How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Butschi]

35 minutes ago, Huba said:

I don't have words to express how utterly stupid and embarrassing this is  They next parliamentary elections are a year from now, the levels of craziness will only be increasing during this time. Long time ago I promised to myself not to vote on the other team (the previously ruling PO/ Civic Platform) due to their arrogance and ineptness, but I'm reconsidering, PiS is slowly but surly destroying the country, especially in the international relations department. They won't rule forever in any case, Kaczynski is getting older and when he's gone they will surely rip each other apart.

No sweat! I was of course ruthlessly trying to deflect another round of Germany bashing.

In theory I kind of sympathize, I mean I can see why a democratically elected Polish government would not feel bound by whatever a Soviet puppet regime agreed to. Of course neither West- nor East Germany were independent countries at that time and by that logic we could demand the return of Pomerania and Silesia. Or repayment. Maybe we should do that. Say... 1.3 trillion €?

On a serious note: PiS must know that the chances are for reparations at this moment are even below zero. Right now, when the German government takes massiv debts to keep everything afloat, it would be (not only political) suicide to give into such demands. So, is this just for the own audience?

[CAZmaj]

Russian submarine carrying ‘doomsday weapon’ disappears from harbor: Reports

https://americanmilitarynews.com/2022/10/russian-submarine-carrying-doomsday-weapon-disappears-from-harbor-reports/

 

[Huba]

16 minutes ago, Butschi said:

In theory I kind of sympathize, I mean I can see why a democratically elected Polish government would not feel bound by whatever a Soviet puppet regime agreed to. Of course neither West- nor East Germany were independent countries at that time and by that logic we could demand the return of Pomerania and Silesia. Or repayment. Maybe we should do that. Say... 1.3 trillion €?

Allrighty, as soon as we get the money for the lost territories in the east. Lithuania and Belarus will be easilly coerced, but I hear these Ukrainians are rather uncompromising lately...  

16 minutes ago, Butschi said:

On a serious note: PiS must know that the chances are for reparations at this moment are even below zero. Right now, when the German government takes massiv debts to keep everything afloat, it would be (not only political) suicide to give into such demands. So, is this just for the own audience?

Absolutely, it is for internal consumption, or to be precise, for the relatively narrow group that forms the core of their voters base. The anti-German sentiment is still relatively strong here among some of older people whose parents went through WW2. Spice it up with a bit of bigotry,  disenchantment with the post 89 transformation (that has to be blamed on somebody) and here you go. There are others too ,who can't differentiate between standing up for yourself and making unreasonable demands.
Civic Platform, their archrival that previously ruled for 2 terms was very pro-European, perhaps even too naive in it's approach, and PiS by definition has to be an antithesis of them - they started together as a single coalition, and after the dramatic breakup their conflict defines the Polish political scene since last 20 years. 

Edited October 5, 2022 by Huba

[beardiebloke]

14 hours ago, Grossman said:

The info I have is that 4 HIMARS are in the package

https://kyivindependent.com/news-feed/reuters-625-million-us-military-aid-package-expected-to-include-4-himars

@Probuswas asking about "HE Anti-personnel HIMARS" and I found this:

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/9/30/2126197/-Ukraine-update-Russia-prepares-for-advance-on-Svatove-as-U-S-provides-powerful-new-rockets

@danfrodois the "LIBERAL SITE, ENTER AT OWN PERIL" warning mandatory?

Their source seems to be this tweet: 

I guess they're not particularly controversial so I don't see why this couldn't be true.

These look deeply unpleasant from the RU infantry's point of view.  Not sure when they would be used if UKR has precision artillery shells, perhaps if they get intel on a big, soft-ish target in RU's rear.

[Huba]

Just now, beardiebloke said:

@Probuswas asking about "HE Anti-personnel HIMARS" and I found this:

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/9/30/2126197/-Ukraine-update-Russia-prepares-for-advance-on-Svatove-as-U-S-provides-powerful-new-rockets

@danfrodois the "LIBERAL SITE, ENTER AT OWN PERIL" warning mandatory?

Their source seems to be this tweet: 

I guess they're not particularly controversial so I don't see why this couldn't be true.

These look deeply unpleasant from the RU infantry's point of view.  Not sure when they would be used if UKR has precision artillery shells, perhaps if they get intel on a big, soft-ish target in RU's rear.

US never specified which GMLRS rockets they are delivering specifically, this photo is just a first proof of this particular type that made it to twitter.
There was also rumor started by WarGonzo a few days ago that UA was also firing M26 DPICM rockets - but there was zero confirmation or other sources claiming that.

