How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[G.I. Joe]

1 hour ago, Artkin said:

That is not exactly what I meant, I can't disagree with you.

(...)

On topic: Why are we training Ukrainians on F-15s? I would have thought F-16's would have been more than enough. We are modernizing the F-15 to the EX standard, so what gives? A new air superiority fighter in the works? F-15 might be on its last standard but we haven't even deployed it yet.

No worries, I figured we might have been at slightly cross purposes on that point.

Regarding the on topic part:

Since the F-15EX is just entering production, I would guess it is not the version in question. However, the existing F-15E might be a possibility, and it would offer far better range and a heavier weapons load compared to the F-16, as well as a two-person crew (see also the tweet @FancyCat linked). Against the Su-27 and Su-35 it does make sense to have a heavyweight fighter and the Strike Eagle's air to ground capabilities make it a solid candidate as an Su-24 replacement for Ukraine while also potentially replacing the Su-27 with the same platform. Since Ukraine currently operates four tactical fast jets (Su-24, Su-25, Su-27 and MiG-29), a high/low mix of F-15Es and either F-16s or F-18s would still be simpler than the existing mix.

Alternately, the F-15C could be more readily available and possibly easier to train pilots on quickly as a pure air superiority fighter to counter Russian air activity.

Edited July 16, 2022 by G.I. Joe

[Artkin]

3 minutes ago, G.I. Joe said:

Alternately, the F-15C could be more readily available and possibly easier to train pilots on quickly as a pure air superiority fighter to counter Russian air activity.

This is the version I would expect them to receive. Maybe the Air Force doesn't think many will be deployed to the Pacific in the future if something were to happen?

I didn't think there was much importance in jet wreckages until we pulled a F-35 from the sea floor. I guess there's not much to lose with a 40 year old platform.

[The_Capt]

1 hour ago, LongLeftFlank said:

And at the risk of awakening the slumbering Old Ones from their Sunken non-Euclidean Thread Beneath The Waves....

 

 

 

 

That’s it.  Time to break out the gas cans and burn this thread to the ground.  You all might also want to tuck your pants into your socks.  Been great, time of our lives etc but we have got about 5 mins here.  Cut and paste what you can, and run for your lives!

[Battlefront.com]

The Bren tripod was a nice touch for us old hands

Steve

[Grigb]

10 hours ago, hcrof said:

This was the much hyped extraordinary session right? And they decided nothing?

Yep. They did few laws, but nothing what RU prop hoped. 

 

10 hours ago, hcrof said:

How much ability does the Duma have to set or change the agenda? Some people say they just rubber stamp what the Kremlin says but it would be strange in this case for the Kremlin to organise this session for no reason!

Yes, they rubber stamp what Kremlin says but it is not like Kremlin micromanages them. They do have autonomy to play their games. So, it is either Kremlin canceled what was planned or Duma was playing it's own game. Like they got big backlog and decided to get rid of it at once with extraordinary session.

[Huba]

3 hours ago, G.I. Joe said:

No worries, I figured we might have been at slightly cross purposes on that point.

Regarding the on topic part:

Since the F-15EX is just entering production, I would guess it is not the version in question. However, the existing F-15E might be a possibility, and it would offer far better range and a heavier weapons load compared to the F-16, as well as a two-person crew (see also the tweet @FancyCat linked). Against the Su-27 and Su-35 it does make sense to have a heavyweight fighter and the Strike Eagle's air to ground capabilities make it a solid candidate as an Su-24 replacement for Ukraine while also potentially replacing the Su-27 with the same platform. Since Ukraine currently operates four tactical fast jets (Su-24, Su-25, Su-27 and MiG-29), a high/low mix of F-15Es and either F-16s or F-18s would still be simpler than the existing mix.

Alternately, the F-15C could be more readily available and possibly easier to train pilots on quickly as a pure air superiority fighter to counter Russian air activity.

E-2D  If we are really after giving UA an edge in A2A. I really wonder what will come of that, can still be vaporvawe/ psychological warfare. But if not - if RU hates GMLRS, I wonder how they’ll like 2000lbs GBUs…

[Calamine Waffles]

3 hours ago, G.I. Joe said:

No worries, I figured we might have been at slightly cross purposes on that point.

