G.I. Joe

Yes. It really is a semi-automated and easy to use system. A crew training on this machine is really very fast. Frankly for people who already know artillery, it takes days to really be comfortable. Where it got long and quite complicated was on the commander's post because you have to know how to resolve anomalies, shooting incidents, vehicle settings (that's really where the difficulty lies) to operate the vehicle the best way possible. It is a weapon that is quite secure and very efficient, which is a good thing for the gunners but it requires knowing how the system reacts so as not to have a blockage. Personally, I knew the first versions that had software defects etc (which is normal for any new vehicle) and I quickly saw its reliability increase drastically (at least a decade ago). On top of that, we've had the time to perfect it and use it in real combat situations in Afghanistan or Iraq. Regarding the crew, it also depends on the type of ammunition used. It's easier to train a crew that uses simple fuzes than electronics ones which need to be configured electronically (it's still very simple, don't get me wrong, but it's still more complicated) 

If I may be permitted the sin attempting to be hopeful in the midst of this nightmare, there is some small possibility that we could come out ahead on the climate at the end of this. The perils of being dependent on petro dictators are now so unavoidably obvious it might get the U.S./European nuclear power industry back in business. And nuclear in a big way is the only path to not cooking the planet.

I see what the bad guy would look like if Bill Murray ever decides to make Stripes II...I'm sure an EM50A3 could take on those SUVs.

At the very least.
Let's say UA can bring 2 mobile brigades and rip open the rotten idle forces (1-2 regiments) shielding the Mariupol siege.  Revisiting the March battlefields around Volnovakha. Well known turf, in other words.

 
1.  With their 'land bridge' threatened with being cut in half, I can't see the Russians being able to respond using their remaining mobile combat power around Kherson. At least not in finite time.  And by all accounts, Donetsk and Lukhansk are tapped out for men who can hold rifles.  The main RA force concentrations are a long way away, and otherwise engaged.
In the Sun Tzu spirit, it seems like a great place to attack in that it truly taxes the enemy's ability to respond, and yet he must.
2.  So the battered RA forces fighting in Mariupol will need to disengage and turn about, like Caesar at Alesia, to defend their LOCs. In effect, that suspends the siege.
3.  'Lifting the siege' is a powerful epic tale that commands the attention of both the world and Russia. Consider Leningrad.
That fact can't be hidden, can't be respun. The whole 'denazification' meme unravels.
.....
Stories! I can't believe I'm quoting Daily Kos, but I guess wartime makes for strange bedfellows: 
https://m.dailykos.com/stories/2022/4/19/2092926/-Why-Does-This-War-Get-Sympathy-While-Other-Conflicts-Do-Not
Why are people more fired up about Ukraine than, say, Syria? 
It’s because, well, Syria is a civil war, and civil wars can often get fuzzy, especially if people aren’t familiar with the country.....There’s no simple good guy and bad guy. It’s not a simple story to tell.
[several paragraphs on why human beings respond to stories, not 'facts']
1. Putin’s mistake was screwing up an existing, fuzzy plot. The status of Crimea, while a land grab, had some uncertainty.....  [but] the obvious attempt not to merely secure their puppet states in the Donbass but to take over the whole country, that simplified the story.
2. It wasn’t a civil war. It wasn’t a conflict over disputed territory. It was a bully attacking someone smaller. It became the story of the evil empire.... And out of that came the outnumbered few willing to stand and say no, the underdogs who, despite all the odds apparently against them, who were holding out. The men and women taking up arms to defend their freedom.
That is an epic story.
But then came the atrocities, the murders, the outright calls for genocide. This wasn’t just the story of the underdog anymore, this was the story of good versus evil. 
I guess you get the drift.
And the Story matters in Russia too. Don't get too spun up in that whole 'soulless orcs' meme. No, they're people, even though many are acting abominably, and most are gloomily going along because it's too inconvenient to disbelieve the Story their leaders are telling.
So in this case, the new Story -- total and irremediable defeat of the entire 'Denazification' Project -- needs to be indisputable enough to break through the layers of spin, denial and 'you'll be sorry, Russian bear ees only just getting started' chest beating.
Breaking in and relieving the Mariupol siege, against all hope -- even if it isn't an actual 'lifting' of the siege for some time yet -- tells that story. I would say, even better than the progressive and ongoing bleed out of the current Grand Offensive.  The world is starting to get jaded at more pictures of burning tanks.
And the Story you DON'T want deluded Russians to start grasping at is that Our Boys were defeated (heroically) only because they were betrayed! stabbed in the back!  by corrupt boyars (cryptonazis and probably, ahem, 'Khazars') who filched the fuel or whatever. No, Good Tsar Vlad needs to own this defeat, good and hard.  Tsushima hard.
****
Taking it back to military ways-and-means, such a bold stroke may be worth tasking a brigade or two, with some of the armour Ukraine has been husbanding.  I think the UA 53rd has been manning that front for a long time, and knows the ground very very well.
Let's say this UA incursion can essentially destroy, or rout, the 2 'Guards' regiments on the front and retake Volnovakha, with leg infantry moving well beyond, perhaps to the Mariupol outskirts....
Counterattacking would require the full efforts of the RA Mariupol ground forces -- badly depleted and not really 'geared' by now to resume open country warfare -- plus hasty diversion of RA units already manning frontage to the west.  There's nothing else handy, unless they can airlift a VDV unit in or sumfink.... which taps whatever strategic reserves they have left.
Or else beg Kadyrov and his pudgy son to leave the halal buffet and actually do some fighting for a change.
....Plus diversion of overstrained RA air power from their aforementioned Not-So-Grand Offensive. They'd need to either redeploy A/C to airbases in Crimea/Rostov area, or else skirt a long and increasingly deadly Ukrainian front / air defence zone.

