How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[akd]

Claims that Ukrainian forces are through all the defense lines along the right bank of the Dnieper and into the Russian operational rear:

 

[dan/california]

14 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Hardly a "dressing down" - I do have to keep in mind civies have a different definition of this.

It was a discussion on political cost versus battlefield gain.  I seriously doubt those were UA AP minefields - if they were the clock is ticking on the PR blowback.  Of course the Russians are using them, they are 1) dumb and 2) the bad guys).  We in the west need a clear definition between the "good guys" and "bad guys".  We can tolerate some grey in there but not too much.

Of course for anyone that has been to war, we know this distinction is just dumb.  It is "bad guys" (normally us) and "worse guys" (them).  There is little "good" in the thing.  I don't tell war stories because of any internal trauma - I stopped because everyone looks at you differently afterwards and I got pretty tired of that.

It could be the Ukrainians got claymores out as part of their hasty defensive lines in the woods. It would have been the tactically smart thing to do to go with the fire power being deployed to make the road all but impassable. If it went down anything like I think it did it didn't take long for Russian wrecks to jam the road completely. 

Edit: And we apparently sent a bunch of them fused for manual triggering only.

Edited October 2, 2022 by dan/california

[Huba]

According to this RU telegram, UA are rolling along the Dnipro shore like crazy, and are almost halfway to Nova Kakhovka dam... It is being reported more and more, and even if a bit overoptimistic, there's definitely something going on in there:

This is also the place where WarGonzo noted the M26 use. Good luck to RU counterattacks... 

Edited October 2, 2022 by Huba

[dan/california]

1 minute ago, Huba said:

According to this RU telegram, UA are rolling along the Dnipro shore like crazy, and are almost halfway to Nova Kakhovka dam... It is being reported more and more, and even if a bit overoptimistic, there's definitely something going on in there:

 

The Ukrainians seem to have been offended by this annexation farce.

[Battlefront.com]

4 hours ago, Zeleban said:

Here is such an anecdote. It turns out that all this time Putin prevented the supply of all the most modern weapons to the front. Now it's time for the latest technology in the Russian army

Ah, more wonder weapon theories!  We've been hearing this the whole war.  At least the credible experts in the West stopped saying stuff like this months ago, even if it took them too long to do so.  Now we only see the nutjobs like Ritter and Macgregor saying things like this now, and of course their media hosts who keep putting them on camera.

However, I do think there's a small grain of truth to this.  It does seem that Russia held back a lot of its post-Soviet tanks and IFVs. 

We noted at the start of the war that the bulk of the T-90s and BMP-3s had not been committed to Ukraine.  This has been shifting slowly as the war went on, however it does seem that we are seeing more of both recently.  3rd Army Corps seems to have received a lot of "good" equipment and the last combat units being stripped from the border areas had better equipment. 

Obviously the sentiment in that Russian post is otherwise laughable, but it could be that Russia finally scraped the bottom of the Soviet era barrel and is forced to empty it's post-Soviet barrel as well.

Steve

[dan/california]

The thing that stands out to me is that to attack right down the riverbank like this the Russian artillery on the other side must have been HEAVILY suppressed.  LLF brought this up in the last ~24 hours.

 

Edit: Or perhaps the Russians have managed a classic case of panicking late, and the attack in Kherson rolled out as soon as some of the supporting elements on the east bank of the Dnipro were put on a train for a long trip to Luhansk.

Edited October 2, 2022 by dan/california

[dan/california]

15 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

3rd Army Corps seems to have received a lot of "good" equipment and the last combat units being stripped from the border areas had better equipment. 

The 3rd so called Army Corps seems to have been a stealth lend lease program for Ukraine.

Edit: It was nice of them to send most of the new stuff with manuals.

