How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[LongLeftFlank]

8 hours ago, Grigb said:

Puck me continues - unverified claim: UKR reached Raihorodok (center of the map)

Also, allegedly these are not light mobile forces but the main force. Looks like assault on Svatove in couple of days...

Yup.  Our revels now are ended.

1.  Decapitation, or near as dammit....

Thread shows how all the targets were selected. This is an *urban area*, and well behind enemy lines. Just amazing C4ISR!

I am the eye in the sky, looking at you....

2.  French media is chuckling about General 'Lapin', Russia's fearsome 'Killer Rabbit.'

...There's a double entendre around lapin:  cuckold / complaisant / clueless / feckless, etc., but I'll leave that to an actual Frenchman to explain.

3.  Looks like some TikTok fedayeen finally ran across some traffic lights that shot back...

Run through the jungle....

4.  Good old American snark

 

Edited October 2, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[billbindc]

Of interest (read full thread): 

I think the premise of this thread is pretty solid. Putin, amidst miscalculating everything else, went to the CTSO expecting to hear about how China was going to help him. Instead, he realized they saw him as an anvil to be cut loose. He panicked and escalated. That was also the week that CTSO states started fighting each other and began the process of throwing off Russian treaty entanglements. It's absolutely logical this would have sent him into a tailspin. So...the long war he thought he could win with China's help now must be wrapped up before the Russian public  has had enough and/or before Ukraine takes it all back. The nuclear threats...and hesitation to use them in fear of China's reaction...all make sense. 

Interview at Deutsch Well here: https://www.dw.com/en/former-adviser-sees-influence-by-chinese-president-xi-jinping-in-putins-recent-decisions/a-63217909

 

Edited October 2, 2022 by billbindc

[danfrodo]

1 hour ago, LongLeftFlank said:

Looks like others have noticed the half-assed nature of Russian defences in this war.

 

I think back to 'Suvorov' (Razun) rhapsodizing about how each Soviet soldier's most important weapon was a little green spade, or the +1 modifier the Squad Leader Russians got to entrenchment attempts.

Nope, sometime in the 1960s the Russian soldier became wedded to his BTR or BMP and decided that was all the entrenchment he needed. To hell with digging or wiring in, or perimeter patrolling, or infiltration.  Cuts into the sergeant's drinking time.  Leave the mining to the pioneers. Even the mujahideen noticed in Afghanistan how the Russians just wouldn't come away from their vehicles.

....And seriously, if there's anything all those mobiks ought to be good for, it's digging holes. Except for all those over-40 guys with bad backs and shot knees.

 

A symptom of a corrupt, incompetent military organization (bad training, leadership, gear, situational understanding) but I bet also due to the huge losses in officers.  I bet there's no one visiting the frontline and making sure it looks like it's supposed to.   So many Lt Col, Majors etc, but even more captains & LTs.  Who's left to make things go right?  Especially w ill-trained and drunk soldiers. 

[LongLeftFlank]

3 minutes ago, danfrodo said:

A symptom of a corrupt, incompetent military organization (bad training, leadership, gear, situational understanding) but I bet also due to the huge losses in officers.  I bet there's no one visiting the frontline and making sure it looks like it's supposed to.   So many Lt Col, Majors etc, but even more captains & LTs.  Who's left to make things go right?  Especially w ill-trained and drunk soldiers. 

Exactly.

Bottom line:  it ain't their motherland, no matter how much the keyboard warriors say it is.  So why the hell should they dig? 

If it turns out the 'hohols' have you zeroed (again), you run the hell away.

[dan/california]

7 minutes ago, billbindc said:

Of interest (read full thread): 

I think the premise of this thread is pretty solid. Putin, amidst miscalculating everything else, went to the CTSO expecting to hear about how China was going to help him. Instead, he realized they saw him as an anvil to be cut loose. He panicked and escalated. That was also the week that CTSO states started fighting each other and began the process of throwing off Russian treaty entanglements. It's absolutely logical this would have sent him into a tailspin. So...the long war he thought he could win with China's help now must be wrapped up before the Russian public  has had enough and/or before Ukraine takes it all back. The nuclear threats...and hesitation to use them in fear of China's reaction...all make sense. 

