Machor

@billbindc @mosuri
Going by his statements after the summit, he wants something concrete that he can display to his power base as a sign of his strength, and faces in handcuffs that have been extradited from Finland and Sweden check the box, so I expect him to put pressure in that direction.
However, it appears the operation planned against the YPG has been cancelled - I assume this is where Biden 'had a talk' with him.
The TAK are indeed fishy: I am not aware of another terrorist organization that has been active for almost two decades, where we know nothing about the organization's leadership nor structure.
They are also uniquely tolerated by the PKK, which has historically never allowed other organizations to operate on its turf: It eliminated all rival Kurdish organizations in the 80s, and went out if its way, while fighting very hard against the Turkish military in the 90s, to fight and destroy TİKKO in Dersim.
I can also add a personal insight: After I made 'sergeant' (OR-4/E-4), my fun activity during night watches was to check senior NCOs' desk drawers for documents stamped 'secret' that they were too lazy to return to the safe - good ole days without security cameras. Most interesting among my finds were intel reports about teams of bombers that had been dispatched to known cities and coastal resorts, and these operatives were always dispatched from PKK bases in northern Iraq or inside Turkey. Thus, back when TAK started its business, it was relying fully on the PKK's infrastructure.
If it walks like a duck, quacks like a duck... The only arguments we have for the TAK being independent of the PKK are statements by the PKK, TAK, and PKK sympathizers who want it delisted as a terrorist organization.
That being said, the PKK gets its hands dirty without TAK branding as well:
PKK kills young teacher after abducting him in Turkey’s east
PKK terrorists abduct, kill 2 shepherds
The TAK cannot be a false flag operation run by Erdoğan because they started when Erdoğan had recently become the PM and did not have control over the state security apparatus. Also, TAK bombings reveal another pattern: They almost always carry out an attack after the PKK suffers a heavy loss, clearly indicating their morale-boosting mission for the PKK.
However, it is true that their attacks have helped Erdoğan win election victories, and there is no need to seek a conspiracy behind this: The PKK LOVES Erdoğan! ❤️
Think about it: Arguably the worst human rights abuses against Turkey's Kurds since the military junta of 1980 were committed during Çiller's campaign against the PKK, yet few cared in the West. She was Turkey's first woman PM, had a PhD from the US - she oozed 'progressive', and few cared to look beyond.
Now, in Erdoğan, Turkey has a face that openly expresses his disdain for all who aren't practicing Muslims, keeps promising to turn a UNESCO world heritage site into a mosque and eventually does it, keeps calling Germans and Dutch (?) 'Nazis', and still manages to rub most Islamic countries the wrong way as well - wouldn't you LOVE your enemy to have a face like that? ❤️
Moreover, by jailing HDP politicians since 2016, I'm sure Erdoğan has done wonders for the PKK's recruitment. Thus, I too expect TAK bombings to restart before the elections, and the reason is pretty straightforward.
This wasn't photoshopped; just a regular day in 'Türkiye':

