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The_MonkeyKing

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  1. Upvote
    The_MonkeyKing reacted to Vanir Ausf B in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    This.
    It's also possible that Russia is moving them around between airbases (what the US Air Force calls reactive maneuver).
  2. Upvote
    The_MonkeyKing got a reaction from Vanir Ausf B in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Around 100 hits in this compilation
  3. Upvote
    The_MonkeyKing reacted to Carolus in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Ah, expensive was probably the wrong word in this context. And your point about what damages could be prevented is a good one. 
    But in my mind, Storm Shadow is a weapon that has basically strategic value for Ukraine. It is not used to knock out single vehicles, but command posts, logistical hubs and other such targets which have strategic or operational value for the RA. 
    Thank you for your elaboration, that hits the nail on the head.
    It is scarcity, not monetary worth, that I meant to express. Specially since the RA is dispersing the helicopters o. the airfield.
    Isn't there an ATACMS warhead which is filled with cluster submunitions?
    Another argument for their usefulness to Ukraine and why they should be provided.
    Storm Shadow, JDAM, GLSDB (which are supposed to arrive this year) or Taurus (if Germany decides to supply them) are all warheads which provide single focused effect or general HE.
    GMLRS would be suitable in terms of effect (tungsten pellets) and numbers, but don't have the necessary range.
  4. Like
    The_MonkeyKing got a reaction from Bulletpoint in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Sure there are some duplicates and I saw a couple of clear misses. Also maybe even most are past mine kills that are being totaled with the ka-52.
    Still, the volume says a lot. One month of action rivals the kills of TB-2 for the whole duration of the whole war: https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/defending-ukraine-listing-russian-army.html or the kills of ZALA Lancet https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/11/hit-or-miss-russian-loitering-munition.html
    with one confirmed ka-52 kill from the Ukrainians. And that was on the ground.
  5. Like
    The_MonkeyKing got a reaction from Bulletpoint in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Around 100 hits in this compilation
  6. Upvote
    The_MonkeyKing reacted to dan/california in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Quantity has a quality all its own said someone, somewhen. There are publicly available satellite pictures of Russian helicopters sitting in the on air fields in Northern Crimea. The issue is that repeated disasters have at least taught the Russians to disperse them. So Ukraine would only get one or two helicopters per missile. Whether or not that is a good deal depends on how many missiles you have, and how much damage the helicopters are causing. The choppers have proved to be a problem, so if there are enough missiles on hand...
     
    I think a lot of the ATACMS awaiting upgrade are currently DPICM war heads. They would actually be far MORE useful to Ukraine, for things like killing helicopters. We would just have to get over ourselves. While we were at it we could send Ukraine a few tens of thousands of the older M26 rockets for the HIMARS. The grid square deletion experience might have noticeable effect on Russian morale. 
  7. Like
    The_MonkeyKing got a reaction from akd in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    https://old.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/14ma03g/ukrainian_strela10_of_the_93rd_brigade_shoots/
    A pretty darn clear view of Strela-10 shooting down drones. I am not 100% certain this isn't part CGI
    Is it possible CM got this wrong? It seems these short-range missile AA systems can shoot down pretty darn small drones.
  8. Upvote
    The_MonkeyKing got a reaction from benpark in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    https://old.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/14ma03g/ukrainian_strela10_of_the_93rd_brigade_shoots/
    A pretty darn clear view of Strela-10 shooting down drones. I am not 100% certain this isn't part CGI
    Is it possible CM got this wrong? It seems these short-range missile AA systems can shoot down pretty darn small drones.
  9. Upvote
    The_MonkeyKing got a reaction from Butschi in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    That is something I, or anybody can do with a couple of $ 20-a-month subscriptions and a couple of hours of time.
    Just think what professionals with a budget can do. And indeed are doing.
  10. Upvote
    The_MonkeyKing reacted to DesertFox in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
  11. Like
    The_MonkeyKing reacted to Vanir Ausf B in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    That was horrible.
    I don't understand why they couldn't back up the Bradley closer and drop the ramp right next to the soldiers. Hell, dropping the ramp ON the soldiers would have been preferable. It's almost like there's a 3 meter safely regulation they must obey.
  12. Thanks
    The_MonkeyKing reacted to cesmonkey in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Another Kofman interview:
    https://www.cnas.org/publications/podcast/the-battlefield-landscape-in-ukraine-with-mike-kofman-and-konrad-muzyka
  13. Upvote
    The_MonkeyKing reacted to Harmon Rabb in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
  14. Like
    The_MonkeyKing got a reaction from Lethaface in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
  15. Upvote
    The_MonkeyKing got a reaction from MOS:96B2P in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I think the rock/paper/scissors logic of defense and offense methods is a factor;
    Now Russia has been preparing to counter Ukrainian "Blitzkrieg" with big reserves and in-depth defense. Ukraine on the other hand is now advantaged by attacking this defense with limited attrition/gains-type attacks (Ukraine gets to engage the defenders piecemeal and local superiority)
    I am sure if and when Russia transitions to forward defense Ukraine transitions to something more like "Blitzkrieg".
    In the winter Russia was attacking Ukrainian forward defense piecemeal with "attrition"/"limited gains". Bad matchup for the Russians.
     
