How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[akd]

13 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

For sure the boats hand 0.000000% to do with the Kherson bridge attack that already happened.  I think (hope) he meant in the future.  Though, of course, we already knew of these suicide boats before so it's not a new thought.

Steve

I think you all are confusing Kherson bridge and Kerch Strait bridge, but regardless, 75kg HE charge is not going to do much to either.

[cyrano01]

27 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

R-37 is new missile (maybe you confused it with older R-33?), which was adopted in 1997 and R-37M in 2014. They can attack a target, wich maneuvers up to 8g

Probably, my understanding was that the R37M was the most recent which they finished testing around 2018 but I may have that wrong (if you have an up to date source on RU AAMs that would be great) 

 

https://web.archive.org/web/20180713203827/http://www.janes.com/article/81633/new-russian-long-range-aam-integration-to-expand-to-four-fighter-models

[NamEndedAllen]

7 hours ago, Kinophile said:

Personally  I've zero interest in the Phillies or anything sports spamming up this thread. 

Understood and you are correct. Suitably chastened, I humbly apologize for inappropriate material. Weakness in a moment of joyful over-exuberance in an otherwise unhappy time while watching over declining family member. Not to mention the rest of world grimness.

[Huba]

26 minutes ago, akd said:

I think you all are confusing Kherson bridge and Kerch Strait bridge, but regardless, 75kg HE charge is not going to do much to either.

It might do a lot to the Kherson "barge bridge" I guess, though the best use of such boat would probably be as recon asset to direct GMLRS strikes at the crossing troops. 

I imagine that something way larger, with say 500kg payload could also be useful, perhaps a submersible?

[cesmonkey]

When I have Google translate some of the Russian websites where people are encouraging their soldiers success against the enemy (Ukraine), I will see phrases like: "Work Boys, Work!" perhaps as if they are saying, "Good Hunting!" to someone in English.

Can one of our Russian speakers provide some insight on what this phrase more precisely means in this context? 

Is fighting a battle akin to a arduous labor task for which one must put out maximum and sustained effort?

[Haiduk]

Another video of mopping-up of Russian positions in tree-plant after arty strike. Survived Russian has thrown grenade from own blindage, but it hit at obstacle and fell back to blindage

 

[Haiduk]

46 minutes ago, cesmonkey said:

When I have Google translate some of the Russian websites where people are encouraging their soldiers success against the enemy (Ukraine), I will see phrases like: "Work Boys, Work!" perhaps as if they are saying, "Good Hunting!" to someone in English.

Can one of our Russian speakers provide some insight on what this phrase more precisely means in this context? 

Is fighting a battle akin to a arduous labor task for which one must put out maximum and sustained effort?

This phrase close by sense to "[keep] work, brothers, [keep] work!" This is meme phrase, wich appeared since 2016 - then Dagestanian Vakhabit fighters seized a Russian policeman (also Dagestanian), when he rested during vacation with own brother. When Vakhabits knew he is policeman, they decided to execute him. They filmed execution on camera and wanted that policeman would appeal to own colleagues that they would quit their service. But policeman said only "Work, brothers, work!" and was shot. 

Since this phrase became initially for Russian police and later for all force structures some sort of action slogan, meaning of unleashing all their power and fury on the enemy of Russia. New breath this phrase has got since Donbas war, where it was adressed already to "Donbas militants" and Russian volunteers 

Edited October 29, 2022 by Haiduk

[JonS]

4 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

I should ban you for putting that thought into my mind.  If you had described his thigh hairs as being the method for shaping the rounds I probably would have.

 

4 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

 If you had described his thigh hairs as being the method for shaping the rounds I probably would have.

 

4 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

described his thigh hairs as being the method for shaping the rounds

 

4 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

 his thigh hairs

 

[Calamine Waffles]

1 hour ago, cyrano01 said:

Probably, my understanding was that the R37M was the most recent which they finished testing around 2018 but I may have that wrong (if you have an up to date source on RU AAMs that would be great) 

 

https://web.archive.org/web/20180713203827/http://www.janes.com/article/81633/new-russian-long-range-aam-integration-to-expand-to-four-fighter-models

I mean 1997 was 25 years ago, so it's hardly 'new' by any stretch of the imagination.

[danfrodo]

45 minutes ago, NamEndedAllen said:

Understood and you are correct. Suitably chastened, I humbly apologize for inappropriate material. Weakness in a moment of joyful over-exuberance in an otherwise unhappy time while watching over declining family member. Not to mention the rest of world grimness.

Sorry to hear that, just went through that too. 

And on the sports front, this is not about sports but about what's being shown during sports.  Some group called "citizens for sanity" put multiple ads up during world series game last night and again during college football today.  Straight up attacks and fear mongering aimed at Ukraine aid (and Biden).  It looked so much like something directly paid for by Putin.  Generally this group does fear mongering about crime & immigration but now are attacking Ukraine aid, saying "world war III' w videos of nuke tests in the background.  Ex white house punk Stephen Miller is on the board of this group, so is not as fringe as one might hope.  And these are expensive ads so someone is funding this at a very high level.

