Huba

About yesterday assault of Avdiivka. 
There are rumors Putin yesterday visited HQ of SMO in Rostov and generals decided to make him a "gift" with massive assault of Avdiivka, which had to break UKR defense, but...
UKR servicemen and TGs claims this was heaviest assault of the city, which by number of involved vehciles even spat out the assault of Oct 10. Then Russians used many infantry, supported with heavy aviation and artilelry trikes and armor. In this time they attacked very strong with mass of armor in three directions on northern flank. Their primary objective was the slag heap again. 
Russian armored columns had from 5 to 30 vehicles! 
Also a difference with previous assault - in this time Russians reportedly attacked most;y with regular units with support of DPR, when at Oct 10 main forces of attacks were Shtorm Z and DPR units with some suport of Russian regulars
Here is known episode with BTR column from other point of view  - in elimination of this attack participated at least elements of four units - 1st tank brigade, 3rd SOF regiment, 116th TD brigade and some artilelry unit.
I suppose BTRs are belonged to 15th motor-rifle "peacemaking" brigade of 2nd CAA, Central millitary district, which was moved here from Svatove direction together with 21st motor-rifle brigade. And both were deployed on northern flank. 15th one of few motor-rifle brigades, armed with BTRs, not BMPs 
For yestrday GS isuued these crazy numbers - of course this is exaggregation, but level of Russian losses for Oct 19 was really colossal
By the news of last hours, Russians continue desperate attacks not counting with losses. Reportedly they had some success near slag heap and it in grey zone now. Putin needs a victory to 4th of November - Day of National unity. 

Who could have thought attacking a NATO gas pipeline would lead to getting ATACMSed. 
Shocking turn of events.

Claims that these submunition fragments were found at Berdyansk airfield, which would mean ATACMS if true.
 
 

Murica vibes 100%.😎  Yeah, why not three?
But seriously it is interesting how much military help USA is willing to give to Israel in current situation. Beside guarding aganst Iran with navy/airforce there is probably not that much material assistance that Israel would need against Hamas alone. Maybe some quality bunker-buster munitions, drones and similar top-shelf stuff; only military resource that could seriously compete with Ukrainian demand are perhaps AA assets.
It also seems Blinken managed to tame Netanyahu for a week or so (I don't believe weather explanation), so heads could cool off and at least some basic limitation of fighting field could be done. Subsequently, Ukrainian war will likely take precedence over help to Middle East, unless somethng bery bad happens. I can bet Putin counted for more.

In today's interview with GUR "Artan" unit fighter "Shaman" and C.Budanov, chief of GUR they in first time confirmed that GUR special forces tried three times to recapture Enerhodar nuclear plant, but all attempts failed. 
In first time only several dozens of GUR fighters landed on oppose bank of Dnipro, but after half day of fight they were forced to reterat
In second and third time already several hundreds of GUR forces tried to establish bridgehead to expand it and give opportunity to move there mechanized units to liberate the plant and city. In last attempt fighters of Foreign Legion participated, particularly New Zelanders, who had training to be in the water long time. During the third attempt Russians brought tanks directly to the river and UKR troops were forced to withdraw again.
C.Budanov pointed out all operations failed because of lack of experiense and fast interaction in such operations, also lack of artillery support and lack of proper control.
But even these failed operations thwarted intentions of Russia to plug nuclear plant in Russian power grid. Also these landings give experience, which later was used during seizing of gas rigs in Black Sea and landing on Tarhankut cape. 
 

Guess I'm a criminal then. My belief that people who work and create wealth deserve the fruits of their labor, and democratic say over what is done with surplus is truly the worst crime of all. Second in heinousness to the reasonable conclusion that the current system, like all preceding systems, is inherently doomed and will give way to new forms of organization and modes of production to resolve its contradictions. 
I'm in the trotskyist corner that actively supports Ukraine's self determination, and we regularly oppose  stalinists who make no distinction between Putin 's war on "global homo" and the "woke west" and an imagined utopia under Stalin and his bureaucracy, and defend them both.  Horrible men making hard times for the good, as I said before.

I’m going to make an argument that the far left and (even nuttier, and more expansive) far right are the natural consequence of the economic malaise the US has seen for the middle class and lower in the last two decades, along with opoid crisis and the forever wars in the Middle East.
30 years ago a teacher could buy a house in a West Coast city. Now it requires a big tech salary to have any chance at even a ****ty house. The two income trap is real, along with massive real estate speculation and underbuilding and all sort of other problems that really hurt the middle class. And now in many cities we have functionally no law enforcement, and many other problems.
There’s a lot of anger, and for a while that was chanelled at people who rightfully shoulder some blame (Occupy Wall Street), but as a joke goes identity politics was introduced so the plebs would go back to fighting amongst themselves instead of joining together for a common cause.
This anger is now properly manifested (from the perspective of our betters) as hating whatever the opposite side likes. Ukraine, transgender, guns, racism, whatever. People on both sides latch onto a cause very hard, as a religious thing almost. We can complain the Biden is not doing enough now, but before the war Biden was trying very hard to warn people what was happening; planes of ammo + weapons were being shipped over etc. And the far right ignores that or twists it into some insanity.
At my previous job I worked directly with no less than three (3) trans furries, one of whom was a major antifa person, and it’s like you aren’t even from here while I grew up here, you know how not racist this city is? Not all. Why do you think there are nazis everywhere (for some definition of nazi)? This person had latched onto the idea that there are nazis in America, and this is the great cultural struggle of the left to defeat them. Very smart and nice otherwise though.
 
