How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Grigb]

Interesting RU Nat post regarding Moscow mood. It is comment on yesterday somebody burning a car of Deputy Head of the Department of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation Yevgeny Sekretarev.

 

Quote

Demons among us — in Moscow on the Leningrad highway, a woman doused with gasoline and set fire to the car of a high-ranking official of the Ministry of Defense of RU. When she was detained, she explained that she did it because she "opposes SMO." Moreover, it will not work to write it off as [just] mental problems [of some sick people]— there are dozens of similar cases.

A simple example — in Moscow, they can really puncture the wheels, break the glass or scratch the car on that has Z. Sometimes it is done by punks, for whom the main thing is to find a reason [to break something], and sometimes it is the work of quite rational and ideologically savvy people who deliberately oppose Russia and demonstrate support for the Nazi regime in Kiev.

Moreover, those who do this are not at all afraid of getting [hit] "at the neck" from random witnesses, understanding the atomization of the Russian population of the capital, which has overwhelmingly long lost such concepts as national identity, patriotism and cohesion. Hence the perception of SMO as a "distant incomprehensible war". Not only the elites, but also ordinary residents of the capital, a significant part of them, refuse to understand that their own future depends on the outcome of this war. And until this understanding comes, the situation will not change qualitatively.

Discussion - RU Nats has lost Moscow politically. And without the control of Moscow (Moscow in RU mythology is the core of Russianes), they cannot claim the RU throne. Big problem and it means they have now only military way to gain control over it. But Moscow is not a village with a couple of houses. I do not think that whole RU military will be able to assault it without at least a year of bombardment.

So, they down to surprise and shock raid and then brutal suppression of any dissent. But I do not think it will work either because for that you need perfect execution and then working repressive apparatus. But current Moscow repressive apparatus is loyal to Putin and at least in part leaning to liberals more than to RU Nats. That's what we already discussed in the past - despite my opinion that we should not underestimate them RU Nats are weak.

But again, we need to understand that their weakness is Al Qaeda and ISIS type of weakness. Small military weak group of extremely motivated hardcore fighters who have nothing to lose because they have already lost their minds.

[Calamine Waffles]

3 minutes ago, Grigb said:

Interesting RU Nat post regarding Moscow mood. It is comment on yesterday somebody burning a car of Deputy Head of the Department of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation Yevgeny Sekretarev.

 

Discussion - RU Nats has lost Moscow politically. And without the control of Moscow (Moscow in RU mythology is the core of Russianes), they cannot claim the RU throne. Big problem and it means they have now only military way to gain control over it. But Moscow is not a village with a couple of houses. I do not think that whole RU military will be able to assault it without at least a year of bombardment.

So, they down to surprise and shock raid and then brutal suppression of any dissent. But I do not think it will work either because for that you need perfect execution and then working repressive apparatus. But current Moscow repressive apparatus is loyal to Putin and at least in part leaning to liberals more than to RU Nats. That's what we already discussed in the past - despite my opinion that we should not underestimate them RU Nats are weak.

But again, we need to understand that their weakness is Al Qaeda and ISIS type of weakness. Small military weak group of extremely motivated hardcore fighters who have nothing to lose because they have already lost their minds.

I think Kamil Galeev was saying a few months ago that the military is on the lowest rung in terms of power in the Russian state hierarchy, so they're mostly castrated and subservient to Moscow.

[Grigb]

6 minutes ago, Calamine Waffles said:

Good field AD like MANPADS is more expensive than Orlan-10, though.

It is debatable. Despite being made from literally crap and sticks the price previously stated in RU media is around >$100,000 USD (probably because of electronics and that means the actual price will be even higher due to the current sanctions). All while the price of LMM is supposed to be around $50,000 or less.

[Calamine Waffles]

10 minutes ago, Grigb said:

It is debatable. Despite being made from literally crap and sticks the price previously stated in RU media is around >$100,000 USD (probably because of electronics and that means the actual price will be even higher due to the current sanctions). All while the price of LMM is supposed to be around $50,000 or less.

I guess there's probably a big "tax" from corruption...

[Grigb]

Just now, Calamine Waffles said:

I think Kamil Galeev was saying a few months ago that the military is on the lowest rung in terms of power in the Russian state hierarchy, so they're mostly castrated and subservient to Moscow.

Yes, and that is one of the reasons for their incompetence and corruption. However, it is mostly related to the generals. Under the hood RU army is run by relatively young staff colonels who are relatively competent (they have serious issues but compared to classic RU generals they are like geniuses).

There is unofficial RU military anecdote regarding General Khyrstalev getting wounded at RU-Georgia war - the Command and Control of the Army significantly improved after he was evacuated. 