Regarding the on topic part:

Since the F-15EX is just entering production, I would guess it is not the version in question. However, the existing F-15E might be a possibility, and it would offer far better range and a heavier weapons load compared to the F-16, as well as a two-person crew (see also the tweet @FancyCat linked). Against the Su-27 and Su-35 it does make sense to have a heavyweight fighter and the Strike Eagle's air to ground capabilities make it a solid candidate as an Su-24 replacement for Ukraine while also potentially replacing the Su-27 with the same platform. Since Ukraine currently operates four tactical fast jets (Su-24, Su-25, Su-27 and MiG-29), a high/low mix of F-15Es and either F-16s or F-18s would still be simpler than the existing mix.

Alternately, the F-15C could be more readily available and possibly easier to train pilots on quickly as a pure air superiority fighter to counter Russian air activity.

It's pointless to send them strike aircraft like F-15Es if you don't give the Ukrainians the training and equipment to do proper SEAD.

[Huba]

22 minutes ago, Calamine Waffles said:

It's pointless to send them strike aircraft like F-15Es if you don't give the Ukrainians the training and equipment to do proper SEAD.

Exactly, A2A is the key, CAS a cherry on top. Crossing the line of contact to RU might not be worth it. For sure should be verboten for any volunteer pilots…

Whatever is chosen, they need the new aircraft fast:

 

Edited July 16, 2022 by Huba

[JonS]

6 hours ago, G.I. Joe said:

https://xkcd.com/386/

[G.I. Joe]

1 minute ago, JonS said:

I considered pointing that out, but decided not to bother...

[Grigb]

Civilian Girkin (Nesmyan) about Gazprom

• In June Gazprom production falls by 30% (up to 27 billion cubic meters)
• In the first half of July the decline in production accelerated to an unprecedented 37%
• The situation looks threatening already for the domestic consumer and might lead to unexpected mishaps, accidents and even catastrophes.

Quote

In April, Gazprom reduced production by 10% (up to 40.4 billion cubic meters per month), in May — by 14% (up to 36 billion cubic meters per month), in June — by 30% (up to 27 billion cubic meters), follows from the company's own statistics.

According to the results of the first half of July, the decline in production accelerated to an unprecedented 37%: Gazprom produced 11.3 billion cubic meters against 18 billion for the same period in 2021. As a cumulative result, Gazprom lost 20% of production in the second quarter, which has never happened since the company was founded in 1989.

By the way, the situation looks threatening already for the domestic consumer. Such an unprecedented drop, if it lasts long enough, will disorganize any stable production cycle along all chains. We can manage to get into a gas shortage crisis already on the domestic market simply because a system focused on certain volumes will start to "fail" in different segments, and this will inevitably entail whole chains of the most unexpected mishaps, accidents and even catastrophes.

 

[Grigb]

Civilian Girkin (Nesmyan) about US embassy closure

Quote

The American Embassy in Kiev has stopped its work.

It is not yet clear what this may mean. It is possible that the Americans know something. Either a new aggravation of the idea of "Kiev in three days", or an action of intimidation is being prepared with particularly heavy air strikes. And given that the accuracy of hits is like from a rubber bomb, the Americans can withdraw their people so that no incident happens. It is worth recalling that an urgent message was issued a day ago for all American citizens to leave the territory of Ukraine altogether.

In general, in two weeks August, it is possible that the Kremlin decided to start it ahead of schedule.

Hmmm...

[Grigb]

Civilian Girkin (Nesmyan) about ARM-AZER Conflict

• The President of Azerbaijan accused Russia of violating guarantees on Karabakh
• Claims RU did not ensure the withdrawal of the Armenian military by June
• Looks like first call before destruction of the trilateral agreements on Karabakh
• In future the military operation and a final solution to the Karabakh issue is possible
• Turkey will benefit the most
• Russia is losing influence in the Transcaucasian region and will face the collapse of the entire system of Russian interests along the entire perimeter of RU borders 

Quote

The President of Azerbaijan accused Russia of violating guarantees on Karabakh.

Ilham Aliyev stressed that the Russian Defense Ministry promised to ensure the withdrawal of the Armenian military by June. But still haven't done it.

This is the first call so far. If the situation does not change, Aliyev will speak directly about the destruction of the trilateral agreements on Karabakh, on the basis of which Russian peacekeepers are on its territory. The third call will be when Azerbaijan breaks the agreements and demands the withdrawal of peacekeepers.

Further, there is possibility of a military operation and a final solution to the Karabakh issue.

Actually, already at the time of the conclusion of this very trilateral agreement, it was clear that it was based on extremely shaky grounds, and the fact that it was concluded without the involvement of international organizations makes it possible for any party to withdraw from it at any time than to bury them. The status of Russian peacekeepers depends entirely on whether this treaty is in effect.

