How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[NamEndedAllen]

1 hour ago, dan/california said:

but if we aren't shipping it to Taiwan we ought to be shipping it to Ukraine.

So difficult not to give in to the “end it now with the weapons necessary” position. The USA Administration without doubt has more direct information that bears on the policy restrictions on the necessary weapons to decisively evict Russia and its war criminals from Ukraine. Not knowing the details and seeing the massive terror attacks on civilians across Ukraine is excruciating for us. But far worse for those enduring each day and night of living and dying from this marauding murderous mob with guns.

Perhaps as some have remarked, things will move towards decisive action after the elections next Tuesday. Although they appear to be bringing there own set of difficulties.

Edited November 1, 2022 by NamEndedAllen

[NamEndedAllen]

From ISW’s Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 31

“Russian forces conducted another massive wave of missiles strikes targeting critical Ukrainian infrastructure across the country on October 31, likely in an attempt to degrade Ukraine’s will to fight as temperatures drop. Russian forces fired over 50 Kh-101 and Kh-555 missiles from the northern Caspian Sea and the Volgodonsk region of Rostov Oblast, targeting critical Ukrainian energy infrastructure.[1] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian air defenses shot down 44 out of over 50 Russian missiles.[2] Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal reported that the strikes damaged 18 mostly energy-related targets across 10 Ukrainian regions.[3] Ukrainian officials reported that Russian strikes cut off water to 80% of Kyiv residents on October 31 and left hundreds of thousands without power.[4]”. -

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-october-31

[Battlefront.com]

46 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

It seems weather is worsening. Traditionally good coverage from Hromadske.

Definitely worth watching!  Some tidbits I got from this:

1. ammo for UA is not a big problem, but Russians had some problems and fire slackened off for a while
2. not much regard for the gunnery skills of the Russians
3. also thinks that Bakhmut is being focused on simply because Russians don't have anything else they think they can take
4. UA fires surrender leaflets!  I figured they were doing stuff like this, but this is the first time I've heard a specific example (other than Internet)
5. the battery commander is career Army and has been fighting since the war started.  Nothing wrong with this guy's morale!
6. it's always good to have an older soldier with you, if not for the wisdom than at least for the comic relief!  "The dwarf should have been gone a long time ago, the worms are already crying for him" cracked me up
7. towards the end one of the guys commented on what we've discussed here before... the large scale, wasteful use of Russian artillery during the summer.  As he put it, they would saturate an area randomly even if there was nobody there.  The fields we've seen in drone videos show this to be totally accurate depiction of Russian artillery practices.  At least earlier in the war.  Now that they are running out of shells and gun barrels I suspect that's not happening any more.
8. they said Russian artillery is vastly less than it used to be.  They said for every 1 shell they shot, Russia would shoot 10-15 back at them.  Now they say it's about 2 back at them, which is still more but a significant improvement because they have "thinned them out"

BTW, I just bothered with looking up the journalist, Anastasia (Natasia) Stanko.  I've sung her praises many times, but just now learned that she covered the war in 2014 up close and personal.  Or maybe was reminded, as I might have seen her reporting back then.  She was even captured by the LPR during the early days.  Wiki says she helped found Hromadske.

Steve

 

[Battlefront.com]

Another knife fight engagement.  This time between (so it is said) Ukrainian tank and Russian BMP.

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarRoom/comments/yihmv2/ukrainian_tank_destroys_russian_bmp_carrying/

Someone should tell the Russians that if they want to do proper recon, they need to drop off the infantry and wait for them to advance ahead of the vehicle.  Sheesh.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

Another sign of cracks between Russia and its traditional Near Abroad relationships.  Armenia, allied with Russia, has supposedly banned a bunch of high profile Russians from entering Armenia.  Margarita Simonyan, the wicked witch of the east and of Armenian descent, is amongst them.  The reason cited is their criticism of the Armenian government for not having its head far enough up Putin's backside:

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/hawkish-russian-broadcaster-simonyan-says-she-has-been-banned-armenia-2022-10-26/

Steve

[danfrodo]

34 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Another knife fight engagement.  This time between (so it is said) Ukrainian tank and Russian BMP.

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarRoom/comments/yihmv2/ukrainian_tank_destroys_russian_bmp_carrying/

Someone should tell the Russians that if they want to do proper recon, they need to drop off the infantry and wait for them to advance ahead of the vehicle.  Sheesh.

Steve

they advanced to within ~75 meters of a tank and didn't see it, that's amazing.  We're seeing video of a LOT of close combat in this war.  Scary as hell. 

