How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?

[Calamine Waffles]

5 minutes ago, Huba said:

That's going to be a hard nut to crack indeed. Never in post WW2 history has any Western country reincorporated a rebellious province by force (discounting various colonial adventures, not really applicable here) - how do you go about that really? There's got to be some nastiness involved, no way around it I'm afraid  Creating situations like this was Russia's MO for the last 30 years, that's one more reason to hate them.

I guess you could do an actual fair referendum with mandatory participation from the Crimea population. Or you can demilitarize Crimea and make it neutral territory. Other than that, not many options.

[DMS]

16 hours ago, Haiduk said:

Looking at resistance/SOF actions in Melitopol, Kherson, Luhansk oblast, we will not stop even before phisical elmination of collaborants during occupation and in liibaration process, those who now became "city mayors", "oblast administrations", "police" etc. Voices of HRW will be no more interest. I hope all, who met occupants will have a time to leave with them to their beloved Russia. All other must be condemned according to passed law about collaborationiosm. After 2014 almost all officials, those, who agitate for LDPR and stayed on UKR-controlled territories, were not punished and this also played own role in significant pro-Russian moods even on Ukrainian-controlled part of Donbas. 

Russians, who came to Crimea for living will go away. Some of them wrote before a war, that even if UKR take back Crimea it will be forced to give them UKR citizenship (and all cherry on tops, like visa-free trips), because in other case this will be violation of human rights. No-o-oo, pals. Don't even dare to dream about this. Also we must to establish "non-citizen" passports like in Baltic states. All who was convicted in unloyality to Ukraine or was condemned for collaborationism must receive such passport.

It's amazing that you openly admit that plans. And that western public "buy" it. "Pushing out of that Russian replacers"!  

[_Morpheus_]

28 minutes ago, DMS said:

It's amazing that you openly admit that plans. And that western public "buy" it. "Pushing out of that Russian replacers"!  

Honestly, I don't understand why you are surprised. Russia officially says that they run a special (genocide) operation in Ukraine and the goal is to denationalize/kill the Ukrainian nation. From the latest ones:


how Ukrainians should react on such plans?

Edited June 14, 2022 by _Morpheus_

[Huba]

28 minutes ago, DMS said:

It's amazing that you openly admit that plans. And that western public "buy" it. "Pushing out of that Russian replacers"!  

What do you expect would happen? These people are not UA citizens, and came to UA territory without a valid visa. Any decisions regarding property sale/ transfers done by illegal authorities are by definition not binding. Crappy situation I admit, but it's all Uncle Vova's fault, sue him for reimbursement or something.

[chuckdyke]

A reminder of how the world voted. No ifs or buts. We just can't do business with putin's Russia. 

[Huba]

Opposed crossing gone wrong  fix for Steve  Attempt is already geolocated (see the thread), and again was tried in quite an obvious spot. It's really hard to be worried about Ukrainian lines along the river at this point, Russians are continuously humiliating themselves...

 

 

Edited June 14, 2022 by Huba

[Haiduk]

40 minutes ago, DMS said:

It's amazing that you openly admit that plans.

Collective guilt. Collaborationism. Sudetes/Kaliningrad 1945, nothing new. 

Edited June 14, 2022 by Haiduk

[Calamine Waffles]

Perhaps it would be cause to complain if the Ukrainians decided to start putting bullets in the back of the head of every military-age male in Crimea like the Russians did in Bucha and other places?

What they are proposing for Crimea is no different to evicting illegal squatters. Maybe they could offer a pathway to Ukrainian residency as an alternative as well if the people already there want to stay.

Edited June 14, 2022 by Calamine Waffles

[DMS]

7 minutes ago, Huba said:

What do you expect would happen? These people are not UA citizens, and came to UA territory without a valid visa.

No, I didn't mean Russian citizens. But Haiduk already answered, I see. Sudetes, Volhynia. Very progressive.

[DMS]

1 minute ago, Calamine Waffles said:

What they are proposing for Crimea is no different to evicting illegal squatters. Maybe they could offer a pathway to Ukrainian residency as an alternative as well if the people already there want to stay.

No, he says about "collaborators".

[Huba]

A really great article about France's position during the war, concentrating mostly on the failures of Macron's mediation attempts. A little excerpt to give you a taste:

Quote

And Macron is making concessions, not least by removing Putin’s humiliation from the table. This is an especially damaging negotiating position because Putin’s humiliation is a condition that can only be defined by Putin. If the West will not humiliate Putin in any negotiation, then all Putin must do to collapse talks or win further concessions is to declare that he finds Western proposals ‘humiliating’. Macron is therefore establishing a framework for negotiations that structurally favour Russia from the outset.

https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/macron-must-avoid-immolation-french-influence

[Calamine Waffles]

6 minutes ago, DMS said:

No, he says about "collaborators".