Interview at Deutsch Well here: https://www.dw.com/en/former-adviser-sees-influence-by-chinese-president-xi-jinping-in-putins-recent-decisions/a-63217909

 

So after the Russians around Lyman got the 21st century equivalent of trying too rout, and being ridden down by calvary what is next? There have probably been the best part of 2000 Russian KIA in the last 24 hours, note I did not say casualties. If he commits the mobiks in numbers that would make any difference the next rout could see multiples of that, or mass surrenders. We could easily wake up tomorrow with the Kherson pocket reduced by a third. His military option space, if my may attempt channel The_Capt, is dwindling towards none. Or maybe too retreating to Crimea while he might be able to hold it, or not even managing that. So what if anything will get him to quit?or convince someone to shoot him? Or are we back to that big bright flash discussion? If Beijing offered him a comfortable asylum would he take it?

[LongLeftFlank]

1 minute ago, dan/california said:

If Beijing offered him a comfortable asylum would he take it?

I was just thinking about that.  Great Helmsman Xi could probably use a hundred billion in USD denominated overseas assets right now, although only a fraction of that would likely be practically recoverable.

[billbindc]

Just now, dan/california said:

So after the Russians around Lyman got the 21st century equivalent of trying too rout, and being ridden down by calvary what is next? There have probably been the best part of 2000 Russian KIA in the last 24 hours, note I did not say casualties. If he commits the mobiks in numbers that would make any difference the next rout could see multiples of that, or mass surrenders. We could easily wake up tomorrow with the Kherson pocket reduced by a third. His military option space, if my may attempt channel The_Capt, is dwindling towards none. Or maybe too retreating to Crimea while he might be able to hold it, or not even managing that. So what if anything will get him to quit?or convince someone to shoot him? Or are we back to that big bright flash discussion? If Beijing offered him a comfortable asylum would he take it?

I think China would not offer him anything. Xi wants the war over, preferably with Russia doing ok but that's not at all something he will lift a finger to help happen. And he will be *very* unhappy if there's a nuke dropped. China is far more interwoven into the world than Russia is. It's been a hard couple of years and the last thing he wants is something that will crush global trade, start a world war, etc.

So where are we? I honestly don't know. Putin's trying to eke out some sort of win by threatening going nuclear. He imagines that the US will put pressure on Ukraine to come to the table to stop that from happening. That *will* not ever happen while Biden is in the WH and with sanctions really starting to bite, Putin doesn't have until 2025. There are going to a be a series of possible triggering events. Kherson is likely starting to come apart as speak. Ukraine will continue to clear out Kharkiv and move further into Luhansk. The Russian nationalists and Kadyrov (*not* the same thing) are going to keep agitating. Public opinion in Russia will continue to fall. Any one or combination of those events could lead to a nuke being dropped. Your guess is as good as mine.

[Offshoot]

1 hour ago, LongLeftFlank said:

3.  Looks like some TikTok fedayeen finally ran across some traffic lights that shot back...

Nah, that's just Ukraine's new 'cross now' sound.

These five fellows seem to be taking on the entirety of Kyiv's traffic control system by themselves.

[Battlefront.com]

I've managed to check in a few times today to check up on progress.  Things are going well indeed!

Just a day or two people were wondering if Kherson had been switched into a fixing operation in order to free up Ukrainian resources to keep pushing into Kharkiv.  Now we're getting word of a significant push from the north.

Is this just a coincidence, or did Ukraine deliberately take their foot off the gas peddle in Kherson just long enough to get Russia to commit resources to Kharkiv, then put their foot down again in Kherson?

Normally I believe coincidence explains more than deliberate clever action, but I've inversed that with Ukraine.  They have been playing Russia like a fiddle., as the saying goes.  Ukraine seems to not only be inside Russia's decision cycles, but they also seem to anticipate Russia's actions well enough to tailor their actions to maximize chaos within Russian commands.

Steve

[Elmar Bijlsma]

37 minutes ago, Offshoot said:

Nah, that's just Ukraine's new 'cross now' sound.

These five fellows seem to be taking on the entirety of Kyiv's traffic control system by themselves.

Is it me, or does a lot of the sound in the video of our favourite TikTok warriors sound like it was lifted from Call of Duty or somesuch?

No way was that a phone or Go Pro picking up actual combat sounds.

[FancyCat]

I was wondering if Lyman falling before the annexation was important for Ukraine to spoil Putin's speech, I'm quite happy to see it seems to have made them angrier. Also looks quite bad, a annexation and then a defeat, sows a lot of doubt.

