How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Grigb]

6 hours ago, FancyCat said:

Do we have any evidence that RU forces won't surrender to UKR forces? Maybe our Russian speakers can enlighten us, but I'm under the impression that RU forces don't consider UKR forces to be "bloodthirsty" especially with the frequent reports of prisoner exchanges, including the Azov whom one would probably consider to be the most likely to get hung by Russia, have been exchanged. 

Maybe the fear of being tried for warcrimes? but i dunno if thats the same as being executed. 

First, RU put a lot of propaganda effort into portraying UKR side as bloodthirsty. Plus keep in mind that enraged UKR soldiers did do a nasty thing to RU solders. So, the whole topic is not as simple as we might think. 

But apart from that it is pretty much the same as with other armies - Mobiks and a significant part of RU Regulars will try to run but cornered will surrender. Hardcore RU/LDNR are unlikely to surrender, and they will try to make a stand but trust in high command is low. So, they most likely will fight through damn the cost to get back to LDNR.  

Finally, i see indication that hardcore LDNR volunteers are not in Kherson area. They do expect there will be a big party in Kherson, but it looks like they are staying in LDNR. If it is true, it means UKR will face only hardcore RU and they will put more effort to fight but still prefer surrender.

It is all about hope. The vast majority of RU regulars are aware of Maykop "brigade" last stand at train station and VDV company at hill 776. It was glorious only for RU high command and soul breaking for everybody else. 

[paxromana]

6 minutes ago, Grigb said:

It is all about hope.

Our RSM when I was in the CMF ('Citizen Military Forces' - now the Army Reserve) back in 1974-75 made the point that if you find yourself in a situation during an opposed assault where it may seem like a good idea to surrender (even to a 'civilised' enemy), then, if you are alone or in a small group (less than a handful) it is not a good idea ... for much the same reason besieging forces didn't take prisoners after the besieged had rejected the last offer before an assault back in the day ... that is, everyone's guard is up and, frankly, how can you be sure that the 'surrender' is genuine (and, cynically, he pointed out that taking prisoners during an assault actually slows it down ... which may be a bad thing, depending).

No, he said, if you're in such a group, then fight on or try and withdraw and hope you can surrender to follow on forces who are less trigger happy.

In larger groups, you can probably negotiate a surrender, of course.

Is shooting someone under these circumstances a 'war crime' ... technically, yes, but practically? How is anyone even going to know (unless it's some dumb Orcs filming it)? And proving it was an actual surrender rather than a ruse ... perfidy (prohibited under the Hague 1907 and later) ... well, good luck with that.

Of course, in Kherson, you'll probably see a lot of group surrenders once it becomes obvious they're trapped ... so it may not apply.

[Grigb]

6 hours ago, Billy Ringo said:

If I'm Ukraine, I like my team.

If you just look at the very rough GDP numbers for those countries---it's about a 22X difference.  

WTF are the Russians thinking?  Seriously, this is insane.

But if you sum population of China and India then it is clear that your team is minority on this planet! The majority of the planet did not join the sanctions. They are not on your side!

That is not my joke. That's not a joke at all.

[Grigb]

As an example of what RU thinks here is typical RU "war analytics"

Quote

...A catastrophic situation has developed in the formations of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The Intelligence Agency (AW) of the Republic of Poland has prepared a report analyzing the current situation in Ukraine.
The number of irretrievable losses is more than 300 people per day, and this figure is underreported by the president's office to reduce the likelihood of a public explosion and create panic among civilians and the military. The Psheks [Polish people] emphasize that the systematic strikes of the Russian Armed Forces on command posts and training centers of the Armed Forces of Ukraine have led to the death of about 4,600 of the most trained military personnel, including senior officers, instructors and mercenaries over the past three months.
The report notes that untrained formations are being sent to Donbass. Since May of this year, almost all management functions in the planning and conduct of hostilities have been assumed by foreign advisers from the United States, Great Britain and Canada.

