How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[FancyCat]

 

6 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

Hmmm, why should Russia blow up their own gas lines. They indeed lose their last card of changing the minds of EU. And destroying decades of prosperous collaboration with Germany. And that thank you from Poland official... We underestimate how ruthless US is as well when they are after their interests. Beyond Russia, target is Germany I think for not obeying the masters orders and being reluctant to be involved in this war. Now they don't have other choice. And we are here discussing the high ethics of the war with lord of the rings metaphors. 

The lines that go thru Poland and Ukraine remain, and still flow with gas mind you. 

2 minutes ago, Butschi said:

You misunderstood what I said (or I phrased it confusingly). If Russia did it and the only pipelines left go through Ukraine, Russia possibly has a lever with which to drive a wedge between Ukraine and EU.

How so? 

[Letter from Prague]

Russia is the only actor in all this who is continuously trying to make the situation more fuzzy, uncertain and chaotic. It is their modus operandi to project uncertainty and chaos on political level. They are also assholes that enjoy doing things to show they can get away with them.

Recently, they were

• running fake referendums to threaten nukes,
• shelling largest nuclear power plant
• launching missiles at grain storage right after saying they wont
• launching missiles at dams and power plants
• kidnapping children
• murdering refugees (see videos above)
• setting up "humanitarian corridors" then mining and shelling them

Not so recently, they murdered people with chemical weapons in UK, sabotaged a lot of stuff all over EU and shot down airliner to show they can get away with it.

Of course they blew up their own pipeline. While laughing about "now useful idiots all over the world will talk about how USA did it".

[billbindc]

3 minutes ago, Butschi said:

You misunderstood what I said (or I phrased it confusingly). If Russia did it and the only pipelines left go through Ukraine, Russia possibly has a lever with which to drive a wedge between Ukraine and EU.

This. 

Putin is looking for escalations that might drive a wedge into NATO that do not involve nuclear weapons. Why? Because it's been made very clear to him by everyone from Modi, to Xi to Kim Jong Un that the world is against him if he drops a nuke. So, he's digging around in the drawer for alternatives. The play here is to put some sort of energy onus on Poland and Ukraine vis a vis the rest of Europe, to show that other pipelines can be destroyed too, and to give the world something to think about other than the collapse of his military jugger-naught.

He's also putting a carrot out of reach for the Gazprom clique, showing will, etc. That the move underscores his unreasonableness and untouchability to Germany seems not to have fit into his calculations.

[Zeleban]

12 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

We underestimate how ruthless US is as well when they are after their interests. Beyond Russia, target is Germany I think for not obeying the masters orders and being reluctant to be involved in this war. Now they don't have other choice. And we are here discussing the high ethics of the war with lord of the rings metaphors. 

In your posts, the influence of Russian propaganda is noticeable. Obviously, frequent exposure to pro-Russian resources does not benefit the objectivity of judgments

[Huba]

Here's a summary of Polish foreign minister interview about recent events:

- it was Russia, doh!

- their goal is intimidation and taking attention from the referenda/ current events in Ukraine

- he sees no serious war fatigue symptoms in UE, there's no talk about pressuring UA to negotiate

 

Edited September 28, 2022 by Huba

[Bulletpoint]

13 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

You mean Russia? The U.S gets way more punishment in rising fuel costs worldwide fueling inflation than any benefit to increasing dependence on U.S LNG.

I didn't mean the US. If the US blew up the pipes, I think it would not have much to do with money, but sending a signal to Europe that there's no way back now.

Instead, I thought it could be a private actor actually. There's a lot of money to be made in investing in gas, if you know the price will go up.

But of course it's just speculation.

[FancyCat]

And as a twitter poster put it, Russia has been shooting itself in the gut all year long, if you still think Russia obviously wouldn’t want to destroy such a card like NS 1 and 2, I need only point out Russia decided to launch a full scale invasion of Ukraine, so clearly their decision making center is screwed up to say the least. Or why reinforce Kherson. Why not mobilize earlier. Why say in full view of the world your goal is to annex Ukraine to return wayward Russians to the fold. And etc. 

[panzermartin]

4 minutes ago, Zeleban said:

In your posts, the influence of Russian propaganda is noticeable. Obviously, frequent exposure to pro-Russian resources does not benefit the objectivity of judgments

I read everything, from ISW to pro UKR Twitter, this forum and russian sources. 

Why US is never to be blamed, they are very much benefiting from all this,while Germany, Europe and Russia are committing suicide. Is this russian propaganda? 

[akd]

Just now, panzermartin said:

Why US is never to be blamed, they are very much benefiting from all this,while Germany, Europe and Russia are committing suicide. Is this russian propaganda? 

Yes.

[Huba]

1 minute ago, panzermartin said:

I read everything, from ISW to pro UKR Twitter, this forum and russian sources. 

Why US is never to be blamed, they are very much benefiting from all this,while Germany, Europe and Russia are committing suicide. Is this russian propaganda? 

Poland signed the LNG contract with Emirates, not US, perhaps it is these pesky Arabs? Of for the love of gawd...

Edited September 28, 2022 by Huba

[billbindc]

Mark Galeotti, with a sober take:

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/the-nord-stream-blasts-are-putin-s-warning-shot-to-the-west

[FancyCat]

9 minutes ago, billbindc said:

This. 