Putin does not control them as strictly as generals (there are a lot of them, and they do not have much power on their own - everything must go through generals). And these colonels lean to RU Nats than to RU liberals or Putin.

So, there is non-zero chance that RU Nats might get control over some parts of RU military. And that would be the most combat capable units. Still not enough to take Moscow though. 

[Grigb]

10 minutes ago, Calamine Waffles said:

I guess there's probably a big "tax" from corruption...

Most probably as well. But it will continue to exist regardless of anything else. Just because important RU men must have something to eat. That's why RU Nats are so eager to shoot some people - that is the only way to decrease appetite of important RU men.

[JonS]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

Saudi Arabia on its worst day is more aligned with US foreign policy than Russia was on its best day. 

That’s possibly technically true coughnineelevencough but it’s an exceptionally low bar.

with friends like the Saudis, who needs enemies.

Edited August 28, 2022 by JonS

[Calamine Waffles]

The Saudis are forced to align with the US because they do not want the US to ever have any rapprochement with the Iranians and no one in the Arab world actually respects the Saudis enough to actually allow them to be the Arab world leader.

[billbindc]

2 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

Putin critic in Washington DC died under mysterious circumstances.  Russia followers will recognize quite a few names in this article:

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2022/08/26/dan-rapoport-putin-critic-was-it-suicide-00053836

Steve

Take this one with a big grain of salt. There's no evidence so far (unlike Lesin's hyoid bone) that suggests something beyond suicide. And the article's assertion that it's weird that nobody noticed him jumping is nonsense. I know DC's West End and that specific corner. It's deserted at 2am. It's absolutely likely nobody would witness it. 

Maybe Putin killed him. But so far, unlike in Lesin's case, there's nothing that is out of the ordinary for a suicide.

[dan/california]

7 minutes ago, billbindc said:

Take this one with a big grain of salt. There's no evidence so far (unlike Lesin's hyoid bone) that suggests something beyond suicide. And the article's assertion that it's weird that nobody noticed him jumping is nonsense. I know DC's West End and that specific corner. It's deserted at 2am. It's absolutely likely nobody would witness it. 

Maybe Putin killed him. But so far, unlike in Lesin's case, there's nothing that is out of the ordinary for a suicide.

Perhaps not, but it is a great pretense to REALLY harass every tendril of the Russian government and its extremely well paid enablers in DC. The FBI and related three letter agencies should shake the bleep out of that infested nest of money influence, and espionage and see and falls out. Things are far, FAR past giving the Russians the benefit of the doubt about anything whatsoever. And if they did do it there should be about three Russians with diplomatic passports in the U.S. for the next decade.

[kraze]

13 hours ago, Kinophile said:

Considering theyre at least more realistic or better informed than Putler,  a RU Nat coup with more competent leadership would be not good, in some ways. The end result is probably the same (retreat from Ukraine), as they are still working with the same garbage.  However They believe they can stop the 10-ton Boulder Of Inevitability squishing everything with what, to us, look like better wooden wedges. So they'll try,  and fail,  and get squished but the squishing will become way more fanatical, violent and aggressive (which would speed up the very collapse they fear). 

 

 

I doubt they will make anything more fanatical than it already is because russians right now are already peaked.

their emperor-wannabe has to work with what he has - millions of aggressive serfs, who love tsar and many are willing to commit murder for him at a price of enriching themselves (like with a washing machine abroad). Yet there's no critical mass because the absolute majority, while aggressive, are cowards when it comes to suffering consequences.

Hence no mobilization, because the emprah knows there's no point.

It's why the next generation will be very very problematic. The indoctrination russian kids go through now is downright barbaric. They literally teach them in schools and kindergartens that other people in other countries are untermenschen and it's OK, even glorious, to kill them to take what really belongs to Russia (e. g. everything).

I dread the moment when their children will be able to enlist in just 8-10 years or so.

Edited August 28, 2022 by kraze

[Calamine Waffles]

4 minutes ago, kraze said:

I dread the moment when their children will be able to enlist in just 8-10 years or so.

Probably good that there aren't too many of them

[chuckdyke]

A German point of view. YouTube translate does a decent job. So, I can share it here. The Russian strategy may be based on a 50% attrition rate to win this needless war. An attrition rate like this would have most NATO administrations voted out of office. putin doesn't have that problem.

 

[FancyCat]

Disgusting, no words.

 

[Grigb]

There is definitely something going on in the minds of RU propagandists. Soloviev (yes, that Soloviev) reposted today a post of RU political scientist Evstafyev  (I do not know him, probably centrist):

Quote

The problem of the guardians [nickname of unofficial strongly pro-Kremlin and very loyal to Putin internet propagandist - they guard Putin and his policies], I think, is also that they do not always know exactly what they are guarding....

Not to mention why.

Good night, colleagues.