Finnish parliament have started to discuss NATO membership.
At this stage it sounds like most are in favour.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/4/20/finland-mps-debate-whether-to-join-nato
Here's a tweet about it
 

Exactly!  We judge the young based on our much more mature and responsible current situations.  But if we think back to what we were like at 21 it probably looks very different.  I am sure most of the grownups from where I grew up would say about me "he's not in jail?  Two engineering degrees?  -- Did he steal them?"
So back on subject, there was a post a few days ago that one or two BTG level officers were arrested and taken away because they were only at 55% strength but had reported 100%.  Does anyone know if that post has held up to scrutiny?  (I get how hard it would be to verify).  That would certainly explain a lot about Russian failings, sending in ~half of what higher ups thought they were sending.

There are various interpretations about the bevhaviour of Scholz and the SPD on the issue of shipping heavy weapons. Like almost everything, you can of course pin it on Russian kompromat, but the real reasons are likely much more mundane.
For me, it's most likely a combination of:
Having a number of critical state elections that the SPD wants to win in the coming months, where they don't want to risk having their party base and aging electorate run scared with talks of German Panzers rolling east. A number of influential SPD officials (especially Rolf Mützenich &  Ralf Stegner) that are fundamentally opposed to any confrontational policy with Russia. The usual ****up of our bureaucracy in the Ministry of Defense, where the leadership has no idea what's going on and the middle management is basically running their own policy. Just keep the pressure up, it's as simple as that.
The fundamental fear of German foreign policy is the concept of "Alleingänge", taking any risks by making decisions that aren't also taken by allied nations. If Germany appears isolated on the question of heavy weapons, it will align its policy to come back into the fold.