[Battlefront.com]

ISW pointing out yet another defeat for Russia.  It's stated goal of creating an occupation zone that is fully integrated into the Russian economy didn't work:

Quote

Russian occupation authorities in Kherson Oblast announced that they would allow the use of Ukrainian hryvnias alongside Russian rubles, demonstrating the failure of their monthslong rubleization efforts in Kherson. The Russian deputy head of the Kherson Occupation Administration, Kirill Stremousov, announced on October 30 that the “dual currency system has returned to Kherson markets” and that vendors must accept rubles, but can use rubles and hryvnias.[62] Occupation officials mandated an exchange rate of 1.25 rubles to one hryvnia, a rate that heavily favors those who hold rubles. The actual global exchange rate at time of publication is about 1.68 rubles per hryvnia. Occupation officials had previously spoken of a “single economic complex” between Russia and occupied Ukrainian territories as early as April 6.[63] The Kherson Occupation Administration had announced on May 1 that Kherson Oblast would transition entirely to a ruble economy by September 1.[64] Poor economic conditions and a thriving hryvnia black market likely led occupation authorities to allow the use of the hryvnia, possibly to capture additional revenues from those transactions.

The failure of Russian occupation administrators to impose the ruble demonstrates that their efforts to degrade Ukrainian governance capabilities and Ukrainian identity in occupied areas are likely floundering. Ukrainian national identity and patriotism in Russian-occupied areas has remained, although Ukraine will face difficulties in rebuilding the institutions (and local economies) that Russian occupiers have destroyed as Ukrainian forces liberate additional territory.

You might have noticed some videos from Russian sources as of late about trying to force Ukrainian businesses into accepting only the Ruble as payment.  There was even a video of Stremousov pushing the issue at a gas station.  Seems forcing Ukrainian businesses to accept a Moscow dictated fantasy exchange rate didn't help any.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

2 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

they advanced to within ~75 meters of a tank and didn't see it, that's amazing.  We're seeing video of a LOT of close combat in this war.  Scary as hell. 

Hey, we've been telling you CMers this is entirely realistic for, what, 20 years now?

Atmospheric conditions aren't great (looks to be light rain), the driver of the BMP has to not only deal with dropping off infantry, but also negotiating difficult muddy terrain without getting stuck.  His visibility sucks anyway, so add these things in and it sucks even more.  Same thing for the commander.

Couple this with a (probably) well camouflaged tank and bad recon, well it just isn't a good day for the Russian side.

Steve

[Offshoot]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

Definitely worth watching!  Some tidbits I got from this:

The thing that struck me was when he said getting intelligence was difficult because drones don't fly (for both sides) because of the weather. Perhaps this is obvious, but it is not something I had considered. Given the importance of drones in this war, I wonder how much this will impact the way it is fought for this period.

[kevinkin]

In so many videos, I have been impressed by the age of the Ukrainian soldier. Is this an artifact of who is allowed to be on tape? Or is the warrior mentality part of their culture to a point where even older men are well trained and ready to face off against Russia? I believe it's the latter and the country will remain free because of that mind set. And here I think a round of golf on a hilly layout is exercise. Of course I do get to practice both mounted and dismounted operations as long as it's not raining. And the halfway house is a worthy objective when logistics (college beer girl's cart) breaks down.

Edited November 1, 2022 by kevinkin

[JonS]

6 hours ago, JonS said:

I'll try and dig it out.

@Letter from Prague

[Twisk]

1 hour ago, kevinkin said:

In so many videos, I have been impressed by the age of the Ukrainian soldier. Is this an artifact of who is allowed to be on tape? Or is the warrior mentality part of their culture to a point where even older men are well trained and ready to face off against Russia? I believe it's the latter and the country will remain free because of that mind set. And here I think a round of golf on a hilly layout is exercise. Of course I do get to practice both mounted and dismounted operations as long as it's not raining. And the halfway house is a worthy objective when logistics (college beer girl's cart) breaks down.

Men in their 50s would have had conscription service still in the Red Army.

I do not know Ukrainian decision making but if mobilizing for war maybe older man who had served period of conscription is better than younger man who has not. (also) most video content is not from prime combat units.

Edited November 1, 2022 by Twisk

[womble]

18 minutes ago, Twisk said:

Men in their 50s would have had conscription service still in the Red Army.