Edited October 2, 2022 by dan/california

[dan/california]

https://www.google.com/maps/place/Nevs'ke,+Luhansk+Oblast,+Ukraine,+92917/@49.1777595,37.9247594,22670m/data=!3m1!1e3!4m5!3m4!1s0x412063eca4ad174d:0x3b5a4943f3e41f42!8m2!3d49.1700174!4d37.9758365!5m1!1e4

Did I mention the AFU were not going to stop until the Russians made them? This would cut a major road North of Kremina.  If the Russians can't hold at the next water obstacle a ~8 kilometrs to the east the AFU could flank them out of Kremina and Severodonetesk in a single go. Going to be an ugly Monday morning at the MOD in Moscow.

[Haiduk]

Maybe this is our PsyOps to inflict panic, but here is RUMINT as if UKR troops already broke through the defense lines near Dudchany, having 17 tanks and 11 BMP.

Girkin asesses UKR forces, advancing from the north as 3-4 mech.battalions and 1 tank battalion

Edited October 2, 2022 by Haiduk

[Battlefront.com]

27 minutes ago, akd said:

Claims that Ukrainian forces are through all the defense lines along the right bank of the Dnieper and into the Russian operational rear:

 

Great!  This is the breakthrough we've all been waiting for.  Of the different axis of attack we've seen Ukraine pursue, this is the one that had the biggest chance of success.  Credit to the Russians for putting up a stiff defense, because I thought this was going to happen over a month ago after Ukraine made it's initial gains in the sector.

Here we see the big difference in how Russia treated Kherson and Kharkiv.  Russian troops in Kherson have been digging in for months now, including concrete reinforced strong points.  Kharkiv, on the other hand, got seemingly no attention at all.  Total complacency.

When Ukraine punched through in Kherson it found another defensive belt it had to breach.  In Kharkiv, it found nothing but administrative checkpoints at key roads.

However, Russians in Kherson didn't reinforce every single town with endless defensive belts and has limited forces/ammo to support them.  Looks to me that Ukraine has found the last of the defenses along the Dnepr and that means we could see spectacular advances (relatively speaking) in the next couple of days.

I expect Ukraine to put maximum eastward pressure on Russian lines from the Davydiv Brid area bridgehead.  The Russians are incapable of counter attacking, therefore the forces along the Inhulets River are going to have to withdraw or be annihilated.  I suspect a more orderly withdrawal from the forces there, but who knows

Steve

[keas66]

Oh boy ...

 

[Taranis]

57 minutes ago, Huba said:

According to this RU telegram, UA are rolling along the Dnipro shore like crazy, and are almost halfway to Nova Kakhovka dam... It is being reported more and more, and even if a bit overoptimistic, there's definitely something going on in there:

This is also the place where WarGonzo noted the M26 use. Good luck to RU counterattacks... 

Ghost Division ?

 

[akd]

18 hours ago, akd said:

Col. Alexey Kharechko, unit unknown:

@sburke @Kinophile

Col. Kharechko was deputy commander for the 4th Military Base.

https://antikor.com.ua/ru/articles/571490-vsu_v_zaporohje_likvidirovali_11_okkupantov_16_ranili_sredi_200-h_zamestitelj_komandira_iz_rf

[Haiduk]

UKR column came under arty and helicopters strike in Davydiv Brid area. Despite Rybar claims, looks like personnel abandoned vehicles and fled - no totally destroyed and burned vehicles are visible, though some of them of course, damaged. Among abandoned vehciles two armored cars Kozak-2 and VAB

 

[Huba]

3 minutes ago, Taranis said:

Ghost Division ?

 

I thought of the same, Sabaton is my secret guilty pleasure 

[Taranis]

1 minute ago, Huba said:

I thought of the same, Sabaton is my secret guilty pleasure 

That's all we wish for the Ukrainians, a breakthrough worthy of 7.PzD 

[The_Capt]

1 hour ago, dan/california said:

It could be the Ukrainians got claymores out as part of their hasty defensive lines in the woods. It would have been the tactically smart thing to do to go with the fire power being deployed to make the road all but impassable. If it went down anything like I think it did it didn't take long for Russian wrecks to jam the road completely. 

Edit: And we apparently sent a bunch of them fused for manual triggering only.