Agreed. I think every generation looks at those that follow it and says the world isn't going to make it because of speak easy's, rock n roll, hippies, dungeons and dragons and now smart phones. One of my favorite experiences with this was watching 3 year Marines talk about the Old Corps and how the new Marines just weren't as hard. LOL. 
Millennials have been given a horrible reputation and I blame the media. Of course they are going to run a story on how a pampered IV league college student needs an emotional support dog after an election doesn't end how they want it to. They aren't going to profile the 20 years of war fought by members of the same generation that showed amazing resilience, courage and fortitude bearing untold hardship and sacrifices. It just doesn't get the same reaction. MSM is the base cause of everything getting blown out of proportion nowadays. That and the cultural shift to paint everything with as wide a brush as possible also fueled by MSM. 
There is always that small slice that manages to get the lion's share of attention and then the rest of the group gets labeled or painted with the same brush. All millennials are lazy, all cops are bad, all whites are racist, all democrats are alt left radicals, etc. Pretty frustrating when anyone with half a brain knows that none of that is true and the vast majority of people don't fit into a nice neatly labeled box. 

This gets to one of my pet peeves: older generations are always pissing on the young generation.  In a post early in this thread I said that we're going to see a lot of these (allegedly) lazy, phone-addicted, pampered young people turn into heroes & martyrs.  It's the one thing I've been right about in this thread.  These kids are amazing.  They are rising above & beyond the challenge they are facing.  Next time you hear older folks disparaging the young, be sure to correct them.
So Day 3 of the Great Patriotic Offensive to End Naziism and so far the score is Steve & TheCapt = 3, TV pundits = zero.  Hopefully this will continue.  My wife was freaked because she heard they took some city (Kreminna) and I showed her a map that it was just a small gain and that thrust was still being contested and seems to be stalled. 
And while I know governments want credit for sending arms, I think I would also prefer to hear of some of this AFTER it's been safely delivered to Ukraine.  Don't want to give Russia more info than they deserve on what's coming on the next train.
 

I'm more mindful of that fact than any other an am glad that the US has an administration that appears to be handing events both prudently and pragmatically within the limits of US laws No chest thumping or any other false signals.
.
That is what makes war so difficult, learning to fight the enemy without becoming them. You're quite right, or at least I hope so, that there are still those who see what is happening but are powerless to stop it. If there is anyway out of this mess we will need them.

Well regretfully, there's the matter of 2000 more or less functional nuclear weapons that says the rest of humanity needs to pay close attention to this elegant heartfelt tosh. And that includes Chinese.
...And remember, while this Zi Namy Bog / Divine Right thing is sadly the *majority* view in Russia, there are still plenty of  Russians -- as there always have been -- who see it for the poison it is.
Some people here may snarl and call them 'smarter Orcs / let Bog sort em out' but they are in the end the same Russians who had the tolerably good sense to cut their losses, down tools and simply walk out of the Cold War (it doesn't appear that Honoured Chekist Putin was among them).
We are going to need all the allies we can get.

Agreed...it's hard to tell what was going on below decks, which systems were out, etc. Also, I gather damage control equipment on Soviet ships was not up to the same standard as NATO vessels (I think @asurob may have alluded to this a while ago). I remember going aboard USS Kinkaid for a tour during a port of call visit in Vancouver in 1992, when I was eleven. The sailor conducting our tour said he had had the chance to tour a Sovremenny and an Udaloy (if memory serves correctly) recently on an exchange visit...he said the thing that had struck him most was that he saw about two fire hoses on each ship throughout the whole tour. That really stuck in my mind because Kinkaid had fire hoses all over the place...same story aboard HMCS Vancouver a year later.
That seems unlikely to me...the SS-N-12 has a 1000 kg warhead (compared to 150 kg for the Neptune), I'm guessing that if one of them cooked off the ship wouldn't so much sink as explode. It does look like one of the hits may have been fairly close to that area, maybe part of the rationale for abandoning ship...

so just because my eyes are trained to look for this stuff, that 2nd image has gone through an AI upscale and any speculation should be thrown into the trash, unsure of the first image, didn't compare the res to the original, but considering the guy posting this has 22 followers, expect this to be a twitter follower grab or hes dumb and doesnt under stand that tech, he's posted multiple "high res versions" ignore this pls. its bad data.