It is emphasized that Zelensky's office has set the task to hold the Slavyansk-Kramatorsk-Toretsk line at any cost until the end of August this year. By the end of August – beginning of September, it is planned to create an additional group of 30 thousand people, which will be based on four new brigades. It is noteworthy that the Polish special services are skeptical about Kiev's statements about the preparation of these four formations in Ukraine. In Warsaw, they are not excluding that the command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine misleads the allies in order to obtain new weapons.

They are thinking UKR is about to collapse. They just need to hold on a little bit longer.

[Grigb]

5 hours ago, The_Capt said:

Has me questioning what the average Russian soldier thinks.  They have been fed a diet of “Ukrainian Nazis” and “Manifest Motherland Destiny”, there is likely a percentage that actually buy in.  Now whether that translates to actually hard fighting while cut off…?

Nobody in RU except marginal Nats believes in RU propaganda 100%. Even hardcore LDNR volunteers say it more for public consumption (in private they are far more reasonable than on public. They just need to say something to cover their war crimes). On average RU believe 50% of propaganda, so Nazies translates in to spoiled and dumb people who were duped by heinous westerners (which is very believable because of RU indoctrination of Forteses under Siege and Inferiority of Other Nations mentality).

Regarding Manifest Motherland Destiny outside of RU hardcore Nats it is not much. They might talk much but talking and putting your ass in danger is very different. Motherland Destiny sounds hollow in RU because there is a reason Schevchuk said Motherland is braggard old lady at train station selling potatoes.  

There is also funny side - in RU Kherson literally sounds like [very rude] penis sleep but not in good way, like [here is] penis [for you] instead of sleep. So, I defended Kherson sound extremely funny and laughable. Not a very honorable place to defend. 

[Grigb]

One of the Lobaev brothers (owners of the only RU company that produces long range sniper rifles) describes what he saw at the front line:

Quote

I observe the gradual escalation of the war from the first maneuverable phase into the second: a la the positional deadlock of 1915, However, it is not caused by the same reasons, but it looks similar. The forces are located in areas convenient for defense and, hiding behind artillery, dig saps and countersaps to each other. In the place of the "meeting", fierce battles of assault groups with point-blank shooting and grenade combat, at a distance of 40-50m, flare up. You can hear them digging...

On all other sections of the 1000-1700m distance, remote posts recon and hit any movement by artillery fire. The massive use of snipers in these conditions creates serious opportunities for intercepting the initiative, since it will require serious complication of logistics for the enemy to evacuate 300x and export 200x, and, accordingly, increase costs and losses from artillery fire.

The impasse is caused on our side by the lack of trained highly motivated infantry, and on the part of the enemy there is nothing to oppose to the increased professional training of our artillery. [seems he visited quiet part where no NATO arty is used] 

Aviation, oddly enough, I see only rarely. And when I saw the last time, 3 MANPADS worked instantly on two of our helis from a neighboring tree line, where our drone was being suppressed by EW. Thank God and the VITEBSK (L-370 "Vitebsk") - missed the target. But the Mi-35 also released the NURS (unguided rockets) from the nosing-up somewhere in the distance, towards the Ygledar, scattered the heat traps and fell off...

[JonS]

3 hours ago, paxromana said:

Is shooting someone under these circumstances a 'war crime' ... technically, yes, but practically? How is anyone even going to know

you would know

[paxromana]

3 minutes ago, JonS said:

you would know

Indeed. But, as a famous general once said, 'War is Hell ...'

The Hague and Geneva Conventions are only meant to mitigate that, and do not delude (except for those who are completely clueless -- some civilians, mainly) themselves into believing that they do more than that ... and if you read the commentaries on them on the ICRC website and elsewhere they give some interesting insights into the lack of expectations expressed by those involved in drafting and/or interpreting them.

[hcrof]

Quote

Ukrainian forces struck the Antonivskyi Bridge over the Dnipro River east of Kherson City for the second day in a row on July 20.[23] Head of the Russian-backed Kherson Occupation Administration Vladimir Saldo announced that the bridge is closed to freight traffic for repairs but that it remains open to passenger vehicles.[24] Ukrainian Kherson Oblast Military Administration Adviser Serhiy Khlan stated that the Ukrainian strikes on the Antonivskyi Bridge have made it impossible for Russian forces to transport heavy equipment across the bridge

From ISW - seems like the bridge in Kherson has indeed got a weight limit on it that prevents movement of trucks or military vehicles.

