The_MonkeyKing

Thread recommended by Michael Kofman: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1714715790153248909.html

Even though the first attacks were repelled, Russia will likely attack in this direction again in the future. There aren't many similar targets elsewhere. Progress will probably be slow, naturally depending on how much resources Russia will direct into capturing Avdiivka. 9/ 

In Bakhmut, Russians eventually switched from active flanking efforts into capturing the city block by block. If the Russians are fixated on capturing Avdiivka, there can be a long and difficult battle ahead, as Ukrainians are likely just as determined to hold it. 10/ 

In the long run, Ukraine may need to solve the encirclement threat with a counterattack. Especially the northern direction can develop into a real issue. Russians don’t need to advance far in order to make the situation more complicated for AFU. The distances are short. 11/ 

There are some worrying features, even though Ukraine managed to repel Russians for now.
Russia proved two things. It tried to take the initiative in a relatively fresh direction. Secondly, it still has reserves to do it, even though many have claimed the opposite. 12/ 

Even though it seems Russians have learned some lessions from previous offensives, for example from Vuhledar, the tactical outcome of the offensive in Avdiivka was still a failure. This, however, indicates that Russia aims to actively learn and adapt. 13/
 

The RA has what?  300k troops in Ukraine right now?  The are definitely going to keep making trouble.  Lower level commanders know there is enormous heat and light right now to demonstrate success and loyalty to the boss.  Last guy to step out of line got blowed up all over a Russian wheat field.(keep aiming for the bushes Priggy!). So I would expect more RA pushes and nibbles.  Now if they could actually string those together into an operational effect, let alone decision…well we could have a conversation.
UA needs to do same, and I suspect they are still on a track.  I just don’t know if it will pay off.

similar worry about this on the "War on the Rocks"
Some pointers from the episode:
Russian attack on Avdiivka is worrying. Russia has learned. The use of combined arms was on a completely different level than last year (artillery, air force, mechanized forces) and the scale was increased from companies to battalions. Even when it was a failure it was still a big improvement, as we have seen with Ukraine these types of operations are extremely hard to conduct even from competent and motivated forces. If this trend continues, there is cause for concern. Avdiivka shows that Russia feels it is in a strong position, at least proves that Russia is not on the ropes. Avdiivka risks becoming a new winter Bakhmut, i.e. a grinding, consuming battle. The culmination of Ukraine's offensive phase is around the corner. We will probably see the "last show" of this offensive within weeks. The likely goal is a breakthrough that would threaten Tokmak. The goals of the UKR offensives were not achieved. The political leadership announced the goals publicly at the beginning (minimum goal Tokmak, Bakhmut and Melitopol as maximalist obj.). Ukraine gets high marks for a good exchange ratio over the summer operation, especially taking into account the environment. Still, the substantial Russian losses seem to be sustainable for them. Now the eyes are on next year. Russia is going to have to conduct another major mobilization if it wants to "keep up the phase". Russian ammunition sources should not be underestimated. Iran, North Korea, etc. Russia has invested significantly in the war economy of these countries and its own. (note that this Ukrainian summer offensive was also carried out with E-Korean stocks) A significant challenge vs. Western production capacity. Next year, it will be challenging for the West to continue the same level of support as this summer, to enable Ukraine to keep the initiative. The political situation in the United States really becoming worrying. At the political level, complacency has spread in Europe and the United States that Russia is losing and cannot continue the war. The situation is the opposite, the West now has to make expensive decisions for a long war. Russia has resources and resilience as we have seen this year.

Thread recommended by Michael Kofman: https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1714715790153248909.html

Even though the first attacks were repelled, Russia will likely attack in this direction again in the future. There aren't many similar targets elsewhere. Progress will probably be slow, naturally depending on how much resources Russia will direct into capturing Avdiivka. 9/ 

In Bakhmut, Russians eventually switched from active flanking efforts into capturing the city block by block. If the Russians are fixated on capturing Avdiivka, there can be a long and difficult battle ahead, as Ukrainians are likely just as determined to hold it. 10/ 

In the long run, Ukraine may need to solve the encirclement threat with a counterattack. Especially the northern direction can develop into a real issue. Russians don’t need to advance far in order to make the situation more complicated for AFU. The distances are short. 11/ 

There are some worrying features, even though Ukraine managed to repel Russians for now.
Russia proved two things. It tried to take the initiative in a relatively fresh direction. Secondly, it still has reserves to do it, even though many have claimed the opposite. 12/ 

Even though it seems Russians have learned some lessions from previous offensives, for example from Vuhledar, the tactical outcome of the offensive in Avdiivka was still a failure. This, however, indicates that Russia aims to actively learn and adapt. 13/
 

