gnarly

Enemy artillery destroyed a section of the second bridge to Siverodonetsk. Their artillery tried to do this more than a week, could hit bridge several times, but only slightly damaged it. And now they have success. The last bridge remained, but it was in bad conditions already before a war. This puts again a question of city defense expediency. 
The defense of Siverodonetsk is obviously political decision, so in society there is many criticism about this and demands to Armed Forces Command "don't listen Zelenskyi and to withdraw our guys to Lysychansk immediately". Though, looks like Siverodonetsk like and Rubizhe previuosly now playing a role of "meat grinder". Main forces, that ae storming the city and villages around are not Russians, but 2nd and 7th motor-rifle brigades of LPR + some battalions of conscripts rifle regiments. Russians probably represented with Kadyrov's forces and 31st air-assault brigade. 
Inside the city our troops hold industrial zone and quarters around it. LPR/Russians occupies NE and E parts of the city. All other space is just a place of artilery and airstrikes and deadly "counter-strike" games, as told commander of "Legion of Freedom" - one of the unit, holding the city. This is volunteer unit under Nationmal Guard comamnd, mostly of members of political moderate nationalist party "Svoboda" ("Freedom")

 

https://www.rollingstone.com/culture/culture-news/ukrainian-military-unit-russia-artillery-1365021/
Good article, not particularly cheery. Author is a former Marine.  

So for the record, calling Jomini a "little conservative" is akin to calling Billy Graham "a little religious" - the man tried to create a deterministic theory of warfare based on geometry, and Clausewitz called him on it...and frankly I think Uncle Carl was extremely conservative by modern standards.
That said, I am not sure what the story is around Severodonetsk to be honest.  I completely disagree with J of the West assessment that Severodonetsk is a "strategic decisive point for the RAF" and by taking it they gain "a pivot for operations" and a "pivot for manoeuvre".  If we look at wiki for the latest situation:

And then a G-Earth shot (I will try and do an MFSF flight later):

None of what J of W is stating as "importance" makes sense.  If this was a break out battle over the river and to take Lysynchansk, maybe.  But his argument that the "undefendable terrain of the western Donetsk Oblast" on the other side of this river, also make no sense as we know the RA advances out of Popasna have stalled.  As have the attempts coming down from the North out of Izyum...this is all the same type of rolling terrain spotty with water features.  The idea that if the RAF somehow takes the far bank town of Severodonetsk it is set up for a rolling breakout manoeuvre battle is sensationalism at best, and applying metrics from the Gulf War to this one at worst.  If the RA takes Severodonetsk, they still have a major water obstacle dominated by a very long ridge line to try and assault, then more urban area, and then rolling terrain which the UA has stopped them on along other axis.  So seriously, WTF "Jomini of the West"?
This battle is likely more along the lines of Verdun albeit what I suspect are for different reasons (I am not sure of the historical angle but Haiduk did mention this was a big fight in WW2).  This is a "I want that" and "you can't have it...jerk" type fight.  The UA is there because it is a spot they can make the RA's life miserable an pull in forces. The RA wants it...well why does the RA want anything?  Likely because Putin has been briefed and figures it is also "really important" for reasons.
This battle is interesting in 1) it is definitely attritional, and 2) it looks like it may be the one spot where the Russians have managed to create information parity (but I have a major caveat to this).  The noise about guns and UA casualties is just that "noise".  The UA is not stupid, that is one thing they have proven in this war.  They would not be holding onto a far bank defence - one they really do not need - unless there was some serious advantage attached to it.  My bet is that it comes down to two things: the concentration of arty and EW.
Lets leverage Jomini for a second and lay it out (in some ways he was not wrong):

I am going to be extremely generous here and say the RA has its guns positioned within 30km of Severodonetsk based on ranges (D-20s do about 18 and the Pions can reach out at about 37, so for arguments sake).  That is a slice of a pizza that is 188 km around.  The Russians can realistically put their guns in about 1/3 of that circle - so about a 63 km arc, which translates into about 942 sq kms.  At "900 guns" that is a density of a gun per sq km.  That is a pretty high density of gun positions - not WWI - but likely the highest of this war.  Further you have all the logistics to support all them guns.  
Finally, the RA has concentrated a lot of EW to try and make this op box go dark for the UA: https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-kyiv-technology-90d760f01105b9aaf1886427dbfba917  All these emitters are pumping out an ungodly amount of EM and easily visible.
So what?  Well there is a lot of talk of Ukrainian losses in this fight, and I believe them.  But war is negotiation and sacrifice.  Those lives are not being spent for the far bank town the UA really does not need.  They are likely being spent to pull in the concentration of arty and EM...so the UA can hit them - attrition, like tracers, cuts both ways.  What is missing from all this is the RA losses on key arty, EM and logistics because  they are concentrating them around and on top of this operationally near-worthless town, that when successfully taken will bring all the joy of a colicky baby because you still have to take that brutal set of ridges...on the other side of a freakin river.
We have no idea how bad the Russians are taking it right now, because "dark box"...but you know who does...the UA.   The one thing all that EW cannot turn off are the space-based ISR assets that the West (primarily the US) are beaming directly to the UA.  All those RA assets are very visible to multi-spectral space-based ISR and I have every faith are being hit regularly in this fight; it is the only thing that makes any sense - the UA are trading infantry for RA arty, EW and logistics right now.  If they wanted to trade infantry-for-infantry they would be doing it from all those ridges, which is the the obvious fallback position.
The Russians on the other hand are trading their own critical resources so that Putin can declare a "great victory" of very little military value - just like they have done throughout this war.