Now they need to disrupt the rail line too!

[poesel]

Since 6h in the morning, Russia is delivering gas to Germany again at 40% nominal capacity.

[rocketman]

According to the War in Ukraine Youtube channel, the Kherson bridge is now not even servicable for fully loaded trucks. Sounds like the Russian units are already in peril. Hope this turns into a major turning pointin the war.

[The_Capt]

5 hours ago, Grigb said:

Regarding Manifest Motherland Destiny outside of RU hardcore Nats it is not much. They might talk much but talking and putting your ass in danger is very different. Motherland Destiny sounds hollow in RU because there is a reason Schevchuk said Motherland is braggard old lady at train station selling potatoes. 

Ok, so what is keeping the RA in the fight?…and they are in the fight.  That slow grinding action at Severodonetsk was very costly for the RA but we did not see mass mutinies or even desertions.  The Russian system is clearly under stress but the signs of a complete morale failure are not there.  It may very well happen or even be happening but RA troops are believing in something right now.

I get the cynicism, find me a soldier without it, however, the state of mind of the Russian soldier is directly related to their performance.  I have no doubt there is fear of their own side - the Russians have a long history of that, but I suspect there are deeper belief systems at play.  Or at least I would be cautious until we can confirm otherwise.

We also have to be careful with the de-humanization of the Russian troops.  Not because we have sympathy or “like them” but instead to build a clearer picture of their mindset and how to exploit it.  If we consider them “un-human” then we are left with “kill them all” and/or grossly misunderstand their resolve.

Based on what we have seen the RA definitely has issues with moral and motivation; however, they are still attacking.  And in my experience troops do this very dangerous work for various reasons but at the foundation has to be a level of belief in something. 

I, for one, am waiting for the whole rotten edifice of the RA to fall apart again like it did in Mar, but until it does, I am very interested in what keeps them going as it will shape decisive battles, such as the one that could be forming up at Kherson.

Edited July 21, 2022 by The_Capt

[Beleg85]

In the last days, large numbers of Foreign volunteers fighting fo Ukraine were killed. Two Germans, supposedly Frenchman, one experienced Swede and today first Polish, all gave their lives. Judging by given cirumstances, almost all died during artillery strikes. That means Foreign legion is probably deployed in hot zone.

53 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Based on what we have seen the RA definitely has issues with moral and motivation; however, they are still attacking.  And in my experience troops do this very dangerous work for various reasons but at the foundation has to be a level of belief in something. 

I would vote for mix of: money + structural coercion + unique Russian fatalism. Many times in Russian history the same story repeat itself- commanders know attack has no sense, soldiers know it has no sense, so instead of rethinking (unexpectedly to Western perception) let's all go and do URRRAAA!!! It was displayed even at micro levels by those tankers charging thogh minefields like blind ones.

Also, we are probably misled a little by amount of grudging by soldiers, which in US army would be already worrysome for commanders, but in RUAF it's rather norme.

Of course motivation of LDPR and some elite units (those that still stand) are probably different.

PS. Oh, of course vodka and possibly drugs are alo great motivators, almost forgot about them.

Edited July 21, 2022 by Beleg85

[Harmon Rabb]

Good to know.

[Battlefront.com]

59 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

I would vote for mix of: money + structural coercion + unique Russian fatalism.

Add cultural "machismo" and I think this is a pretty good underlying understanding of the Russian soldiers who are able to go onto the attack.  Other factors, such as vodka and personal gain (looting), help reinforce this basic formula.

Russian male culture is dominated by machismo attitude.  This means that the average Russian male is psychologically inclined to not show weakness in front of others.  This is a great way to get a squad of guys who might have serious doubts about an attack to get on with it.  Nobody wants to be the first to back down and show "weakness".  This is aided by the fact that any random sampling of Russian soldiers is going to have some that lean towards the hardcore nationalist or sociopath mentality.  Peer pressure, on top of everything else, is likely the glue that holds the unit together.

