How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Grigb]

Bit of update - I looked at UKR GS morning report for shelled villages. (I skipped some villages in UKR rear)

 

1. Looks like yesterday-today night significant shelling occurred at West and North-West where UKR push is seems to be under way
2. Bridgeheads and East are much quieter however at Bridgheads UKR are pushing south and we see possible significant UKR penetration at Novooleksandrivka

I have theory RU defense is buckling at East and UKR is putting pressure at West to prevent RU from transferring forces from West to East. 

[FancyCat]

Tbh, while it is gross to let it occur, allowing Russia to export it's energy is key to ensuring the world's most vulnerable get by. Luckily, the nature of the Russian military makes it very affected by sanctions so if the West can trade "under the table" where we look the other way on energy, and China, India, and anyone else, stays very diligent sanction wise and Russia stays starved of high tech military hardware. Oh and if anyone wants to sell over some Soviet munitions to Ukraine like Pakistan, please go right ahead. (Btw, pretty sure UK MoD flights from Pakistan to Poland delivered those 122mm shells spotted recently)

Also, it has worked out well, European LNG supply is meeting what it needs to get thru the winter. Could Ukraine use more supplies and support? Of course. But if Europe had escalated too fast and high, Putin would have cut the gas supply way more earlier and damaged the supply more.

What the west has supplied under these escalatory restraints imposed by Russia has been well picked and well used by Ukraine to paralyze their offensive capabilities.

As long as Ukraine keeps getting financial and military support from the EU which underpins the Ukrainian economy and government, tho I'm sure it's not great for Ukrainians to watch Russia trade so much money, we know that their ability to use it in actuality is vastly limited, (Also corruption seems to be just eating the hell outta them), Russia exporting their energy is not the biggest danger for Ukraine.

What is important is keeping Ukraine afloat economically, and militarily. If that means allowing Russia to export energy to keep Western economics churning, as long as they keep Ukraine floating financially, it's a fair trade off.

Certainly NATO continues to ramp up their efforts for the long term support of Ukraine, plans are underway by the UK to expand the training of Ukrainians from 3 to 5 weeks. NATO training of Ukrainians is taking place across Europe with broad participation from NATO members.

Could it be more and faster? Yes of course. End of the day, the trend line for Western support to Ukraine remains up and up.

It is essential for the West to keep Russia from panicking. Not in the sense, don't keep support at a minimum to force a stalemate, but don't freak Putin out. It's evident that Russia, Putin, the General Staff, they got their brains screwed wrong and whatever punishment inflicted by Ukraine is assisted by strategic blunders chosen by Russia.

For example, instead of Russia freaking out over 200 Bradley and other APCs/IFVs to be sent to Ukraine, Russia laughs at 12 miserable HIMARS, and a few SPGs and 100 artillery pieces. And what do we have now? A huge Russian force paralyzed on the wrong side of the river, cause Russia simply did not consider Ukraine's ability to use the limited Western aid to be substantial.

Putin seems to be acting under the impression still that Ukraine won't fight, can't fight, isn't smart enough to win. The decision making that drove Russia to launch a full scale invasion of Ukraine, those decision makers are still at the helm, likely with the same faulty mindsets that drove this war.

Edited September 6, 2022 by FancyCat

[Grigb]

RU Rumors - Balakleia is hit hard, claims UKR advanced to Verbivka

[UPDATE] RU report

Quote

I have repeatedly written that the AFU is pulling vehicles to the Kharkiv direction. I also wrote that a strike in the Kherson region could be a distraction and that the main blow could be on the Kharkov front. This morning, the Ukronazists went on the offensive in the area of sett[lement] Balakleya. Now the bridges leading to the city are being exploded. The city is being shelled with large-caliber artillery and MLRS. The enemy has gained a foothold on the outskirts of the city. There is a counter-battery struggle, aviation is working on the advancing forces of the AFU. The situation in the Izyum direction has also worsened. There are fierce battles. The enemy revived all along the Kharkov front.

 

Edited September 6, 2022 by Grigb

[Eddy]

56 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

UK to expand the training of Ukrainians from 3 to 5 months

3 to 5 weeks.

Ukraine war: UK programme to train 'citizen soldiers' is expanding | UK News | Sky News

Although I did read somewhere there was a much longer staff training programme going on but typically I can't find the link now!

[Eddy]

Fixing RA in place?

[Grigb]

RU update

Quote

There are street battles in the suburbs of Balakleya. Arsenal in Virbivka is under the AFU [control].

RU confirmation

Quote

Some open sources [i posted them] (with confirmation of closed [private] ones) report that the AFU have launched offensives in the area of Balakleya in the Kharkiv direction, there are reports that bridges are being blown up, since the opponent has already been able to gain a foothold on the outskirts of the city.

 

Edited September 6, 2022 by Grigb

[chuckdyke]

 

[Grigb]

Balakleya seems to be at least partially encircled - location or Arsenal.

 

And this is last know situation of the front

[Huba]

Ukraine suffered serious OPSEC breach, as map of planned Kharkiv counteroffensive was posted online:

And another news - this is for real, but sounds like a joke:

 

 

Edited September 6, 2022 by Huba

[Grigb]

RU propaganda woke up and started to claim UKR penetrated only to Kraynya Balaklya river

[Grigb]

RU Confirmed - Berdyanks partisans bombed car that looks like had commandant of Berdansk

[UPDATE] looks like it was car of comandante but he was not present. Also reports of gun fire after explosion.