The girl - commander of SP-howitzer
 

To my mind it we seem to be missing the fact that "it" has already happened, as in past tense.  And by "it" I do not mean the death of the tank, I mean how we think about tanks, armored warfare and conventional mass.
For example, tank is a core part of a capability, one whose job it is to translate energy into effects.  Higher levels of warfare then link those effects into decisions, and decisions into outcomes; this is the language of the communication of warfare.  That language has shifted.  After this war we will not look at tanks the same way we did before it.  Tanks, like battleships/dreadnought used to be a known metric of potential military power; a metric of land warfare, it meant something to say "we have 1000 tanks". 
After this war "we have 1000 tanks" as a metric of how well we can communicate war will mean something different.  We cannot un-think that.  All the remains is trying to understand what that after-meaning is or is not.
I do not know, but I definitely will say it was not what it was on 23 Feb 22. 

What's interesting to note is that the publicly announced US intelligence assessments weren't a one time thing. They were copious, changed over time and were updated. They also were issued pretty frequently. That's *not* the kind of product you have if you are working off of a few highly placed sources (if you want them to live through the next week). Bottom line, the US was demonstrating that we had thoroughly penetrated the Russian decision cycle in every way possible. A similar thing happened a week or so ago when the NSA simply disconnected the GRU hacking team from a broad swathe of software they were about to use for a larger cyber attack. 
There's a purpose to all of this, of course. It's a demonstration of dominance and so a method by which one nation can coerce another from escalation. Putin has to consider not just the down stream effects of (for example) a strike on a Polish arms depot or a limited nuclear strike...he now has to think about what happens between when he orders it and when it can actually be carried out. He has to assume that we know pretty much as soon as he decides. It cannot be a comfortable position.

Setting aside what Russia really wants, some of the "public" demands Russia has made of Ukraine could easily be met, and offering to do so in some ways could mess further with their international position.
Zelensky and co have "diplomatically" accepted the possibility of Neutrality, and their (entirely valid and reasonable) insistence on outside-party guarantees (which the initial Russian demand-for-public-consumption hadn't specifically excluded as a possibility) showed the Russians up as negotiators-in-bad-faith when it gained no traction in the talks.
For example, Ukraine could, potentially offer to add provisions similar to those the Germans have in their law, against celebrating Nazism, and then go further by including the humanitarian offenses of the CCCP in those measures. Would that mess with Russian heads enough to be worth putting on the table?
Continuing to shine light on Russia's mendacity is important in maintaining the support of the rest of the world, and building the global consensus that Russia is the Bad Guy to increase the chances of their further isolation.

^What he said! Having said that, my own CM experience level is very much at the beginner end of the spectrum. I bought all the WWII titles (CM1 on gog.com and CM2 direct from Battlefront) over the course of 2019 but work and parenthood have left me little time for gaming of any description. Wouldn't feel right about buying CMBS until this war is over, but I did pick up CMCW recently to support the team...
And welcome to my fellow newcomers...I've had a lurker account here for a few years but these discussions finally drew me out of the shadows. I meant to start off with a tip of the hat post like this as others have done, but ended up chiming in a few times and it just snowballed from there...apologies for the lack of manners.
I will echo what others have said: This thread has become my go-to source for news and analysis on the current conflict, the variety of experience and expertise here is quite remarkable. @Battlefront.com and @The_Capt have definitely earned all the accolades, along with many of the other contributors.
And of course, a special thanks to @Haiduk and everyone else contributing from Ukraine. Anything I can say in these terrible times would feel utterly inadequate, so I'll leave it at a heartfelt stay safe and stay strong. Hopefully better times are ahead soon...

This got me to remembering.  Recall back in the good old days when the pro-Russian crowd called this all propaganda? Sigh, I wish they were right. They are all pretty much gone now, not sure if we will see them again.
I will miss the accusations of being pro-US and short changing the Russians/Soviets.  The arguments about crappy T-72 spotting…harkens to a kinder gentler time…January.