Picture 8 guys with 1 or 2 "Alphas" that the rest feel compelled to either compete with or at least are willing to follow.  If the Alphas break or are killed, then maybe someone wants to fill the shoes to become the new Alpha.  Or maybe the unit buggers out for the time being because the replacement Alphas aren't so sure they want the "job". 

I suspect this is why a lot of the Russian assaults have such a short lifespan.  Unit A goes in with a couple of Alphas and for a while that works, but the Alphas become casualties and the unit becomes lethargic, perhaps to the point of retreating.  The unit is given a short period of time to reconstitute in the rear (hours or days, rarely weeks) where the Alphas are replaced.  The unit is then able to rejoin the fight.

PMC contractors are similar, but they are also appealing to the "bravado" and "adventurist" types, as well as hardcore nationalists.  Plus better pay.  These guys are more likely coming from the small % of a population that is predisposed to violence, which means they aren't as anxious to avoid it as others (especially the conscripted).

The LDPR guys are different.  The hardcore are of the extreme nationalist mindset so they have emotional motivation to fight.  The less hardcore are more like the average Russian unit.

The mobilized guys tend to be the worst units because the most motivated Alphas are likely in other units.  The Alphas in these units are less likely to be motivated to retain their status to the point of death.  This means the unit sticks together and doesn't mutiny when left on their own.  In a stressful situation it is more likely fear of their own side that keeps them from running away.  I doubt they are easily persuaded to attack.

Steve

[Der Zeitgeist]

1 hour ago, Harmon Rabb said:

Good to know.

That's an overspecific denial. 

[FancyCat]

Been very interested on seeing whether Ukraine has been rotating units in and out of the front, which is essential (imo) for determining whether the Ukrainian military is close to breaking (as many Russians hope) or not.

Another poster on a thread elsewhere noted that the 1st Tank Brigade has posted a video after a long period of inactivity since May? So a month or two of rest and refit? following Chernihiv so it looks like Ukraine has moved units to the front that have been reconstituting in peace and quiet. If the front was truly close to collapse, we probably would have seen 1st Tank deployed sooner.  

According to this website MilitaryLand, several brigades have been deployed to the Donbas, (dunno if new or old info so apologies if already mentioned here), 1st Tank, 68th and 71st Jager, and 115th Mech. Now I guess that Ukraine won't be too keen on publicizing the rotation of units out, but I am hoping to see signs that General Staff is able to rotate units out of the frontline. If they do rotate, then I'm going to say that the collapse of the Ukrainian military is but a pipedream, if they don't, well, i hope the Russian offensive capacity is completely gone by now cause I can't think that the Ukrainian brigades on the frontline since the beginning of the invasion are worth much anymore. 

 

 

[Harmon Rabb]

15 minutes ago, Der Zeitgeist said:

That's an overspecific denial. 

We all know Ukraine sold their entire supply of HIMARS to Russia so they could not have been destroyed.

But seriously does anyone know how many HIMARS Russia claimed it has destroyed now in Ukraine?

[FancyCat]

Interestingly Kolomoysky according to wiki was? is? Zelensky's backer. Blacklisted by the U.S in April 2021, if Zelensky really is stripping him of citizenship, I think this is good? Might even be a affirmation of Zelensky wishing to agree with EU and U.S demands for corruption suppression. War has a way of accelerating change, hoping this is a positive step for Ukraine to enter the EU.

 

[Battlefront.com]

I think today confirms that Ukraine's offensive in Kherson is going to be relatively slow paced.  Good.

It is far smarter to attack when the enemy is at its weakest instead of strongest, right?  What is Russia's greatest strength?  Artillery.  I think it's pretty clear this is the one thing that is allowing Russia to continue attacking as well as defending.  Without it, its capabilities are extremely limited.  They simply do not have many units capable of fighting without copious amounts of artillery in the mix.

What we've been seeing in Kherson is a systematic, disciplined, and selective use of Ukraine's new capabilities to significantly reduce Russia's ability to use artillery.  Taking out Russia's artillery directly means identifying the location of hundreds of largely mobile assets and being able to target them effectively within a very short period of time.  That is extremely hard for any military to do and, I think, beyond Ukraine's capability.