@billbindc @mosuri
Going by his statements after the summit, he wants something concrete that he can display to his power base as a sign of his strength, and faces in handcuffs that have been extradited from Finland and Sweden check the box, so I expect him to put pressure in that direction.
However, it appears the operation planned against the YPG has been cancelled - I assume this is where Biden 'had a talk' with him.
The TAK are indeed fishy: I am not aware of another terrorist organization that has been active for almost two decades, where we know nothing about the organization's leadership nor structure.
They are also uniquely tolerated by the PKK, which has historically never allowed other organizations to operate on its turf: It eliminated all rival Kurdish organizations in the 80s, and went out if its way, while fighting very hard against the Turkish military in the 90s, to fight and destroy TİKKO in Dersim.
I can also add a personal insight: After I made 'sergeant' (OR-4/E-4), my fun activity during night watches was to check senior NCOs' desk drawers for documents stamped 'secret' that they were too lazy to return to the safe - good ole days without security cameras. Most interesting among my finds were intel reports about teams of bombers that had been dispatched to known cities and coastal resorts, and these operatives were always dispatched from PKK bases in northern Iraq or inside Turkey. Thus, back when TAK started its business, it was relying fully on the PKK's infrastructure.
If it walks like a duck, quacks like a duck... The only arguments we have for the TAK being independent of the PKK are statements by the PKK, TAK, and PKK sympathizers who want it delisted as a terrorist organization.
That being said, the PKK gets its hands dirty without TAK branding as well:
PKK kills young teacher after abducting him in Turkey’s east
PKK terrorists abduct, kill 2 shepherds
The TAK cannot be a false flag operation run by Erdoğan because they started when Erdoğan had recently become the PM and did not have control over the state security apparatus. Also, TAK bombings reveal another pattern: They almost always carry out an attack after the PKK suffers a heavy loss, clearly indicating their morale-boosting mission for the PKK.
However, it is true that their attacks have helped Erdoğan win election victories, and there is no need to seek a conspiracy behind this: The PKK LOVES Erdoğan! ❤️
Think about it: Arguably the worst human rights abuses against Turkey's Kurds since the military junta of 1980 were committed during Çiller's campaign against the PKK, yet few cared in the West. She was Turkey's first woman PM, had a PhD from the US - she oozed 'progressive', and few cared to look beyond.
Now, in Erdoğan, Turkey has a face that openly expresses his disdain for all who aren't practicing Muslims, keeps promising to turn a UNESCO world heritage site into a mosque and eventually does it, keeps calling Germans and Dutch (?) 'Nazis', and still manages to rub most Islamic countries the wrong way as well - wouldn't you LOVE your enemy to have a face like that? ❤️
Moreover, by jailing HDP politicians since 2016, I'm sure Erdoğan has done wonders for the PKK's recruitment. Thus, I too expect TAK bombings to restart before the elections, and the reason is pretty straightforward.
This wasn't photoshopped; just a regular day in 'Türkiye':

@billbindc @mosuri
Going by his statements after the summit, he wants something concrete that he can display to his power base as a sign of his strength, and faces in handcuffs that have been extradited from Finland and Sweden check the box, so I expect him to put pressure in that direction.
However, it appears the operation planned against the YPG has been cancelled - I assume this is where Biden 'had a talk' with him.
The TAK are indeed fishy: I am not aware of another terrorist organization that has been active for almost two decades, where we know nothing about the organization's leadership nor structure.
They are also uniquely tolerated by the PKK, which has historically never allowed other organizations to operate on its turf: It eliminated all rival Kurdish organizations in the 80s, and went out if its way, while fighting very hard against the Turkish military in the 90s, to fight and destroy TİKKO in Dersim.
I can also add a personal insight: After I made 'sergeant' (OR-4/E-4), my fun activity during night watches was to check senior NCOs' desk drawers for documents stamped 'secret' that they were too lazy to return to the safe - good ole days without security cameras. Most interesting among my finds were intel reports about teams of bombers that had been dispatched to known cities and coastal resorts, and these operatives were always dispatched from PKK bases in northern Iraq or inside Turkey. Thus, back when TAK started its business, it was relying fully on the PKK's infrastructure.
If it walks like a duck, quacks like a duck... The only arguments we have for the TAK being independent of the PKK are statements by the PKK, TAK, and PKK sympathizers who want it delisted as a terrorist organization.
That being said, the PKK gets its hands dirty without TAK branding as well:
PKK kills young teacher after abducting him in Turkey’s east
PKK terrorists abduct, kill 2 shepherds
The TAK cannot be a false flag operation run by Erdoğan because they started when Erdoğan had recently become the PM and did not have control over the state security apparatus. Also, TAK bombings reveal another pattern: They almost always carry out an attack after the PKK suffers a heavy loss, clearly indicating their morale-boosting mission for the PKK.
However, it is true that their attacks have helped Erdoğan win election victories, and there is no need to seek a conspiracy behind this: The PKK LOVES Erdoğan! ❤️
Think about it: Arguably the worst human rights abuses against Turkey's Kurds since the military junta of 1980 were committed during Çiller's campaign against the PKK, yet few cared in the West. She was Turkey's first woman PM, had a PhD from the US - she oozed 'progressive', and few cared to look beyond.
Now, in Erdoğan, Turkey has a face that openly expresses his disdain for all who aren't practicing Muslims, keeps promising to turn a UNESCO world heritage site into a mosque and eventually does it, keeps calling Germans and Dutch (?) 'Nazis', and still manages to rub most Islamic countries the wrong way as well - wouldn't you LOVE your enemy to have a face like that? ❤️
Moreover, by jailing HDP politicians since 2016, I'm sure Erdoğan has done wonders for the PKK's recruitment. Thus, I too expect TAK bombings to restart before the elections, and the reason is pretty straightforward.
This wasn't photoshopped; just a regular day in 'Türkiye':

