How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[chrisl]

13 hours ago, chris talpas said:

Anyone else having problems with loading page 1019?  Other pages load fine but this one either hangs loading or gives a getpage error.

A shame since judging by the following pages that is where the big kaboom is initially reported

 

Hangs up Safari on laptop and phone, but loaded with Mozilla.  I'm not sure what page element was the problem, but Mozilla was blocking most of the embedded links.

[Butschi]

2 minutes ago, Huba said:

So an additional thought regarding this. Assuming this actually happens and is somehow agreed within NATO (or at least some NATO countries) it's safe to say that UA will have about 0 use from 10 odd tanks, completely incompatible with the rest of their fleet. They could maybe deploy them with TD on as backup on the quiet front, but that's it.

For it to make sense, many more would have to follow, hundreds at least. The first 10 would be used for some training, as a "proof of concept" of sorts, and pave the way for other western armor the same way M777s or HIMARS were delivered. I bet that Poland would be happy to part with ours and unify our whole fleet with Abrams, if given the opportunity. That would mean 240 A4 and A5 in moderate state of repair would be available. Dunno if any other countries would be willing to do a similar swap - Swedes perhaps, for their older Strv121 that are AFAIK stored anyway, and maybe Finns?

The advantage of this deal would be it being less escalatory than straight out sending M1s. Leo is also a bit easier to sustain due to less thirsty diesel. And for US it would mean pushing out Germany as chief supplier of armor to Europe, not something to sneeze at defninitely.

This of course is a pure conjecture at this point, but quite logical IMO if we assume that the bolded part is true, and isn't just political virtue signalling by the Spaniards.

I don't think Spain can legally give those Leos to Ukraine without German consent. So if real this really could be a test that was agreed on within NATO. 

[Der Zeitgeist]

7 minutes ago, Butschi said:

I don't think Spain can legally give those Leos to Ukraine without German consent. So if real this really could be a test that was agreed on within NATO. 

Reznikov apparently had a conversation with German MoD Lambrecht today. Maybe something was agreed on there.

 

[Huba]

Just now, Der Zeitgeist said:

Reznikov apparently had a conversation with German MoD Lambrecht today. Maybe something was agreed on there.

 

If that's true, I wonder what DE got in return. But if they finally open the armor floodgates and allow Ukraine to be re-armed with Leo2 and Marders in the hundreds, I'd be OK even with opening NS2  

[Der Zeitgeist]

1 minute ago, Huba said:

If that's true, I wonder what DE got in return.

Maybe they promised us Klitschko as new Ambassador to Germany. 

[Beleg85]

38 minutes ago, Huba said:

"Benny Gantz, Israeli MoD approved military help to Ukraine"

If true, this is seriously scary, given in what direction affairs in the Middle East are going. We might very well be on a road to a new world war

They didn't provide any source.

But interesting response to Iranians selling their drones to Putin. Hopefully Aiatollahs will convince Isreali public opinion to support Ukraine more.

Edited July 12, 2022 by Beleg85

[Butschi]

14 minutes ago, Huba said:

If that's true, I wonder what DE got in return. But if they finally open the armor floodgates and allow Ukraine to be re-armed with Leo2 and Marders in the hundreds, I'd be OK even with opening NS2  

You sure know how to spoil us, good sir. Oh well, I'm sure we'll find a few Leos or Marders somewhere... I do remember having seen a few in a cupboard down in the cellar, recently... dunno if they are still able to drive, though... and they talk about Russians scraping the bottom of the barrel...

Edited July 12, 2022 by Butschi

[Huba]

6 minutes ago, Butschi said:

You sure know how to spoil us, good sir. Oh well, I'm sure we'll find a few Leos or Marders somewhere...  and they talk about Russians scraping the bottom of the barrel...

