Panserjeger

This one is absolutely worth the time to watch, Dobrev have some very good examples on how corruption and greed have undermined the combat effectiveness of the Russian army prior to the invasion. 

I doubt 700 000 meant as "in the army", more likely this is all force structures - Armed Forces (Ground Forces, Air Forces, Naval Forces, Territorial Defense Command, Air-assault command), SOF + their volunteers, SBU special forces + their volunteers, National Guard, State Border Guard Service. Also very likely special police units like KORD. Or maybe even whole police. I have no clue where to place 700K in current army structure even with Reserve Corps deployed. 
Pre-war picture in artillery was much worse. Because of losses of 2014-2015 and exhausting of barrels life in 2016-2021, the number of artillery was significantly reduced. Mech. or tank brigade had 18 2S1 (3 batteries x 6 barrels), 12 2S3 (3 batteries x 4 barrels) and 12 Grad (3 batteries x 4 launchers). Maybe, when the war started, all "shortened" battalions got additional guns/launchers for 36/18 number, but I don't know.
Number in 17 brigades also not correct. We had 13 "heavy" brigades (tank, mech. and mountain-assault) +1 training center, which can consider as brigade or at least "large BTG". For this 13 brigades we should have 234 122 mm SP-howitzers and per 156 152 mm SP-howitzers and 122 mm MLRS launchers. OK, I will add per 18/12/12 for training center too. 
Next we had 4 "light" motorized infantry brigades, which should have the same brigade artillery group, but 152 mm towed D-20 howitzers insted 2S3. And probably because D-20 was enough quantity, they could have 18 howitzers in battalion. So +72/72/48
One yager infantry brigade. There is few info about it, but it 100 % had battalion of 2S1. +18 122 mm
Next, 4 Air-assault/airborne brigades: 2 battalions of 122 mm howitzers in each (D-30 and 2S1) + MLRS battalion (12 Grad), also one BTG in 80th brigade has own arty battalion (18 D-30), also separate artillery battalion of Air-Assault Command level (12 2S3), So +162/12/48
Next, 2 Marines brigades - each had 18 2S1 and 12 Grad-1. Also at least two separate battalions of theese brigades had own 2S1 batteies. So +48/0/24
National Guard. Among all units there are 5 x 122 mm battalions and one 122 mm battery = 96 x 122 mm (2S1, D-30)
So pre-war ground forces brigade level required 648 x 122 mm, 252 x 152 mm, 288 x 122 mm MLRS
Artillery brigades 5 in Ground Forces and one in Naval Forces. I assume they had reduced 4-barrel batteries too, so we should have 18 x 152 mm battalions (2S19, 2S5, 2A65, 2A36) with 212 barrels and 4 x 203 mm battalions (2S7) with 48 barrels.
MLRS brigades - 3 in Ground Forces and 1 in Naval Forces. Total 6 battalions of 220 mm Uragan per 8 in each = 48 launchers, and 11 battalions of 300 mm Smerch/Vil'kha per 4 in each = 44 launchers
Missile brigade:  4 battalions of Tochka-U = 12...16 launchers
Since the war began, Reserve Corps was depolyed 3 tank, 3 mech., 3 infantry/yager, 2 air-assault and 2 artillery brigades. This is potentially +234 x 122 mm howitzers, at least 108 x 152 mm howitzeres, 120 x 122 mm MLRS and 72 x 152 mm long-range howitzers (2A65)
Territorial defense brigades don't have artillery (except MT-12), looks like some of them received D-20, but this more exception, so I will not count them. 
So, totally we should have:
882 x 122 mm howitzers (147 batteries). I think, they still in service, because a lot of ammunition remained. But Air-assault and marines units probably will be betetr to re-arm on 105 mm caliber (35 batteries). Or to made one battalion on M777 and the second on L118. M777 is light and mobile howitzer, it should be in mobile units, I think, but because of its range, theese howitzers now first of all go to artillery brigades. 
360 x 152 mm howitzers (69 batteries). Or to reach all full-strenght batteries in 6 barrels we should have 486 x 152 mm howitzers. I see M109 or Krab, replacing 2S3/D-20
212 x 152 mm long-range guns/howitzers (53 battreies). Or 318 barrels for full-strength. Caesar, Pz2000 or our perspective Bohdana is our future in this class.
420 x 122 mm Grad-class MLRS (35 batteries). Or 630 launchers for full-strength battalions. I think, Grads can be taken from former Warsaw pact/Aisa/Africa stores. In future we are capable to close this class with own developments.
48 x 220 mm Uragan (6 batteries). This is dead end Soviet MLRS branch. After the war we should say goodbye to it. But Uragans can be substituted with M270 MLRS. 
44 x 300 mm Smerch (11 batteries). M270 ATACMS or HIMARS critically needs to this class! Or at least future modifications of our Vil'kha
16 x ballistic missile launchers. HIMARS ATACMS. Or our Hrim-2 in future.  
Of course for reserve and losses substitution we should have +20-30% more of each class. 
 
