How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Haiduk]

First visual confirmed TLGM usage from captured BMP-3

 

[billbindc]

 

 

[Huba]

11 minutes ago, akd said:

Just checked my watch and it’s HIMARS o’clock again:

Said to be near Nova Kahkovka dam.

Mad photo:

[dan/california]

2 minutes ago, Huba said:

Mad photo:

Burn baby burn. There may be some difficulty in reinforcing Kherson proper. Which my previous post implies might be relevant.

[Vergeltungswaffe]

2 hours ago, Lethaface said:

Because they wear flip flops inside

Yeah, I was thinking it's a pretty sweet gig to whack russians with slides on.

[Huba]

1 minute ago, Vergeltungswaffe said:

Yeah, I was thinking it's a pretty sweet gig to whack russians with slides on.

Wearing shoes indoors is considered barbaric in Eastern Europe, war is not an excuse.

Edit : 1000th post, woo hoo!

Edited July 11, 2022 by Huba

[Haiduk]

Nova Kakhovka now. Video/sound of huge explosion from the town

 

 

Edited July 11, 2022 by Haiduk

[Grigb]

Girkin just mentioned that very close to kremlin propagandists previously stated that UKR have time to accept RU ultimatum until 15 of July [sorry, I did not go that deep into the sewers]. So, there is a chance that indeed on Friday RU will declare war. 

On other hand RU is a RU and pro-kremlin propagandists are garbage. 

Meanwhile civilian "Girkin" (Nesmyan) writes opinion on RU trajectory (most important bits) are below. As usual it is an opinion and take it with grain of salt.

• Putin governance system exists in permanent crisis state
• It cannot be fixed, developed, or modernized
• Collapse is likely scenario
• Collapse most likely will not be peaceful
• RU gov is trying to deny any public discussion of worst-case scenario. It will lead to an increased number of casualties as RU public will not be ready to deal with it
• Since 2019 prospect of getting back to normal (for RU) state of 2019 is no longer possible. There are no more good ways out. Only bad and very bad.

Quote

Here we need to understand that the option of a post-Putin future, proceeding from the scenario of the collapse of the country, is actually quite likely. The country is really undermined, its stability is in a negative zone, and the only violence and terror are holding it together. The staples [RU spiritual staples is RU propaganda meme - RU people are superior to other nations (especially US) due to cultural and spiritual staples], frankly, are so-so. The system — and economic, and political, and management — everything is focused on existence exclusively in one state — a state of permanent crisis, when one local catastrophe replaces another [Putin distracts public attention from a problem by doing something somewhere else, but due to incompetence and corruption he eventually makes another problems there. So, then he tries to distract public attention from that problem and so on]. In such conditions, it makes no sense to talk about reforms, development and moving forward. Immediately, as soon as the pressure of violence is removed, a rollback will occur, and the undermined stability of the system will not stand. No illusions are needed — the plot of the collapse is extremely likely...

And, apparently, there will be no peaceful disintegration (relatively peaceful), as happened with the USSR. The only question is which regions will be affected by extreme processes, and in which it will be relatively painless...

The bad thing is that in Russia itself this plot is taboo. We are brought to a situation where everything will happen suddenly. Namely, surprise will produce most of the victims (including in the literal sense of the word), who psychologically will not be ready for a sudden change in the situation...

I have written and said many times that since 2019, Russia has entered a state of catastrophe, which is characterized by the impossibility of going back to before the crisis, but also by the fact that there is no space for solutions in the catastrophe. Any decision only brings it closer. There are no good ones anymore, there are only bad ones and very bad ones. The choice, frankly, is so-so. And it's good that there is at least choice. It's going to get bad when he's gone, too.

 

[Huba]

And one more video, Russians snuffing it make the guys really happy. It seriously looks like a tactical nuke:

And this guy :

 

Edited July 11, 2022 by Huba

[Harmon Rabb]

10 minutes ago, Huba said:

Mad photo:

Nice photo, at first glance I thought it was an oil painting.

[danfrodo]

RU is in an interesting position in Kherson area.  If they reinforce, anything they put there might be cut off just by UKR dropping the bridge.  If they don't reinforce, looks like they'll lose the area.  Good times.  And anything they do choose to move over there weakens some other nearby sector, like Melitopol axis.  I actually hope Putin says to hold Kherson at all costs and to reinforce.  And then UKR pushes S toward Melitopol and then W and cuts off the whole area.  I want lots of booty & prisoners.  

[Huba]

And more good news. It isn't about actual Ukrainian port though, but Romanian port in Galati in the mouth of Danube. Still an important development, as it connected with UA by broad gauge railway, both through Moldova, and directly through Zatoka bridge (the one Russians tried to destroy with cruise missiles a while ago).

 

[Haiduk]

8 minutes ago, Grigb said:

Girkin just mentioned that very close to kremlin propagandists previously stated that UKR have time to accept RU ultimatum until 15 of July [sorry, I did not go that deep into the sewers]. So, there is a chance that indeed on Friday RU will declare war. 

I read an opinion this can be tied not with ultimatum to Ukraine (there is no any info about this), but with the answer to Lithuania, which yesterday finally closed railway pass to Kaliningrad according to sanctions despite on Germany pressure. Russians offered "tough answer" on the eve, so maybe this is it.  

[Harmon Rabb]

The new era of Polish-Ukrainian friendship continues.

[Huba]

Just now, Haiduk said:

I read an opinion this can be tied not with ultimatum to Ukraine (there is no any info about this), but with the answer to Lithuania, which yesterday finally closed railway pass to Kaliningrad according to sanctions despite on Germany pressure. Russians offered "tough answer" on the eve, so maybe this is it.  

