How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[akd]

When Ukraine gets deep in your rear:

 

[billbindc]

 

In terms of capability, this is way beyond what Ukraine could do. Nobody else has the incentive to except in my estimation Russia. Festung Rosskiy Mir in full effect.

[Kraft]

7 minutes ago, Butschi said:

Nobody likes how Scholz is handling this. That doesn't mean there aren't a lot of Germans who are just afraid of WW3. These people are very much in line with what Scholz is doing. 

Also, I'll say it for the umpteenth time: You can rightly criticise that the West as a whole is not willing to send tanks and IFVs. But as long as neither US nor UK nor any other western country with domestic tank development and production is willing to send their stuff it is rather hypocritical to single out Germany.

Modern tanks, sure they are all afraid of Russia(china) stealing technology but I am talking about 60 year old Marder 1 IFVs that are owned by a private company, which has asked dozens of times to supply Ukraine who is willing and able to pay. 

bushmaster, M113 (seems to work fine despite its mature age) etc are more of a comparison than challenger MBT

[sross112]

9 minutes ago, Butschi said:

Yeah, so funny that the energy prises will rise even more so that the poorer people can't afford heating any more. I'm laughing my *ss off.

Just out of curiosity, how will this effect energy prices? Seriously. I thought they were already shut down pretty much without hope of being turned back on anytime soon. To me it would seem that the market would have already adjusted to their loss of supply. Will it cause some panic or something? Were there agreements already or agreements in the making to turn them back on?

Again, these are serious questions and I'm not being sarcastic. Thanks for any insight you can give into this.

[Lethaface]

1 minute ago, sross112 said:

Just out of curiosity, how will this effect energy prices? Seriously. I thought they were already shut down pretty much without hope of being turned back on anytime soon. To me it would seem that the market would have already adjusted to their loss of supply. Will it cause some panic or something? Were there agreements already or agreements in the making to turn them back on?

Again, these are serious questions and I'm not being sarcastic. Thanks for any insight you can give into this.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-09-27/european-gas-prices-rise-amid-outages-at-idled-russian-pipelines

Because of 'the market'.

FWIW if our government doesn't act (which they are planning, but remains to be seen) there will be around 1.000.000 people who can't pay their eletricity bills in our coutry of 17million. Out of these 1m people, 600k don't have a history of payment problems.

Also, if nothing changes good chance that most small bakeries (and similar companies) will go bankrupt if/when they have to renew their energy contract. 

Funny thing is that even 'green electricity' has become 2/3x as expensive. 

 

Edited September 27, 2022 by Lethaface

[The_MonkeyKing]

13 minutes ago, Butschi said:

Also, I'll say it for the umpteenth time: You can rightly criticize that the West as a whole is not willing to send tanks and IFVs. But as long as neither US nor UK nor any other western country with domestic tank development and production is willing to send their stuff it is rather hypocritical to single out Germany.

Criticize US, yes we should. But they are already number one supplier by a mile, in quantity and quality. This is a European war and would be quite something to walk over Europeans in everything. I am sure if EU asked for Bradley and Abrams and helped with the finances US would help.

Leopard 2 is the only European MBT in enough numbers (thousands) and at least some production. Both UK and France have couple hundred of they own and production doesn't exist anymore.

So, Germany is indeed the only one who can provide MBTs (give their own or give export permission for sending to Ukraine).

It would be pretty laughable if UK or France would have to send a battalion of their domestic unicorn tanks to unlock the Leopard hordes.

[Butschi]

1 minute ago, Kraft said:

Modern tanks, sure they are all afraid of Russia(china) stealing technology but I am talking about 60 year old Marder 1 IFVs that are owned by a private company, which has asked dozens of times to supply Ukraine who is willing and able to pay. 

bushmaster, M113 (seems to work fine despite its mature age) etc are more of a comparison than challenger MBT

I won't speculate on the reasons why the respective countries don't send their stuff. It's their decision (and theirs alone, mind you) to decide what to deliver. I just get frustrated with this constant applying of double standards. Where are the cries of "Why doesn't Biden finally send M1s to Ukraine?"?

[keas66]

Just now, Butschi said:

I won't speculate on the reasons why the respective countries don't send their stuff. It's their decision (and theirs alone, mind you) to decide what to deliver. I just get frustrated with this constant applying of double standards. Where are the cries of "Why doesn't Biden finally send M1s to Ukraine?"?

You are  becoming more and more defensive ....

[Lethaface]

1 minute ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

Criticize US, yes we should. But they are already number one supplier by a mile, in quantity and quality. This is a European war and would be quite something to walk over Europeans in everything. I am sure if EU asked for Bradley and Abrams and helped with the finances US would help.

This is a Russian war of aggression against Ukraine. Ukraine does indeed happen to lie in Eastern Europe.

However, the USA has been involved in Ukraine, before and after 2014 more than most European countries so I don't get the point of stating that the EU / Europeans should bear the consequences more than US.

