How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Battlefront.com]

Here's a chuckle for a Sunday.  It is from last night's Saturday Night Live host monologue by Dave Chappelle.  I'm posting it here because it's funny, but also it shows how Ukraine's ability to fight is perceived in the US.  Yet another example of how Ukraine and its allies have achieved a decisive victory in the information war against Russia:

Steve

P.S.  the whole monologue was hilarious

[Haiduk]

12 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

So UKR BMP charges trench defense network w one squad.  RU has excellent positions + outnumbers UKR team.  And the RU forces ran away?  This should have been a suicide charge for the UKR team?  Unbelievable reckless courage that succeeded due to utter RU incompetence/lack of morale as far as I can tell.  None of us would ever do this in CMBS or CMCW.  Not this close. 

Likely forces were almost equal - per two squads from both sides. Ukrainian assault group had about 10 dismounts. Two soldiers attacked forward position in front of irrigation canal, other probably was making outflank maneuver. Looks like Russians were surprised, they weren't on positions and even didn't try to occupy its for defense, except 2-3 soldiers.

Edited November 13, 2022 by Haiduk

[dan/california]

4 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

It seems some mobiks are going close to late Napoleonic level of training regarding shooting skills (10-15 bullets a year per musket). Is this what I think it is in the background? If so, pretty symbolic video. 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Main_Cathedral_of_the_Russian_Armed_Forces

 

Unhappy conscripts near Moscow have never caused any trouble before, by which I mean it was St Petersburg the last time.....

 

33 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

So UKR BMP charges trench defense network w one squad.  RU has excellent positions + outnumbers UKR team.  And the RU forces ran away?  This should have been a suicide charge for the UKR team?  Unbelievable reckless courage that succeeded due to utter RU incompetence/lack of morale as far as I can tell.  None of us would ever do this in CMBS or CMCW.  Not this close. 

 

 

1 hour ago, Zeleban said:

A little melee. Ukrainian BMP storms Russian trenches

I have to double down on our hobbit friends commnet. This could only work against troops who were completely at the end of their rope. No atgm/rpg, no mines on the road that leads straight to their position, no morale to even try to fight. I mean mean one sober and minimally competent guy with a light machine gun could turn this into a complete fiasco. I just wonder if the Ukrainians new they were that bad off, or were told to go find out?

Edited November 13, 2022 by dan/california

[Battlefront.com]

2 minutes ago, dan/california said:

I have to double down on our hobbit friends commnet. This could only work against troops who were completely at the end of their rope. No atgm/rpg, no mines on the road that leads straight to their position, no morale to even try to fight. I mean mean one sober and minimally competent guy with a light machine gun could turn this into a complete fiasco. I just wonder if the Ukrainians new they were that bad off, or were told to go find out?

Correct.  We only have to put this next to the video of the two Ukrainian BMPs that did not get so lucky and lost at least one squad dead and another one injured.

Storming positions is always risky, but in both videos the enemy was not properly suppressed and the attacker did not have overwhelming force.

Both videos show that Ukrainian forces still have some basic tactical deficiencies.

Steve

[The_MonkeyKing]

I think very possible. That cape is practically an island and is dominated by Ukrainian fires by rules of geography. 

[Battlefront.com]

Our friends at Hormadske have done it again:

Steve

[dan/california]

41 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Likely forces were almost equal - per two squads from both sides. Ukrainian assault group had about 10 dismounts. Two soldiers attacked forward position in front of irrigation canal, other probably was making outflank maneuver. Looks like Russians were surprised, they weren't on positions and even didn't try to occupy its for defense, except 2-3 soldiers.

Quite willing to believe the drone operator said "these guys are sleeping off the vodka, go, go, go!". A high risk move even so, but then war is risk, everymove made, and not made, has a down side.

[Taranis]

58 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

In comments somebody says they both from Canada, because one speaks French with Quebec accent ) 

The two main soldiers are definitely not from Quebec or from a French-speaking country. Their "R"'s are rolled. They say "petit" instead of "petite", which a French speaker wouldn't do. Quebec spoken is more nasal. They seem rather to legionnaires from Eastern countries (Poland, Romania etc). They also say "Kurwa" but it is a generic term throughout the Legion so not really proof. It's more like the way of speaking of the Polish Legionnaires that I could know. Just my two cents

Edited November 13, 2022 by Taranis

[Haiduk]

37 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

I think very possible. That cape is practically an island and is dominated by Ukrainian fires by rules of geography. 

No any info from our sources, but we have next video as if 73rd SOF Maritime Center sailing on RIBs somewhere...

 

[danfrodo]

44 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

I think very possible. That cape is practically an island and is dominated by Ukrainian fires by rules of geography. 