@billbindc @mosuri
Going by his statements after the summit, he wants something concrete that he can display to his power base as a sign of his strength, and faces in handcuffs that have been extradited from Finland and Sweden check the box, so I expect him to put pressure in that direction.
However, it appears the operation planned against the YPG has been cancelled - I assume this is where Biden 'had a talk' with him.
The TAK are indeed fishy: I am not aware of another terrorist organization that has been active for almost two decades, where we know nothing about the organization's leadership nor structure.
They are also uniquely tolerated by the PKK, which has historically never allowed other organizations to operate on its turf: It eliminated all rival Kurdish organizations in the 80s, and went out if its way, while fighting very hard against the Turkish military in the 90s, to fight and destroy TİKKO in Dersim.
I can also add a personal insight: After I made 'sergeant' (OR-4/E-4), my fun activity during night watches was to check senior NCOs' desk drawers for documents stamped 'secret' that they were too lazy to return to the safe - good ole days without security cameras. Most interesting among my finds were intel reports about teams of bombers that had been dispatched to known cities and coastal resorts, and these operatives were always dispatched from PKK bases in northern Iraq or inside Turkey. Thus, back when TAK started its business, it was relying fully on the PKK's infrastructure.
If it walks like a duck, quacks like a duck... The only arguments we have for the TAK being independent of the PKK are statements by the PKK, TAK, and PKK sympathizers who want it delisted as a terrorist organization.
That being said, the PKK gets its hands dirty without TAK branding as well:
PKK kills young teacher after abducting him in Turkey’s east
PKK terrorists abduct, kill 2 shepherds
The TAK cannot be a false flag operation run by Erdoğan because they started when Erdoğan had recently become the PM and did not have control over the state security apparatus. Also, TAK bombings reveal another pattern: They almost always carry out an attack after the PKK suffers a heavy loss, clearly indicating their morale-boosting mission for the PKK.
However, it is true that their attacks have helped Erdoğan win election victories, and there is no need to seek a conspiracy behind this: The PKK LOVES Erdoğan! ❤️
Think about it: Arguably the worst human rights abuses against Turkey's Kurds since the military junta of 1980 were committed during Çiller's campaign against the PKK, yet few cared in the West. She was Turkey's first woman PM, had a PhD from the US - she oozed 'progressive', and few cared to look beyond.
Now, in Erdoğan, Turkey has a face that openly expresses his disdain for all who aren't practicing Muslims, keeps promising to turn a UNESCO world heritage site into a mosque and eventually does it, keeps calling Germans and Dutch (?) 'Nazis', and still manages to rub most Islamic countries the wrong way as well - wouldn't you LOVE your enemy to have a face like that? ❤️
Moreover, by jailing HDP politicians since 2016, I'm sure Erdoğan has done wonders for the PKK's recruitment. Thus, I too expect TAK bombings to restart before the elections, and the reason is pretty straightforward.
This wasn't photoshopped; just a regular day in 'Türkiye':

UKR prototype of Bohdana 155 mm SP-howitzer fires on Zmiinyi island not far from Vylkove village, Odesa oblast. The range is about 36 km. 