China, no doubt will be calculating whether to pressure Russia more, I think if it looks to become stalemate, they won't pressure, but as long as Ukraine proceeds, they will do their best to keep Putin from pulling the nuclear option.

[Battlefront.com]

While driving around today I had a think about the Izyum and Lyman situations in terms of traditional pocket battles.  I think this says a about how utterly terrible the entire Russian military system is, from squad level right on up to Putin.  Here's what I mean...

The German Wehrmacht from 1942-1944 increasingly found itself facing situations where large units were cut off and/or fully encircled.  If you look at how the Germans responded you'll likely see more successful escapes than outright defeats (gut feeling, I've not done some sort of statistical analysis).  For sure those escapes often had huge losses of men and equipment, but few resulted in wholesale death/surrender.  Why?  Here are some thoughts:

• military professionalism
• quality leadership at all levels
• flexible command structures and experience with improvising
• a belief in shared sacrifice
• genuine concern for their fellow soldiers

When a large force was cut off, the Germans organized an all around defense with whatever forces were available.  Command structures were modified, as needed, to ensure a unified command of the forces within.  Likewise, a linkup force was designated to breakthrough and that one was under its own uniformed command with, as much as possible, coordination between the command breaking out and the one trying to link up.

The forces trapped in the pocket understood that their best hope of getting out alive was to act together.  The cut off forces would task reorganize in order to offer the whole of the group the best chance of survival.  Armored vehicles, artillery, heavy weapons, supplies, and everything else were put together to form groups within that had specific responsibilities, such as breaking through, counter attacking breaches of the lines, etc.  Recon would be conducted within the pocket to identify potential escape routes and to assess what would be needed to exploit them.

Many of the pocket battles went very poorly for the Germans, but it took a lot to break one apart.  When that did happen the forces would retask themselves to suit conditions.  However, the idea was to keep the units as large as possible so that they could do achieve more than they could dispersed.  Only in the last phase of a defeated pocket would forces break down to sub-platoon sized groups.

Compare this to the Russians.  Everything I just said above is the exact opposite of how the Russians handle this situation.  They fight in their positions until they realize that they're cut off or perhaps just before.  The units seem to quicikly fragment into fairly small, disorganized groups.  It is every man for himself.

There's all kinds of reasons Russians don't seem to handle getting surrounded or cut off very well, but I'd say the most important factor is their inherently bad command and control.  If you don't have quality NCOs and junior officers there is no hope of keeping units together and fighting in any sort of coordinated fashion.  And that is the exact opposite of what gets forces out of pockets.

Steve

[billbindc]

26 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

I've managed to check in a few times today to check up on progress.  Things are going well indeed!

Just a day or two people were wondering if Kherson had been switched into a fixing operation in order to free up Ukrainian resources to keep pushing into Kharkiv.  Now we're getting word of a significant push from the north.

Is this just a coincidence, or did Ukraine deliberately take their foot off the gas peddle in Kherson just long enough to get Russia to commit resources to Kharkiv, then put their foot down again in Kherson?

Normally I believe coincidence explains more than deliberate clever action, but I've inversed that with Ukraine.  They have been playing Russia like a fiddle., as the saying goes.  Ukraine seems to not only be inside Russia's decision cycles, but they also seem to anticipate Russia's actions well enough to tailor their actions to maximize chaos within Russian commands.

Steve

This is what it looks like it when you get one boxer overmatched by another. The less of the two fighters might know that that the jab is setting up the cross but he's got to commit to defending the jab or it could knock him out.

Clearly Ukraine over-flexed in Kherson in order to pull Russian reinforcements out of other regions. Russia responded and had to because regardless of whether or not they thought it might be a fake, their forces were so stressed they might already be swimming if they had not. And of course, once that happened, Ukraine was able to push against Lyman, the Kharkiv region, etc. Now Kyiv can simply alternate and let the Russians shuttle ever less capable forces around exterior lines in a fruitless effort to shore things up. And under the gimlet eye of NATO ISR that rules out any chance of maskirovka.

[FancyCat]

 

 

[Kinophile]

2 hours ago, dan/california said:

So after the Russians around Lyman got the 21st century equivalent of trying too rout, and being ridden down by calvary what is next? There have probably been the best part of 2000 Russian KIA in the last 24 hours, note I did not say casualties. If he commits the mobiks in numbers that would make any difference the next rout could see multiples of that, or mass surrenders. We could easily wake up tomorrow with the Kherson pocket reduced by a third. His military option space, if my may attempt channel The_Capt, is dwindling towards none. Or maybe too retreating to Crimea while he might be able to hold it, or not even managing that. So what if anything will get him to quit?or convince someone to shoot him? Or are we back to that big bright flash discussion? If Beijing offered him a comfortable asylum would he take it?