[Battlefront.com]

1 hour ago, akd said:

I think you all are confusing Kherson bridge and Kerch Strait bridge, but regardless, 75kg HE charge is not going to do much to either.

Right you are!  Kherson is on my brain.  As you say, though, it's not going to do squat to brig pylons.  Would sink a ferry or barge bridge pretty thoroughly I would think!

Steve

[Haiduk]

5 minutes ago, Calamine Waffles said:

I mean 1997 was 25 years ago, so it's hardly 'new' by any stretch of the imagination.

By the way western Air Forces hasn't equivalent

@cyrano01

Here the article in Russian about upgaded R-37M:  https://testpilot.ru/rossiya/vympel/r-37m/

And other artcle, in Enflish about both R-37 and R-37M: https://en.missilery.info/missile/r37

[Battlefront.com]

14 minutes ago, JonS said:

 

 

 

 

Cheeky bugger!  As the Black Knight once said, "Roight!  I'll do you for that!"

Steve

[Calamine Waffles]

3 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

By the way western Air Forces hasn't equivalent

@cyrano01

Here the article in Russian about upgaded R-37M:  https://testpilot.ru/rossiya/vympel/r-37m/

And other artcle, in Enflish about both R-37 and R-37M: https://en.missilery.info/missile/r37

Western air forces did not have one because it doesn't really fit into their doctrine and until relatively recently there was no real threat that required such a long range missile. That, however, is changing, which is one of the reasons why JATM is being developed.

[dan/california]

25 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Right you are!  Kherson is on my brain.  As you say, though, it's not going to do squat to brig pylons.  Would sink a ferry or barge bridge pretty thoroughly I would think!

Steve

I am wondering about a kayak sized shaped charge. I think that might really inconvenience a bridge pylon. Could the kayak get there is another question, but the bottom in term terms of Russian incompetence seems a long way down an oil well.

[Letter from Prague]

33 minutes ago, Calamine Waffles said:

Western air forces did not have one because it doesn't really fit into their doctrine and until relatively recently there was no real threat that required such a long range missile. That, however, is changing, which is one of the reasons why JATM is being developed.

I think Meteor also comes near (if not close).

 

______________

Apparently Russia has blocked and then later unblocked Telegram. Fascinating.

[chrisl]

10 minutes ago, dan/california said:

I am wondering about a kayak sized shaped charge. I think that might really inconvenience a bridge pylon. Could the kayak get there is another question, but the bottom in term terms of Russian incompetence seems a long way down an oil well.

The Kerch bridge pylons aren’t set into bedrock like they’re supposed to be.  Which means they’re just sitting on/in silty bottom.    Displace a bunch of that silt from underneath one of the tall ones, or put some cracks in it, and the lever arm of the load might help it find a lower energy state. 75 kg probably won’t do it, but 500 kg might.  Doesn’t take a very big kayak to carry that.

[danfrodo]

19 minutes ago, Letter from Prague said:

I think Meteor also comes near (if not close).

 

______________

Apparently Russia has blocked and then later unblocked Telegram. Fascinating.

So was test by Putin, just making sure he could do it when he wanted to?  Was shot over the bow to some telegram groups?  What do y'all think?  This doesn't happen w/o a Putin-level purpose I would think.

[Ts4EVER]

1 minute ago, danfrodo said:

So was test by Putin, just making sure he could do it when he wanted to?  Was shot over the bow to some telegram groups?  What do y'all think?  This doesn't happen w/o a Putin-level purpose I would think.

Or some typo somewhere that they quickly fixed

[Beleg85]

2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Kadyrov admits to the casualties his TicTok Warriors suffered the missile strike we saw a few days ago.  Puts the deaths a little lower than Ukraine (23 vs 30), with over 50 wounded.  Of course I don't trust Kadyrov, but the numbers might actually be real.  Whatever the case is, clearly Ukraine's strike wasn't less effective than Ukraine claimed it to be:

https://news.yahoo.com/chechen-leader-23-chechen-soldiers-064058876.html

There was a video of bodies, somebody counted similar number in it. Kadyrov could not pretend it didn't happen as it was probably largest single loss of life on his side from the start of the conflict. He is still raging on his social media accounts, announcing jihad constantly etc. There wee some additional rumours (but just rumours from Ichkerians abroad) he raged because his fat sons could be in danger of being Himarsed at one point despite promise of his field commanders they will be outside of combat zone.

Short thread about repercussions of Russia suspending grain deal. In short- Putin struck the deal when he was thinking all was going well. Now it doesn't, so will now escalate further. Dangerous situation; upside of this  suituation may be West will finally have a pretext to provide ATACMS and more heavy equipment to Ukraine.

 

[danfrodo]

20 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

There was a video of bodies, somebody counted similar number in it. Kadyrov could not pretend it didn't happen as it was probably largest single loss of life on his side from the start of the conflict. He is still raging on his social media accounts, announcing jihad constantly etc. There wee some additional rumours (but just rumours from Ichkerians abroad) he raged because his fat sons could be in danger of being Himarsed at one point despite promise of his field commanders they will be outside of combat zone.