Putin is looking for escalations that might drive a wedge into NATO that do not involve nuclear weapons. Why? Because it's been made very clear to him by everyone from Modi, to Xi to Kim Jong Un that the world is against him if he drops a nuke. So, he's digging around in the drawer for alternatives. The play here is to put some sort of energy onus on Poland and Ukraine vis a vis the rest of Europe, to show that other pipelines can be destroyed too, and to give the world something to think about other than the collapse of his military jugger-naught.

He's also putting a carrot out of reach for the Gazprom clique, showing will, etc. That the move underscores his unreasonableness and untouchability to Germany seems not to have fit into his calculations.

I’m not aware of any Polish or Ukrainian attempts to stop the flow of gas via the physical restriction thru the pipeline. Unless Russia is just betting on breaking the alliance via a very transparent attempt and expecting the West to split (which I wouldn’t be surprised Russia thinks would work)(considering their barely set up votes for annexation for example) this will fall on its face as well.   

[Butschi]

23 minutes ago, Letter from Prague said:

Of course they blew up their own pipeline. While laughing about "now useful idiots all over the world will talk about how USA did it".

True but that works because we reflexively lay the blame on Russia before having solid evidence. Then the useful idiots can go and say: "Look, once again there is no evidence, but the West blames Russia. Why would Russia destroy their own pipeline? Look the USA profit because now they can sell their LNG even better!" If, instead we would wait a little longer until we have evidence (and not "the CIA told us they know"), that would work much less well.

EDIT: by useful idiots I am not referring to those here who have rightly point out that there are indeed also others who profit.

Edited September 28, 2022 by Butschi

[Probus]

10 minutes ago, Bulletpoint said:

Instead, I thought it could be a private actor actually. There's a lot of money to be made in investing in gas, if you know the price will go up.

Ah ha! Someone is finally catching on!

I think it was either 007 or Spectre, but I'll have a hard time proving it.  Everyone seems to think it was from Russia with love because, for them,  the world is not enough. 

Edited September 28, 2022 by Probus

[Butschi]

3 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

I’m not aware of any Polish or Ukrainian attempts to stop the flow of gas via the physical restriction thru the pipeline. Unless Russia is just betting on breaking the alliance via a very transparent attempt and expecting the West to split (which I wouldn’t be surprised Russia thinks would work)(considering their barely set up votes for annexation for example) this will fall on its face as well.   

It doesn't matter if it sounds rational to us, it has to fit Kremlin logic.

[billbindc]

4 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

I’m not aware of any Polish or Ukrainian attempts to stop the flow of gas via the physical restriction thru the pipeline. Unless Russia is just betting on breaking the alliance via a very transparent attempt and expecting the West to split (which I wouldn’t be surprised Russia thinks would work)(considering their barely set up votes for annexation for example) this will fall on its face as well.   

To be clear, I'm not saying it's a *good* idea or will work in any way. It's just what they've got at the moment.

[LongLeftFlank]

I skimmed over all the pages of German bashing/remonstration, but here, let me take a gratuitous shot at the Mother Country.

[Zeleban]

12 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

I read everything, from ISW to pro UKR Twitter, this forum and russian sources. 

Why US is never to be blamed, they are very much benefiting from all this,while Germany, Europe and Russia are committing suicide. Is this russian propaganda? 

This is justice. The one who invests more wins more.

[FancyCat]

6 minutes ago, panzermartin said:

I read everything, from ISW to pro UKR Twitter, this forum and russian sources. 

Why US is never to be blamed, they are very much benefiting from all this,while Germany, Europe and Russia are committing suicide. Is this russian propaganda? 

What benefit? Inflation from rising fuel costs would outweigh any benefit from increased U.S market share of LNG (that are maxed out export wise anywhere)

If Russia does not want to commit suicide, all it needs to do is leave Ukraine and I’m sure Europe will be more than happy to buy LNG and sell industry to Russia in like 5 years. I suppose the solution to ensuring Europe and Russia and Germany not commit suicide for U.S gain is probably a division of Ukraine? Ensure Russia gets its proper sphere of influence?

[Butschi]

3 minutes ago, Zeleban said:

This is justice. The one who invests more wins more.

Let's hope Russia doesn't invest more than Ukraine, then...

[Zeleban]

4 minutes ago, Butschi said:

Let's hope Russia doesn't invest more than Ukraine, then...

We put our existence on the line. What could be more expensive?

[Zeleban]

Ukraine also loves big guns, not only Russia

[Letter from Prague]

It was actually me. I did it. The pipeline annoyed me so I broke it.

.....

I mean for all the "why would Russia destroy its own pipeline" this is actually kinda smart. The West is saying no matter what heinous things Russia does, they will walk on eggshells around Russia to make sure they don't upset it too much. They might give some weapons to Ukraine, but not too much, because eggshells.

So far, the Russia attacked civilian infrastructure in Ukraine, and the response was collective shrug - West will do anything but engage. Pressing forward seems like classic mafia move. If someone has the mentality to attack Western infrastructure while saying "we will attack you, but if you strike back, we nuke you, so you have to take it", it is Russia. It's classic bully move and it is what they did to Ukraine with firing across the border since 2014, after all.

We'll see if it works for them.

[Butschi]

5 minutes ago, Zeleban said:

We put our existence on the line. What could be more expensive?

Dunno, in Dollars or Rubles? On a more serious note: I don't believe justice or economy work that way.

Edited September 28, 2022 by Butschi

[FancyCat]

On that note, we can see clearly, Russia’s will to win is not particularly high vs Ukraine considering the lack of mobilization till desperation and then a refusal to accept mobilization by the population. Despite the “threat to Russia’s existence” Ukraine poses supposedly to Russia.