I mean, this is a pure speculation at this point of course, but there is up to 2000 of Leo2 across Europe, 700 just in PL, SE and FL. All are older versions, so swap for M1s from the desert wouldn't be a step back. And the huge advantage of Leo is the repair/ maintenance facilities in Poland and Germany, M1 doesn't have comparable support base in Europe. And all Germany would have to do for it to happen is go give a green light, no need to scrap anything up from your own stocks Well, maybe those Marders, but that's a different story...

Edited July 12, 2022 by Huba

[Calamine Waffles]

18 minutes ago, Beleg85 said:

They didn't provide any source.

But interesting response to Iranians selling their drones to Putin. Hopefully Aiatollahs will convince Isreali public opinion to support Ukraine more.

No sign of that so far:

https://www.timesofisrael.com/israel-to-send-new-batch-of-defensive-equipment-to-ukraine/

[Grigb]

Fresh Girkin post

Quote

Nothing new at the front. The operational pause continues. That does not exclude the exchange of artillery and missile strikes. Our aviation and missile forces are trying to "take revenge" for the recent "loud" destruction of our rear facilities. A lot of [RU] strikes today and in different places. Unfortunately, I do not have data on the effectiveness of these strikes, but they certainly cause serious losses to the enemy.
In turn, the AFU struck another blow with HIMARS, this time - at the ammunition depot at the DZTO plant in the Petrovsky district of Donetsk.
Again, direct hit.

On the Slavansk, Seversky and Sodedarsky directions, our troops (according to numerous reports from open sources - at Soledar and Artemovsky "the main violin" is played by "Wagner") continue to push the AFU. The enemy, in turn, covered [most of frontline] with its own "Mobiks", but regular most combat-ready forces are located in most dense urban areas, where he prepares the main line of defense.

I still don't expect any major successes in the Donbas in the near future: if the main offensive actions of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation are continued here (as many believe), it again will be a slow and bloody (for both sides) [RU] "gnawing through" prepared defensive positions. It is, in my opinion, is also beneficial to the enemy (since at the moment he has a much larger human resource, and soon weapons will also be brought in abundance).

I currently have no information on any changes to the front line outside of Donbass.

 

[Beleg85]

24 minutes ago, Calamine Waffles said:

No sign of that so far:

https://www.timesofisrael.com/israel-to-send-new-batch-of-defensive-equipment-to-ukraine/

Only some defensive and protective personal equipment. But this is clearly a message to Iran- there are no coincidences in ME region.

 

There are more numerous gossips last days about Poland sending PT-91 Twardy. They are still rumours, but are increasingly being discussed by serious military websites and analysts.

[Grigb]

New RU stats from Civilian "Girkin" (Nesmyan)

Quote

According to Rosstat, in May 2022, the production of cars in Russia collapsed by 97%, buses - by 77%, diesel locomotives - by 63%, glass - by 61%, washing machines - by 59%, refrigerators - by 58%, freight cars - by 52%, electric motors - by 50%., passenger cars - by 40%, baking equipment and elevators - by 35%, pumps - by 30%.

"We haven't really started anything serious yet" ©

No comments

[Battlefront.com]

3 hours ago, Butschi said:

Pressure from Germany alone won't do much, true. But as I said, other countries may see it as a way to get out of this while Germany is taking the blame. Overtly criticizing but quietly supporting the move.

Kaliningrad is an example where German pressure didn't work, however in the case of that turbine for NS1 it worked. And our government explicity denied breaking the sanctions this way because it was agreed on that sanctions would only make sense if they hurt Russia more than they hurt us. So there is already a precedence.

True, and there will be a lot more of this if the war lasts into the winter.  However...

The Europeans, including Germany, have seemingly abandoned the notion of outright appeasement of Russia for self interests.  Some nations, like Poland, saw things clearly right from the start.  Others, like Germany, waffled until things like Bucha came to light.  There's now very little room for giving Putin anything that Ukraine isn't honestly willing to sign off on.  Strong arming Ukraine is really not viable for any Western country.  Even floating a proposal is potentially politically hazardous.  Ukraine has made it quite clear that it will use both lungs to shout out to the world its displeasure.  And the world seems to be very receptive to listening.