similar worry about this on the "War on the Rocks"
Some pointers from the episode:
Russian attack on Avdiivka is worrying. Russia has learned. The use of combined arms was on a completely different level than last year (artillery, air force, mechanized forces) and the scale was increased from companies to battalions. Even when it was a failure it was still a big improvement, as we have seen with Ukraine these types of operations are extremely hard to conduct even from competent and motivated forces. If this trend continues, there is cause for concern. Avdiivka shows that Russia feels it is in a strong position, at least proves that Russia is not on the ropes. Avdiivka risks becoming a new winter Bakhmut, i.e. a grinding, consuming battle. The culmination of Ukraine's offensive phase is around the corner. We will probably see the "last show" of this offensive within weeks. The likely goal is a breakthrough that would threaten Tokmak. The goals of the UKR offensives were not achieved. The political leadership announced the goals publicly at the beginning (minimum goal Tokmak, Bakhmut and Melitopol as maximalist obj.). Ukraine gets high marks for a good exchange ratio over the summer operation, especially taking into account the environment. Still, the substantial Russian losses seem to be sustainable for them. Now the eyes are on next year. Russia is going to have to conduct another major mobilization if it wants to "keep up the phase". Russian ammunition sources should not be underestimated. Iran, North Korea, etc. Russia has invested significantly in the war economy of these countries and its own. (note that this Ukrainian summer offensive was also carried out with E-Korean stocks) A significant challenge vs. Western production capacity. Next year, it will be challenging for the West to continue the same level of support as this summer, to enable Ukraine to keep the initiative. The political situation in the United States really becoming worrying. At the political level, complacency has spread in Europe and the United States that Russia is losing and cannot continue the war. The situation is the opposite, the West now has to make expensive decisions for a long war. Russia has resources and resilience as we have seen this year.

https://frontelligence.substack.com/p/from-impact-to-assessment-the-luhansk
Tatarigami has a substack. It's quite decent. 

Baltic sea, such a rough place for undersea infrastructure... another telecom link damaged, this time between Estonia and Sweden.
https://www.dn.se/sverige/forsvarsministern-haller-presstraff-om-kritisk-infrastruktur-i-havet/
Must be earthquakes. Or Jaws.

The Ukrainian SOF has posted info on the operation and named it, so it was a missile attack or...?
Full Google translate of the SFO Telegram post
 
 

story develops 

https://www.jordskjelv.no/meldinger/seismic-signal-detected-in-vicinity-of-gas-pipelines-in-the-eastern-baltic-sea 
Seems the world is too desensitized and busy with other crises to notice Russia blow up active energy and communication infrastructure of two NATO countries.

story develops 

https://www.jordskjelv.no/meldinger/seismic-signal-detected-in-vicinity-of-gas-pipelines-in-the-eastern-baltic-sea 
Seems the world is too desensitized and busy with other crises to notice Russia blow up active energy and communication infrastructure of two NATO countries.

https://yle.fi/a/74-20054483
 
By early information, likely an attack on Estonia-Finland gas pipeline yesterday. 
 

Mainly problem for Estonia. Finlands and Estonia's shared LNG-terminal is situated in Finland and this pipe is used for transfers to Estonia. 

story develops 

https://www.jordskjelv.no/meldinger/seismic-signal-detected-in-vicinity-of-gas-pipelines-in-the-eastern-baltic-sea 
Seems the world is too desensitized and busy with other crises to notice Russia blow up active energy and communication infrastructure of two NATO countries.

https://yle.fi/a/74-20054483
 
By early information, likely an attack on Estonia-Finland gas pipeline yesterday. 
 

Mainly problem for Estonia. Finlands and Estonia's shared LNG-terminal is situated in Finland and this pipe is used for transfers to Estonia. 

story develops 

https://www.jordskjelv.no/meldinger/seismic-signal-detected-in-vicinity-of-gas-pipelines-in-the-eastern-baltic-sea 
Seems the world is too desensitized and busy with other crises to notice Russia blow up active energy and communication infrastructure of two NATO countries.

story develops 

https://www.jordskjelv.no/meldinger/seismic-signal-detected-in-vicinity-of-gas-pipelines-in-the-eastern-baltic-sea 
Seems the world is too desensitized and busy with other crises to notice Russia blow up active energy and communication infrastructure of two NATO countries.

story develops 

https://www.jordskjelv.no/meldinger/seismic-signal-detected-in-vicinity-of-gas-pipelines-in-the-eastern-baltic-sea 
Seems the world is too desensitized and busy with other crises to notice Russia blow up active energy and communication infrastructure of two NATO countries.

https://yle.fi/a/74-20054483
 
By early information, likely an attack on Estonia-Finland gas pipeline yesterday. 
 

Mainly problem for Estonia. Finlands and Estonia's shared LNG-terminal is situated in Finland and this pipe is used for transfers to Estonia. 

https://yle.fi/a/74-20054483
 
By early information, likely an attack on Estonia-Finland gas pipeline yesterday. 
 

Mainly problem for Estonia. Finlands and Estonia's shared LNG-terminal is situated in Finland and this pipe is used for transfers to Estonia. 

https://yle.fi/a/74-20054483
 
By early information, likely an attack on Estonia-Finland gas pipeline yesterday. 
 

Mainly problem for Estonia. Finlands and Estonia's shared LNG-terminal is situated in Finland and this pipe is used for transfers to Estonia. 

I was out for a while today, I come back to see hundreds of Israelis dead, plus hostages.  And what will this accomplish for the Palestinians?  More suffering.  Nice binge but the hangover is gonna be deadly.
Starting this thread to get the discussion out of the UKR war thread.

Interesting article:
 

well, ISW is "calling it".
 
 

Yeah, now the first "magic word" has been achieved, that being breakthrough. The word has been in the news for the whole summer prematurely.
Now "Breakout" might not even be something Ukraine is going to try. If they see it as too risky and choose to keep endlessly pushing the Russians back as they have seen best so far.

We want the one above “breakthrough”.  Ignore “encircled”.  Breakout, is regaining freedom of movement and therefore tempo, therefore creating decision superiority and expanding options spaces.  Last Fall we saw UA breakout battle, we want that.  Enough of these tactical breakthroughs adding up as the RA system erodes might just do it yet.

well, ISW is "calling it".