I do agree we should take more leadership in our own matters. But the issue of the EU is that everyone is pointing at Germany and France to do stuff/pull the cart (which is at least semi hypocrite), while nobody even agrees on what. 

 

[panzermartin]

28 minutes ago, Kraft said:

How many billions of Greek debt was written off to not send your country into another crisis caused by its own government spending?

Easy on the blaming game because in a few years you will also be protesting against your new masters that will blame all on your government for corruption and spending too much on the war effort. A friendly advice. 

Italy has sadly elected a neo fascist government and this says something about how bad things are going in Europe now. What will happen of Lepen gets elected finally in France  The end of the dream? I'm all for a united Europe but a lot of things went wrong with the economic strategy and that gave a push to nationalists and fascists to rise again unfortunately. 

 

[keas66]

Just now, Lethaface said:

This is a Russian war of aggression against Ukraine. Ukraine does indeed happen to lie in Eastern Europe.

However, the USA has been involved in Ukraine, before and after 2014 more than most European countries so I don't get the point of stating that the EU / Europeans should bear the consequences more than US.

I do agree we should take more leadership in our own matters. But the issue of the EU is that everyone is pointing at Germany and France to do stuff/pull the cart (which is at least semi hypocrite), while nobody even agrees on what. 

 

Because it is in your best interests ?  - Eastern Europe ... being In Europe  after all  and not attached to continental America

[billbindc]

1 minute ago, Butschi said:

I won't speculate on the reasons why the respective countries don't send their stuff. It's their decision (and theirs alone, mind you) to decide what to deliver. I just get frustrated with this constant applying of double standards. Where are the cries of "Why doesn't Biden finally send M1s to Ukraine?"?

Sorry, but critiquing the US on its provision of supplies is simply *not on*. We've performed relative miracles in this war and without the Biden WH's early and clear eyed understanding of what was coming it would already be over in the worst possible way. I understand Germany's issues and I'm even somewhat sympathetic but no, you don't get to do the above.

[The_MonkeyKing]

2 minutes ago, Butschi said:

I won't speculate on the reasons why the respective countries don't send their stuff. It's their decision (and theirs alone, mind you) to decide what to deliver. I just get frustrated with this constant applying of double standards. Where are the cries of "Why doesn't Biden finally send M1s to Ukraine?"?

Yes, it is Germanys own decision what to send. Everyone just has to face the consequences of their decisions. It is free decision for everyone else on how they react.

Pointed out why the Abrams issue is different case on my above post. This whole war is Europe's mess and especially so German mess.

[Zeleban]

The National Guard captures Russian soldiers. More and more videos with the capture of Russians, it seems that the story of the capture of Liman is coming to an end

[keas66]

Honestly I'm spending more time on Twitter right now following actual  Military activity :

 

 

[Lethaface]

Just now, keas66 said:

Because it is in your best interests ?  - Eastern Europe ... being In Europe  after all  and not attached to continental America

Read again. You answer a question I didn't put forward and project / frame it like I am against EU support for Ukraine, which I'm not.

[Butschi]

10 minutes ago, sross112 said:

Just out of curiosity, how will this effect energy prices? Seriously. I thought they were already shut down pretty much without hope of being turned back on anytime soon. To me it would seem that the market would have already adjusted to their loss of supply. Will it cause some panic or something? Were there agreements already or agreements in the making to turn them back on?

Again, these are serious questions and I'm not being sarcastic. Thanks for any insight you can give into this.

A valid question and I can really only speculate. Maybe it doesn't change anything. Because I don't think anyone really believed we be getting gas through NS1. But markets are usually not overly rational. At the very least it will be an excuse for gas suppliers to increase prices a little more.

[Battlefront.com]

4 minutes ago, Lethaface said:

This is a Russian war of aggression against Ukraine. Ukraine does indeed happen to lie in Eastern Europe.

However, the USA has been involved in Ukraine, before and after 2014 more than most European countries so I don't get the point of stating that the EU / Europeans should bear the consequences more than US.

I do agree we should take more leadership in our own matters. But the issue of the EU is that everyone is pointing at Germany and France to do stuff/pull the cart (which is at least semi hypocrite), while nobody even agrees on what. 

 

Here is a perspective to consider...

The US learned something from the breakup of Yugoslavia... the Europeans will ignore something right on their doorstep, even something equal to the horrors of WW2, right up until the point in which the US can't, then the US comes in and does what Europe should have done long before.  European support will not come close to matching, not to mention exceeding, what the US contributes.

The Europeans will be divided between those who quietly are thankful for US intervention and those who are outright resentful of it.  The US knows this is the European pattern and yet it still comes to the aid of Europe because, pragmatically, it is in the US' best interests to do so.

That's a more moderate view of Europe's dysfunction and their collective reliance on the US to fix their problems.  And yes, Ukraine is Europe's problem because it is on their border, not the US'.  The US has interests there, but there is no rational argument to suggest that the US must be the one to shoulder the majority of the responsibility.  Other than the US can and Europe can't due to years of not taking the Russian threat more seriously (i.e. inadequate defense spending).