@BeondTheGrave @OldSarge @G.I. Joe
And other, who asked about Neptune ASM
The missile R-360 of Neptune complex is not a version of Kh-35U, though has similar parameters. Yes, it has very similar hull, and initially since R&D works have started as far as in 2013 or earlier, the missile should be as  localized and upgraded analog of Kh-35. This gave to Russian propagandists a reason to claim "Stupid Ukrainians proud because could copy old Soviet missile ahahaha!", so far like their claims "BTR-4 is reworked BTR-70". Russians in own chauvinism believed that without Russia all industry in Ukraine completely declined and we can't develop nothing own, but upgrade USSR lagacy. But Soviet/Russian Kh-35 was really "long played" project, started as far as in 1977, first prelimilary design was ready only in 1983, brought to tests only in 1992 and adopted to service in 2003! And Kh-35U with some improvements, like coordinates transmittion via satellite, was adopted in 2015
Currently Russian navy use this missile in next versions: Kh-35 (AS-20) for planes and helicopters, Bal (SSC-6) - coastal missile complex, Uran (SS-N-25) - ship-bases missile complex
Turning back to Ukrainian R-360 - since 2013 the missile have changed at least homing heads (or even three) and many more. First test launches were in 2018, but despite on success, there were found many problems in homing, flight stability also sea-skimming mode had enough hight altitude of flight. In 2019 new tests with new homing head and some constructive changes were conducted, but anyway missile demanded many finalization works. Also there was main problem - previous launches were conducted with USA aid - they detected target and transmitted coordinates to launcher vehicle via own sattelite. Ukraine has been developed own targeting radar Mineral-U, but encountered with many R&D problems, so manufacturer tests were passed only in October 2021 and two radars has been preparing to state test program, but unknown either it was started before a war or not. So, in present time Mioneral-U is nor adopted, but probably can be used in test mode. So, the strike at "Admiral Essen" and  "Moskva" could be done both via US satellite and Mineral-U tergeting. 
Also results of test showed that the carrier of missile complex and radar, based on 8x8 KRAZ-7634NE has low reliability and because of bad financial situation on KRAZ plant, technological problems and inability to provide timely technical support and implement constructive changes, there was assumed a decision to change the carrier to Tatra T815 (Chech Republic). Both Mineral-U radars were produced on Tatra chassis, but crossing of RK-360MC on Tatra took some time, so first battalion of Neptune have to be operational in April 2022 only. To this time the unit, armed with this complex - 65th coastal missile battalion had on armament only one launcher on KRAZ chassis and support vehciles. There is unknown either was a missiles or not, because in 2021, when this battalion was established, there was an information he had only dummy of missiles and first real nissiles have to arrive also in 2022. So, this is one possible answer, why Neptunes have awake only now. First reason - they got a missiles only now, second reason - they could have very short number of missiles and kept its for case of enemy landing attempt n Odesa area. But since new missiles issued and UK/Norway offered own ASMs, they could fire free.   
So, about R-360 pararameters: 7 ... 280 km range, 150 kg warhead, velocity - 900 km/h, radar/satellite coordinates and targeting aquisitoin, seeker field of viev +/- 60 deg (even more than Harpoon), sea-skimming mode, seeking during maneuvering, EW protection, maximum range of launcher from the sea shore - 25 km
Composition of battalion:
Three batteries per 2 launchers: 6 launchers USPU-360 (each has 4 tubes of R-360), deployment time 15 minutes
Technical battery:
6 transport-loader vehicles TZM-360 (4 R-360 missiles on each), deployment time 10 minutes, reloading time 20 minutes
6 transport vehicles TM-360 (4 R-360 missiles on each)
1 mobile command post RKP-360, deployment time 10 minutes.
1 targeting radar (optional) Mineral-U
So one battalion should have 72 missiles. Full salvo in 24 missiles simultainously is possible.
First version of launcher USPU-360 on KRAZ-7634NE 

Serial version of launcher USPU-360 on Tatra T815

Transport-loader vehicle TZM-360 first version (KRAZ)
 
Serial versin of transport-loader vehcile TZM-360 (Tatra)

Transport vehicle TM-360 (KRAZ)

