How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[dan/california]

The last 20 seconds are the most interesting. The Russians are VERY aware they got their heads handed to them in Kharkiv. If Ukraine can inflict a real blow at Kherson, and not just squeeze them out...

Edited October 23, 2022 by dan/california

[Battlefront.com]

Good footage of Ukrainian T-80 moving around and shooting.  Montage with unrelated soundtrack.  At one point the commander's gun appears to have a round go off out of battery (fireball flash):

 

Steve

[dan/california]

Further evidence that the penny is starting to drop for the Russians/L/DPR soldiers that things are NOT going well.

[Battlefront.com]

I think this is a fake:

To me it looks like someone put a flag on the bridge and uploaded it.  I doubt Ukraine has forces entering Kherson.

However, reports from several sources say that Mylove is now in Ukraine's hands.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

9 minutes ago, dan/california said:

Further evidence that the penny is starting to drop for the Russians/L/DPR soldiers that things are NOT going well.

These calls crack me up.  "Call the President".  Yeah right.  Hey, even if the wives could just go ahead and do that, guess who signed off on deploying the cannon fodder in the first place?

The Russian ability to consistently blame everybody but the Tzar for their misery is really something.

Steve

[MikeyD]

Its been so long that I forgot which side was scheduled to get T80BV for the CMBS module. It was Ukraine. So mystery tank might not be captured Russian after all, it might be from their own domestic stock. Though Russia did donate a LOT of T80s to the Ukraine army earlier in the year.

Sigh... the module. One of the casualties of the war.

 

[dan/california]

All the models can be used in the new post war game can't they? 

[Battlefront.com]

This video starts out looking like the usual mobik complaint/appeal video, but keep watching to the end.  This is something different:

ISW and others have been relaying reports about Russian soldiers in Kherson region changing into civilian clothing, as they did outside of Kyiv in large numbers.  Here's some evidence of it:

 

[G.I. Joe]

3 minutes ago, dan/california said:

All the models can be used in the new post war game can't they? 

Along with a fair number of CMCW assets...

[Battlefront.com]

Destroyed YPR-765, probably a mine.  Note that this vehicle has its running gear totally stripped off and hit so hard that it nearly flipped over, yet it looks like the hull did not get breached.  I really hope either it was dismounted or that everybody was inside instead of riding on top.  Because if they were inside they probably got banged up, but survived.  Top?  Not as likely.

 

 

[Battlefront.com]

Interviews conducted at the end of September in Moscow.  I cued the video to the end for this:

This guy's clips are spread throughout the whole video.  He says that there are almost no Ukrainian soldiers, but instead they are Poles and others hired by the Americans to destroy Russia.  In the end the interviewer asked what would have happened if Russia had left Ukraine alone and his answer was that NATO would be "closer" and that would threaten Russia.  So obviously Russia had to act.  But then, Russia has nukes, so would they really have attacked?  With each of these questions it is clear he's finding it harder and harder to come up with the "correct" answer.  At the end, when asked how would Ukraine have attacked Russia since Russia has nukes he just gives up and says "I don't know".

This is, IMHO, a good encapsulation of every argument I've seen and personally had with Russian nationalists and apologists since... cripes... the days of USENET.  They are quick to describe all the threats NATO poses to Russia, but can't seem to figure out why they would be fools enough to attack a nuclear power.  And with that, all the blather that came before it is shown to be hollow.  And yet they still keep it up after all these decades. 

Steve

[sburke]

2 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

They are quick to describe all the threats NATO poses to Russia, but can't seem to figure out why they would be fools enough to attack a nuclear power. 

Steve

Jewish space lasers.  

[chuckdyke]

4 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

And yet they still keep it up after all these decades. 

Like the Cold War. East Germans had the Trabant West Germans produced Mercedes and BMWs. West Germany didn't need barbed wire to keep West Germans in West Germany but the East Germans needed it to keep people from escaping. The real invasion was by Coca Cola and everything what comes with it Burgers, Fried Chicken etc. They just can't stand the idea that the Ukraine becomes a West European country. 

[Homo_Ferricus]

6 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Interviews conducted at the end of September in Moscow.  I cued the video to the end for this:

This guy's clips are spread throughout the whole video.  He says that there are almost no Ukrainian soldiers, but instead they are Poles and others hired by the Americans to destroy Russia.  In the end the interviewer asked what would have happened if Russia had left Ukraine alone and his answer was that NATO would be "closer" and that would threaten Russia.  So obviously Russia had to act.  But then, Russia has nukes, so would they really have attacked?  With each of these questions it is clear he's finding it harder and harder to come up with the "correct" answer.  At the end, when asked how would Ukraine have attacked Russia since Russia has nukes he just gives up and says "I don't know".

This is, IMHO, a good encapsulation of every argument I've seen and personally had with Russian nationalists and apologists since... cripes... the days of USENET.  They are quick to describe all the threats NATO poses to Russia, but can't seem to figure out why they would be fools enough to attack a nuclear power.  And with that, all the blather that came before it is shown to be hollow.  And yet they still keep it up after all these decades. 

Steve

I'll play devil's advocate.

Clearly this random pedestrian in Moscow puts up a pathetic argument... but you can't just say, "We have nukes, the hell do we care what they do?" If Mexico became devoutly pro-Russian and anti-US overtly in their policy and government, I believe the US would in fact (ultimately) interfere with direct action in order to prevent or reverse that course from occurring or continuing. But we have nukes--why do we care or feel threatened by Mexico? Well, international relations is a lot more complicated than, "are we afraid of being invaded" as it turns out.