Well, the most interesting thing is that Turkey, which is actually the fourth participant in the events, is generally free from any obligations. But it is she who will receive all the benefits from ending the conflict on the terms of Azerbaijan.

Russia is losing influence in the Transcaucasian region and the instruments of this influence. Well, a brilliant special operation in Ukraine will only accelerate the collapse of the entire system of Russian interests along the entire perimeter of our borders. Brilliant people came up with the idea to conduct it, solved all the tasks at once in one fell swoop.[Sarcasm, yes]

 

[Raptor341]

6 minutes ago, Grigb said:

Civilian Girkin (Nesmyan) about US embassy closure

Hmmm...

Interesting - wasn’t following this. What do we make of it? 

[G.I. Joe]

4 hours ago, Artkin said:

This is the version I would expect them to receive. Maybe the Air Force doesn't think many will be deployed to the Pacific in the future if something were to happen?

I didn't think there was much importance in jet wreckages until we pulled a F-35 from the sea floor. I guess there's not much to lose with a 40 year old platform.

I am sure the electronics on a current service F-15 would be somewhat sensitive, just not close to the same level as an F-35. The age of the basic platform isn't everything...these days, aircraft are like ships where upgrades to weapons and sensors can keep a platform competitive for a half a century. Gone are the days when airframe and powerplant technology was developing at a pace similar to computers in more recent years.

1 hour ago, Huba said:

E-2D  If we are really after giving UA an edge in A2A. I really wonder what will come of that, can still be vaporvawe/ psychological warfare. But if not - if RU hates GMLRS, I wonder how they’ll like 2000lbs GBUs…

That would be a good game-changer indeed. I've often thought it's too bad in hindsight that Ukraine wasn't able to continue the An-71 "Madcap" program on its own after the breakup of the USSR...

1 hour ago, Calamine Waffles said:

It's pointless to send them strike aircraft like F-15Es if you don't give the Ukrainians the training and equipment to do proper SEAD.

I totally agree that there's little or nothing they could do in a deep strike role without proper SEAD support (one more reason for a high-low mix with F-18s or F-16s), but the F-15E is more than just a strike aircraft. Even though it's not normally used that way by the air forces that have it (even, as far as I know, South Korea and Singapore, which don't have C/J models), the Strike Eagle is fully capable of air to air missions. There are also a number of standoff PGM-chucker CAS mission profiles it could be useful for.

The C model does seem more likely for Ukraine's current needs (and easier to part with in substantial numbers from a U.S. point of view), but I can see the E model being worth acquiring for the sake of having its versatility available for future eventualities.

Edited July 16, 2022 by G.I. Joe

[Panserjeger]

Interesting views from a RUSI analyst about the Air War:

Here is the RUSI report that is mentioned at the end of the video:

https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/special-resources/ukraine-war-paving-road-survival-victory

[Grigb]

2 hours ago, Raptor341 said:

Interesting - wasn’t following this. What do we make of it? 

The logic is (at least on RU side) US expect Embassy (and to extend Kiev) to be under direct threat. That means either massed missile strike or RU new surprise offensive aimed at Kiev. 

But there could be a third option - RU is just looking at different options to hit Kiev but at the end might decide to do nothing. 

[Grigb]

Looks like recent Vinnytsia strike unnerved a lot of RU who previously pretended that RU armed forces do not kill civilians. Basically, RU Centrists are now facing hard truth about RU war crimes and civilian deaths caused by indiscriminate RU strikes. And there seems to be internal RU hysterical discussion among Centrists - it is not difficult for Centrists to support honorable army, but very difficult to support RU version of Wehrmacht.

As a result of that discussion Murz wrote another rant. This time is it really angry. The main topic is heinous British bombed German cities at night in WW2 killing a lot of civilians so we have right to indiscriminately strike UKR targets regardless of civilian casualties. I am not going to translate this stupidity except small and relevant quote:

Quote

There is a monstrous amount of work right now to supply our troops with everything necessary, the list of what is necessary has been replenished today with such things that the hair on the head stands on end – “HOW?!? AND THAT'S NOT THERE EITHER?!?”

 The supply situation of RU is worse than we think, and this is one of the reasons Murz is extra angry. 

 Finally, here is Girkin reply to Murz rant. I am translating it to show that Girkin is far from the craziest Nat around.