 

Caught the BMP by surprise.
No one expects the Spanish Instalaza.

Around 20 Norwegian M109´s (replaced by K9 Thunder) were taken out of storage late April for firing tests, and recently the US confirmed that Norway were sending artillery to Ukraine. When asked by journalists the Defence Department declined to comment on the quantity and type of weapon, but I think it is safe to say that at least 20 M109 are on their way (we had 55 in storage, but not all were operational).
Norway are not announcing weapon shipments anymore, but it is clear that at least 2000 M72 LAWs, 100 Mistral MANPADs and several thousand helmets, vests, uniforms and field rations have been sent. There are also rumours about the NSM (Naval Strike Missile) that is produced by Norway and have been requested by Ukraine, but the government is refusing to comment.

So ... I was thinking the other day ... if only there was a war game that had a lot of the equipment and forces used in the current conflict/special military operation in which you could build maps and stuff ...
Map size 4,800m wide by 3,664m deep
Topo overlay

Satellite overlay

CM overhead ...

Where it is in Ukraine
Chervone Overlay.kmz
A couple of comparisons ...


The Combat Mission Black Sea map file ...
Chervone.btt
Just a map folks so no you can't do a QB on it or play it unless you actually click the editor button and add forces and plans etc.  Will this be a scenario one day ... hopefully.
I was prompted to make it because it looked like a BTG or two were going to roll south towards Barvinkove having rolled into Velyka Komyshuvakha towards the end of April and I though it would be worth seeing how it looked in Combat Mission and whether a scenario or two could be built around it - there's definitely meat there for sure so hopefully I can put something together.  If I do so it will be the subject of a separate thread.

Just going to leave this right here for people to muse on.  No political spin in it, just history:
https://www.history.com/topics/world-war-ii/marshall-plan-1#:~:text=The Marshall Plan%2C also known,Secretary of State George C.
So that is roughly $218B in todays money:
https://www.officialdata.org/1945-CAD-in-2018?amount=1#:~:text=Value of %241 from 1945,cumulative price increase of 1%2C357.74%.
Likely one of the biggest nation building/reconstruction efforts in modern history which led directly to this:
https://policy.trade.ec.europa.eu/eu-trade-relationships-country-and-region/countries-and-regions/united-states_en
But people gotta figure it out for themselves.
 

Interesting map over roaming Russian SIMs in Ukraine.
 

Interesting map over roaming Russian SIMs in Ukraine.
 

Interesting map over roaming Russian SIMs in Ukraine.
 

Interesting map over roaming Russian SIMs in Ukraine.
 