This puts massive constrains on what Putin can offer up for concessions to end the war.  Giving Ukraine back some of its territory, for example, is not acceptable to Ukraine or the majority of the West, so that's not going to cut it.  Yet it isn't possible for Putin to give Ukraine back all of its pre-2022 territory, not to mention pre-2014 territory.  Even if Putin personally could bring himself to do it, which I doubt, the mere suggestion of it in Moscow would mean a lead heart attack while falling out a window.

The result of this is I'm not worried about Germany waffling when the winter comes.  Putin's inability to concede anything of significance ensures that normalization is not possible.

Steve

[Grigb]

Interesting scandal in Crimea. According to RU Nats, a few days ago three young Crimean Tatars beat rehabilitating RU soldier. Allegedly he was beaten for wearing a Z cap. RU Nats started to demand a severe punishment for Tatars. But it looks like local police and news started to protect young Tatars. According to them it was RU solder who got drunk and started to shout Glory to Ukraine!!! Later head of Crimea Aksenov clarified that it was just a street fight without any reference to the war nothing to see here please disperse!

Stay tuned for the next episode Death of Stalin 2.

[UPDATE] One of the attackers has the name Server Bilyalov. Coincidentally there is a member of the [RU highest] Presidential Council on Interethnic Relations with the name Eskender Bilyalov.

 

Edited July 12, 2022 by Grigb

[akd]

Russian rail communication between Rubizhne and Lysychansk severed:

48.96105° N, 38.39795° E

Will be interesting to know how UKR pulled this off. Supposedly 3t of explosives were used.

EDIT: nevermind, was dropped back in May while area still under UKR control.  Cool vid, though.

Edited July 12, 2022 by akd

[Vanir Ausf B]

3 minutes ago, akd said:

Russian rail communication between Rubizhne and Lysychansk severed:

Sounds like this happened a while ago.

 

[Battlefront.com]

On Page 1021 I posted a lengthy explanation about the problems for Russia if it mobilizes.  My conclusion is the same as Putin's, which is that mobilization at this point in the war (and earlier) is impractical for this war at this time.  Something much bigger than Ukraine would have to happen AND do so in a way that wouldn't also increase the chances of Putin being ousted.  I can't envision anything fitting that description, therefore I don't believe mobilization is possible.

In a similar way there's not much that Russia can do about the destruction from Western artillery systems, in particular HIMARS.  The common element, which is the most decisive, is the lack of time.  As with mobilization, Russia needs a solution that is likely to work pretty much straight away.  I've already laid out the case that this can't happen with Mobilization, and now I'll do the same for defending against Ukraine's evolving strike capabilities.

First, Russia absolutely does not have the military capacity to interdict what Ukraine is throwing at it.  Not before it's launched and certainly not after.  This means Russia is stuck with having to minimize Ukraine's ability to inflict major pain.

Second, in order to minimize the damage the Russian military must adopt new procedures for commanding and supplying its forces.  Not just a little change, but near total shift to new processes.  Russia is basically using the same systems as were established in the 1930s.  Who here thinks they are mentally prepared to toss out nearly 100 years of fighting?  They certainly weren't in the past when faced with massive exposure of shortcomings, such as Afghanistan, Chechnya, and Georgia.  Not to mention Ukraine since 2014.  I don't think Russia has the brains to pull this off even if it has the will, which I don't think it has either.

Third, this isn't about downloading some open source PDFs from Western militaries and translating them into Russian.  There's years worth of expensive, hard work to implement even the core of the capabilities that are needed.  The lack of mechanical unloading for one, changing Russian cultural attitudes towards safety is another.  Same thing with command and control.  It's not just about radios, it's about an entirely different way of structuring authority.  Something that Russia has shown an absolute rejection of even after Georgia showed it was necessary.  Russia is simply not mentally geared to make these sorts of changes.  Not now, not in 5 years.  It's not going to happen.