What on earth are these devious satan-worshipping ukrainians up to???  They don't do things w/o good reason, I just really wonder what it might be? 

If it's a bridgehead it has the advantage of being defensible and not surrounded by RU.  And the disadvantage of being in middle of nowhere. 

[Beleg85]

10 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

No any info from our sources, but we have next video as if 73rd SOF Maritime Center sailing on RIBs somewhere...

Note everyone has NVG googles. There were reportedly struggles with this kind of equipment even among SF guys early in the war.

 

And here more videos of mobiks pushing their commanding officer in Kubinka. The tall guy speaking is probably platoon commander. Videos like these became pretty popular on the rusnet; some Russians suggested it can be part of struggle between MoD and Prigozhin/PMC faction, like famous one with mobiks complaining with train in the background that ultimately happened to be sparked and filmed by Wagnerites.

 

Edited November 13, 2022 by Beleg85

[Haiduk]

22 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

There were reportedly struggles with this kind of equipment even among SF guys early in the war.

SOF always were better equipped with NVm than other, but NV is tiny thing. During the war they are breaking, losing, destroying, so needs in new devices is constatnt and big. Crowdfunding is much more quick way to bring them new toys, than to wait until MoD supply services take care about this.

Edited November 13, 2022 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

@sburke

Major (old photo with captain shoulder strips) Aleksandr Anchikov, chief of staff of motor-rifle battalion of 291st MRR of 42nd MRD, 58th CAA, Southern Military District. Was killed on 12th of November, likely in Zaporizhzhia oblast - there was a report about UKR strike of enemy HQ near Enerhodar, maybe this death is tied with this strike.

 

[Battlefront.com]

15 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Note everyone has NVG googles. There were reportedly struggles with this kind of equipment even among SF guys early in the war.

 

And here more videos of mobiks pushing their commanding officer in Kubinka. The tall guy speaking is probably platoon commander. Videos like these became pretty popular on the rusnet; some Russians suggested it can be part of struggle between MoD and Prigozhin/PMC faction, like famous one with mobiks complaining with train in the background that ultimately happened to be sparked and filmed by Wagnerites.

 

Ah, I think we can safely say that there's a bit of a discipline problem with this unit   The fact that the big guy can just rattle on like that and the officer has to take it, not to mention getting a punch, shows it's REALLY bad.  In peacetime if someone got even 1/10th this insubordinate a half dozen guys would have hauled him away and beaten him senseless.  Maybe even dead.  In this case the officer doesn't even have anybody to back him up, as they're all in Ukraine or dead.

This is where an officer would pull out his pistol, shoot the big guy dead, and then ask who wants to be next.  But this officer knows that if he does that he's going to die soon after.  So he has to stand there and take it.

Yup, that's an impressive army you have their Vlad!

Steve

[Haiduk]

Russian TG Evil Tar writes today several NATO ELINT planes have been patroling over Black Sea - US RQ-4B, UK RC-135, E-3C and French Atlantique II - as if the same mass activity was spotted on the eve of UKR USVs attack on Russian ships... Well, let's see...

Edited November 13, 2022 by Haiduk

[Haiduk]

Second destroyed radar of such type from allegedly five or six, produced before 2022. First was destroyed in Lazurne, Kherson oblast in July 

 

[FancyCat]

One good thing is that Combat Mission can stimulate morale and training deficiencies that make it possible for such a action to occur in the game. 

[dan/california]

9 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

One good thing is that Combat Mission can stimulate morale and training deficiencies that make it possible for such a action to occur in the game. 

Steve made an interesting comment a while back that he might have to add an even lower grade of modifiers for the worst of the Russian troops. This video actually cries out for a test scenario. It is simple enough to copy almost exactly.

Edited November 13, 2022 by dan/california

[Beleg85]

2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Ah, I think we can safely say that there's a bit of a discipline problem with this unit   The fact that the big guy can just rattle on like that and the officer has to take it, not to mention getting a punch, shows it's REALLY bad.  In peacetime if someone got even 1/10th this insubordinate a half dozen guys would have hauled him away and beaten him senseless.  Maybe even dead.  In this case the officer doesn't even have anybody to back him up, as they're all in Ukraine or dead.

This is where an officer would pull out his pistol, shoot the big guy dead, and then ask who wants to be next.  But this officer knows that if he does that he's going to die soon after.  So he has to stand there and take it.

Yup, that's an impressive army you have their Vlad!

