they knew they would gain nothing from it but trouble if it's just our malfunctioned missile?

Yes it's obvious that Ukraine, we want as much NATO involvement as possible, while NATO wants as little of it as possible - but this wouldn't be the way to play this - it's just going to piss people off if there's nothing to base it on.

[Taranis]

"A Ukrainian soldier fires an anti-tank missile at an undisclosed location in Donetsk Oblast, Ukraine, November 17, 2022. ROMAN CHOP / AP"

[Zeleban]

After a long break Mashovets resumed his publications.

The command of the enemy troops continues to implement a set of measures aimed at strengthening the combat capabilities of their tactical and operational-tactical groupings of troops in "problem" directions and sectors. Basically, this results in the movement of units and subunits from the former Kherson Guards to these places.

Thus, for the third day in a row, the movement and concentration of forces of the 106th Airborne Division from the enemy Airborne Forces in the Luhansk region has continued. The forward subdivisions of the division have already arrived there and are concentrating in certain positional areas and sections of the terrain. The rear control center of the division has been deployed, and, as the units and subunits of the division arrive, the build-up of the control and communications system of this formation continues. These units were also seen in the Mariupol area during their march in a northeasterly direction.

In addition, the enemy continues to gradually build up the number of tactical reserves in the Svatovsk and Kramatorsk directions. So, north-west of Starobelsk, the deployment of a fresh enemy BTGr (probably from the 1st Guards TA) is recorded - up to 46-48 units of tanks, armored combat vehicles and vehicles.

At the moment, the enemy is actively working to restore the Kerch bridge crossing - out of 4 destroyed spans of the roadbed, 60-meter 300-ton structures have already been laid on 2 (their installation is ongoing in the design position), another 1 is ready for movement, the fourth is at the production base at the stage of anti-corrosion treatment. At the same time, the Russians are actively restoring cable communications, local treatment facilities and other auxiliary equipment of the bridge crossing. The estimated time for full recovery is December 20, 2022.

Repair of the railway crossing (replacement of 2 spans), which received mainly thermal damage, due to its complicated nature (the need to carry out repair work at a height of about 30 meters in the winter period ...), as well as the lack of urgent need, it was decided to complete in the middle of 2023. Moreover, at the moment it is operated in full only with speed restrictions on the movement of freight and passenger trains on this section.