 

OK, so fundamentally addressing the underlying problems is not feasible.  Does this mean Russia won't do anything?  No.  What they will do is what Russia always does... develop a half assed plan and then half ass the execution of it.  In this context it means some more caution about how HQs are deployed, moving some logistics activities further back, concentrating air defenses in a few places, censoring critics, etc.

In short, Ukraine is not likely to run out of juicy targets any time soon.

Steve

 

[Battlefront.com]

1 minute ago, Vanir Ausf B said:

Sounds like this happened a while ago.

 

Yeah, I think that is the one that Ukrainian Special Forces released some videos of from their GoPros or whatever they used.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

19 minutes ago, Grigb said:

Interesting scandal in Crimea. According to RU Nats, a few days ago three young Crimean Tatars beat rehabilitating RU soldier. Allegedly he was beaten for wearing a Z cap. RU Nats started to demand a severe punishment for Tatars. But it looks like local police and news started to protect young Tatars. According to them it was RU solder who got drunk and started to shout Glory to Ukraine!!! Later head of Crimea Aksenov clarified that it was just a street fight without any reference to the war nothing to see here please disperse!

Stay tuned for the next episode Death of Stalin 2.

[UPDATE] One of the attackers has the name Server Bilyalov. Coincidentally there is a member of the [RU highest] Presidential Council on Interethnic Relations with the name Eskender Bilyalov.

 

This is one reason why Russia is so frustrating to study from a Western perspective.  We're used to there being maybe only 2, possibly 3, competing narratives for something like this.  In Russia it seems one starts with 3 and goes up from there.  Any one of these explanations could be true as each one of them seems plausible.  Though personally I think if Aksenov says something then we can rule that particular explanation out as false.  His reputation does precede him

Steve

[Huba]

13 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

OK, so fundamentally addressing the underlying problems is not feasible.  Does this mean Russia won't do anything?  No.  What they will do is what Russia always does... develop a half assed plan and then half ass the execution of it.  In this context it means some more caution about how HQs are deployed, moving some logistics activities further back, concentrating air defenses in a few places, censoring critics, etc.

In short, Ukraine is not likely to run out of juicy targets any time soon.

Can't agree more, and here's some data that already proves that:

"There will be no martial law and mobilization" according to Andriej Klimov, who's a Deputy Chair of the Federation Council Committee on Foreign Affairs:

 

And a lengthy piece about RU covert industrial mobilization - for sure needed, but without mobilizing manpower it's exactly a half assed measure you described (in Polish, but Google Translate works reasonably):

https://defence24.pl/przemysl/rosyjski-przemysl-zbrojeniowy-bedzie-pracowal-dzien-i-noc-7-dni-w-tygodniu-komentarz

 

[Grigb]

16 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

I've been waiting for something like this to happen.  The Russian propaganda surrounding their military capabilities vs. NATO have been laughable since the days of the Soviet Union.  It seemed to me that most everybody believed it.

RU citizens do try to make sens out of RU propaganda but... It works like this. Let's say RU military power is 4. US military power is 50. RU propaganda claims RU military power is 80. RU citizens look at RU propaganda and divide it by 2. They get 40, so for them RU is almost equal to US. We are the second most powerful country in the world!

This is the core strategy of RU propaganda. It lies so much that an ordinary observer is duped even after adjusting for propaganda. 

 

16 hours ago, Battlefront.com said:

When this war started I figured Javelin and NLAW would have created more of a fuss in Russian circles than it did, but maybe the mil bloggers had already come to understand nothing can defeat those weapons and so didn't get too upset when turrets started flying to the stars. 

While NLAW did not register with them at all (Why do you need so complicated and expensive version of RPG? 8 RPGs are better than 1 NLAW!) Javelin already had a reputation with RU.  Despite all public BS Javelin scared them a lot. That's why they had to put those cope cages to calm tank crews somewhat.