Our sappers will have alot of work for years...
 

To celebrate today's good news from Snake Islands, here is something to laugh at from Master Dugin:
https://twitter.com/maxfras/status/1542467966721265665

It's a joke - in USSR there was cheap and prevalent portwine "777". Because "7" has similar form to an axe, people called this wine "three axes" and this name moved to US howitzers

Some more info about RU economy
State of Ru import
 
Gasprom state
 
State of Sberbank - It is most popular RU bank.
Lesson on how to speak as patriotic RU - the economy demonstrates excellent negative strengthening. 

Interesting. I never saw or heard of a M551 being air-dropped while I was in the 82d. They were either air landed after a DZ was secured (C-130 on an improvised flight strip), or LAPES (Low Altitude Parachute Extraction System) - C-130 flies a couple feet off the ground with wheels down and the M551 is drogue chuted out the back on the same kind of platform used for a heavy drop parachute drop, skids to a stop. It's a tricky maneuver because of the low altitude and the shift of weight (and then loss of weight) in the aircraft. 
Looks like an interesting vehicle. Some direct fire support for infantry units could be very useful, as long as they are used so that they are not exposed. But then, that's not any worse than "exposing" your IFVs to AT fire, I suppose.
Dave

It seems that Lysychansk is already evacuated, or will be today, UA is retreating to Siversk - Bakhmut line. I don't think that RU can stop at that point though, liberating half of Donbas does not sound like a victory at all, they will have to continue. The unilateral ceasefire is going to be a mess indeed, but I really don't think the idea will catch traction in the West - it was stated by everyone that it's up to UA to decide, and Zelensky's terms to start negotiations is for RU to withdraw to Feb 24th. TBH, I have the impression that at least some western leaders have smelled the blood at this point and won't let go easily. For sure Johnson had, and I think Macron too. Nothing gives you more support than a victorious war after all.
UA retreating from Lysychansk under fire. Spirits seem to be high  :
 
 

"This video clip released on June 29, 2022 by the Russian Defense Ministry press service shows a Russian Air Force Mi-24 helicopter ejecting flares during a mission in Ukraine. RUSSIAN DEFENSE MINISTRY/ AP"

Sooo... about the 'Death of the Tank':
The Army Just Selected Its First Light Tank In Decades
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/the-army-just-selected-its-first-light-tank-in-decades