Transport vehcile TM-360 (Tatra), serial variant

Mobile command post RKP-360, first variant

Mobile command post RKP-360 (Tatra), serial variant

Mineral-U radar

Note: chips are not a fungible cross platform technology. Russian military hardware has very particular needs and those needs are often in areas where China itself is currently feeling the pinch. There's also little appetite in Chinese industrial sectors to risk 70% of their business for 5% of their business in Russia. Notably, Sinopec is privately giving every signal of not renewing Russian oil/gas contracts as they expire. Russia needs China vastly more than China needs Russia and China puts a lot at risk for a paltry reward. 
Broadly speaking, Xi doesn't want Russia to lose but he's no Kaiser Wilhelm. He's not going to take serious risks for his Austro-Hungarian style ally.

two mines with jet engines strapped to them
You can also say Moskva successfully demilitarized Ukrainian naval defenses by lowering the amount of our antiship missiles by two.

^What he said! Having said that, my own CM experience level is very much at the beginner end of the spectrum. I bought all the WWII titles (CM1 on gog.com and CM2 direct from Battlefront) over the course of 2019 but work and parenthood have left me little time for gaming of any description. Wouldn't feel right about buying CMBS until this war is over, but I did pick up CMCW recently to support the team...
And welcome to my fellow newcomers...I've had a lurker account here for a few years but these discussions finally drew me out of the shadows. I meant to start off with a tip of the hat post like this as others have done, but ended up chiming in a few times and it just snowballed from there...apologies for the lack of manners.
I will echo what others have said: This thread has become my go-to source for news and analysis on the current conflict, the variety of experience and expertise here is quite remarkable. @Battlefront.com and @The_Capt have definitely earned all the accolades, along with many of the other contributors.
And of course, a special thanks to @Haiduk and everyone else contributing from Ukraine. Anything I can say in these terrible times would feel utterly inadequate, so I'll leave it at a heartfelt stay safe and stay strong. Hopefully better times are ahead soon...

^What he said! Having said that, my own CM experience level is very much at the beginner end of the spectrum. I bought all the WWII titles (CM1 on gog.com and CM2 direct from Battlefront) over the course of 2019 but work and parenthood have left me little time for gaming of any description. Wouldn't feel right about buying CMBS until this war is over, but I did pick up CMCW recently to support the team...
And welcome to my fellow newcomers...I've had a lurker account here for a few years but these discussions finally drew me out of the shadows. I meant to start off with a tip of the hat post like this as others have done, but ended up chiming in a few times and it just snowballed from there...apologies for the lack of manners.
I will echo what others have said: This thread has become my go-to source for news and analysis on the current conflict, the variety of experience and expertise here is quite remarkable. @Battlefront.com and @The_Capt have definitely earned all the accolades, along with many of the other contributors.
And of course, a special thanks to @Haiduk and everyone else contributing from Ukraine. Anything I can say in these terrible times would feel utterly inadequate, so I'll leave it at a heartfelt stay safe and stay strong. Hopefully better times are ahead soon...

^What he said! Having said that, my own CM experience level is very much at the beginner end of the spectrum. I bought all the WWII titles (CM1 on gog.com and CM2 direct from Battlefront) over the course of 2019 but work and parenthood have left me little time for gaming of any description. Wouldn't feel right about buying CMBS until this war is over, but I did pick up CMCW recently to support the team...
And welcome to my fellow newcomers...I've had a lurker account here for a few years but these discussions finally drew me out of the shadows. I meant to start off with a tip of the hat post like this as others have done, but ended up chiming in a few times and it just snowballed from there...apologies for the lack of manners.
I will echo what others have said: This thread has become my go-to source for news and analysis on the current conflict, the variety of experience and expertise here is quite remarkable. @Battlefront.com and @The_Capt have definitely earned all the accolades, along with many of the other contributors.
And of course, a special thanks to @Haiduk and everyone else contributing from Ukraine. Anything I can say in these terrible times would feel utterly inadequate, so I'll leave it at a heartfelt stay safe and stay strong. Hopefully better times are ahead soon...