Hold yer horses mate. Let's wait for some better data... 

[acrashb]

11 hours ago, billbindc said:

Freedman extremely on point this morning: 

[...]
Polling suggests that support for the war has fallen sharply. The latest shows that from 48% of Russians wanting the war to continue in August now only 29% are detrmined about pressing on. Another 15% are lukewarm and 48% want peace.

That is the most important part; once momentum builds in the right direction the change of opinion is no longer linear in time and will explode exponentially. The loss of Lyman counters / neutralizes the Putin / Russian narrative they attempted through annexation and will accelerate the reduction in war support.  Near-term future losses - Kherson pocket? - will, I think, seal the deal.

Then it's rebellion in multiple layers of Russian society.

9 hours ago, Zeleban said:

 

Ritter: multi-time sex offender and now sock puppet / asset for Russia.

1 hour ago, dan/california said:

 If Beijing offered him a comfortable asylum would he take it?

"These leaders [Putin's position where he is an authoritarian but not absolute leader], Goemans found, would be tempted to “gamble for resurrection,” to continue prosecuting the war, often at greater and greater intensity, because anything short of victory could mean their own exile or death."
 

A comfortable exile in China is the best possible outcome now, as so many other doors have been closed.  Based on Putin's ego and Goemans' research, I don't think he'll take it.

So things will grind on.

[Kinophile]

42 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

While driving around today I had a think about the Izyum and Lyman situations in terms of traditional pocket battles.  I think this says a about how utterly terrible the entire Russian military system is, from squad level right on up to Putin.  Here's what I mean...

The German Wehrmacht from 1942-1944 increasingly found itself facing situations where large units were cut off and/or fully encircled.  If you look at how the Germans responded you'll likely see more successful escapes than outright defeats (gut feeling, I've not done some sort of statistical analysis).  For sure those escapes often had huge losses of men and equipment, but few resulted in wholesale death/surrender.  Why?  Here are some thoughts:

• military professionalism
• quality leadership at all levels
• flexible command structures and experience with improvising
• a belief in shared sacrifice
• genuine concern for their fellow soldiers

When a large force was cut off, the Germans organized an all around defense with whatever forces were available.  Command structures were modified, as needed, to ensure a unified command of the forces within.  Likewise, a linkup force was designated to breakthrough and that one was under its own uniformed command with, as much as possible, coordination between the command breaking out and the one trying to link up.

The forces trapped in the pocket understood that their best hope of getting out alive was to act together.  The cut off forces would task reorganize in order to offer the whole of the group the best chance of survival.  Armored vehicles, artillery, heavy weapons, supplies, and everything else were put together to form groups within that had specific responsibilities, such as breaking through, counter attacking breaches of the lines, etc.  Recon would be conducted within the pocket to identify potential escape routes and to assess what would be needed to exploit them.

Many of the pocket battles went very poorly for the Germans, but it took a lot to break one apart.  When that did happen the forces would retask themselves to suit conditions.  However, the idea was to keep the units as large as possible so that they could do achieve more than they could dispersed.  Only in the last phase of a defeated pocket would forces break down to sub-platoon sized groups.

Compare this to the Russians.  Everything I just said above is the exact opposite of how the Russians handle this situation.  They fight in their positions until they realize that they're cut off or perhaps just before.  The units seem to quicikly fragment into fairly small, disorganized groups.  It is every man for himself.

There's all kinds of reasons Russians don't seem to handle getting surrounded or cut off very well, but I'd say the most important factor is their inherently bad command and control.  If you don't have quality NCOs and junior officers there is no hope of keeping units together and fighting in any sort of coordinated fashion.  And that is the exact opposite of what gets forces out of pockets.

Steve

What you describe ref Wehrmacht seems to exactly how UKR extricated units near popasna and later south of Lysychanks. 

They lost equipment Esp in latter, but the retreating units remained reasonably coherent and certainly above platoon size (Co. and Batt. size I believe) even under heavy interdiction. 

[LongLeftFlank]

For the future scenario design files.

 

Edited October 2, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[Kinophile]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

 

Just a day or two people were wondering if Kherson had been switched into a fixing operation in order to free up Ukrainian resources to keep pushing into Kharkiv.  Now we're getting word of a significant push from the north.