Also, it's been noted before that the Ukrainians have had most of a decade to cycle their military service personnel through "hot" or, at least, "hot adjacent" zones, which would make for a bunch of 20-30 (ish) year olds who'd already "seen the elephant" before March '22. I don't know whether reservists were treated the same way at all through this time, to keep their knowledge fresh, but even if all they did was their 6 weekends and a fortnight a year out in the field, plus more frequent "barracks" work, the very palpable existence of the Russian threat and rumbling active conflict will no doubt have concentrated their minds and efforts admirably during those training times.

[Probus]

Is this a different angle or instance?

 

Edited November 1, 2022 by Probus
Totally Ninja'd

[Probus]

12 hours ago, Letter from Prague said:

Finally we have video proof of Banderites attacking poor Donbass children with HIMARS:

 

Fort Sill. That's not too far away from me. 

[Beleg85]

 

9 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Definitely worth watching!  Some tidbits I got from this:

1. ammo for UA is not a big problem, but Russians had some problems and fire slackened off for a while
2. not much regard for the gunnery skills of the Russians
3. also thinks that Bakhmut is being focused on simply because Russians don't have anything else they think they can take
4. UA fires surrender leaflets!  I figured they were doing stuff like this, but this is the first time I've heard a specific example (other than Internet)
5. the battery commander is career Army and has been fighting since the war started.  Nothing wrong with this guy's morale!
6. it's always good to have an older soldier with you, if not for the wisdom than at least for the comic relief!  "The dwarf should have been gone a long time ago, the worms are already crying for him" cracked me up
7. towards the end one of the guys commented on what we've discussed here before... the large scale, wasteful use of Russian artillery during the summer.  As he put it, they would saturate an area randomly even if there was nobody there.  The fields we've seen in drone videos show this to be totally accurate depiction of Russian artillery practices.  At least earlier in the war.  Now that they are running out of shells and gun barrels I suspect that's not happening any more.
8. they said Russian artillery is vastly less than it used to be.  They said for every 1 shell they shot, Russia would shoot 10-15 back at them.  Now they say it's about 2 back at them, which is still more but a significant improvement because they have "thinned them out"

BTW, I just bothered with looking up the journalist, Anastasia (Natasia) Stanko.  I've sung her praises many times, but just now learned that she covered the war in 2014 up close and personal.  Or maybe was reminded, as I might have seen her reporting back then.  She was even captured by the LPR during the early days.  Wiki says she helped found Hromadske.

Yup. However it should be noted we cannot generalize it to whole sector, as different other sources on the ground clearly say that Bakhmut are is under massive strikes every day. So perhaps part of Russian artillery is beyond their reach.

Nastia Stanko has very cool vibes with soldiers. There was also another female journalist in one of non-translated channels that stand out, but forget her name.

 

Meanwhile, brutal trolling continues...

[Kinophile]

16 hours ago, Zeleban said:

The enemy in this area during his "reconnaissance in force" suffered at least two sanitary losses.

? I could make a joke about stolen toilets, but that would just be potty...

Edited November 1, 2022 by Kinophile

[Battlefront.com]

5 hours ago, womble said:

Also, it's been noted before that the Ukrainians have had most of a decade to cycle their military service personnel through "hot" or, at least, "hot adjacent" zones, which would make for a bunch of 20-30 (ish) year olds who'd already "seen the elephant" before March '22. I don't know whether reservists were treated the same way at all through this time, to keep their knowledge fresh, but even if all they did was their 6 weekends and a fortnight a year out in the field, plus more frequent "barracks" work, the very palpable existence of the Russian threat and rumbling active conflict will no doubt have concentrated their minds and efforts admirably during those training times.

This is most likely the correct answer for the regular Army units (I presume this is the 93rd, as she's usually reporting with them).  A lot of these soldiers, young and old, have seen combat in 2014 or after.  The battery commander was a platoon leader during 2014.  In fact, the reporter herself did as well.

Ukraine has always recognized that 2014 was an incomplete move by Russia to wipe them off the map.  They've been waiting for this moment ever since.  It seems to me that a very high percentage of professional soldiers and volunteers (UAVs, medical, supplies, etc.) have remained active all 8 years to some extent.  I constantly see references to soldiers who have died in this war that had severed in the earlier part of the 8 year period.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

5 hours ago, JonS said:

@Letter from Prague

Yikes!  I would have smacked the CO a couple of times for not having done a practice run first.  If only to make sure the candy made it intact to the tots.  The fact that they didn't do that is what the kids these days call an "epic fail".

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

29 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Yup. However it should be noted we cannot generalize it to whole sector, as different other sources on the ground clearly say that Bakhmut are is under massive strikes every day. So perhaps part of Russian artillery is beyond their reach.