Well, the same thing happened in Western Europe after Nazi Germany was cleared out of the occupied countries. Ideally one would bring these collaborators to trial for treason, but we will see. It would not be a good look for the Ukrainians to the rest of the world, but I can't say I blame them for having strong emotions about this after all that has happened.

[Huba]

Just now, Calamine Waffles said:

Well, the same thing happened in Western Europe after Nazi Germany was cleared out of the occupied countries. Ideally one would bring these collaborators to trial for treason, but we will see. It would not be a good look for the Ukrainians to the rest of the world, but I can't say I blame them for having strong emotions about this after all that has happened.

Treason is quite a valid reason to put a person on trial and jail the hell out of him. I'm pretty sure UA will be very wary not to allow lynching or summary "execution of justice" incidents, there's nothing to gain and everything to lose from it. Plus as was mentioned previously, people with stained conscience will mostly run to Russia.

[Calamine Waffles]

I think almost definitely officials who openly collaborate and assist the Russians in occupation of Ukrainian territories will be put on trial or flee to Russia after the Russian forces are expelled.

When it comes to, say, Oleg who posted Russian propaganda on his Facebook or VK? Well, I don't know how they will handle it.

[DMS]

8 minutes ago, Calamine Waffles said:

Ideally one would bring these collaborators to trial for treason, but we will see

4 minutes ago, Huba said:

Treason is quite a valid reason to put a person on trial and jail the hell out of him

"Collective guilt" and trial? 100 thousands of trials, 200 thousands? Well, ok. 

[Zeleban]

1 hour ago, DMS said:

Удивительно, что ты открыто признаешься в этих планах. И что западная публика на это «покупается». "Выталкивание русских заменителей"!  

Whose plans does he voice? Whose plans does he voice? Hayduk is privy to the plans of the country's leadership? Please read more

[Haiduk]

Reportage of Frecnh journalist, showing a work of UAV crew and single 2A65 howitzer of 45th arty brigade of Reserve corps. 

Interesting, that this is probably first visual confirmation of work by single guns. Recently on LostArmor appeared such post about this:

Translation:

It's been asked here many times about the reasons of low effectiveness of our counter-battery fire. According to feedbacks from the fields this is due to two factors. The first, this is dispersal of guns - our arty recon assets can detect simultainously only 2-3 targets [means firing units], but Ukies conduct a fire with 1-2 guns from different places simultainously, so their battery turned out in 6 targets.  The second, is their exellent communication systems and special artillery PADs, from which we have fury envy. Its allows them do not spend time for neсessary calculations (like Kravchenko tables and other devil toys), but just pin a point, where you are standing, where to pour on [means to fire] and with what ammunition and the software will do all itself. Then they just cry on radio between themselves and begin to fire. Thus, they can work quickly on one target  from different positions, so if hreturn fire has time to come on them, then not to all. We don't have such PADs, the  inertia of thinking interferes as well as State Classified Information Protection  Service, they say theese devices uncertified. unprotected and other, and other. But nothing technically difficult in it.  

[Calamine Waffles]

8 minutes ago, DMS said:

"Collective guilt" and trial? 100 thousands of trials, 200 thousands? Well, ok. 

Despite what Haiduk may wish, somehow I don't think the Ukrainian government will want to condone or allow mass lynchings or extrajudicial executions of collaborators.

After all, in Russia they flat out have news media outlets and personalities who call for nuclear war with the West, but that doesn't mean that Putin is going to follow them.

[Grigb]

1 hour ago, DMS said:

It's amazing that you openly admit that plans. And that western public "buy" it. "Pushing out of that Russian replacers"!  

Hello, Misha! Glad to see you again! Are you going to rant about Battlefront morally corrupted westerners on your blog again? Just asking.

Regarding your usual wild imagination let me remind you that expelling illegal aliens is not a crime.

Do You know what constitutes a major crime against humanity? You know like Nazi style crime with Nurnberg tribunal?  Russian torture and execution chambers set up in LDNR to pacify and russify local Ukrainians. 

We talked about it back then but for some reason you seems to be uninterested in this topic. Wonder why?

 

 

[The_Capt]

37 minutes ago, DMS said:

"Collective guilt" and trial? 100 thousands of trials, 200 thousands? Well, ok. 

200k is pretty restrained given history in the neighbourhood.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Population_transfer_in_the_Soviet_Union

If Ukraine is smart, and I strongly suspect they will be - see membership in EU/NATO - collaboration and treason will be handled under a fair and transparent legal process (e.g. was collaboration forced?)…likely one much more rational than the actions of some others, or those they have supported.

 

[Grigb]

1 hour ago, DMS said:

No, he says about "collaborators".

Let me remind you that collaboration with an enemy is a high treason. It is profoundly serious crime punishable by death in wartime.

What exactly you do not like? You are literally killing traitors under peacetime conditions but then you come here and claim how bad for Ukrainians to punish collaborators!  Do you feel hypocrisy here? I know you do not, that's rhetorical question.