Some of the conversation over the few pages have referenced the former Yugoslavia.  Which brings back... well, not so good memories.
I was a Canadian peacekeeper in Bosnia in latter half of '93.   During the Croatian offensive in the Medak in Sept of '93, I was with the 2 PPCLI when we went into the sh*tstorm to try to stop the ethnic cleansing going on.  The Croatian army attacked our unit during that operation, a thing that the Croatian government denies to this very day.  Despite us photographing the Croatian dead after the battle and collecting their ID, etc.    We had god damn evidence and to this day, the Croatian government position is that they never attacked us.
Part of our job, beside trying to keep the warring factions apart, was to document evidence of ethnic cleansing and I was in charge (I was an officer) of a evidence collection team.  So, literally thousands of photos, videos.  Transcripts of interviews with witnesses and victims.  Six months exposed to that living hell, day after f*n day....
So I had the evidence, because sometimes our official recording devices ran out film or tape and we used our personal recording devices to finish up at a site.
After I got out the military, I found myself sometimes on various military forms about games, such as this one.  Arma forums, military wargame forums... that sort of thing.  And as it happened, I ran into forum members from Croatia and Bosnia Serbs and we would get into it.
Universally, every Croatian or Bosnian Serb forum poster denied what happened there.  And I was called a liar on many occasions for telling them them the truth of that war as I was there and they weren't.  And I have evidence to back up my claims.  No one believed me and if I offered visual proof, they didn't want to see it or they disclaimed it as fake.
I remember a particular Bosnian Serb who was not in the war but we got deep into the weeds discussing what happened during that war.  Deny, deny, deny.  It never happened.  Until videos that the Bosnian Serbs took of them killing civilians and dumping them in mass graves what was recorded by the very soldiers who committed the atrocities surfaced and made it onto their local media and they couldn't deny it any longer.  Those videos were part of the process besides sanctions that resulted in some notable Bosnia Serb / Serbian leaders being turned over to the ICC for prosecution for war crimes, crimes against humanity and genocide.  After the revelation came out, this individual on that forum who I had spent hours engaging with about the culpability of Serbs in the atrocities simply ignored me from that point onwards.  I will never know why.... was it that he discovered that I was right all a long and he was wrong and he was ashamed (as he would have been) or he simply wanted to hang onto his delusion of what narrative he wanted to believe was true and he knew that I would keep chipping away.   
Denial is a powerful thing.   I don't understand why it has such power but it does.  People can dismiss an outright objective reality because to accept the truth is to undermine what they think reality is or should be.   I don't get it and is beyond madding to see the denials in the face of objective reality happen over and over.
Sigh.   I don't know why the hell I rambled on with this.  Maybe it was a story I need to tell to remain sane in light of the same brutality I witnessed back in Bosnia happening in Ukraine now.  Or maybe I still am the greater fool for believing my experiences in Bosnia can be an object lesson to others about holding onto a narrative that is personally comfortable but runs counter to all the real evidence to the contrary.   DMS, I am looking at you....
The truth will come out after all this is over.  At least, I hope it does.  The truth of this war needs to be told and codified so generations that follow can know what really happend.
Now at the end of this and reviewing it, I feel that I should have deleted this or apologize for it.  
I am hitting post. It is my truth.  Let people accept it and learn something from it or ignore it.  I needed to say this for a long time.   
 
 

Take it or Galeev it.
I spent a lot of time with Wallerstein back in uni (also Luttwak and Mearsheimer, but that's a different story).
 
 
(as always, the rest of the thread is thought provoking and informative).
I am of the view that should:
a.  the Russian army suffer a huge and undeniable battlefield defeat that includes their near total expulsion from the areas invaded in Feb, plus the forced (televised) surrender of some large units;
b. that will trigger a Colour Revolution (with a fair bit of shooting, sadly) in Minsk, and the ascent of a Western-facing democratic regime in Belarus, harking back to the traditions of the Novgorod republic.
c.  At that point, I could readily see some of the Russian regions reasserting autonomy, with their own armed forces (private armies with loose official status).  My own picks would be:
(1) Kuban, the Russian 'sunbelt'. Krasnodar is the third largest city and an export hub. In the event Crimea does not rejoin Ukraine postwar, it would align itself with this region. The commercial culture there seems to have a more 'Southern European' feel to it (define that how you like, but it doesn't bode at all well for Moscow holding on to it).
(2) The old Novgorod republic -- the Volkhov lake country east of the Baltics that culturally has a lot in common with the Balts, perhaps more than with the 'Mosculs'....
(3) Most painful of all for Moscow, the Kursk-Bryansk-Belgorod-middle Volga heartland region could stand up and demand rights to form commercial ties across its western frontiers!  Would VDV units largely home based in Tula-Ryazan obey orders to suppress brother Russians in these oblasts? Or join them?
(4) Predictably, everything east and south of the Urals other than a few military base towns like Vladivostok will renegotiate its relationship with Moscow; governors will become billionaire-warlords with active Chinese connivance. Putin's Moscow-St Petersburg oligarchs will no longer be able to extract gigantic rents off resource flows and their power and patronage will wither. 
The economies of Old Muscovy are utterly hollow once you drive away the IT technorati (who are already quickly voting with their feet and would happily move to Krasnodar).  It's basically 35 million retirees, the very people who have been keenest on this stupid war. Let them rust and rot.
....Would this mean these autonomous republics areas become independent nations? Probably not at once, but the 'Russian Federation' would surely become a lot more 'Federation' and a lot less 'Russian'. 
But the iron fist of Moscow could at last be broken for good.