These guys are in the Bakhmut sector, but as you say they could be on the edge of it.  However, their point is still valid because for most of the war whatever sector they've been in (I presume Izyum if this is the 93rd) they've seen much, much worse attention by Russian artillery than they are seeing now.  A few months ago Russia would be hitting the peripheries of Bakhmut, and pretty much everywhere, with lots of artillery.  Now it seems they have to be selective with their use of artillery.  Which is what we've been hearing from other sources.

Steve

[Kinophile]

9 hours ago, Offshoot said:

The thing that struck me was when he said getting intelligence was difficult because drones don't fly (for both sides) because of the weather. Perhaps this is obvious, but it is not something I had considered. Given the importance of drones in this war, I wonder how much this will impact the way it is fought for this period.

I shot a Hyundai gig last week, 6 days. On D5 afternoon it was pouring rain and 35-50km winds up by Newmarket. We were shooting in carrot farm country, so extremely little hedge/tree growth near us. In addition to the U-Crane car and a truck-rigged RED Komodo, we had a drone unit, "DRONE BOY" from Toronto, shooting with their FPV "Beast" drone.

"Beast" as a name is a bit of overhype...it's a perfectly good drone, well operated, but anything above 35km is almost unusable. Gusting is the worst, with rain being the nail in the coffin - you can't protect the lens much on a drone like you (somewhat) can on a rigged or craned camera. The drone could also easily flip (despite top/bottom rotors) and faceplant itself in a carrot patch.

In later casual conversation with the drone guys, I asked was anything in development to handle these kind of wet, windy conditions. Basically, no, becuase - Physics is a bitch.  Essentially, the problem is the physical format of a camera-carrying drone - it's a horizontal, wide frame that in higher winds is fundamentally prone to turning into a wing and flipping itself. Your engines are fighting that uplift constantly, which drains the battery quicker than a teenager empties their parents wallet. To help you can increase the weight of the frame, but now your engines need even more power, etc, etc - Oh hello, engineering design death spiral...

By the time you've got a drone designed to where it can smoothly and easily handle this weather and above then you might as well get a proper helo.

Situations like this (sorta rough weather but totally workable in), which overwhelm your average size+* drone are why there will still be blank spots in the tactical ISR of any battlefield.

It implies also that good infantry will make better use of bad weather to penetrate enemy positions, especially if they bring a few disposable drones.

 

*_{I cant speak to MIL-specific designs, maybe they can handle rough weather better but...physics doesn't care if you're a civvy or a sergeant...}

Edited November 1, 2022 by Kinophile

[Kinophile]

5 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Yikes!  I would have smacked the CO a couple of times for not having done a practice run first.  If only to make sure the candy made it intact to the tots.  The fact that they didn't do that is what the kids these days call an "epic fail".

Steve

Only from the perspective of everyone but the Sgt. From his view it was a battlefield success....

[womble]

Winds are only (that much of) a problem for flying drones. Your ISR bubble next-up will have crawler/creeper/walker/runner/roller scout drones as well, because of that. They'll be small, and infiltrate ahead of time at night, radio-silent. They'll creep under bushes and climb up trees under autonomous guidance (to maintain opsec), then come awake as needed to be the eyes of the force they're scouting for.

There'll be active ones nearer the fighting forces, too. Obviously, a ground drone doesn't get the great view that a flying one does, so you'll need more of 'em. But most FOs have been footsloggers (or at best passengers in a ground vehicle), historically, so you're just not getting the additional improvement of being airborne.

Cyberpunk RPG players have probably already developed SOPs the military could use as a starting point.

[billbindc]

10 minutes ago, womble said:

Winds are only (that much of) a problem for flying drones. Your ISR bubble next-up will have crawler/creeper/walker/runner/roller scout drones as well, because of that. They'll be small, and infiltrate ahead of time at night, radio-silent. They'll creep under bushes and climb up trees under autonomous guidance (to maintain opsec), then come awake as needed to be the eyes of the force they're scouting for.

There'll be active ones nearer the fighting forces, too. Obviously, a ground drone doesn't get the great view that a flying one does, so you'll need more of 'em. But most FOs have been footsloggers (or at best passengers in a ground vehicle), historically, so you're just not getting the additional improvement of being airborne.

Cyberpunk RPG players have probably already developed SOPs the military could use as a starting point.

We've had artillery launched mines for a long time. When are we going to have artillery launched cameras/sensors/monitors? 

[kevinkin]

Take with a grain of salt, but if even a grain is true:

https://www.the-sun.com/news/6574028/putin-parkinsons-pancreatic-cancer-russian-insider-reveals/