Is this just a coincidence, or did Ukraine deliberately take their foot off the gas peddle in Kherson just long enough to get Russia to commit resources to Kharkiv, then put their foot down again in Kherson?

Normally I believe coincidence explains more than deliberate clever action, but I've inversed that with Ukraine.  They have been playing Russia like a fiddle., as the saying goes.  Ukraine seems to not only be inside Russia's decision cycles, but they also seem to anticipate Russia's actions well enough to tailor their actions to maximize chaos within Russian commands.

Steve

Nope,  it's the (now classic)  UA left-right. 

Hit one place,  get it into danger and force RUS commitment,  then hit from a different direction. 

They do this constantly at a tactical and operational level.  

Im waiting to see what they do at a strategic level.. 

Personally,  in tactical wargaming,  strategy games and board games,  I always try for a more extreme, right-angle plan - hit frontal then hit 90 degs from the main attacks axis. Rarely fails. Very hard to defend. 

[LongLeftFlank]

1.  Good question.

2.  What air defense doing? Just wait and see, b*txhez....

(My bet is behind the Dnipro front, waiting for RU jets from Millerovo)

Edited October 2, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[CAZmaj]

Putin: "The End of Western Hegemony is INEVITABLE"
The quiet part out loud.
Konstantin Kisin
This is a reproduction of my live Twitter summary/translation of Vladimir Putin's speech:


I wish every single person in the West would listen to Putin's speech. Obviously, that won't happen so let me summarize as a professional translator for 10+ years. He states, as he has done from the outset, what his intentions and complaints are in the plainest terms possible.
Setting aside his brief comments on the recent "referendums", he spends most of his speech discussing the West. His primary complaint isn't NATO expansion, which gets only a cursory mention. The West is greedy and seeks to enslave and colonize other nations, like Russia.
The West uses the power of finance and technology to enforce its will on other nations. To collect what he calls the "hegemon's tax". To this end the West destabilizes countries, creates terrorist enclaves and most of all seeks to deprive other countries of sovereignty.
It is this "avarice" and desire to preserve its power that is the reason for the "hybrid war" the collective West is "waging on Russia". They want us to be a "colony". They do not want us to be free, they want Russians to be a mob of soulless slaves - direct quote.
The rules-based order the West goes on about is "nonsense". Who made these rules? Who agreed to them? Russia is an ancient country and civilization and we will not play by these "rigged" rules. The West has no moral authority to challenge the referendums because it has violated the borders of other countries. Western elites are "totalitarian, despotic and apartheidist" - direct quote. They are racist against Russia and other countries and nations. "Russophobia is racism". They discriminate by calling themselves the "civilized world".
They colonized, started the global slave trade, genocide native Americans, pillaged India and Africa, forced China to buy opium through war. We, on the other hand, are proud that we "led" the anti-colonial movement that helped countries develop to reduce poverty and inequality.
They are Russophobe (they hate us) because we didn't allow our country to be pillaged by creating a strong CENTRALISED (emphasis his) state based on Christianity, Islam, Judaism and Buddhism. They have been trying to destabilize our country since the 17thcentury in the Times of Trouble.

Eventually, they managed to "get their hands on our riches" at the end of the 20th century. They called us friends and partners while pumping out trillions of dollars (his ironic game is strong today).
We remember this. We didn't forget. The West claims to bring freedom and democracy to other countries but it's the exact opposite of the truth. The unipolar world is anti-democratic by its very nature. It is a lie. They used nuclear weapons, creating a precedent. They flattened German cities without "any military need to do so". There was no need for this except to scare us and the rest of the world. Korea, Vietnam. To this day they "occupy" Japan, South Korea and Germany and other countries while cynically calling them "allies".
The West has surveillance over the leaders of these nations who "swallow these insults like the slaves they are".
He then talks about bioweapon research (haven't heard about them for a while) and human experiments "including in Ukraine".
The US rules the world by the power of the fi st. Any country which seeks to challenge Western hegemony becomes an enemy. Their neocolonialism is cloaked in lies like "containment" of Russia, China and Iran. The concept of truth has been destroyed with fakes and extreme propaganda (irony game still strong).
You cannot feed your people with printed dollars and social media. You need food and energy. But Western elites have no desire to find a solution to the food and energy crises*they* (emphasis his) created.
They solved the problems at the start of 20c with WW1 and the US established dominance of the world via the dollar as a result of WW2. In the 80s they had another crisis they solved by "plundering our country". Now they want to solve their problems by "breaking Russia".
Russia "understands its responsibility to the international community" and will "do everything to cool the heads of these neocolonialism who are destined to fail".
They're crazy. I want to speak to all Russian citizens; do we want to replace mum and dad with parent 1 and 2?
They invented genders and claim you can "transition". Do we want this for our children?
We have a different vision.
They have abandoned religion and embraced Satanism - direct quote.
The world is going through a revolutionary transformation. A multipolar world offers nations freedom to develop as they wish and they make up the majority of the world.
We have many like-minded friends in Western countries. We see and appreciate their support. They are forming liberation, anti-colonial movements as we speak - direct quote. These will only grow.
We are fighting for a fair world for our country. The idea of exceptionalism is criminal and we must turn this shameful page. The breaking of the West's hegemony is INEVITABLE (emphasis his).
There is no going back. We are fighting for our "great (as in big), historic Russia". Our values are (irony game crescendo): love of our fellow man, compassion and mercy.
Truth is with us; Russia is with us.

