How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[DesertFox]

2 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

No filter, that's for sure...

[Battlefront.com]

4 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

All NUKEMAP parameters incl. blastwave pressure and effects perfectly fit the picture. We´ll learn eventually.

Yeah, but the quantity of explosives doesn't conform to reality for all three impacts.

Even if he's correct about the explosive value of the two buildings that were hit, he's not correct about the third shot that hit in the open. Short of a tac nuke nobody can land 500 metric tonnes of explosives with one shot.

Steve

[Beleg85]

1 minute ago, Battlefront.com said:

Ukraine did say they were "just getting warmed up"

The theory that Ukraine has been building up a stock of Hrim-2 rockets for a short but expansive attack on Russian bases way to the rear is looking to be less theory.  Even 10 set aside means they can hit at least three airbases.

Steve

I seriously would not like to be in Russian GenStaff now. If this theory is correct, Ukrainians now have unknown number of mysterious missiles of unknown specifications able to strike God-knows-where in Russian territory passing any top AA systems...

Beautiful. I think tomorrow I need to buy a whisky. The last one was spend when "Moskva" sunk.

[Vacillator]

12 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

0.5kt is equal to 500,000 pounds

Metric 500 tonnes = 1.1 million pounds, but your point is still valid, even more so.

[Calamine Waffles]

14 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Well, 0.5kt is equal to 500,000 pounds of explosives.  A Hirm-2 has maybe around 500 pounds of explosives.

MAYBE an explosion from the buildings might get the count up there, but the buildings don't look big enough to hold that quantity of munitions (probably 1000+ dumb bombs).  However, the third crater, out in the open, certainly didn't hit anything like that.

So, I think that guy's assessment is way off.

Steve

The FAB-500M-54/62 bombs commonly used by Russia contain about 300 kg of explosives, so you'd be talking more like 1,500 bombs

[DesertFox]

1 minute ago, Battlefront.com said:

Short of a tac nuke nobody can land 500 metric tonnes of explosives with one shot.

Don´t have to, if your one shot hit a pile of stuff able to go boom. The ammo wasn´t in the buildings, it was in the open. Look at the prestrike pics.

[Battlefront.com]

NYT is still leaning towards SOF op:

Quote

A senior Ukrainian military official said that Ukrainian special forces — along with local resistance fighters loyal to the Kyiv government — were behind the blast. The weapon used was “a device exclusively of Ukrainian manufacture,” the official said. Ukraine has not officially taken responsibility for the explosions. ...

It appears unlikely that a Ukrainian missile strike was responsible. The base lies about 200 miles from the nearest Ukrainian position, and Ukrainian forces have few weapons that can reach the peninsula aside from aircraft, my colleague Michael Schwirtz reported from Odesa.

They're wrong.  The size of those craters is not something that could be generated by anything other than a very large missile or a very large bomb.  For sure nobody is saying Ukraine used an aircraft to strike the airport, therefore missile.  And of the possibilities we have to pick from only Hirm-2 fits that description.

Steve

[Beleg85]

6 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

Don´t have to, if your one shot hit a pile of stuff able to go boom. The ammo wasn´t in the buildings, it was in the open. Look at the prestrike pics.

Yup, this ammo was so bloody visible it almost cried "hit me, please!".

Frankly, even without UA deep strike capabilities, Russians should be much more attentive how they stock their ammo. A saboteur with a drone could also bring visible destruction on this base.

[Battlefront.com]

4 minutes ago, DesertFox said:

Don´t have to, if your one shot hit a pile of stuff able to go boom. The ammo wasn´t in the buildings, it was in the open. Look at the prestrike pics.

Again there is NOTHING where that third strike hit.  So at a minimum the guy is wrong about the third impact crater.  Period, end of story, full stop wrong.

As for the other two buildings, as stated above there would have to be somewhere around 1600 bombs in each.  That's a lot of bombs for a force of this size.  That's more than 150 bombs per aircraft sitting around "at the ready" (i.e. not in the bunkers).  I don't know how many fit on each of type of airframe, but that seems to be it is enough for several dozen sorties.  Possible, but really probable?  I don't think so.

Aside from the math, I don't know the volume of space such bombs would take up, but the areas don't look large enough to hold that many even including that the one on the right has a bunch outside.

I dunno what to say other than we know big booms happened, I just don't think what he came up with fits.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

19 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

I seriously would not like to be in Russian GenStaff now. If this theory is correct, Ukrainians now have unknown number of mysterious missiles of unknown specifications able to strike God-knows-where in Russian territory passing any top AA systems...