The alternative is to restrict the use of artillery by identifying a systemic weakness, attacking that, and defacto reducing the impact of artillery on Ukrainian activities.  The obvious weakness that Ukraine identified and chose to target is Russia's reliance on centralized ammunition depots close to the front.  This is akin to Ukraine's focus on logistics in March to slow, choke, and eventually throw back the invading forces in the north.  It worked then, it is likely to work now.

Attacking the bridge indicates, to me, that Ukraine feels they've destroyed enough ammo that they can start in with their next phase, which is isolating the western bank forces from effective resupply.  They could have done this first and then hit the dumps, but I think they decided the timing of the bridge disruption should be closer to when Ukraine's ground forces are ready to move forward.  Gives Russia less time to react to the new reality.  Which is:

1. Their western bank forces are not only cut off, but they have a limited supply of ammunition and likely far less than what Russian doctrine requires.
2. Their ability to resupply their forces in total is seriously compromised.  If they emphasize moving heavy, bulk ammo over the river then other military necessities have to wait.
3. The Russians now fully understand that Ukraine is likely able to make the supply situation worse at any minute of any day of Ukraine's choosing.  Russia will need to shape their plans to conform to this reality if they have any hopes of holding out.
4. Russia is on notice that they need to have a Plan B for Kherson.  Whether that is preparing for a large scale withdrawal or some theoretical means of holding out there is not yet visible to us.  The only thing that is clear is that whatever they had for a plan prior to this week is almost certainly a failing strategy.

Because Ukraine is not in any apparent rush to storm Russian positions, this next phase could take days or maybe even weeks.  However, once Ukraine senses the right moment to strike, if they chose correctly the Russians will likely be out of Kherson within a very short period of time.  1-2 weeks.

I don't know that we'll be able to anticipate when Ukraine decides it's time to launch the ground offensive, but I think it will be very clear to us when they do.

Steve

[Letter from Prague]

28 minutes ago, Harmon Rabb said:

We all know Ukraine sold their entire supply of HIMARS to Russia so they could not have been destroyed.

Oh for sure, the Ukrainians are just about to deliver the HIMARS to Russia. They are just sending the rockets first.

[Grigb]

2 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

 I have no doubt there is fear - the Russians have a long history of that, but I suspect there are deeper belief systems at play.  Or at least I would be cautious until we can confirm otherwise.

I thought hard about your comment, and I can offer the following deep and very important belief system that could really motivate RU soldiers.

RU are indoctrinated into national superiority. Not to the extreme like Germans in WW2 but still very strongly. The idea of losing to untermensch UKR have catastrophic consequences to insecure RU mind (not for Nats only). Because they consider themselves ubermensch they bully to death everyone who they consider to be untermensch. Losing to untermensch means they will themselves become untermensch and will be bulled to death. Very serious motivation.

 

2 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

Based on what we have seen the RA definitely has issues with moral and motivation; however, they are still attacking.  And in my experience troops do this very dangerous work for various reasons but at the foundation has to be a level of belief in something. 

There was an interesting comment from Khodakovsky after the end of the operation. He said that there was severe moral issue in units that were defending but in assaulting units moral was extremely high despite big losses.

So, given what I said above we can conclude that attacking and pushing UKR back RU solders confirm their existing belief in RU innate superiority over UKR innate inferiority. That keeps their moral high and allows them to fight despite big losses.  

 

2 minutes ago, The_Capt said:

I, for one, am waiting for the whole rotten edifice of the RA to fall apart again like it did in Mar, but until it does, I am very interested in what keeps them going as it will shape decisive battles, such as the one that could be forming up at Kherson.

I have huge respect for you and look forward to your opinion. That's what i like about this forum - we discuss issues from different angles and different points of view.

Because after thinking about what you said I have to admit you are probably right. But that means UKR sucess in Kherson (aka RU collapse and subsequent gesture of goodwill) depends on whether UKR can keep RU defensive there and humiliate them with deep strikes long enough to deprive them of superiority feeling.