(That's the end of the speech)


As I said from day 1, the purpose of what Putin is doing in Ukraine is to throw the West off its pedestal. This isn't about NATO or Ukraine; this is the big play to replace the current world order.
P.S.
Reaction from one of the attendees:
"We'll beat them all, we'll kill them all, we'll plunder all their stuff. It's going to be what we love to do!”

 

[Kinophile]

10 hours ago, sburke said:

suckers.  Haven't they noticed the excuses Russia has to not pay up.

Exactly.  As Furiousa says in Mad Max, when Max wants to wait and surrender to Immortan Joe:

"You're relying on the gratitude of a very bad man. "

 

[dan/california]

25 minutes ago, Kinophile said:

Hold yer horses mate. Let's wait for some better data... 

Would it make any difference at all if the numbers come in at 900 KIA, and 600 badly wounded prisoners? Maybe Ukraines second wave was able to spare the personnel for a major triage and and casualty evacuation operation? The 155  and mortars on the road out were so bad the the Russians abandoned their vehicles and tried to use the woods, both side had mined those woods. The Russians appear to have been driven been through their own minefields, then the Ukrainians minefields, then into Ukrainian units that killed them until they were out of ammo and literally sick of it. 

[LongLeftFlank]

1 hour ago, dan/california said:

Would it make any difference at all if the numbers come in at 900 KIA, and 600 badly wounded prisoners? Maybe Ukraines second wave was able to spare the personnel for a major triage and and casualty evacuation operation? The 155  and mortars on the road out were so bad the the Russians abandoned their vehicles and tried to use the woods, both side had mined those woods. The Russians appear to have been driven been through their own minefields, then the Ukrainians minefields, then into Ukrainian units that killed them until they were out of ammo and literally sick of it. 

Source?  I got a dressing down from @The_Capt a while back when I dared suggest UA ought to use AP mines, since the RU clearly wasn't observing the treaty (to be fair, they never signed).

BTW, I listened to the first 8 minutes of the McGregor podcast with Napolitano, which was about all I could take.  The Colonel is... sane acting and appearing.  He also seems tired.

Evidently 80% of the Russian army is still in Russia, thanks to the forbearance of dear, kind Mr. Putin.  No, he didn't want to cause excessive local hardship by having too many Russian soldiers come in in February.  Against the advice of his own general staff.

But after Ukronazis murderously shelled thousands of freedom loving future Russian referendum voters queued in front of polling stations, Good Saint Vlad reluctantly changed his mind.  The gloves are off now. Oh, and all those middle aged drunken mobiks are merely relieving the 'Laaarge Number of Combat Ready Professional Soldiers In The Greater Niagara Falls Area' that will now be free to redeploy to Ukraine.

...Yeah, that's 8 minutes I will never have back again. But I reckoned I'd give him a listen, once, in case there was something to learn. So you don't have to (You're welcome). Nope.