Quote

Despite the fact that - in general - I am not going to polemize with the "Murz" - I will still note that my some dissatisfaction with the deaths of civilians in Vinnitsa is caused primarily by the fact that these specific "collateral losses" (without which, alas, no war can do) are unlikely to be necessary. Why? -Because the House of Officers is hardly much more important than the critical objects of the transport system of the so-called "Ukraine".
And also because every unnecessary death of civilians is an extra bitterness on the other side. They could be neglected, but after all, our Russian people are dying there too. Not the Germans, not the Japanese, but ours... even if brought to a state of either "half-zombie", or without "half-".
Not to mention the fact that for me personally it is a mystery: "HOW can one fully fight with enemies at the front and (at the same time) supply gas to "partners" on a permanent basis?". - In my opinion, neither the Americans nor the British during the Second World War did such favors to the Germans and Japanese (as well as Italians, etc.)... like the USSR as well.

 

[Grigb]

Looks like recent Vinnytsia strike unnerved a lot of RU who previously pretended that RU armed forces do not kill civilians. Basically, RU Centrists are now facing hard truth about RU war crimes and civilian deaths caused by indiscriminate RU strikes. And there seems to be internal RU hysterical discussion among Centrists - it is not difficult for Centrists to support honorable army, but very difficult to support RU version of Wehrmacht.

As a result of that discussion Murz wrote another rant. This time is it really angry. The main topic is heinous British bombed German cities at night in WW2 killing a lot of civilians so we have right to indiscriminately strike UKR targets regardless of civilian casualties. I am not going to translate this stupidity except small and relevant quote:

Quote

There is a monstrous amount of work right now to supply our troops with everything necessary, the list of what is necessary has been replenished today with such things that the hair on the head stands on end – “HOW?!? AND THAT'S NOT THERE EITHER?!?”

 The supply situation of RU is worse than we think, and this is one of the reasons Murz is extra angry. 

 Finally, here is Girkin reply to Murz rant. I am translating it to show that Girkin is far from the craziest Nat around.

Quote

Despite the fact that - in general - I am not going to polemize with the "Murz" - I will still note that my some dissatisfaction with the deaths of civilians in Vinnitsa is caused primarily by the fact that these specific "collateral losses" (without which, alas, no war can do) are unlikely to be necessary. Why? -Because the House of Officers is hardly much more important than the critical objects of the transport system of the so-called "Ukraine".
And also because every unnecessary death of civilians is an extra bitterness on the other side. They could be neglected, but after all, our Russian people are dying there too. Not the Germans, not the Japanese, but ours... even if brought to a state of either "half-zombie", or without "half-".
Not to mention the fact that for me personally it is a mystery: "HOW can one fully fight with enemies at the front and (at the same time) supply gas to "partners" on a permanent basis?". - In my opinion, neither the Americans nor the British during the Second World War did such favors to the Germans and Japanese (as well as Italians, etc.)... like the USSR as well.

 

[Aragorn2002]

1 hour ago, Grigb said:

The logic is (at least on RU side) US expect Embassy (and to extend Kiev) to be under direct threat. That means either massed missile strike or RU new surprise offensive aimed at Kiev

Imagine that. Maskirovka....

[Grigb]

8 hours ago, FancyCat said:

The Conflict Intelligence Team is now publishing dispatches in English.

There are two things I would like to mention from the recent CIT report

1) According to the VChK-OGPU Telegram channel, the military registration and enlistment offices fraudulently draft Russian university students into the army.

Basically, enlistment offices are trying to fraudulently grab students right now even though their permissions to study are until fall.  

2) Vladimir Putin signed a law "on the introduction of special measures in the economy during the conduct of Russian military operations abroad." It can be said that a formally undeclared, but effective economic martial law has been introduced in Russia.

Below is description of what exactly he signed for those who are interested.

Quote

Putin signed a law on the introduction of special measures in the economy. What it allows

Russian President Vladimir Putin has signed a law on special measures when conducting Russian military operations abroad, the document is published on the legal information portal.

The law allows the government to temporarily reactivate mobilization capacities and facilities, to unfroze the material assets of the state reserve, to force employees of enterprises to work at night, on weekends and holidays. If the Cabinet resorts to one of the measures, legal entities [RU companies] will not be able to refuse public procurement contracts, in particular defense orders.

What does it mean
Special measures containes "activities" that authorities can carry out  — the law regulates the procedure for their financing and logistical support.