Steve

[Lethaface]

2 minutes ago, The_MonkeyKing said:

Pointed out why the Abrams issue is different case on my above post. This whole war is Europe's mess and especially so German mess.

This is what I don't understand; this war is Russia's mess which indirectly creates a security mess for Europe and thus NATO. 

The fact that Germany bought a lot of gas from Russia is a strategic mistake (especially in hindsight) but doesn't make it a German mess. 
Did doing business with the US make Iraq mess also someones else mess?

[Battlefront.com]

9 minutes ago, Butschi said:

A valid question and I can really only speculate. Maybe it doesn't change anything. Because I don't think anyone really believed we be getting gas through NS1. But markets are usually not overly rational. At the very least it will be an excuse for gas suppliers to increase prices a little more.

It is likely that gas prices will go up even if nobody was going to buy this gas anyway.  As you say, markets are not rational.  However, when they behave irrationally they tend to correct themselves fairly quickly because rational actors within the markets tend to calm things down.

Steve

[Butschi]

5 minutes ago, billbindc said:

Sorry, but critiquing the US on its provision of supplies is simply *not on*. We've performed relative miracles in this war and without the Biden WH's early and clear eyed understanding of what was coming it would already be over in the worst possible way. I understand Germany's issues and I'm even somewhat sympathetic but no, you don't get to do the above.

But I do, what will you do about it?

You also didn't get my point. I did not criticise the US for not sending M1s to Ukraine. I just asserted that they don't. I criticise people for singling out Germany despite no other country supplies MBTs and IFVs. And of course I can rightly ask why the US don't supply M1s or M2s. I just don't believe its only because "well we already send ton of other stuff". I believe the Biden administration doesn't do it for a concrete reason. Again, I don't criticise them for it, just saying that if others are allowed to not deliver that kind of equipment for their own reasons than so should Germany.

[Battlefront.com]

7 minutes ago, Lethaface said:

This is what I don't understand; this war is Russia's mess which indirectly creates a security mess for Europe and thus NATO. 

The fact that Germany bought a lot of gas from Russia is a strategic mistake (especially in hindsight) but doesn't make it a German mess. 
Did doing business with the US make Iraq mess also someones else mess?

It is, of course, more complicated than that.  Germany's opposition to doing anything to seriously punish Russia for past aggression is well documented.  There is some moral culpability there, for sure, even if Russia would have done the same thing even with a more punitive German foreign policy.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

3 minutes ago, Butschi said:

But I do, what will you do about it?

You also didn't get my point. I did not criticise the US for not sending M1s to Ukraine. I just asserted that they don't. I criticise people for singling out Germany despite no other country supplies MBTs and IFVs. And of course I can rightly ask why the US don't supply M1s or M2s. I just don't believe its only because "well we already send ton of other stuff". I believe the Biden administration doesn't do it for a concrete reason. Again, I don't criticise them for it, just saying that if others are allowed to not deliver that kind of equipment for their own reasons than so should Germany.

Other countries have sent MBTs.  Hundreds of them.  It took Germany nearly 5 months to send a dozen AA vehicles.  Yes, I think Germany has earned being singled out.  Especially when you consider Germany's capacity to send equipment vs. what it has actually sent.

Steve

[MSBoxer]

Unfortunately our European partners have allowed their militaries to atrophy for 3 decades, confident that the US would support them in any conflict.  I believe that the war in Ukraine has been a rude awakening, forcing them to realize that there continues to be a need for a strong defense against aggressors, strong enough not only defend their own territory, but to contribute to defense of allied nation states.

Now I know that Ukraine is not a member of NATO, but if European nations had built the means to defend not only themselves but also contribute to the defense of their neighbors, there would be more than enough equipment to spare for Ukraine.

Every nation gets to make their own decisions on what to send, but in some cases these choices are limited by available stock as well as political considerations.

 

[The_MonkeyKing]

15 minutes ago, Lethaface said:

This is what I don't understand; this war is Russia's mess which indirectly creates a security mess for Europe and thus NATO. 

The fact that Germany bought a lot of gas from Russia is a strategic mistake (especially in hindsight) but doesn't make it a German mess. 
Did doing business with the US make Iraq mess also someones else mess?

• France and Germany largely handled the Minsk agreements. 
• Europe made the decisions not to sell weapons to Ukraine after 2014. (US did sell some)
• Europe chose its energy strategy against the wish and recommendation of the USA
• Europe chose to run down its military capability against the wish and recommendation of the USA

European policy lead us to where we are today. Policy that was often contested by the USA. But just like with US running its show in North America Europe runs its show in Europe and US respects that. 

It is only fair that Europe carries the main burden. And US cannot do too much against the will of European countries(example Germany doesn't want long range missiles or western MBT/IFV to Ukraine). USA should not bail-out Europe in this. Especially if Europe is unwilling and unwilling to pay the price.

Edited September 27, 2022 by The_MonkeyKing