    illustrative matrix of how this rock/paper/scissors logic:

    image source: https://youtu.be/7dWf4ueZ9qU
  16. Like
    The_MonkeyKing got a reaction from CAZmaj in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I think the rock/paper/scissors logic of defense and offense methods is a factor;
    Now Russia has been preparing to counter Ukrainian "Blitzkrieg" with big reserves and in-depth defense. Ukraine on the other hand is now advantaged by attacking this defense with limited attrition/gains-type attacks (Ukraine gets to engage the defenders piecemeal and local superiority)
    I am sure if and when Russia transitions to forward defense Ukraine transitions to something more like "Blitzkrieg".
    In the winter Russia was attacking Ukrainian forward defense piecemeal with "attrition"/"limited gains". Bad matchup for the Russians.
     
    illustrative matrix of how this rock/paper/scissors logic:

    image source: https://youtu.be/7dWf4ueZ9qU
  17. Like
    The_MonkeyKing got a reaction from Taranis in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I think the rock/paper/scissors logic of defense and offense methods is a factor;
    Now Russia has been preparing to counter Ukrainian "Blitzkrieg" with big reserves and in-depth defense. Ukraine on the other hand is now advantaged by attacking this defense with limited attrition/gains-type attacks (Ukraine gets to engage the defenders piecemeal and local superiority)
    I am sure if and when Russia transitions to forward defense Ukraine transitions to something more like "Blitzkrieg".
    In the winter Russia was attacking Ukrainian forward defense piecemeal with "attrition"/"limited gains". Bad matchup for the Russians.
     
    illustrative matrix of how this rock/paper/scissors logic:

    image source: https://youtu.be/7dWf4ueZ9qU
  18. Upvote
    The_MonkeyKing reacted to Grigb in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Dmitiry already translated Prig comments about real situation. Here is confirmation that situation for RU is very difficult - from "agent" Thirteen (infamous RU soldier in Kherson-Zaporozhye area)
    [EDIT] For those who do not want to spend time listening to Prig here are main points:
    Pyatikhatka is under AFU control [is not new for us] The northern section of Robotne is under AFU control [is new for us] Urozhaine is under AFU control [is not new for us] Prig concludes that the UKR controls huge areas of land AFU unit (50-10) is located near Tormak in the Sadove village [is new for us] RU MOD has no control over anything [is not new for us] Total shortage of weaponry and ammunition (including anti-tank weapons) [is not new for us] AFU advances [implying successfully] toward Molochny Lyman [village on the Azov seashore south of Melitopol - if AFU reaches it, the RU grouping will be split in half]. [is new for us] AFU begins crossing the Dniepr - there were recon parties at Hola Prystan [a town south-west of Kherson] and now the main troops begin to arrive [is new for us] RU suffers casualties but no reinforcement [is not new for us] RU units are understaffed by 50-60% [is not new for us] Everything up there has been hidden from everybody. The Russian military command is fooling Putin and the Russian people [is not new for us] Disparaging Shoigy and the RU MOD,  concludes the Russian army is being destroyed [is not new for us] The UKR counter-offensive causes significant losses for RU, which is not being acknowledged [is not new for us] Bla-Bla-Bla [is not new for us]
  19. Upvote
  20. Upvote
    The_MonkeyKing got a reaction from dan/california in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    That clears it up. Strange that they choose to call it an "error". 
    The US is moving from the most strict way of counting the amount to the loosest. From replacement capacity cost to the equipment's value on the accounting books.
  21. Upvote
    The_MonkeyKing got a reaction from Huba in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    That clears it up. Strange that they choose to call it an "error". 
    The US is moving from the most strict way of counting the amount to the loosest. From replacement capacity cost to the equipment's value on the accounting books.
  22. Like
    The_MonkeyKing got a reaction from acrashb in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I would think Congress might care when the budgets they approve starts living their own life by tens of billions 💸
  23. Upvote
    The_MonkeyKing reacted to dan/california in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    No one is claiming the U.S. is run better than Finland, no really we do NOT make that claim. It is just that this rambling wreck of a system has produced the worlds most powerful military, and I simply don't care what budget shenanigans the President has to pull finish beating the Russians in Ukraine. Doubly so when Putin is actively manipulating and funding the worst people in our system.
  24. Like
    The_MonkeyKing got a reaction from Richi in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    What the is going on here? 
    There are many ways to count the aid value sums. Write-off value on the accounting books, what it cost when it was new, or the cost to replace the given capability. 
    Now the US is changing how it calculates the value. At the start did the US want to exaggerate the aid given for some reason and now thanks to US internal politics they hope to avoid going to legislative to increase the total aid budget? So they start counting in the most "cheap" way.
    In my country, it would be a very big thing when tens of billions of money's appear or disappear from anything government related.
     
  25. Upvote
    The_MonkeyKing reacted to dan/california in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Retired NOAA guy, his maps have maps. A lot of detail worth thinking about. There are even maps of where the roads were before the dam, Which might matter.
    Many, many maps.
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