The thing is Solovyev is the guardian but just on TV. There are jokes already that his account was stollen. But if it is that then it is interesting because it looks like even a very well-known guardian is wavering. 

RU Nats lost Moscow but Putin might be losing everything else. From the military point of view, it means Putin urgently needs propaganda victory. It is an incentive to use 3rd AC boldly.

Obviously take it with a grain of salt. It is just my opinion.

[Grigb]

2 minutes ago, FancyCat said:

Disgusting, no words.

 

It is the next thing I wanted to comment on. Currently there is RU Nat internal drama and infighting (so far with words only) between hardcore RU Nat fighters/volunteers who logistically support them and semi-official reporters-propagandists/volunteers from civilian administration. Pretext is this Mangushev performance and specifically the use of scull. 

But first a bit of cultural context. As I said RU considers themselves as Ubermensch nation and an important part of it is a belief in moral superiority - we might be poor but morally and spiritually superior to heinous foreigners. As a result, for the public the image of a morally superior being is as important as an image of a military superior being.

Of course, it is huge hypocrisy because what matters is image and not actual behavior. But image does matter - we are saints, and they are heinous khokhols who are doing all these heinous things. And if there is problem with the image then while RU public will not revolt outright, they will not defend you either. They like voters will just stay home ensuring loss of critical election.  

Back to RU Nats - this Mangushev performance is deeply disturbing for both pro-Kremlin Nats and for centrists Nats. it is difficult to project Saints image when there is RU Nat walking around with claimed UKR skull declaring: "We need to kill everyone who considers himself a Ukrainian". But for hardcore Nats he said nothing wrong. This is what they have been saying for years. This is the whole foundation of L-DPR existence - to kill Ukrainians, to erase Ukrainian nation from surface of this planet and confine it to pages of history books - quote: 

Quote

I don't give a **** at all [link to UKR post about civilian deaths]. We will burn your houses, kill your families, take your children away and raise them as Russians.

For those dreamers above let me put a nice song:

  

[kevinkin]

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/russia-pulls-its-syrian-s-300-sam-battery-ships-it-to-black-sea

Russia unravels from the outside too. 

Glory days yeah they'll pass you by
Glory days in the wink of a young girl's eye
Glory days, glory days

[Grigb]

I do not remember if I mentioned it already or not - RU continue to report that recently UKR broadened type of targets HIMARS are engaging. They say it looks to them like UKR do not have issues with HIMARS ammo and hitting even sheds now (not very critical targets are being hit). 

And new HIMARS Copium:

Quote

...the American MLRS has turned from a high-precision and frightening weapon into a routine and they [Ru soldiers] do not pay much attention to it, considering this "wunderwafl" [joke reference to Wonder Weapon] a necessary evil of war, from which there is no escape and simply taking it for granted.

 

[Cederic]

There's a lot going on in this short clip..

 

[Haiduk]

Chevron and probably vehcile sign of 3rd Army Corps. First units already in Ukraine on Donbas

Edited August 28, 2022 by Haiduk

[Taranis]

"A Ukrainian artillery unit fires a BM-27 Ouragan, a 220mm self-propelled multiple rocket launcher, at a position near a front line in the Donetsk region on August 27, 2022. ANATOLII STEPANOV / AFP"


"Members of the Chechen volunteer battalion "Dzhokhar Dudayev" pose with the flag of the separatists of the Chechen Republic of Ichkeria, during a training session in the kyiv region, August 27, 2022. GENYA SAVILOV / AFP"


"Scene after a Russian strike in the city of Sloviansk, Donetsk region, Ukraine, August 27, 2022. AMMAR AWAD / REUTERS"

"Hanna, 62, cries at the grave of her son, 41, a Ukrainian soldier who died during the war against Russia, at the cemetery in Lviv, Ukraine, August 27, 2022. EMILIO MORENATTI / AP"

"A crater caused by a Russian military strike overnight, in central Kharkiv, Ukraine, August 27, 2022. VYACHESLAV MADIYEVSKYY / REUTERS"


Russia returns 428 bodies from Mariupol
Ukraine's commissioner for missing persons under special circumstances, Oleg Kotenko, said 428 bodies had been transferred from Mariupol, including more than 300 defenders from Azovstal, according to the Ukrainian government website.
Source : Le Monde

[kraze]

6 hours ago, Calamine Waffles said:

I think Kamil Galeev was saying a few months ago that the military is on the lowest rung in terms of power in the Russian state hierarchy, so they're mostly castrated and subservient to Moscow.

Yep. The hierarchy in there is a result of centuries of heavy polishing. People put in charge are mentally engineered, if you will, to love and obey the tsar and be ruthless to everybody who doesn't (gets you more stars). Military has absolutely no say in what happens inside the country, hence why Russia never had a single military coup in its history (unlike literally every other empire).