"For the first time since the Cold War, the U.S. Army is set to acquire and field a new light tank. The service announced today that General Dynamics Land Systems has won its Mobile Protected Firepower program competition and has been awarded a contract worth up to $1.14 billion.
The initial Mobile Protected Firepower (MPF) contract award will cover an initial low-rate production order of 96 vehicles. The Army expects to take delivery of the first examples, from an initial lot of 26 MPFs, in December 2023 and have its first unit fully equipped with them by 2025. The service presently plans to buy a total of 504 new light tanks, with most of them arriving by the end of 2035."
"The GDLS MPF design, which is set to public receive a formal name this fall at the Association of the U.S. Army's main annual convention in Washington, D.C, is based on the company's Griffin II. Its main armament is a 105mm gun – unlike the 120mm type found on the original Griffin demonstrator – mounted in a turret derived from the one on the M1 Abrams tank. It uses a version of the fire control system used in the M1A2 System Enhanced Package Version 3 (SEPv3) variant"
"Griffin II was itself derived from the Austrian-Spanish ASCOD armored vehicle series, which also formed the basis of the much-troubled Ajax infantry fighting vehicle for the British Army. GDLS has also put forward another version of the Griffin, known as the Griffin III, as a contender for the Army's Optionally Manned Fighting Vehicle (OMFV) program, which is focused primarily on finding a replacement for the service's Bradley fighting vehicles."
"The MPF program began in 2015 and the Army down-selected to designs from GDLS and BAE Systems in 2018. BAE Systems' entry was based on the M8 Buford Armored Gun System (AGS) light tank, which was developed for the Army in the 1980s under a separate program that was then canceled in 1996.
The M8 had been slated to replace the service's last light tank, the M551A1 Sheridan, a Vietnam War-era design that had an overly complex 152mm gun/missile launcher as its primary armament. The last M551A1s were retired from active duty service in 1997. A small number of Sheridans remained in inventory for use as mock enemy vehicles during large-scale training exercises until 2003."
"Under the Army's current plans, the majority of the new MPFs will be spread across four battalions. These units will provide additional armored firepower for the service's dismounted Infantry Brigade Combat Teams (IBCTs), which currently only have light tactical vehicles – Humvees that are now in the process of being replaced by Joint Light Tactical Vehicles (JLTV) – armed with .50 caliber M2 machine guns, 40mm Mk 19 automatic grenade launchers, and TOW anti-tank missiles, for organic mobile fire support
“The answer is in the name," Army Maj. Gen. Ross Coffman, director of the Next Generation Combat Vehicle Cross-Functional Team, told reporters when asked what the primary mission of these vehicles would be earlier today, according to Breaking Defense. "It’ll give the light infantry units a mobile, protected firepower that … can remove impediments on the battlefield [like light armored vehicles and fortifications] to ensure our infantry women and men make it to the objective."
Exactly how these vehicles will be deployed and employed would seem to remain to be seen. Light is relative in the case of the MPF design, which is is said to be around 38 tons. This is only around two tons lighter than the Army's new M2A4 Bradley infantry fighting vehicle, but is 20 tons heavier than the M551A1. It is of course substantially lighter than the Army's latest versions of the M1 tank, which are over 70 tons.
The Army had originally described MPF more in terms of a spiritual successor to the Sheridan, which was not only air-transportable, but also air-droppable. The requirement for the new MPF to be parachutable onto the battlefield was subsequently dropped. A single Air Force C-17A Globemaster III cargo aircraft is expected to be able to carry two of them at a time when flying them to forward airstrips.
It's unclear whether any of the Army's airborne formations will now receive these new light tanks. However, a picture, seen below, from the previous test that the service released today shows an MPF flying an 82nd Airborne Division flag.
The Army's selection of a winning MPF design also comes amid a renewed debate about the future of tanks and other heavier armored vehicles based on observations from Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The MPF program itself had first emerged as part of a broader shift in focus within the Army, and the U.S. military as a whole, toward being better prepared for more conventional conflicts in light of Russia's seizure of Ukraine's Crimea region in 2014 and its subsequent support for separatists in that country's eastern Donbas region.
Regardless, a quarter of a century after the retirement of the M551A1 from combat duty with no direct replacement in the wings, the Army is now set to begin buying a new fleet of light tanks."

And one reason Tsingtao is such good beer is because the brewery was founded by Germans. 

And one reason Tsingtao is such good beer is because the brewery was founded by Germans. 

It is nickname for 777.

@acrashb @The_MonkeyKing @Aragorn2002 @Lethaface
There's nothing in the MOU that changes the status quo:
- The PKK is a designated terrorist organization in the EU [And with very good reason; see: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pınarcık_massacre https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yavi_Massacre https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blue_Market_massacre https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/May_2016_Dürümlü_bombing https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kurdistan_Freedom_Hawks#Attacks ], so Finland and Sweden are already bound by that.
- Finland and Sweden did not recognize the YPG, the PKK's Syrian arm, as a terrorist organization.
- Whatever arms embargoes Finland and Sweden may have imposed on Turkey, Turkey wasn't trying to buy arms from them.
Solid gains for Turkey would have been Germany and France lifting restrictions on arms exports, and the US agreeing to sell the F-16V upgrade kits. It is not clear if Turkish diplomats seriously thought that they could get these, since the objection to Finland and Sweden joining NATO was raised by Erdoğan as an afterthought. These two tweets are the most realistic assessment:
@Huba @Battlefront.com @billbindc @dan/california
The Biden administration was already supporting the sale of the F-16V upgrade kits to Turkey before Erdoğan's objection to Finland and Sweden, and according to Aaron Stein, the administration's support is genuine: It will be awkward for them to be selling F-35 to Greece - which already has Rafale, F-16V & Patriot - while Congress refuses to sell Turkey Viper upgrade kits for old airframes. Bob Menendez (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bob_Menendez#Awards_and_honors ) may potentially do damage that extends into the promised post-Erdoğan era, as there are already voices in the opposition arguing for a partnership with China.
For now, Plan B seems to be going for Typhoon, and the UK is very encouraging, but getting greenlights from Germany and France would be a challenge.

Ukraine received 50 Turkish Bayraktar TB2 drones since Russian invasion
https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/russia-ukraine-war-tb2-bayraktar-drones-fifty-received
"Ukrainian Defence Minister Oleksii Reznikov revealed on Tuesday that Ukraine has received 50 armed drones from Turkish arms company Baykar since Russia's 24 February invasion.
In a Facebook post Reznikov thanked Ukrainians and Baykar for the donation of three Bayraktar TB2 armed drones following a social media fundraising campaign that collected $20m to buy three of the aircraft.
Baykar on Monday said it refused to take the money and would instead donate the drones to show solidarity with the Ukrainian people."
"Reznikov said Ukraine and Turkey are continuing work to build a joint Baykar plant in Ukraine to locally build drones, an agreement that was signed before the war.
“Ukraine's plans to buy Bayraktar are also large-scale,” he said. “Since 24 February only, the Ministry of Defence has armed our military with up to half a hundred 'airplanes'".
Reznikov added that Ukraine has already signed a memorandum of understanding for more drones, which were expected to be delivered in July.
“We have also received a new request from the command of the armed forces of Ukraine and thus, in the near future, almost all capacity of the Baykar Makina plant [in Turkey] will be focused on meeting the needs of the armed forces. It's about ordering dozens more drones,” he added. 
Ukraine and Turkey have close defence industry cooperation, a relationship that has flourished in recent years. 
Ukrainian companies also produce the Baykar’s engines, and Turkey was known to have sold more than 20 Bayraktars to Kyiv over the course of the past two years. Reznikov’s information significantly increased that number. 
Frequent flights between Turkey and Poland over the last two months indicate that Turkey has continued to deliver TB2s and its MAM-L ammunition to Kyiv.
In January, Al-Monitor reported that Ukraine got a 30 percent discount for the TB2 drones, paying approximately $7m for each."

Ukraine received 50 Turkish Bayraktar TB2 drones since Russian invasion
https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/russia-ukraine-war-tb2-bayraktar-drones-fifty-received
"Ukrainian Defence Minister Oleksii Reznikov revealed on Tuesday that Ukraine has received 50 armed drones from Turkish arms company Baykar since Russia's 24 February invasion.
In a Facebook post Reznikov thanked Ukrainians and Baykar for the donation of three Bayraktar TB2 armed drones following a social media fundraising campaign that collected $20m to buy three of the aircraft.
Baykar on Monday said it refused to take the money and would instead donate the drones to show solidarity with the Ukrainian people."
"Reznikov said Ukraine and Turkey are continuing work to build a joint Baykar plant in Ukraine to locally build drones, an agreement that was signed before the war.
“Ukraine's plans to buy Bayraktar are also large-scale,” he said. “Since 24 February only, the Ministry of Defence has armed our military with up to half a hundred 'airplanes'".
Reznikov added that Ukraine has already signed a memorandum of understanding for more drones, which were expected to be delivered in July.
“We have also received a new request from the command of the armed forces of Ukraine and thus, in the near future, almost all capacity of the Baykar Makina plant [in Turkey] will be focused on meeting the needs of the armed forces. It's about ordering dozens more drones,” he added. 
Ukraine and Turkey have close defence industry cooperation, a relationship that has flourished in recent years. 
Ukrainian companies also produce the Baykar’s engines, and Turkey was known to have sold more than 20 Bayraktars to Kyiv over the course of the past two years. Reznikov’s information significantly increased that number. 
Frequent flights between Turkey and Poland over the last two months indicate that Turkey has continued to deliver TB2s and its MAM-L ammunition to Kyiv.
In January, Al-Monitor reported that Ukraine got a 30 percent discount for the TB2 drones, paying approximately $7m for each."

A  very interesting thread about present RU conscription cycle:
Oh, and if somebody missed that, Lithuania is not the only country embargoeing Russian exclave. Norway blocked Russians completely from transfering supplies to RU mining colony on Svalbard through Norwegian ports:
 

Regional power maybe, but when your kingmaking influence only extends to Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan, I am not sure it puts a nation in the "global power" club.  Most of the US and Chinese influence has been $$$$ - and as we discussed Russia did not have a lot to start with and even less now. 
I mean, sure, I guess?  But they need that vacuum and just started a war that did the opposite.  I mean that is a bit of a Rube Goldberg Strategy - IF we get the US to contract, AND IF we can count on the Europeans to sit on the sidelines, THEN we can extend influence in Eastern Europe - still without any real economic power, but maybe gas?  So this is the disrupt US and put in "friendly president" theory - which has some merit but I suspect that there are a lot of check and balances in US involvement in NATO (arms industry for one) that even the most isolationist US president could not easily side-step.   Of course his best strategy was patience if this were the case, not this train wreck.  I for one cannot see any rationality in this invasion.  I do see a lot of relative rationality and insular echo chamber type of thinking - building some pretty weak assumptions and no one to challenge them.  
Ok, so now we are getting somewhere...this plus "undeniable defeat" means that people in that power structure is going to start to see that their interests no longer align with El Putin...this is the stuff of quiet "retirements".  To be clear, I am not talking about any dramatic decapitation strikes, or Jason Bourne with a sniper rifle - that is Hollywood BS.  Most times you want an unworkable a$$hat out of power, you simply go down the list to a new a$$hat you can work with and "encourage" him to make his move.  In fact if you have done it correctly you might have a couple fallback options for later.  Problem is that you need to do the work to truly understand that power bloc at the top in high resolution, and there I am not sure if we have done the homework...because global order/new age/thousand points of light/terrorists/pandemic and picking a fight over our own toenails on just about every issue we can.  Putin is a 70 year old man you can take a trip down the stairs like anyone...trick is finding someone who will do the pushing, quietly.
So this requires a level of underhanded "tinkering" we have not done in some time.  And you are correct, it comes with a lot of risk.  In most cases those risks outweigh these sorts of actions; however, not so much right now.  Further if you even hint that you are doing this you can drive a dictator to distraction with justified paranoia, which means he may very well slip up and accelerate the process. 
Regime change is really the final step - we are kind of jumping to the end.  It is everything we do to keep Russian isolated and contained before that happens that is important.  And we are already doing it - they got Canada to agree to sending a Brigade, which is hilarious - considering the Liberal Party is in a minority situation with the NDP propping them up.  Putin managed to unite the left in Canada and made them war hawks - crazy.

Well we have to find one first....

Good to hear that! Looking forward to seeing some videos of these guns in action.

Ukraine has now been earmarked about 20 GMLRS capable systems.
For comparison the entire Gulf War had 89 of these systems. They were operating with significantly inferior ammunition. In the gulf war these systems were one of the main damage dealers of the campaign.