That is because the M18 is an “area weapon system”, not an AP mine.  In fact the Ottawa treaty does not cover booby traps or other “static explosive devices” so who knows what the troops are up to out there in the wild.  I expect IEDs of all sorts are in play because teenagers and explosives are like love, they will find a way.

Edited October 2, 2022 by The_Capt

[Haiduk]

Local pro-Russian citizen of Kremmina:

Evacuation begins from first mine with column of buses. At 20:00 five buses. For 200 persons. Only according to lists of administration! They don't care about people, who were waiting Russia here! Ukies are nearby. Novodruzhevka abandoned by our valiant forces. It's will be tough. This is terrible!!!  

Interesting thing here is a claiming that Russins/LPR have abandoned Novodruzhesk (which she mistakingly  called Novodruzhevka) - this is settlement NW next to Lysychansk. If this true, probably UKR troops advansed from Bilohorivka and lekely already controlled Shypylivka and maybe even Pryvillia - other villages in Siverskyi Donets bend between Lysychansk and Kreminna. 

Edited October 2, 2022 by Haiduk

[Huba]

14 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

Local pro-Russian citizen of Kremmina:

Evacuation begins from first mine with column of buses. At 20:00 five buses. For 200 persons. Only according to lists of administration! They don't care about people, who were waiting Russia here! Ukies are nearby. Novodruzhevka abandoned by our valiant forces. It's will be tough. This is terrible!!!  

Interesting thing here is a claiming that Russins/LPR have abandoned Novodruzhesk (which she mistakingly  called Novodruzhevka) - this is settlement NW next to Lysychansk. If this true, probably UKR troops advansed from Bilohorivka and lekely already controlled Shypylivka and maybe even Pryvillia - other villages in Siverskyi Donets bend between Lysychansk and Kreminna. 

What a day! You could easily get dizzy from just trying to keep up with the developments. Let's see what happens in next few days, but if it's all confirmed we could easily be looking at start of general RU collapse - here, I said it, somebody had to!

Edited October 2, 2022 by Huba

[billbindc]

2 hours ago, akd said:

Claims that Ukrainian forces are through all the defense lines along the right bank of the Dnieper and into the Russian operational rear:

 

I'm a bit skeptical. It's a limited space with some of the most professional Russian units. I'll be very surprised if there's open field running on this front. 

[Huba]

3 minutes ago, billbindc said:

I'm a bit skeptical. It's a limited space with some of the most professional Russian units. I'll be very surprised if there's open field running on this front. 

Sound too good to be true, but entire RU telegram is screaming about it like crazy, so...
At least some advances, namely Zolota Balka, and now Kreschenivka are confirmed. I read that UA might've struck in the moment when elements of 98th VDV division were being rotated.

 

[billbindc]

1 minute ago, Huba said:

Sound too good to be true, but entire RU telegram is screaming about it like crazy, so...
At least some advances, namely Zolota Balka, and now Kreschenivka are confirmed. I read that UA might've struck in the moment when elements of 98th VDV division were being rotated.

 

Sure...but they have been a bit panicked of late and there might be an interest from some in provoking the Kremlin into action. If it's true, I'll be ecstatic but I'll wait and see if it proves out.

[TheVulture]

12 minutes ago, billbindc said:

I'm a bit skeptical. It's a limited space with some of the most professional Russian units. I'll be very surprised if there's open field running on this front. 

Yeah, that's my worry too. In terms of being a coherent military force, the Russians in the Kherson direction seem to have generally shown the most competence. They're not going to be a push over.

[sburke]

1 minute ago, TheVulture said:

Yeah, that's my worry too. In terms of being a coherent military force, the Russians in the Kherson direction seem to have generally shown the most competence. They're not going to be a push over.

best to not get carried away with limited info, but kherson forces have got to be aware that there isn't anyone coming to help if things go bad and with all the stuff the Nats are saying on telegram morale has got to have taken a severe hit.

[Probus]

Anyone have a link to an updated map of the advance today?