[Taranis]

"A Ukrainian soldier on a BM-21 'Grad' multiple rocket launcher, October 4, 2022. YASUYOSHI CHIBA / AFP"

"Ukrainian soldiers prepare to fire a BM-21 'Grad' multiple rocket launcher towards Russian positions in the Kharkiv region on October 4, 2022. YASUYOSHI CHIBA/AFP"

"A BM-21 'Grad' multiple rocket launcher fires at Russian positions in the Kharkiv region on October 4, 2022. YASUYOSHI CHIBA/AFP"

[FancyCat]

 

 

 

 

[Zeleban]

 

[Beleg85]

25 minutes ago, Butschi said:

On a serious note: PiS must know that the chances are for reparations at this moment are even below zero. Right now, when the German government takes massiv debts to keep everything afloat, it would be (not only political) suicide to give into such demands. So, is this just for the own audience?

They know, Kaczyński said it himself he will not see it during his lifetime. It is both for domestic support (PiS will have a problem with sky-rocketing prices and inflation) and external pressure in case German government trying to scholtz its ways out of different security initiatives. He also hopes that with time the issue will start to sink into narrative and at minimum prevent Germans from forgetting about their "special" responsibility for history of CEE Europe. The case with Namibia was similar in this regard- it started as one great "Are you kidding bro?" and ended in Germany finally paying their debts (under different name).

I would speculate reaparations are more about recognition of historical fault than about money. Also, don't need to add this whole affair has hothing to to with this war and NS2.

 

 

[kraze]

27 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

 

 

 

 

This is a very important example of what russian "opposition" really is and why I personally dislike them so much.

Also bonus: her godfather is literally putin himself. Not kidding here. It's even more telling how deeply "Navalny camp" is rooted into the imperial "family", sometimes quite literally.

[FancyCat]

BBC Russia has done some amazing work in Russia throughout the conflict. Article below details losses among the 2nd Guards Spetsnaz Brigade of the GRU. Apparently lots of officers dead throughout its time in Ukraine since February, latest, was defending Lyman. Of particular note, the BBC reports that Russia attempts to hide the composition of units that are forced into defeats, emphasizing only less prestigious units.

A example given in the article, turns out personnel from the 18th Guards Motor Rifle Division, part of the Russian Navy’s Kaliningrad garrison, the 11th Army Corps, was also stationed in Kharkiv oblast and overrun during the Izyum offensive.

https://www.bbc.com/russian/news-63134219

Edited October 5, 2022 by FancyCat

[Huba]

Regarding Snihurivka:

 

[FancyCat]

 

 

 

[Beleg85]

Meanwhile, it seems in the night Russians abandoned Chervony Yar and even Mylove...which if true, means they have no fixed line of defence. Splendid.

 

More rochades in Russian high command...Zhydko again taking command of the EMD. Not that it mean something significant regarding RU attitude to war.

 

[Tenses]

What I think will be increasingly important is how Ukraine will cope with more and more of alcoholics at the borders with Russia. Russians might want to create pressure on the borders to displace UKR units necessary to push into occupied territories.

[Zeleban]

A number of Russian telegram channels are discussing the upcoming grandiose changes in the leadership of the Russian armed forces. It looks like purges are planned in the ranks of the Russian General Staff

[Grigb]

RU reports:

Quote

The fighters of the Wagner Group broke through the defense of the Armed Forces of Ukraine along the Podgornoye - Klinove highway, rolled over it and entered Artemovsk [Bakhmut] from the side of the Trubny Stavka.

What is interesting is Trubny stavok is actually Eastern Pond at Industrial zone

It means they again entered Patrisa Lumumba Street and are trying to move to the Industrial zone. But why they are so cryptic about location? Looks like the destruction of the previous Wagner unit was so painful they decided to avoid announcing the name of the street where it happened.  

Now I am really curious about that battle.  

[Kinophile]

3 hours ago, beardiebloke said:

@Probuswas asking about "HE Anti-personnel HIMARS" and I found this:

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/9/30/2126197/-Ukraine-update-Russia-prepares-for-advance-on-Svatove-as-U-S-provides-powerful-new-rockets

@danfrodois the "LIBERAL SITE, ENTER AT OWN PERIL" warning mandatory?

Their source seems to be this tweet: 

I guess they're not particularly controversial so I don't see why this couldn't be true.

These look deeply unpleasant from the RU infantry's point of view.  Not sure when they would be used if UKR has precision artillery shells, perhaps if they get intel on a big, soft-ish target in RU's rear.