People forget how much support Bernie had from people on the right. 

damn you.  Damn you, Mitch McConnell.  You keep doing things for Ukraine that force me to say "thank you Senator McConnell" to a person I completely loath.  But I mean it.  THANK YOU SEN MCCONNELL.

When I was in Korea in 2019 my battalion's (an intelligence unit) retention NCO was a former infantry Staff Sergeant. In the US Army retention is an actual MOS that you can reclass to at a certain point in your career and is a pretty cushy gig as far as I know. Anyways, I was talking to him one day and I asked how he preferred doing retention in an intel unit over being an infantryman. He told me that he much preferred not going to the field all the time or the random busy work of a garrison maneuver unit but that he really missed shooting at people. I, who the closest I have been to combat was 3 weeks at a ROKA base on the DMZ, expressed surprise and a little concern at that statement. He said "dude, it's hard to explain but getting in a firefight and shooting at people is fun as s**t." Of course, counter-insurgency in Afghanistan is an entirely different beast than a full-on LSCO fight against Russia.

I pick number three, with a dump truck full of salt down the hole afterwards.
All the West wanted was to ignore Russia and make money, as you eloquently point out the RUSSIANS were making good money, and winning some small victories they could propagandize about. For reasons that remain incomprehensible on some level, they gambled all of that and lost. We are all far less well off for Putin's little three day SMO adventure, but come he!! or high water Russia is going to be a lot sorrier than the rest of us. Sorry enough to stay educated on being sorry for three or four generations.

"White wolf" unit of SBU Alfa special forces has struck next AD radar on Russian territory. If in previous time they hit "Kasta" radar, now they hit 55Zh6U "Nebo-U" 3-coordinate meter range radar complex of air defense forces. Antenna, equipment cabin and radar remote control vehicle were struck by drones
"Nebo-U" was adopted in 1995 and first serial radars went to service in 2011. Now this radar is on armament of AD units of Western and Central military districts. Radar allows to detect "fighter" type target on altitude 500 m - up to 70 km and on altitude 20 000 m on 400 km in 360 degrees zone 
  

Yes, Kremlin signals similar readiness to "talks" for half a year at least, in its own language. Ongoing visit of Stoltenberg, French and British MoD's can be not coincidental in this context, though; they come in numbers to Kyiv so issue is probably important. But it is probably more to be connected to ATACM's and military plans for autumn/winter rather than probe of eventual Ukrainian willingness to negotaiate anything, as some  analysts suggest.
 

Missile diving into BSF HQ caught on camera:
 

One way to look at it is to consider what the Russians get out of the Black Sea Fleet:
Roving air defence/radar pickets that are much harder to track down than land-based assets. Strike capability with a much easier avenue of attack on Ukrainian grain exports- whether at sea or in port. As we've seen recently with Poland, forcing Ukraine to seek other means of distributing it's grain can create political friction within supporting international structures. Logistics back-up for the Kerch Bridge. A fleet-in-being: because naval forces can move faster and with less restrictions than land-based forces, Ukraine constantly needs to worry about what the BSF might do and where it might be today. That uses up assets and bandwidth that Ukraine could be using elsewhere, as well as impinging on Ukraine's freedom of action. Remove the Black Sea Fleet and Ukraine should have an easier time striking Russian logistics infrastructure in Crimea (only having to deal with comparatitvely predictable land based air defence (which they've been striking)), which should significantly degrade Russian forces in the south and lube up the counter-offensive.

That's on top the psychological benefits- we all saw the reaction when Ukraine sank Moskva. That wasn't only an important boost for Ukraine, but demonstrated Ukrainian abilities and resolve to the world.

Stuff like that.

Missile diving into BSF HQ caught on camera:
 

Missile diving into BSF HQ caught on camera:
 

Missile diving into BSF HQ caught on camera:
 

...when Tankies....
https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2023/09/poland-ukraine-have-plunged-into-a-full-blown-political-crisis-with-no-end-in-sight.html
https://scheerpost.com/2023/09/16/ukraines-reconstruction-in-blackrocks-hands-gabor-mate-on-explosion-of-antidepressants/
AfterUkraine'sinfrastructureisdestroyedbyNATO'sproxywaragainstRussia,corporationslikeBlackRockandJ.P.MorganplantoworkwithcorruptUkrainianofficialsundermartiallawtoseizethelandandreapbillionsinprofit. 
All your base....

Missile diving into BSF HQ caught on camera:
 

Missile diving into BSF HQ caught on camera:
 

Let’s get our equations and definitions set. “Political rhetoric” equals “Political BS.” Both terms apply to the principle of pandering to a chosen electorate for the sole purpose of Politicians (again, the roots of “politician” are two words, Greek for “many” and ticks that are bold sucking insects) to attain or retain a political office. While I’m sure there are, and have been, some who seek office for altruistic reasons, I can’t find any in the entire political world!

My hot take is that they have sent everything that would move under its own power to the front, and pulled the barrels off of everything that wouldn't. And when those barrels are used up, the next batch is coming from where exactly? This also gives a pretty good estimate of what percentage of one of these outside storage parks is vaguely usable.

Guilty as well. I think it would be a good name for a beer, 'Schadenfreude, best enjoyed silently'

Strikes me as a bit odd to reproach the Poles for getting rid of their old stuff, seeing as that old stuff was the same Soviet era stuff Ukraine was already using. A day after the invasion, if the Polish MoD offered Ukraine 200x Leo 2A6 OR 200x T-72, Ukraine would've been mad to take the Leos. Poland gave what was needed then and there. They also gave the Ukrainians Krabs, so it's not just old junk. Heck, their giving pattern isn't wholly dissimilar to the Dutch. I mean, old *** YPRs, second hand Leo 1A5s and PzH 2000.
So how about everyone calms their tits?