@BeondTheGrave @OldSarge @G.I. Joe
And other, who asked about Neptune ASM
The missile R-360 of Neptune complex is not a version of Kh-35U, though has similar parameters. Yes, it has very similar hull, and initially since R&D works have started as far as in 2013 or earlier, the missile should be as  localized and upgraded analog of Kh-35. This gave to Russian propagandists a reason to claim "Stupid Ukrainians proud because could copy old Soviet missile ahahaha!", so far like their claims "BTR-4 is reworked BTR-70". Russians in own chauvinism believed that without Russia all industry in Ukraine completely declined and we can't develop nothing own, but upgrade USSR lagacy. But Soviet/Russian Kh-35 was really "long played" project, started as far as in 1977, first prelimilary design was ready only in 1983, brought to tests only in 1992 and adopted to service in 2003! And Kh-35U with some improvements, like coordinates transmittion via satellite, was adopted in 2015
Currently Russian navy use this missile in next versions: Kh-35 (AS-20) for planes and helicopters, Bal (SSC-6) - coastal missile complex, Uran (SS-N-25) - ship-bases missile complex
Turning back to Ukrainian R-360 - since 2013 the missile have changed at least homing heads (or even three) and many more. First test launches were in 2018, but despite on success, there were found many problems in homing, flight stability also sea-skimming mode had enough hight altitude of flight. In 2019 new tests with new homing head and some constructive changes were conducted, but anyway missile demanded many finalization works. Also there was main problem - previous launches were conducted with USA aid - they detected target and transmitted coordinates to launcher vehicle via own sattelite. Ukraine has been developed own targeting radar Mineral-U, but encountered with many R&D problems, so manufacturer tests were passed only in October 2021 and two radars has been preparing to state test program, but unknown either it was started before a war or not. So, in present time Mioneral-U is nor adopted, but probably can be used in test mode. So, the strike at "Admiral Essen" and  "Moskva" could be done both via US satellite and Mineral-U tergeting. 
Also results of test showed that the carrier of missile complex and radar, based on 8x8 KRAZ-7634NE has low reliability and because of bad financial situation on KRAZ plant, technological problems and inability to provide timely technical support and implement constructive changes, there was assumed a decision to change the carrier to Tatra T815 (Chech Republic). Both Mineral-U radars were produced on Tatra chassis, but crossing of RK-360MC on Tatra took some time, so first battalion of Neptune have to be operational in April 2022 only. To this time the unit, armed with this complex - 65th coastal missile battalion had on armament only one launcher on KRAZ chassis and support vehciles. There is unknown either was a missiles or not, because in 2021, when this battalion was established, there was an information he had only dummy of missiles and first real nissiles have to arrive also in 2022. So, this is one possible answer, why Neptunes have awake only now. First reason - they got a missiles only now, second reason - they could have very short number of missiles and kept its for case of enemy landing attempt n Odesa area. But since new missiles issued and UK/Norway offered own ASMs, they could fire free.   
So, about R-360 pararameters: 7 ... 280 km range, 150 kg warhead, velocity - 900 km/h, radar/satellite coordinates and targeting aquisitoin, seeker field of viev +/- 60 deg (even more than Harpoon), sea-skimming mode, seeking during maneuvering, EW protection, maximum range of launcher from the sea shore - 25 km
Composition of battalion:
Three batteries per 2 launchers: 6 launchers USPU-360 (each has 4 tubes of R-360), deployment time 15 minutes
Technical battery:
6 transport-loader vehicles TZM-360 (4 R-360 missiles on each), deployment time 10 minutes, reloading time 20 minutes
6 transport vehicles TM-360 (4 R-360 missiles on each)
1 mobile command post RKP-360, deployment time 10 minutes.
1 targeting radar (optional) Mineral-U
So one battalion should have 72 missiles. Full salvo in 24 missiles simultainously is possible.
First version of launcher USPU-360 on KRAZ-7634NE 

Serial version of launcher USPU-360 on Tatra T815

Transport-loader vehicle TZM-360 first version (KRAZ)
 
Serial versin of transport-loader vehcile TZM-360 (Tatra)

Transport vehicle TM-360 (KRAZ)