Steve

Unfortunatelly, it's just nice episode and not some wide trend of giving up on combat. Kremlin may wish to web such videos into narration of "bad advisors, good Tsar"; if they will be elastic enough, they may even defend/promote the big guy as "honest grunt from Russian soil" contrasted with "reptiles and skuns sucking the army from inside" (using standard Soloviev words).  Sacrifizing small fishes in order to remove some pressure is long tradition of Russian state apparatus. They are rather good at mental control over population if only Putin give them blessing to be more flexible. Frankly they would be very stupid to not creatively use this video for their own advantage. "Tsar hear your pain, my children. Guilty and corrupted officials will pay. Now, go back to your trenches."

3 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Our friends at Hormadske have done it again:

Damn good video.

3 hours ago, Taranis said:

They seem rather to legionnaires from Eastern countries (Poland, Romania etc). They also say "Kurwa" but it is a generic term throughout the Legion so not really proof. It's more like the way of speaking of the Polish Legionnaires that I could know. Just my two cents

Very interesting, Romanians use it as well indeed but in less broad contexts and the guy is definitelly Romanian. There are so many "Polish mercenaries" in muscovite narration one could think all IL soldiers can use this very dirty and diverse word as their warcy.

Edited November 13, 2022 by Beleg85

[OldSarge]

7 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Very interesting, Romanians use it as well indeed but in less broad contexts. There are so many "Polish mercenaries" in muscovite narration one could think IL soldiers use this very dirty and diverse word as their warcy.

Okay, you made me curious enough to go look it up! I see soldier are carrying on the fine tradition of referring to each other with colorful nicknames.

[Calamine Waffles]

9 hours ago, Taranis said:

"Ukrainian army firing near Soledar, in the Donetsk region. UKRAINIAN ARMED FORCES/VIA REUTERS"

Love the M-46.

In other news, the ZSU's 30th OMBr is the proud owner of a brand new T-90M Proryv-3.
 

 

[Beleg85]

Thread about Kinburn peninsula and its importance (PL, autotranslate). Yellow line potential Ukrainian defensive areas, red- range of cover for Ukrainian artillery from beyond the river; orange- rough  range of Russian artillery if pushed down south. Seems slightly overoptimistic to me, and many pro-UA accounts seem to be doing suspiciously lot of noise about battles there.

 

[danfrodo]

11 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Thread about Kinburn peninsula and its importance (PL, autotranslate). Yellow line potential Ukrainian defensive areas, red- range of cover for Ukrainian artillery from beyond the river; orange- rough  range of Russian artillery if pushed down south. Seems slightly overoptimistic to me, and many pro-UA accounts seem to be doing suspiciously lot of noise about battles there.

 

So what does this person think is the purpose of UKR taking this peninsula??

[Sojourner]

the attack on Kinburn was significant in that it demonstrated that the French and British fleets had developed effective amphibious capabilities and had technological advantages that gave them a decisive edge over their Russian opponents.The destruction of Kinburn's coastal fortifications completed the Anglo-French naval campaign in the Black Sea; the Russians no longer had any meaningful forces left to oppose them at sea.

 

Oh, wait, that was 1855.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Kinburn_(1855)

Edited November 13, 2022 by Sojourner

[Beleg85]

30 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

So what does this person think is the purpose of UKR taking this peninsula??

Basically what Haiduk said, pushing Russians off ports of Mikolaiev and Tilihul river and securing most of Dnieper delta. Generally keeping linear control over this terrain culd be difficult for both sides, but presence of light forces supplied by helicopters, riverine boats and through small harbours (mind this big batch promised by USA) could be advantagous  for Ukraine. Additionally raids can keep Russian attention to this sector of the front, and Russian BS (love this acronym... )Fleet seem to sit in Sevastopol, being too heavy to interdict UA movements in thsi area.

I am just not sure he correctly calculated ranges for artillery.

20 minutes ago, Sojourner said:

the attack on Kinburn was significant in that it demonstrated that the French and British fleets had developed effective amphibious capabilities and had technological advantages that gave them a decisive edge over their Russian opponents.The destruction of Kinburn's coastal fortifications completed the Anglo-French naval campaign in the Black Sea; the Russians no longer had any meaningful forces left to oppose them at sea.

 

Oh, wait, that was 1855.

+1. Very specific place, full of history. Additional historcial fact is that Zaporozhian Cossacks habitually used KInburn and its wilderness to move their nimble chaikas boats when coming back from their raids on Ottoman shores. Thus they circumvented Ochakiv fortress that was in Ottoman hands. So Ukrainian specials on motorboats in XXI cent. may have very ancient forebearers, in a way. In generall these old raids on Byzance/Turkey shores by Varegs/Rus and Cossacks are rather obscure to many Western maritime historians, but they were really impressive in scale and execution, given how primitive was pre-modern technology.

Edited November 13, 2022 by Beleg85