Given the already combustible reputation of RU tanks Nats did expect RU tanks to go kaboom. The only surprise they had was the big discrepancy in tanks' losses. They expected UKR tanks to rush forward and die gloriously. Because only cowards do not rush forward to meet the enemy.

[JonS]

16 hours ago, paxromana said:

"The Bomber will always get through' ... Douhet

Stanley Baldwin

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_bomber_will_always_get_through

[Grigb]

23 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

This is one reason why Russia is so frustrating to study from a Western perspective.  We're used to there being maybe only 2, possibly 3, competing narratives for something like this.  In Russia it seems one starts with 3 and goes up from there.  Any one of these explanations could be true as each one of them seems plausible.  Though personally I think if Aksenov says something then we can rule that particular explanation out as false.  His reputation does precede him

Steve

Sniffing the tea leaves I would say RU Nats narrative is correct - Z soldier was beaten by young Tatars. But what is interesting is the cover up - it would be easier to throw three youngsters under the bus. But we have a very serious cover up. We are watching the government of Crimea including non-Tatar Aksenov literally spitting into RU Nats face for the sake of local Tatars. 

The situation in Crimea is far from calm. Even loyal to RU Tatars are in fact truly angry at RU. That's why hotheaded youngsters are trying to do what they can do. And RU officials are trying to suppress everything they can to hide the extent of Tatars discontent.

[Battlefront.com]

8 minutes ago, Grigb said:

RU citizens do try to make sens out of RU propaganda but... It works like this. Let's say RU military power is 4. US military power is 50. RU propaganda claims RU military power is 80. RU citizens look at RU propaganda and divide it by 2. They get 40, so for them RU is almost equal to US. We are the second most powerful country in the world!

This is the core strategy of RU propaganda. It lies so much that an ordinary observer is duped even after adjusting for propaganda. 

Yes, just like haggling with a street merchant.  The merchant offers 100, you offer 50, he offers 90, you offer 60.  Eventually you come to 75 and feel good abut it.  However, the merchant would have been happy with 40

8 minutes ago, Grigb said:

While NLAW did not register with them at all (Why do you need so complicated and expensive version of RPG? 8 RPGs are better than 1 NLAW!) Javelin already had a reputation with RU.  Despite all public BS Javelin scared them a lot. That's why they had to put those cope cages to calm tank crews somewhat.

Thank you for confirming my thinking about this.  Yes, the Javelin was "built into" the nationalist's concept of the war before it started.  They knew what it could do and they knew Ukraine had them.  So mentally it seems they were ready for them and therefore it didn't affect their view of the war when the weapons did what they knew they would.  Though they did come up with all kinds of fun things like it takes several Javelins to hit one Russian vehicle so this is a great way to bankrupt the US

The fear of Javelin was well know for the last few years because very senior Russian officials, including Shoigu, mentioned it by name.  You don't include a tactical weapon system in an otherwise strategic context unless you believe it has strategic implications.

8 minutes ago, Grigb said:

Given the already combustible reputation of RU tanks Nats did expect RU tanks to go kaboom. The only surprise they had was the big discrepancy in tanks' losses. They expected UKR tanks to rush forward and die gloriously. Because only cowards do not rush forward to meet the enemy.

Do you think they've fully come to grips with how incompetently led the Russian tactical forces are?  I'm sure Girkin has that covered, but what about the rest? 

Steve

[Haiduk]

8 hours ago, DesertFox said:

I really wonder why UKR hasn´t started to blow up the railheads already and all lines leading into UKR territory from the east.

Russians involved three raiway troops brigades in Ukraine. They can relatively quickly restore railways - HIMARS or Tochka-U can wipe out one or two sections of rails. This is nothing - just wasting of missiles. 

Edited July 12, 2022 by Haiduk