Not to revive the ancient conversation of capability=threat, distance to Moscow and Russia traditionally relying on depth for it's strategic defense, etc.

 

EDIT: also wanted to mention 1420 is a great channel for westerners that want to see a sample of what actual everyday Russians feel and think. The subtitles aren't always precise and I highly recommend paying attention to body language and the way words are spoken, not just the written text. Russian sarcasm runs deep.

Edited October 23, 2022 by Homo_Ferricus

[Calamine Waffles]

Pretty good video of proper tank-infantry coordination
 

 

[dan/california]

Makes Kraze on a bender seem positively reasonable.

[Elmar Bijlsma]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

Good footage of Ukrainian T-80 moving around and shooting.  Montage with unrelated soundtrack.  At one point the commander's gun appears to have a round go off out of battery (fireball flash):

There's a better cut of it on reddit that shows the ammo bin eating a round, the TC chucks it soon after. btw, keep watching that DShK until the end. TC owes his life to that hunk off metal twice over.

https://old.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/yb1th2/russian_towed_artillery_convoy_runs_straight_into/

 

Oh, and I've been holding on to a video clip for the last few weeks. Seems now is the time to post it:

"I am giving up,

I've had enough,

I can't keep this up,

you've got Mylove".

Pretty much the thinking of the Russians at Kherson, I'll bet.

Edited October 23, 2022 by Elmar Bijlsma

[Calamine Waffles]

T-80 uses an NSVT, not DShK, but it is a good video.

[Battlefront.com]

Article about Russia's need to secure Western technologies for military equipment prior to the war and how they attempted to do it:

https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-western-military-technology-indictment-/32095089.html

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

23 minutes ago, Homo_Ferricus said:

I'll play devil's advocate.

Clearly this random pedestrian in Moscow puts up a pathetic argument... but you can't just say, "We have nukes, the hell do we care what they do?" If Mexico became devoutly pro-Russian and anti-US overtly in their policy and government, I believe the US would in fact (ultimately) interfere with direct action in order to prevent or reverse that course from occurring or continuing. But we have nukes--why do we care or feel threatened by Mexico? Well, international relations is a lot more complicated than, "are we afraid of being invaded" as it turns out.

True, but if the West had it in their heads to directly undermine Russia for real, they don't need Ukraine to do that.  NATO already borders Russia and is, in fact, only a few miles away from Russia's second most important city of St. Petersburg.  As far as Russia's most important city, Moscow, it is about as far away from the Baltics as it is Ukraine.  The "launchers" he says would be a threat if they were positioned in Ukraine apparently isn't afraid of them being in the Baltics.

This is why even the devil's advocate attempt at finding credibility in Russia's long standing view of NATO is not very successful.

Steve

[Elmar Bijlsma]

13 minutes ago, Calamine Waffles said:

T-80 uses an NSVT, not DShK, but it is a good video.

You are correct, but sadly this will not stop me calling every Russian .50 a DShK.

[Battlefront.com]

23 minutes ago, Elmar Bijlsma said:

There's a better cut of it on reddit that shows the ammo bin eating a round, the TC chucks it soon after. btw, keep watching that DshK untril the end. TC owes his life to that hunk off metal twice over.

https://old.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/yb1th2/russian_towed_artillery_convoy_runs_straight_into/

 

Oh, and I've been holding on to a video clip for the last few weeks. Seems now is the time to post it:

"I am giving up,

I've had enough,

I can't keep this up,

you've got Mylove".

Pretty much the thinking of the Russians at Kherson, I'll bet.

Heh.  I originally put the Redit video here, but thought the Twitter ones were the same.  Whenever I post a Redit video I try to find an alternative because of the idiotic "autoplay" problem, even if I find it later.

I couldn't really tell of the gun to a hit or a round detonated out of battery.  I presumed out of battery as it's more likely.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

2 minutes ago, Elmar Bijlsma said:

You are correct, but sadly this will not stop me calling every Russian .50 a DShK.

Yeah, but there are none of those.  They all are chambered to use 12.7×108mm

Steve

[dan/california]

 

3 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

True, but if the West had it in their heads to directly undermine Russia for real, they don't need Ukraine to do that.  NATO already borders Russia and is, in fact, only a few miles away from Russia's second most important city of St. Petersburg.  As far as Russia's most important city, Moscow, it is about as far away from the Baltics as it is Ukraine.  The "launchers" he says would be a threat if they were positioned in Ukraine apparently isn't afraid of them being in the Baltics.

This is why even the devil's advocate attempt at finding credibility in Russia's long standing view of NATO is not very successful.

Steve

The thing that would really move NATO closer to Moscow is Belarus switching sides, after Lukashenko has his appointment with a lamp post of course. From eastern Belarus Moscow would be in ATACMS range. i suspect they won't like that very much.

[Elmar Bijlsma]

10 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Yeah, but there are none of those.  They all are chambered to use 12.7×108mm

Steve

It might not be .50 BMG, it's still .50 cal.

Just for that, I am going to start calling KPVs DShKs too.

 

*edit*

From the video it looked like the fire didn't come from the breech. And the yeeting shortly afterwards of the bin increases my faith the description was correct. HOWEVER, I will concede it can be called an out of battery if the excitement happens in the bin. It's 'out of battery+'.

Edited October 23, 2022 by Elmar Bijlsma