I read that Lithuania is under heaviest cyberattack since ever as of today, affecting state energy grid company. They will pull through of course. There isn't much they could do on top of it, maybe mess with the grid a bit more as Baltics are still integrated with Russia. I bet there's a contingency plan for that eventuality in place though.

Article I linked stated that it is about fast-tracking some laws that are needed, connected to war. We shall see, but they have to do something in face of this humiliation they are suffering right now.

[Haiduk]

4 minutes ago, Huba said:

And more good news. It isn't about actual Ukrainian port though, but Romanian port in Galati in the mouth of Danube. Still an important development, as it connected with UA by broad gauge railway, both through Moldova, and directly through Zatoka bridge (the one Russians tried to destroy with cruise missiles a while ago).

 

It's about Danube UKR ports Reni and Izmaiil too. Zatoka bridge likely damaged, because it cought serveral direct and close hits, but maybe it already repaired. 

[Grigb]

4 minutes ago, Haiduk said:

I read an opinion this can be tied not with ultimatum to Ukraine (there is no any info about this), but with the answer to Lithuania, which yesterday finally closed railway pass to Kaliningrad according to sanctions despite on Germany pressure. Russians offered "tough answer" on the eve, so maybe this is it.  

Could be. The ultimate statement surprised me. While I do not go that deep, still most likely I would catch it indirectly.  

[Battlefront.com]

The following is a quote from Girkin as translated by Grigb:

20 minutes ago, Grigb said:

I have written and said many times that since 2019, Russia has entered a state of catastrophe, which is characterized by the impossibility of going back to before the crisis, but also by the fact that there is no space for solutions in the catastrophe.

Grigb, what significance is there to 2019?  I vaguely remember reading something from Girkin about this date, but I can't remember what.  Economic decline?

In any case, it seems that Girkin and I agree on two things:

1. Russia can't fight a long war and is likely to see a military collapse within 6 months.  I presume that Girkin, like me, thinks that full mobilization could change the equation if there isn't a revolution in response.
2. The Russian Federation is going to disintegrate violently sooner rather than later.  With or without mobilization.

It is very interesting to me that this guy has such a negative view of the entire Russian state, especially given that he's an enthusiastic supporter of autocracy.

Steve

[Battlefront.com]

3 minutes ago, Grigb said:

Could be. The ultimate statement surprised me. While I do not go that deep, still most likely I would catch it indirectly.  

Yeah, I think if the ultimatum was aimed at Ukraine we'd all know about it.  Zelensky would be using it to press for more weapons at the very least.  So the RUMINT of a Russian response coming this Friday does seem to be aimed at Lithuania.

Steve

[Huba]

4 minutes ago, Harmon Rabb said:

The new era of Polish-Ukrainian friendship continues.

To put it into perspective, today is a remembrance day of Volhynia Massacre, which stains PL - UA relations to this day and is routinely used by RU propaganda to sow hatred. This year, for the first time UA ambassador laid flowers at the monument of the victims, which is a very important gesture. And Duda's visit in Kyiv today is no accident of course. I didn't follow it closely, but in my opinion it fell a bit short - I'd love to hear "we forgive, and ask for forgiveness", from both sides ( Poles paid Ukrainians back in kind during "Akcja Wisła"). Anyway, it is important that we're trying to leave it behind, it might take some more time though.

[Haiduk]

"The second army of the world" is runnig out of military UAVs

 

[Battlefront.com]

Report that Iran is sending drones to Russia.  I'm wondering how many and how effective they are, given sanctions on Iran:

https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/3553782-white-house-iran-preparing-to-send-russia-drones-for-ukraine-war/

Dang!  Ninja'd by Haiduk

Steve

[Grigb]

1 minute ago, Battlefront.com said:

The following is a quote from Girkin as translated by Grigb:

Grigb, what significance is there to 2019?  I vaguely remember reading something from Girkin about this date, but I can't remember what.  Economic decline?

As far as I understood he based it on his assessment of the overall RU state (so it was not a single event but rather a combination of trends). It was the year when, according to him, stability of the system, including infrastructure, reached an end. 

[Beleg85]

https://twitter.com/IntelCrab/status/1546593544206524416

"TASS now confirming the warehouse strike in Nova Kakhovka. Boxes of potassium nitrate were targeted, among other things. There are casualties."

Ok, that explains big boom. Still, I hope it is not some internal RU work connected to their threats. They need to escalate (if they still can) to find some solution to this HIMARS danger, cannot simply leave it like that.

13 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

In any case, it seems that Girkin and I agree on two things:

1. Russia can't fight a long war and is likely to see a military collapse within 6 months.  I presume that Girkin, like me, thinks that full mobilization could change the equation if there isn't a revolution in response.
2. The Russian Federation is going to disintegrate violently sooner rather than later.  With or without mobilization.

It is very interesting to me that this guy has such a negative view of the entire Russian state, especially given that he's an enthusiastic supporter of autocracy.

Mobilizing only now, after 4 months of losses and setbacks, would be ironic at least and is probably more dangerous than 3 months ago.

Also, translation of Girkin by Dymitri (this time before Grigb, but he is much less rich in contexts)

https://twitter.com/mdmitri91/status/1546590128881147907/photo/1

Edited July 11, 2022 by Beleg85

[Battlefront.com]

Just now, Grigb said:

As far as I understood he based it on his assessment of the overall RU state (so it was not a single event but rather a combination of trends). It was the year when, according to him, stability of the system, including infrastructure, reached an end. 

Thanks, that's what I remembered.  Which is to say that 2019 isn't a date of significance other than that's the one Girkin picked as the "point of no return" for the Russian state.  I remember him focusing on the economic aspects, which were all quite dire due to long term incompetence and corruption plus sanctions.

Steve