[UPDATE] looks like comandante indeed was in the car but survived (so far). In hospital now with heavy wounds. 

Edited September 6, 2022 by Grigb

[Grigb]

According to RU reports - in Balaklya UKR infiltrated early in the morning up to 100 men. There is hard urban fighting now.

[Huba]

6 minutes ago, Grigb said:

According to RU reports - in Balaklya UKR infiltrated early in the morning up to 100 men. There is hard urban fighting now.

Fingers crossed as always. Regarding the blown bridge from Bairak: it looks like Donets west of it is up to 20 meter wide, regular assault bridge should work for crossing it hopefully.

Edited September 6, 2022 by Huba

[Grigb]

Ru retreating exploded bridge from Lageria to Center

 

Seems to be this bridge

 

[UPDATE]

RU claim destroyed bridge is in Verbivka (could be both destroyed) + direction of UKR infiltration

Edited September 6, 2022 by Grigb

[Grigb]

According to RU report UKR did the same as in Kherson - hit part of the front line hold by Mobiks. RU does not expect deep penetration but the same shallow one as in Kherson [UKR putting pressure on RU like in Kherson]

[Harmon Rabb]

54 minutes ago, Huba said:

 

And another news - this is for real, but sounds like a joke:

Birds of a feather flock together.

[acrashb]

For those interested in the war(s) following this war:
 

Putin Approves New Foreign Policy Doctrine Based on 'Russian World' (usnews.com)

"President Vladimir Putin on Monday approved a new foreign policy doctrine based around the concept of a "Russian World", a notion that conservative ideologues have used to justify intervention abroad in support of Russian-speakers."

"Moscow should further deepen its ties [...] as well as the two breakaway entities in eastern Ukraine, the self-styled Donetsk People's Republic and the Luhansk People's Republic."

As others have noted, they appear all-in for Donetsk and Luhansk.

[Grigb]

Possible main UKR objective is the road to Volokhiv Yar - RU main supply road in this area.  

If UKR dig in Vebivka they will be able to threaten the road. 

[Grigb]

1 minute ago, acrashb said:

For those interested in the war(s) following this war:
 

Putin Approves New Foreign Policy Doctrine Based on 'Russian World' (usnews.com)

"President Vladimir Putin on Monday approved a new foreign policy doctrine based around the concept of a "Russian World", a notion that conservative ideologues have used to justify intervention abroad in support of Russian-speakers."

"Moscow should further deepen its ties [...] as well as the two breakaway entities in eastern Ukraine, the self-styled Donetsk People's Republic and the Luhansk People's Republic."

As others have noted, they appear all-in for Donetsk and Luhansk.

Well, this doctrine was in effect for a long time. What has changed is that they stopped pretending to be civilized and indeed they went all in. We can see it with cutting gas supply and directly stating it is related to sanctions.

RU position is publicly hardened. Together with Kadyrov sh*t show I believe Putin is not the one who is calling the shots now. At least he buckled under pressure of elite RU Nats. 

[billbindc]

8 minutes ago, Grigb said:

Well, this doctrine was in effect for a long time. What has changed is that they stopped pretending to be civilized and indeed they went all in. We can see it with cutting gas supply and directly stating it is related to sanctions.

RU position is publicly hardened. Together with Kadyrov sh*t show I believe Putin is not the one who is calling the shots now. At least he buckled under pressure of elite RU Nats. 

Kadyrov was mostly trying to get attention. It's happened before and I wouldn't read too much into it.

[BornGinger]

21 minutes ago, Harmon Rabb said:

Birds of a feather flock together.

That rhymed. Must be the beginning of a Combat Mission poem. Let us hear the rest, poet fellow.

[Grigb]

2 minutes ago, billbindc said:

Kadyrov was mostly trying to get attention. It's happened before and I wouldn't read too much into it.

And he tried to get the attention right after he stated that he is displeased with RU gov taking Sunni Muslim by the b*lls. Pure coincidence. Also hardening of RU public stance (aka leaning toward RU Nats who are anti-muslims) has nothing to do with it at all. 

Nothing is happening. Just don't look up. 

[Grigb]

New explosions in Byardyansk.

[Grigb]

And just like that info lid seems to be closing at Balaklya as well. 

[billbindc]

6 minutes ago, Grigb said:

And he tried to get the attention right after he stated that he is displeased with RU gov taking Sunni Muslim by the b*lls. Pure coincidence. Also hardening of RU public stance (aka leaning toward RU Nats who are anti-muslims) has nothing to do with it at all. 

Nothing is happening. Just don't look up. 

It's a dangerous habit in analyzing a fluid political and military situation to treat every data point as equally important as any other without knowing enough about the factors that led it to arise. One obvious way in which to weigh an event is to note whether or not it is something that we have seen before. Kaydrov has actually done this sort of thing multiple times as close observers of his regime-let can tell you. Is it possible it is a hugely important development? We simply don't know until something else happens but Kadryov fake resigning or similar is not an unusual event.