Short thread about repercussions of Russia suspending grain deal. In short- Putin struck the deal when he was thinking all was going well. Now it doesn't, so will now escalate further. Dangerous situation; upside of this  suituation may be West will finally have a pretext to provide ATACMS and more heavy equipment to Ukraine.

 

Beleg85, you are saying that RU attacks on grain shipments will cause NATO to supply weapons that will have range to knock out the weapons that target the ships?  Every other escalation of Putin's has backfired, so hopefully this one also. 

Unless you are "Citizens for Sanity" in the US, which thinks Putin taking Ukraine is just dandy, because he'll certainly stop there -- I've heard it's his last territorial demand.

[Huba]

36 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

Beleg85, you are saying that RU attacks on grain shipments will cause NATO to supply weapons that will have range to knock out the weapons that target the ships?  Every other escalation of Putin's has backfired, so hopefully this one also. 

Unless you are "Citizens for Sanity" in the US, which thinks Putin taking Ukraine is just dandy, because he'll certainly stop there -- I've heard it's his last territorial demand.

I don't think it is possible to really stop Russians from attacking the grain shipment if they chose to do it, they have more than enough naval aviation to sink anything floating on the Black Sea. But what they can't do is a close blockade of Ukrainian shore, as even leaving Sevastopol sounds rather risky at the moment. Any action they take will have to be kinetic. Mining by aviation or subs seems most likely, as any damage from mines can be blamed on Ukrainians relatively easily. Missile attacks against port facilities are also likely. When this starts happening again, I think the grain shipments will stop, unless some third countries decide to get involved and convoy them (very unlikely IMO). OTOH if that happens, or even in case of some "blockade runners" deciding to go to Odessa for the grain despite the Russian withdrawal from the deal, I doubt they would dare to directly attack these vessels.

 

[Beleg85]

57 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

Beleg85, you are saying that RU attacks on grain shipments will cause NATO to supply weapons that will have range to knock out the weapons that target the ships?  Every other escalation of Putin's has backfired, so hopefully this one also. 

Unless you are "Citizens for Sanity" in the US, which thinks Putin taking Ukraine is just dandy, because he'll certainly stop there -- I've heard it's his last territorial demand.

Just theorizing. It is more about countering his escalation. Since (in his mind) he is waging very restrained war and grain deal was not convenient for Russia, he will bid higher now. West will need put even more stick and carrot on the table. I think at this stage most Western politicians are sane enough not to step back when this deluded old man throw another tantrum. Also expect a lot of pressure from countries of Global South + Turkey on Ukraine and NATO; breaking the deal aligns very well with his attempt to mobilize some of Third World against "imperialistic opressors". Probably soon Lavrov will take another pilgrimage around the world.

I am curious if Ukrainians prepared for this move planning Sevastopol attack. I hope so.

6 minutes ago, Huba said:

I don't think it is possible to really stop Russians from attacking the grain shipment if they chose to do it, they have more than enough naval aviation to sink anything floating on the Black Sea. But what they can't do is a close blockade of Ukrainian shore, as even leaving Sevastopol sounds rather risky at the moment. Any action they take will have to be kinetic. Mining by aviation or subs seems most likely, as any damage from mines can be blamed on Ukrainians relatively easily. Missile attacks against port facilities are also likely. When this starts happening again, I think the grain shipments will stop, unless some third countries decide to get involved and convoy them (very unlikely IMO). OTOH if that happens, or even in case of some "blockade runners" deciding to go to Odessa for the grain despite the Russian withdrawal from the deal, I doubt they would dare to directly attack these vessels.

True, but I don't think it will come to full scale military action on Black Sea; too many involved actors and chaotic outcomes. Putin will probably try to play it politically to gain something, with limited ships sinking as one of the tools.

Edited October 29, 2022 by Beleg85

[NamEndedAllen]

2 hours ago, danfrodo said:

Sorry to hear that, just went through that too. 

And on the sports front, this is not about sports but about what's being shown during sports.  Some group called "citizens for sanity" put multiple ads up during world series game last night and again during college football today.  Straight up attacks and fear mongering aimed at Ukraine aid (and Biden).  It looked so much like something directly paid for by Putin.  Generally this group does fear mongering about crime & immigration but now are attacking Ukraine aid, saying "world war III' w videos of nuke tests in the background.  Ex white house punk Stephen Miller is on the board of this group, so is not as fringe as one might hope.  And these are expensive ads so someone is funding this at a very high level.

Thanks. Tough time, nearing the end. We’ve had much too much of this in our already not large family the past very few years. But…Miller? I wasn’t aware of these protests. Had been pleased to see the high passions in sports here having no violence. But Miller still at it. Should not be surprised, but am disgusted. I only hope his influence and the other Russophiles are not empowered with increased  influence by the upcoming elections. Legislation (including support for Ukraine) can and is often blocked by a minority. Americans DO support Ukraine in very large numbers. Unfortunately or otherwise, our system allows much hornswoggling. 

[Beleg85]

Interesting thread...Muscovite version of FUBAR would be bardak, but it is still understatement.