In order to shorten the time of concluding state contracts and contracts under the state defense order, it is envisaged to purchase from a single supplier the products necessary to fulfill this order, as well as to form a reserve in accordance with the federal law "On the State Defense Order".

In addition, the law provides for an increase or decrease in the quantity of goods, the volume of work or services under the stipulated state contracts — proposals are made by individual state customers (the Ministry of Emergency Situations of Russia, the Ministry of Defense of Russia, the FSB of Russia and Rosgvardiya).

What the government says
The law does not imply the transfer of all the capacities of the economy to military needs, Deputy Prime Minister Yuri Borisov noted. According to him, the law is primarily aimed at more effective implementation of the state defense order and primarily concerns its main performers.

The involvement of employees in overtime work will be paid additionally in accordance with labor legislation and will not be of a mass nature, Borisov said. The Deputy Prime Minister also noted that the measure "will eliminate the shortage of individual specialists in a number of defense industry organizations to fulfill contracts."

In the Kremlin, when asked when special measures could be involved, they replied that the decision on this is made by the government, the correspondent of RBC learned. Journalists also asked whether these measures duplicate the powers of the president.

"In what [features] do you see this duplication? We don't have martial law, but a special military operation. This is determined by the government," Presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov said.

Business concerns
In order to ensure operations, the government will be able to make decisions on "making actions" by executive authorities, but it is not specified which actions are to be expected. Also, there is no indication in the text of the bill that companies [only] from the defense industry sector will be involved in the compulsory implementation of state orders to ensure operations.

"The document mentions "additional loading of production capacities of defense industry organizations", but then follows "resource provision for supplies" within the framework of the state order, and [it can cover] any company here," explained Igor Lipsits, Doctor of Economics, in a comment for Forbes.

The explanatory note to the bill mentions repair work — in theory, a company producing conventional trucks may be ordered to repair military equipment, the economist admits. According to economist Nikolai Kulbaki, the adopted norm can affect "almost any industry".

"The bill imposes additional obligations on enterprises to order employees to [do]unpaid overwork, to leave vacations and to reduce days off. There are big doubts that in the conditions of stopping commercial activity, enterprises will be able to compensate for these inconveniences to employees," Alexey Mostovshchikov, a member of the General Council of Delovaya Rossiya, warned about the risks.

 

[Grigb]

6 minutes ago, Aragorn2002 said:

Imagine that. Maskirovka....

Never underestimate the stupidity of RU High Command - if it did not work the first time then try it ten more times. Quote from Art of RU War. 

[Huba]

25 minutes ago, Grigb said:

Never underestimate the stupidity of RU High Command - if it did not work the first time then try it ten more times. Quote from Art of RU War. 

Not limited to RU Army I'm afraid.

 

Edited July 16, 2022 by Huba

[The_Capt]

3 hours ago, Panserjeger said:

Interesting views from a RUSI analyst about the Air War:

Here is the RUSI report that is mentioned at the end of the video:

https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/special-resources/ukraine-war-paving-road-survival-victory

That Rusi piece is really good, reading into it now:

“The reliance on railheads and civilian vehicles, which are largely restricted to road movement, makes key bottlenecks in Russian artillery highly predictable. Moreover, the ammunitions dumps at the divisional and brigade level are large, distinct, hard to conceal or defend, and slow to relocate. Given Ukraine’s limited capacity to strike at the Russian military’s rear echelons and fight a deep battle, this is a weakness that is yet to be widely capitalised upon. Isolated strikes on ammunition dumps show what is possible but given the disparity in guns and the shortage of Russian precision fires, the fastest way to level the playing field is to enable Ukraine to strike Russian artillery logistics. The critical factor in this is precision, range and payload. Ukraine needs strike systems with a sufficiently powerful warhead to ignite stored ammunition or damage key logistical infrastructure, accurate enough to hit these targets precisely, and with the range to do so from beyond Russian howitzer fire. The best system for this is MLRS, although with a more powerful munition than the UK’s reduced lethality unitary warhead GMLRS. These capabilities need to be provided at scale.”

So this was published on Jul 4, and written likely before the HIMARs arrived.  It explains the exploding ammo depots over the last couple weeks quite well.  The UA can see the entire RA logistics chain, it is big and cumbersome, but could not hit it…they can now - last puzzle piece.

[Grigb]

RU is starting to boast

Quote

Judging by what is happening in the frontline zone along the entire front line, the ukry will soon be raked away like never before. Not everyone will have time to reach the Polish border.

Looks like RU is up to their version of Wacht am Rhein.