[Grigb]

45 minutes ago, DMS said:

"Collective guilt" and trial? 100 thousands of trials, 200 thousands? Well, ok. 

Misha, as I said numerous times reality is different from your imagination. Let look at UK (just 1.5 times bigger then Ukraine)

Quote

Criminal courts In 2020, magistrates’ courts in England and Wales received 1.13 million cases and disposed of 1.04 million. Of the cases received, 74% were for summary offences or breaches, which can be resolved in a magistrates’ court without the need for a trial. Most of the remaining cases (258,000 or 23%) were triable-either-way, meaning they could proceed to trial at the Crown court.

Around 3% (29,000) were initial hearings for indictable offences which can only be resolved by trial at the Crown court. In the same year, Crown courts received 97,000 cases and disposed of 78,000. Two thirds (65%) of cases received were trials, 30% were cases sent from the magistrates’ court for sentencing, and 5% were cases of appeals against decisions in the magistrates’ court.

Both the magistrates’ and Crown court have an ongoing backlog of cases, known as outstanding cases. At the end of March 2021, there were 395,000 outstanding cases in magistrates’ courts, slightly up on the number a year previously but down from the mid-2020 peak of 422,000 cases. 

It will take several years and will require international help. But it is not as impossible as you imply.

[Battlefront.com]

44 minutes ago, DMS said:

"Collective guilt" and trial? 100 thousands of trials, 200 thousands? Well, ok. 

No, collaborators.  Under Ukrainian law these people are committing crimes that all civilized nations, and even Russia, agrees are crimes.  Because they are doing these crimes of their own free will, they should be punished for their actions.

If you think this is bad, by comparison Russia is currently using its traditional means of occupying which is murdering anybody that they think MIGHT cause the problems (or might object to being raped or robbed), mass forced deportations, and kidnapping of children to be brought up by Russians far away from their native lands.  Plus the kinda new one Putin's regime came up with, which is  to take normal is for every-day citizens to be kidnapped and sent to another part of the country and used as bargaining chips. 

Now, if Ukraine was saying it would start behaving like Russia already is, well... then you might have a point to make.  The West is decidedly against this sort of behavior, not holding people accountable to the laws of ones land.

There won't be that many to hold accountable for all of the newly occupied eastern Ukraine relative to the total population.  The number will likely be in the thousands.  For Donbas and Crimea, a more tricky question because Russia has had 8 years of illegal occupation and convincing people that the status quo would never change.  I think Ukraine will set a different standard for the regions and concentrate only on those who engaged in more serious criminal activity.  10s of thousands excluding the DLPR fighters.

Steve

[Butschi]

4 minutes ago, Battlefront.com said:

There won't be that many to hold accountable for all of the newly occupied eastern Ukraine relative to the total population.  The number will likely be in the thousands.  For Donbas and Crimea, a more tricky question because Russia has had 8 years of illegal occupation and convincing people that the status quo would never change.  I think Ukraine will set a different standard for the regions and concentrate only on those who engaged in more serious criminal activity.  10s of thousands excluding the DLPR fighters.

I think Ukraine would be well advised to publicly announce something along the lines of DLPR leaders and ther henchmen will be trialed (fairly) but fighters (who have not commited war crimes) will be pardoned if they surrender. From our (German) history one can learn that the best way to make sure people fight until death is to let them fear what may happen to them if taken alive or after a general surrender. (That's way Germans were much more willing to surrender on the western front than in the east).

[Billy Ringo]

On multiple occasions I've tried to find the % of Russian military by region both serving and KIA/WIA and can't find it.  I've seen numerous articles stating that Russian casualties are significantly higher for ethnic minorities and remote regions than that from more populated and progressive Western areas.   But nothing definitive.

From a population perspective, my visual reference of Western Russia consists of:

Region    Population, ml.    %of Population           

Northwest     13.6ml     9.5%

Central          38ml       26.4%

Volga          30ml        20.8%

South          16ml        11%

North Cauc.    9.5ml      6.6%

Total Western Russia    107 ml   74.4% of total population.  Total Russian population 144ml.

An assumption on my part, wrong or right, would be that most residents of these regions would likely be more progressive and likely to have more access to Western media.  Thus, their opinions on the Russian operations would be much different than that of Central or Eastern Russia.

It's one thing to stay quiet and go about one's business when/if the bulk of Russian forces are coming from far away places.  But to leverage full Russian mobilization would require the forced conscription of these territories which might then be the tipping point for the bulk of the population to become more vocal and disruptive.   Basically say, no mas.

If this assumption is only partly accurate, would this make the population base for potentially available Russian conscripts more like 35-45 ml. instead of 144ml?    Are body bags of Russian soldiers being sent with frequency back to Moscow or St. Petersburg?  From what I'm seeing--the answer is no. 

Would welcome the thoughts/opinions of those with a much greater and expanded knowledge of Russian culture and demographics.  Thanks in advance.