It's also why putin is able to meddle with everything on the frontline directly - with predictable results.

Any general is expected to just sit back and relax at his dacha, but send another human wave at a whatever map location when ordered to.

Edited August 28, 2022 by kraze

[Taranis]

 

"Residential houses destroyed by a Russian military strike in the town of Orikhiv, Zaporizhia Oblast, on August 27, 2022. STRINGER / REUTERS"

[Grigb]

Agent Murz reports again. It is a long tedious post about Comms. Not everything is relevant to us. What I would like to stress is the difference of competence in soft factors between RU regulars and hardcore volunteers. 

RU regulars

Quote

Why and how exactly the Russian army disgraced itself with a encrypted comms and [why] the Russian troops with an analog “Baofeng” on vest became a typical phenomenon – I already said, it is a topic for a separate large text...Before our eyes we have a wonderful example of “how not to do it” – an example of the mass distribution by some cretins of formally digital portable radio stations of “Russian production” (which are actually DMR Racio R810 with a glued [RU] nameplate “Baikal-100”) to some reservists in the LPR. 

And it's not that the stations are particularly bad. The process itself was implemented by cretins who could not imagine the combat use of what they were giving out. Give the battalion signalmen programming cords, software, laptops for programming? [No]. Teach them to flash stations regularly with new keys? No, why [do they need it all]? Just hand out portable devices to everyone without the possibility to change the radio data and check the box – “There is communication”. And the fact that after the enemy captures first such station, all the benefits of the “digitalization” go down the drain – there is no programmer, there is no software, you can't change the frequencies or the keys ... well, there is no "war without losses". Another universal formula of our cretins in uniform, as common as "Go, there's no one there!".

And the unfortunate owners of “Baikal-100” from all over the LNR have been trying for a long time to find on the Internet what and how to reprogram this thing. Then they brought it to me, I asked familiar service-providers in the Russian Federation who have been closely engaged in radio repair for a long time – “What is it? And how that [can be done]? And with what [can it be done]?” And the service providers say that this is a Racio R810, programmed with an old Kenwood KPG-22 cord, here is software for programming.

Base stations? Spare batteries? No, of course not.

THE WAY THESE PEOPLE DID, DON'T DO IT.

 

RU volunteers

Quote

KTSPN finds personnel, establishes interaction and gradually raises working digital radio networks in the DPR and LPR. With repeaters, with bases covering the entire area of the units. We help military radio workshops to “get on their feet”, and now together with Oleg Artamonov from the Party of Direct Democracy, who buys and sends equipment and tools for these workshops.

Building radio networks that successfully work for military tasks is a very difficult task. It's a lot of teamwork and a lot of investment. Somehow, already during the SMO, one of the DPR units turned to us at the KTSPN with a request to help purchase encrypted communications – here, they say, we have saved some money, we want some thing like this. I replied that we would buy communications through the KTSPN, so please save the money saved from your salaries for the installation of the radio network when the main equipment arrives. You will need a lot of things - homemade masts for antennas, power generators, extension cords, batteries for base stations… The equipment arrived, and yes, the money were very useful to the guys.

And, as you will see in the video reports, the equipment was issued in the most meaningful configuration, including, when possible, not only programming cables for the walkie-talkie, but also simple laptops for programming, on which all the necessary programming software was already installed and even a small video tutorial was recorded on how these to program these stations.

Well, where in the DPR at one time, back in 2020-2021, the work was completed successfully on a few “Motorolas”, now the surviving cadres are building radio networks already at the brigade level on these very “Liras”. Yes, this is China, but it is a fairly resilient in the field China and it has sufficient encryption. And, again, the manufacturer and suppliers have a full range of equipment for radio networks. And we, using volunteer capabilities, can buy it quickly enough and massively enough to build large enough workable radio networks.

 

And the important part - RU hardcore volumeters have effect greater than we usually believe. They are improving something that otherwise cannot improve itself - RU Forces.

Quote

And there is no one to solve these issues except volunteers.

Therefore, I was very pleased when, following the discussion of several appeals to the OPSB from Donetsk units on the topic of closed communications, Volodya Grubnik said that systematic, competent digitalization of communications is one of the highest priorities for procurement and organizational efforts of the OPSB. We are losing too much of our people and opportunities to successfully kill enemy soldiers with the fact that we do not leave open analog communication [behind].

We will try [to implement it]. We will try now, during active hostilities, to do what we could not do during the lull [Misk agreement]. We will try to find personnel, build work, provide this work with everything necessary.
Yes, it looks like a venture enterprise, but there is no other way out – otherwise we will wash ourselves with blood over and over again at the same lines where we are now.

[Grigb]

RU units are gathering: