Jump to content

Machor

Members
  • Posts

    618
  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    1

Reputation Activity

  1. Upvote
    Machor got a reaction from BeondTheGrave in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Finally something lighthearted, as an A-10 fanboy: 
     
  2. Like
    Machor got a reaction from rocketman in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Finally something lighthearted, as an A-10 fanboy: 
     
  3. Like
    Machor got a reaction from Vergeltungswaffe in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Finally something lighthearted, as an A-10 fanboy: 
     
  4. Thanks
    Machor reacted to chuckdyke in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Required possibly in an isolated fire base. Depends on the mission. 
  5. Like
    Machor got a reaction from G.I. Joe in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Finally something lighthearted, as an A-10 fanboy: 
     
  6. Thanks
    Machor reacted to BeondTheGrave in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Several reasons. First the reason why chemical weapons arn't really useful is because any modern-ish level of MOPP protection will keep a soldier safe. If Kyiv has been maintaining their NBC systems, their soldiers know how to properly use MOPP under pressure, and they have adequate numbers of suits placed forward, the impact is limited. In the first attack you might see a high casualty incident, essentially caused by the surprise of using the weapon, but casualties after that event would be more limited. 
    So why use them at all? Well a couple of reasons:
    Fighting in MOPP sucks (ive heard). Its hot, its sweaty. If you wear it right your skin cant breath. The mask will limit your field of view, and most vehicles will have to fight buttoned up. Chemical weapons CANNOT serve as an A2/AD weapon, but it can serve as pseudo-A2/AD in that anyone fighting in a particular area will need to do so with an extra barrier to get over.  As a result Chemical weapons can increase friction. Fighting in an NBC environment will always increase casualties. Maybe your suit is torn. Maybe you didn't blouse your boots right. Maybe a minor wound now turns into a deadly vector for gas or contamination. Maybe you took your mask off for some air and thats when the gas rounds come in. It isn't a game changer, but its a friction adder. Like pouring sand in the machine. The issue with this, though, is that gas is side agnostic. Its like a dumb mine. It effects both sides. And while that effect may not start out equal, gas can be unpredictable. A sudden wind change may roll the weapon from their lines onto yours. Or maybe unusual cold turns your weapon into an unexpectedly persistent chemical (such things supposedly happened with Mustard Gas in WWI. Below freezing, the gas turned into a mostly inert oil. If you got some on your coat say and then walked into a dugout and warmed up by the stove, once the gas vaporized youd kill everyone in the dugout).  Gas is great against unprotected populations. That is, its great against civilians who you really cant protect from a gas attack. I mean sure you can issue masks to everyone but those kinds of policies have never really been tested and IMO a gas attack on a civilian population center could easily turn into a mass casualty event. Look at Saddam's use of gas against the Kurds. Or indeed his alleged use of gas against Iranian cities. Gas is a very easy and convenient weapon of terror, and if weaponized properly can be like a mini-A bomb. Sure the blast isn't as spectacular, but few things would protect Damascus better than a SCUD filled with Sarin pointed at Tel Aviv.  
  7. Like
    Machor reacted to BeondTheGrave in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    If Russia defaults, bad things happen. How bad is hard to say. If they default once, theyll probably take a permanent hit to their credit rating and, even if they regain access to the world financial market, will find they have to pay higher interest on their new debts. More people will think Russian debt is junk or too risky, so fewer will buy, so Russia will have to pay more to sell its bonds, so ultimately Russia will have to issue more debt to raise the same amount of cash. If were talking a few percentage points that sucks, .1% on $1b is 1mil. Doesnt sound like much, but obv it adds up. Assuming Russia doesn't miss too many bond payments AND assuming it can actually pay for the debt at some point, not so bad. More like if you miss a credit card payment than miss default on your mortgage. 
    But if Russia starts to miss lots of bond payments, if it spends its warchest on, well, the war and cannot pay back its creditors once it is able, or if once it gets back on the world credit market it decides that the USD is bull**** and it wants to only pay in Rubles, worse things can happen. An interest rate rise of 1% is rough. Of 10% or more is fatal, it would probably ruin the Russian state's finances for a decade or more. If their credit is seen as too dangerous or too risky they may also run into a lack of willing buyers. The people with the kind of capital a state needs to stay afloat are few and far between. If New York looks at a Russian bond issue and says "too risky for my blood" it doesn't matter what the Russian interest rate is. This is the 'sky is falling' outcome. In 1916 Russia was paying a massive interest on its debts, and of course was kept afloat by this huge and convoluted lending scheme in which money traveled from London banks, to the Treasure, to the French Treasury, to Paris banks, to Russian accounts, to the Russian state. And in 1917 this system broke down. Literally overnight the Tsar's bonds went from real things of financial value to very nice collectable art, and the market never recovered. If you held that bond, your value went from thousands or millions to whatever the going rate of TP was. International creditors will panic if they think this is the case, and screw Russia out of the market until some kind of stability is restored. 
    In that case Russia has two solutions (one of which they have available now). First is China. Obviously they can borrow massive sums from China, and China would love to lend. But there are risks in borrowing from China. First the Yuan is a **** currency. Its exchange rate is pegged squarely on what China wants it to be, often keeping it artificially low to benefit exporters. To stave off economic disaster China has, in the past, just unilaterally changed the exchange rate. If you hold large quantities of Yuan, say if youre a sovereign country who is selling their bonds on the Chinese market in exchange for Yuan, well a big and sudden swing in the exchange rate could cost you no joke billions. Second, China is an untrustworthy lender. Their debt is far more expensive than Euro-American debt because London and New York just want cash for cash. But Beijing wants more. Maybe theyll give Russia a sweethart interest rate (cool!) but in exchange demand a portion of Gazprom is sold off to Chinese investors, diverting profits from oligarchs to.... well... Chinese oligarchs. You could see how this would be bad for Putin. And of course if you limit yourself to one source, you run the risk of getting trapped. Maybe today China is your friend. And maybe tomorrow a huge ball of oil is found under Vladivostok. Now China isn't so friendly, but you still need them for your bond issues. This is like the Germany Gas situation but 10 times worse. So the other solution? Go nuclear. Print money. Pay everything in useless Rubles. Default. Go through a massive period of deflation (which is the real killer). Try not to get shot in the prosses. You know just Weimar stuff. 
  8. Like
    Machor reacted to Haiduk in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Here another one, such vehiciles were in 93rd mech.brigade since 2019
     

  9. Like
    Machor reacted to Kinophile in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Russia using older stock missiles...
     
     
  10. Like
    Machor reacted to Combatintman in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I was a month out on my assessment of the fall of Kabul - my first assessment in late May had the house of cards collapsing on September 14.  Hence me getting shipped out on July 02 and covering the final days remotely from my home office, rather than scrambling to get on a plane.  Not everyone in the intelligence community was wrong - just the ones the media/beltway chooses to blame.  It was apparent in 2015 (and before then for anyone who'd had any dealings with them) that the ANDSF weren't going to cut it.
  11. Like
    Machor reacted to Taranis in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I don't really know the Excalibur shell but the BONUS shell which must be quite similar does not really need training.
    You have a programming computer on the CAESAR. The platoon/battery HQ gives you the parameters and you initialize the electronic fuze with a cap. You fire it like a normal shell and it, depending on the parameters (altitude or flight time), splits up, then the "sub-munitions" look for hot spots on their own (engines, etc.) and drop their shaped charge there. For laser ammunition I think the principle is about the same but with a FOO which must keep a laser on the target (like a SACLOS missile). Therefore, for me it's no harder than firing an airburst shell.

    EDIT: according to wikipedia the GPS coordinates of the target (for one of the Excalibur modes) are initialized directly into the fuze when setting it up
  12. Like
    Machor got a reaction from gnarly in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    And the M777 is not unique in this regard; here's the D-30 being towed:

  13. Thanks
    Machor reacted to LongLeftFlank in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    1.  Hitler was himself a victim of a gas attack, so unlike his other delusions he didn't have so many regarding their effects and limitations.
    2. Gas (delivered by shells) is generally understood to restrict battlefield mobility; i.e. slow down attacks.  It took Hitler until 1944 to really internalize Germany was on the defense and wasn't about to resume the offensive, which might have made gas weapons more tempting for him.
    3. By that time, the Allied bombing of the Reich was going on in earnest. The Allies had made it clear prewar that once the Germans began using gas, dropping it on war factories and their adjoining cities was fair game. So that wasn't going to trade off for him, even with V-bombs.
  14. Thanks
    Machor reacted to chuckdyke in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    The stuff is a two-edged sword. It is like using a hand grenade during a domestic argument. You blow the house up and kill yourself as well. 
  15. Like
    Machor got a reaction from TheVulture in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    And the M777 is not unique in this regard; here's the D-30 being towed:

  16. Like
    Machor got a reaction from acrashb in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    And the M777 is not unique in this regard; here's the D-30 being towed:

  17. Like
    Machor got a reaction from Taranis in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Scary as it is, there's expert opinion converging on this. If I had been in Putin's shoes on February 23, I simply wouldn't have launched an all-out war of aggression against Ukraine (I might have done other nasty things, like invade Donbas). If I were in Putin's shoes now, I would escalate to deescalate. Thoughtful thread by Mike Mazarr:
    Russian TV is already playing thermonuclear war (Let's see if anyone gets the reference.):
     
  18. Like
    Machor reacted to Kinophile in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    This war is like CMRT, CMCW and CMBS got together one stormy night and made a very confused demon baby. 
     
  19. Like
    Machor reacted to The_Capt in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Once you have take this beauty on the water, you can only see a shimmering lady gliding across the waters.  Only a “she” could hold me that close and get me home safe every time.  But hey, you be you, love is all good.
  20. Upvote
    Machor reacted to Haiduk in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    In this night Russians struck with heavy bombs from Tu-22M3 the place, under which was Azov's underground hospital. Reportedly one bomb, penetrated into the deep and caused partial destruction of the shelter. Surgical room is destroyed completely, there are casualties among injured soldiers and civilaians. Two days ago Azov showed photos from own underground hospital, where was about 500-600 injured. Medical teams still working in this hellish conditions and perform surgical operations. The hospital was deployed here on the second day of war, when was decided Azovstal would became the main base of Mariupol defense and its last stand.  
    Here the photos, issued two daus ago:



     
     

    And in the same day Russian TV showed as Azovstal employee, the engineer, collaborating with Russians, showed to them under which facilities of Azovstal passed underground communications and where the shelters located. Azovstal is huge plant, which bigger than some Ukrainain cities, for example it bigger than Lutsk. So, Russians before this bombed Azovstal randomly. But looks like after this betrayal they adjusted their attacks and achieved some success. Reportedly after heavy bombs exploded, Russian conducted about 50 single sorties with tactical jets and then shelled territory with naval guns.
    After attacks finished, Ukr troopers became disassemble ruines:
     
  21. Like
    Machor reacted to The_Capt in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Ok, everyone note, this is where Tha Capt and Steve disagree, was bound to happen.  First off, show respect for the venerable "lunch-box war" as it has seen more action that just about any other carrier (I know, the BTR, blah blah).  She still has legs and can still get some jobs done.
    I would not take her directly into battle as all those chain guns will cut her up but lets not forget the more elegant features of this grand dame:
    - Simple, simple, simple.  You can literally teach a junior officer to drive one in an afternoon, from experience.
    - Relatively easy maintenance.  Not as easy as wheeled but very simple analog systems onboard that can be done by driver and crew.
    - Modular.  You can literally stick anything on this thing, so it can fulfill a lot of different roles.
    - Mobile.  People would not believe where this thing can go but this little beetle has great battlefield mobility.
    - Elegance.  You can't stop staring at those elegant lines.  She is built like a German milk maid...seriously I need a minute. 
    So poo-poo all you want Steve, the M113 is one of the finest vehicles to ever grace the battlefield - to know her is to love her. 
  22. Like
    Machor reacted to Taranis in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Dolphins used to protect the Sevastopol base
    According to the Washington Post, citing the US Naval Institute, a think tank close to the US Navy, satellite photos suggest the Russian Navy is using dolphins to protect its ships anchored in Sevastopol. The images provided by Maxar Technologies show two enclosures that were set up in February, explains the daily.
    According to H.I. Sutton, a naval forces analyst, "these dolphins could be used to counter Ukrainian divers who would try to enter the port to sabotage Russian warships", the port of Sevastopol being beyond the range of Ukrainian missiles.
    In 2019, a fearless beluga wearing a harness surfaced in Norway. Local fishermen claimed the animal came from the Russian naval base in Murmansk.
    The US Navy has also trained dolphins and sea lions to protect its naval installations in San Diego, recalls the Washington Post.
     
     
  23. Like
    Machor reacted to c3k in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    ^^^
    The above was in reference to a statement about the Chinese housing bubble. (Embedded quotes don't seem to carry over.)
    Yeah, the US housing bubble is the one I'm familiar with. Not sure about other nations' and their bubbles. The difference is that the Chinese bubble is more like our housing bubble, their personal 401k, and privately held stocks...all wrapped up in a single, non-diversified, investment. Because that's what it is.  The societal effects on China should this collapse as it is feared to...will be epic.
  24. Like
    Machor got a reaction from acrashb in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Claimed to be a TB2 shot down 70 km inside Russia in Kursk, and speculated to have participated in the attack on Bryansk (no missiles):

    You may want to check out what's happening up north here. 
  25. Like
    Machor reacted to Haiduk in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Russian soldier uses GSR 1L111M Fara-VR. This is company level device, but judging of captured personnel lists in many cases the duty of radar operator in company HQ is vacant. 
    On the video soldier detects with this device a group of Ukrainain soldiers and some vehicle in 1000 m - this is current fights on Azovstal and looks like UKR forces even still keeping some armor. 
    He spots marks on display. 
    Fara-VR is upgraded version of SBR-5 (Fara-1) with increased range and lower emission and modernized display. In its turn SBR-5 is modernization of Soviet SBR-3 (and PSNR-5 in vehicle variant), which received display, transforming object signatures to corresponding them marks. 

×
×
  • Create New...