And if this theory is correct we'll be at 1500 pages of this thread very soon

Steve

[DesertFox]

4 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

Again there is NOTHING where that third strike hit.  So at a minimum the guy is wrong about the third impact crater.  Period, end of story, full stop wrong.

Sure there is. Dunno why you cant see the pile.

[dan/california]

The Ukrainians seem a bit peeved after six months of terror bombing. Can't wait for the Satellite pics of this one. 

 

[dan/california]

Allow me to repeat my theory that there is a very anonymous industrial park somewhere in Poland that was set up to produce these missiles by the middle of March, maybe with some final bit of the guidance system from a Western defence contractor, and we are now seeing the effects of five months of 24/7 flat out effort by the production team. 

Next question, how much range does this new toy actually have? Because it is only ~700 km from Kharkiv to Moscow. If I was in charge of building a brand new Ukrainian missile system that is the number I would be aiming for. 

[Beleg85]

Ok, as far as we know for now for Żubrówka Airfield (sorry, polish spelling )

1. There were no exercises of Russian or Belarussian forces there scheduled; and airfield taken by Russian VKS would be very strange place to conduct night exercises.

2. Viacorks is unreliable, but sources are from usually reliable telegrams and well developed Motolko Help.

3.If some rockets would hit Belarus, it would be massively escalatory move from UA side. Thus I am sceptical now. On the other hand, saboteurs/SF are not excluded.

 

[Calamine Waffles]

 A few well-lit cigarettes, probably.

[Beleg85]

Ok, so basically we can now call it false alarm:

 

[DesertFox]

Significance of the Saki Strike:

 

 

[Homo_Ferricus]

Anybody else playing the drinking game, "Have a drink every time Steve misspells the name of a weapons system"? 

I may need to go to the hospital soon 

[dan/california]

12 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Ok, so basically we can now call it false alarm:

 

Well bleep...

[dan/california]

The following is a NUTTY idea, I admit it.

What if, after luring the entire Russian army to the furthest south of Ukraine the target of the Ukrainian counter offensive was MINSK!?! It would be one the greatest masterstrokes in military history if it worked. Just the looks on Putin's and Lukanhesko's faces would be priceless.

[MSBoxer]

27 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

Ok, so basically we can now call it false alarm:

 

OK, but yesterday Ukraine announced that they are capable of hitting targets much farther than anyone suspected.  Lukashenko never seemed eager to get involved, now he has another reason to sit on his hands.  He can talk tough all he wants, but has even less reason to cross that line.

[FancyCat]

 

 

 

[Beleg85]

23 minutes ago, MSBoxer said:

OK, but yesterday Ukraine announced that they are capable of hitting targets much farther than anyone suspected.  Lukashenko never seemed eager to get involved, now he has another reason to sit on his hands.  He can talk tough all he wants, but has even less reason to cross that line.

He did everything in his power to avoid being dragged into the war. So far he was sucessful, thus it has zero sense from Kyiv perspective to put him into corner by any additional strikes. Of course, from point of view of morality and war law, UA is fully liable to hit targets inside Belarus- especially bases from which RUAF operates. But it is politically pointless and inflamatory. On the other side, perhaps UA sees so good opportunity to eliminate large cluster of enemy troops it simply can't handle...but I doubt it.

 

Other fronts are zilion times more important, for example from yesterday various UA officials talk about a lot about Crimean bridge...they may try to spook Russians till they don't know what they just faced. Overall, one can almost smell Russian anxiety and self-doubt regarding whole topic. They seem to avoid it as they can.

Edited August 11, 2022 by Beleg85

[DesertFox]

1 hour ago, Calamine Waffles said:

The FAB-500M-54/62 bombs commonly used by Russia contain about 300 kg of explosives, so you'd be talking more like 1,500 bombs

Nah. We are not talking about 1.500 bombs. We are talking about a software (NUKEMAP) which calculates blast effect based on kiloton equivalents of HE and explosion height. Big difference! Look at the screen.

[kevinkin]

https://asc.army.mil/web/portfolio-item/ms-prsm/

The Precision Strike Missile (PrSM) is under development by Lockheed and due next year. Maybe something similar - perhaps a Ukraine rendition? Fired from 3 x HIMARS using CMO, it has plenty of range from Odesa and takes out reveted SU-30SMs at the Saki air base in a simulated strike. Data shows the 500 pound munition comes in at 2400 knots. S-400 (12 TEL) can knock them out of the sky at times, but in other runs, they miss. Probably depends on WRA or other settings. 

Kevin