Edited October 2, 2022 by LongLeftFlank

[CAZmaj]

1 hour ago, CAZmaj said:

Putin: "The End of Western Hegemony is INEVITABLE"
The quiet part out loud.
Konstantin Kisin
This is a reproduction of my live Twitter summary/translation of Vladimir Putin's speech:


I wish every single person in the West would listen to Putin's speech. Obviously, that won't happen so let me summarize as a professional translator for 10+ years. He states, as he has done from the outset, what his intentions and complaints are in the plainest terms possible.
Setting aside his brief comments on the recent "referendums", he spends most of his speech discussing the West. His primary complaint isn't NATO expansion, which gets only a cursory mention. The West is greedy and seeks to enslave and colonize other nations, like Russia.
The West uses the power of finance and technology to enforce its will on other nations. To collect what he calls the "hegemon's tax". To this end the West destabilizes countries, creates terrorist enclaves and most of all seeks to deprive other countries of sovereignty.
It is this "avarice" and desire to preserve its power that is the reason for the "hybrid war" the collective West is "waging on Russia". They want us to be a "colony". They do not want us to be free, they want Russians to be a mob of soulless slaves - direct quote.
The rules-based order the West goes on about is "nonsense". Who made these rules? Who agreed to them? Russia is an ancient country and civilization and we will not play by these "rigged" rules. The West has no moral authority to challenge the referendums because it has violated the borders of other countries. Western elites are "totalitarian, despotic and apartheidist" - direct quote. They are racist against Russia and other countries and nations. "Russophobia is racism". They discriminate by calling themselves the "civilized world".
They colonized, started the global slave trade, genocide native Americans, pillaged India and Africa, forced China to buy opium through war. We, on the other hand, are proud that we "led" the anti-colonial movement that helped countries develop to reduce poverty and inequality.
They are Russophobe (they hate us) because we didn't allow our country to be pillaged by creating a strong CENTRALISED (emphasis his) state based on Christianity, Islam, Judaism and Buddhism. They have been trying to destabilize our country since the 17thcentury in the Times of Trouble.

Eventually, they managed to "get their hands on our riches" at the end of the 20th century. They called us friends and partners while pumping out trillions of dollars (his ironic game is strong today).
We remember this. We didn't forget. The West claims to bring freedom and democracy to other countries but it's the exact opposite of the truth. The unipolar world is anti-democratic by its very nature. It is a lie. They used nuclear weapons, creating a precedent. They flattened German cities without "any military need to do so". There was no need for this except to scare us and the rest of the world. Korea, Vietnam. To this day they "occupy" Japan, South Korea and Germany and other countries while cynically calling them "allies".
The West has surveillance over the leaders of these nations who "swallow these insults like the slaves they are".
He then talks about bioweapon research (haven't heard about them for a while) and human experiments "including in Ukraine".
The US rules the world by the power of the fi st. Any country which seeks to challenge Western hegemony becomes an enemy. Their neocolonialism is cloaked in lies like "containment" of Russia, China and Iran. The concept of truth has been destroyed with fakes and extreme propaganda (irony game still strong).
You cannot feed your people with printed dollars and social media. You need food and energy. But Western elites have no desire to find a solution to the food and energy crises*they* (emphasis his) created.
They solved the problems at the start of 20c with WW1 and the US established dominance of the world via the dollar as a result of WW2. In the 80s they had another crisis they solved by "plundering our country". Now they want to solve their problems by "breaking Russia".
Russia "understands its responsibility to the international community" and will "do everything to cool the heads of these neocolonialism who are destined to fail".
They're crazy. I want to speak to all Russian citizens; do we want to replace mum and dad with parent 1 and 2?
They invented genders and claim you can "transition". Do we want this for our children?
We have a different vision.
They have abandoned religion and embraced Satanism - direct quote.
The world is going through a revolutionary transformation. A multipolar world offers nations freedom to develop as they wish and they make up the majority of the world.
We have many like-minded friends in Western countries. We see and appreciate their support. They are forming liberation, anti-colonial movements as we speak - direct quote. These will only grow.
We are fighting for a fair world for our country. The idea of exceptionalism is criminal and we must turn this shameful page. The breaking of the West's hegemony is INEVITABLE (emphasis his).
There is no going back. We are fighting for our "great (as in big), historic Russia". Our values are (irony game crescendo): love of our fellow man, compassion and mercy.
Truth is with us; Russia is with us.

(That's the end of the speech)


As I said from day 1, the purpose of what Putin is doing in Ukraine is to throw the West off its pedestal. This isn't about NATO or Ukraine; this is the big play to replace the current world order.
P.S.
Reaction from one of the attendees:
"We'll beat them all, we'll kill them all, we'll plunder all their stuff. It's going to be what we love to do!”

 

 

 

Edited October 2, 2022 by CAZmaj