Now I would like to go back to your comment regarding the puzzling lack of operational maneuvers in this war. It became too dangerous. But what if maneuvering to enemy rear for him to collapse is not the only option now.? What if we can force it by precise strikes shaping his rear to our needs? 

Why push tanks/IFVs forward to cut LOC and risk losing them if we can wreck his rear? Enemy LOC will be useless if we demolish his warehouses, his vehicle maintenance depots and put all logistical avenues under arty and AT missiles fire. 

What's if an operational deep striking is a new operational maneuver?

[Grigb]

2 hours ago, Beleg85 said:

I would vote for mix of: money + structural coercion + unique Russian fatalism. Many times in Russian history the same story repeat itself- commanders know attack has no sense, soldiers know it has no sense, so instead of rethinking (unexpectedly to Western perception) let's all go and do URRRAAA!!! It was displayed even at micro levels by those tankers charging thogh minefields like blind ones.

Also, we are probably misled a little by amount of grudging by soldiers, which in US army would be already worrysome for commanders, but in RUAF it's rather norme.

Of course motivation of LDPR and some elite units (those that still stand) are probably different.

PS. Oh, of course vodka and possibly drugs are alo great motivators, almost forgot about them.

Good point as well. 

[Grigb]

1 hour ago, Battlefront.com said:

Add cultural "machismo" and I think this is a pretty good underlying understanding of the Russian soldiers who are able to go onto the attack.  Other factors, such as vodka and personal gain (looting), help reinforce this basic formula.

Russian male culture is dominated by machismo attitude.  This means that the average Russian male is psychologically inclined to not show weakness in front of others.  This is a great way to get a squad of guys who might have serious doubts about an attack to get on with it.  Nobody wants to be the first to back down and show "weakness".  This is aided by the fact that any random sampling of Russian soldiers is going to have some that lean towards the hardcore nationalist or sociopath mentality.  Peer pressure, on top of everything else, is likely the glue that holds the unit together.

Picture 8 guys with 1 or 2 "Alphas" that the rest feel compelled to either compete with or at least are willing to follow.  If the Alphas break or are killed, then maybe someone wants to fill the shoes to become the new Alpha.  Or maybe the unit buggers out for the time being because the replacement Alphas aren't so sure they want the "job". 

I suspect this is why a lot of the Russian assaults have such a short lifespan.  Unit A goes in with a couple of Alphas and for a while that works, but the Alphas become casualties and the unit becomes lethargic, perhaps to the point of retreating.  The unit is given a short period of time to reconstitute in the rear (hours or days, rarely weeks) where the Alphas are replaced.  The unit is then able to rejoin the fight.

PMC contractors are similar, but they are also appealing to the "bravado" and "adventurist" types, as well as hardcore nationalists.  Plus better pay.  These guys are more likely coming from the small % of a population that is predisposed to violence, which means they aren't as anxious to avoid it as others (especially the conscripted).

The LDPR guys are different.  The hardcore are of the extreme nationalist mindset so they have emotional motivation to fight.  The less hardcore are more like the average Russian unit.

The mobilized guys tend to be the worst units because the most motivated Alphas are likely in other units.  The Alphas in these units are less likely to be motivated to retain their status to the point of death.  This means the unit sticks together and doesn't mutiny when left on their own.  In a stressful situation it is more likely fear of their own side that keeps them from running away.  I doubt they are easily persuaded to attack.

Steve

Good point as well. i especially agree with the paragraph in bold.  LDNR Volunteers seem stronger because they have a bigger share of fighting alphas. Anyone who came there voluntarily is already above average. 

[Grigb]

44 minutes ago, Harmon Rabb said:

We all know Ukraine sold their entire supply of HIMARS to Russia so they could not have been destroyed.

But seriously does anyone know how many HIMARS Russia claimed it has destroyed now in Ukraine?

Around 3 + loader. AFAIR there were two videos. One is where they missed white oil tanks but declared that was four  HIMARS and two HIMARS got hit:

Here is geolocation:

 

Then they showed video with what they claim HIMARS + loader but no hits this time at all.

Also, there is a separate claim that UKR sold them 1 HIMARS.