Transport vehcile TM-360 (Tatra), serial variant

Mobile command post RKP-360, first variant

Mobile command post RKP-360 (Tatra), serial variant

Mineral-U radar

Before 2014 there was full decline of army. Our politics repeated the fatal mistake of Ukrainain socialists in 1917, when they decided that "new era coming without wars, when all nations will be brothers etc" and army was almost completely disbanded, so when Bolsheviks launched offensive, there too few forces remained to defend Ukraine. 
Since 1991 our politics told to society that Ukrainans are peaceful nation, we should be "pigeons of peace", never respond with agression on agression, we don't need in big army, because we will not attack anybody and will never be attacked, because we hadn't potential enemies etc. There were two exclusions - during Kuchma was a president. Despite he was moderate pro-Russian, in 1994 during Crimea crisis and in 2003 during Tuzla crisis his tough decisions forced Russia to cool in own ambitions. 
Army has been shortened in several stages, prestige of military was very low. Many officers retired and go to business, securiy, police or even to criminal. Among soldiers in military units reigned ugly Soviet-era semi-criminal habits, so almost all young people tried to avoid conscription in any way (bribe or gaining of officer rank in military department of university - this was pure formalism w/o any military practice or service, I myself am such "lietenant", which made three shots with PM for two years)
Attempts of reforms after 2008 war in Georgia failed because of inconsistency and indecision of authorities and resistans among high-ranked military, which according to Soviet habit didn't want to take any response or to do real things like increasing of real effectiveness of trops.
This looks weird, but most sucessfull attempt ot reforms were when pro-Russian Yanukovich came to power in 2010. In this time we have territorial contest with Romania for the shelf around Zmiinyi island, so Romania suddenly became unspoken potential enemy. There was defensive strategy vision was passed, according to which we could expext "border conflict of low intensity" in middle-time perspective. The vision of army was "small, but high-mobile professional troops, equipped with modernized Ukrainain weapon". Main focus - international cooperation, international maneuvers (both NATO and CIS/Russia), peacekeeping operation etc. Army was shortened again. Russian agents in MoD (and minister himself, citizen of Russia) made all to foil development of new Ukrainian weapon - project of ballistic missile Sapsan was cancelled, BM Oplot program remained w/o funding year by year, delayed building of new corvette and many other. Because of profesioanl army was claimed, MoD issued an order to liquidate all databeses in regional enlistment offices about persons, liablle to military service. So, when 2014 came, we met this crisis with completely disrupted mobilization system, with many "cadred" brigades, which in real had 200-400 of personnel, with faulty vehicles etc. But despite this, our "frontier soul", awake on Maidan and capability to decentralized self-organization saved us from full catastrophe.        

Imagine a group of scientists discussing some of the finer points of cladistic analysis of dinosaurs when suddenly the most inbred, subhuman redneck you can imagine bursts in and says "God made the earth in 7 days though!". That is basically what you just did.

Many in Ukraine call Russia as Mordor, but.. no. What a f....g Mordor? Putin too ugly and paltry to be compared with evil lord %) Putin's Russia is Numenor of Ar-Pharason times ) Cult of Melkor (like a temple of War in Russia), cultivating of hate to West and it Lords, opression of Faithfuls and offering them as sacrifice to Melkor, Great Armament, Great Invasion to Valinor and... if you read Silmarillion, you should know  If not, you should read it after LoTR 
PS. Before 7 years in medieval re-enactment I about 6 years was a Tolkien-fan, participated in LARPs etc, was an archer  

You are very welcome.  However the real hero we have had on this thread and deserves the thanks is @Haiduk.  He stayed in country, scoured Ukraine social media, and translated from day 1.  Without that contribution, along with all the others who have been scanning open source, we would have been blind on all this.

An interesting take on China`s relationship with Russia:
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/east-asia/2022-04-05/next-sino-russian-split 

So again I'm racist because I don't like seeing my friends getting killed by russians? I'm racist because I don't feel like russians raping underage girls in my country is OK? I'm racist because I'm shocked they are robbing my people of what those people worked so hard for years?
What does race have to do with any of it? 
Maybe I just don't find a fluffy position of "it's only Putin who's at fault" (that, granted, has changed into "it's only Putin and his army who is at fault" from "those innocent 18 y o kids who were sent here by the evil putin") good enough?
That army of rapists, robbers and murderers is armed by someone, is catered to by someone, dressed up by someone, fed by someone. And that someone is dozens of millions of russians.
Who all keep feeding that army, keep catering to that army, keep dressing up that army. And keep supporting the war machine. While  nobody there is trying to stop it.
So if me not being amused by some civilian Ivan somewhere cooking food for sergeant Vova who just finished raping another 14 y o girl in Mariupol makes me a nazi, who mistreats poor russians - I have no more arguments.

Map of recaptured settlements and possible Russian pockets:
 

Map of recaptured settlements and possible Russian pockets:
 

Map of recaptured settlements and possible Russian pockets:
 

Map of recaptured settlements and possible Russian pockets:
 

Looks like it's not just "civilian" fuel that's burning.
Russian social networks are full of rage over Belgorod. They are all like "we were told those damn village khohols are done for but they are bombing our cities now WHAT IS THIS".
Those poor good anti-war russians.