Like say,  when a company or two are trying to cross a wide river, just as they start embarking on to barges.... 

[Grigb]

17 minutes ago, Zeleban said:

A number of Russian telegram channels are discussing the upcoming grandiose changes in the leadership of the Russian armed forces. It looks like purges are planned in the ranks of the Russian General Staff

Rumors are Zolotov will become Minister of Defence. But grain of salt with the size of Jupiter is needed. 

[Taranis]

Doesn't remember if this was already published here :
Good sumup of the many problems of the Russian army (command, logistics, manpower, morale etc)

 

 
"In the Lyman sector, Russian trucks used to transport artillery ammunition were destroyed by Ukrainian strikes. ADRIEN VAUTIER/THE PICTORIUM FOR “LE MONDE”"


"A Dnipro-1 soldier explores a building destroyed by the Russian army. Lyman, October 4, 2022. ADRIEN VAUTIER/LE PICTORIUM FOR “LE MONDE”"

↓↓Warning may be graphic for some ↓↓

Quote

"In a street in Lyman, the Russian army abandoned the bodies of several of its soldiers at the time of the retreat, Lyman (Donbass), October 4, 2022. ADRIEN VAUTIER / LE PICTORIUM FOR "LE MONDE"

 

[Beleg85]

1 minute ago, Grigb said:

Rumors are Zolotov will become Minister of Defence. But grain of salt with the size of Jupiter is needed. 

If true, it would be big development. Zolotov is dumber than Boudionny was, but unlike him he is not even military man. He is absolutelly loyal though. That means Putin himself wants to controll everything in this war. We could also expect further rise of the Kadyrov, as Zolotov seems to be his genuine pal, in contrast to the rest of Russian security apparatus.

 

Perhaps posted before and not novel to members of this forum, but it is always worth to share links to History Visualized, as he nicely sums up Russian problems in Ukraine:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AcgzB9hqxqo

 

[Lethaface]

3 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

They know, Kaczyński said it himself he will not see it during his lifetime. It is both for domestic support (PiS will have a problem with sky-rocketing prices and inflation) and external pressure in case German government trying to scholtz its ways out of different security initiatives. He also hopes that with time the issue will start to sink into narrative and at minimum prevent Germans from forgetting about their "special" responsibility for history of CEE Europe. The case with Namibia was similar in this regard- it started as one great "Are you kidding bro?" and ended in Germany finally paying their debts (under different name).

I would speculate reaparations are more about recognition of historical fault than about money. Also, don't need to add this whole affair has hothing to to with this war and NS2.

AFAIK Germany has been quite vocal about their recognition of the historical fault in WW2?

[Huba]

Visegrad, but it's confirmed:

And a new Rybar map of the north. Situation seems to be so liquid that this can hardly be very accurate, and as usual with Rybar, the expected attack routes of the ZSU are probably already being assaulted.

There still is no map, or even any information on UA progress in Kherson today. From what I read, it is reasonable to assume that Mylove and Chervonyi Yar are taken, but no confirmation yet. Apart from that, there's total blackout.

[Grigb]

Mashkovets

Quote

Apparently, the command of the enemy troops of Svatove direction (mainly the forces and weapons of the Western military District) is preparing to conduct an operational-scale counter-offensive operation... in order to defeat the advancing AFU group... More precisely, one of his flanks.
About this, in detail - in tomorrow's review... in the evening...

 

[Grigb]

Mashkovets about RU mogilization

Quote

News from the fields of Russian mobilization

The total number of caught "chmobiks" (partially mobilized) in the first wave actually amounts to 91.2 thousand corpses, not "more than 200 thousand", as it is semi-officially distributed in the infosphere by the relevant Kremlin structures.

The mobilization tension of the Russian mobilization system (i.e., the number of mobilized RU can simultaneusly "process" - to form, prepare, equip, arm, etc.) is no more than 65-67 thousand "caught" reservists.

Within the next month, the "first queue" of chmobiks, which can be used with [at least] minimal hope for its usefulness, will not exceed the figure of 17-18 thousand "trained \ restored" military personnel from among the "first wave" [of mobilized].

According to the Main Organizational and Mobilization Department of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation (GOM of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation) "... carrying out partial mobilization faced difficulties in a number of districts with an organizational and technical nature and resource insufficiency ...".

In my opinion, almost the entire "first wave" will go to complement the already deployed units, units and formations of the Russian army group operating on the territory of Ukraine. The issue of forming new reserve components (at least at the operational level) is extremely debatable for the command of the enemy troops today.