IIRC, this was one of the plot points of the dire Red Storm Rising - steely eyed CIA analyst realises the Rooskies are gonna invade soon after theres a sudden increase in expansionist propaganda movies on Rooskie TV.

Incredible.
Haiduk's in for a hell of a surprise when he gets back on his pc...
FUNDED!

$1500 to get him a new laptop. Amazing. Thank you, everyone who donated.
 

Now it was a story line in a really crappy 80s mini-series (I actually remember watching this as a kid)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_III_(miniseries)
"Out of the plane, the Soviets launch a secret incursion into Alaska. The Soviets have inserted a cold weather Spetsnaz assault force of approximately 35-40 KGB desant ski troops led by Soviet Colonel Alexander Vorashin (Jeroen Krabbé) into northern Alaska with a track-driven armored vehicle. Vorashin's orders are to seize control of a strategically-located pumping station along the Trans-Alaska Pipeline to threaten the placement of floating explosive devices in the stream of oil and to destroy substantial portions of the pipeline. The operation is being conducted in response to the US grain embargo of the Soviet Union, just as the 1980 grain embargo was in response to the 1979 Soviet Invasion of Afghanistan."
Now was this fiction being remembered as truth, or truth that wound up in fiction?

That return fire was definitely small arm fire which tells me that the Russian infantry was very close already. I suspect that the Javelin teams didn’t properly reconnoiter the area to make sure it was free of Russian troops. Very bad move. If I was the Russian leader, I’d have my men immediately area-fire in the direction of the very audible launch. You should always be able to assume the AT weapon is in the best concealment it can find.

Javelin team gets a missile off, then comes under fire.
https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFootage/comments/v8qoiq/the_fgm148_javelin_operator_hits_an_enemy_target/
Few things I thought were interesting:

They get spotted real fast- looks like the missile might have a bit of a vapour trail (don't think Javelin usually has one, so could be the local conditions?)

There are at least two Javelin teams.

Hard to tell, but they don't look like they're bugging out as soon as the missile is fired. In theory they should be able to due to the fire and forget capability- so maybe they think it's safe enough to hang around, maybe they need to keep the AT capability up or maybe it's really hard to *not* watch your missile hit the target.

I guess it makes sense…
 

Interesting drone perspective:
https://t.me/savelifeua/876

Thanks ) Just became some more of work, my wife turned back and often occupies PC because her work, also it's hard to live three months 24/7 as war news translator, so I took small vacations 

This is that first famous large column of Rosgvardia, destroyed in first or second day of war. All this did 6th company of 92nd mech.brigade near Kutuzivka village NE from Kharkiv. The company in Day 1 turned out itself in the rear of Russians, because they advanced forward too fast, trying to enter in Kharkiv. In first contacts the company lost 3 BTR-4E, but despite this company commander decided to break through back to Kharkiv. The company, heading toward the city, encountered with large columnn of Rosgvardia/OMON, which drove in the same direction. Commander immadiately ordered to attack them - as result almost whole column was destroyed, but from full elimination Russians were saved because two their tanks appeared on the road and engaged UKR company. Two more BTR-4E were knokced out by tanks, so rest of company broke contakt and on full speed reached Kharkiv.

That's the epitome of an oxymoron... To which I can relate directly

That's the epitome of an oxymoron... To which I can relate directly

NOTHING is worse than bicycles, there are literally 17 different standards for bottom brackets now. It can only be described as intentional industry self sabotage. They are trying to drive their customers nuts, nothing is compatible with anything.
We really shouldn't go down this rabbit hole should we.......?

Politicians, however....
 
https://www.euronews.com/culture/2022/05/30/uk-to-revive-imperial-measurements-to-bring-back-british-culture-and-heritage-says-mp
 
[Sorry, off-topic...]

Politicians, however....
 
https://www.euronews.com/culture/2022/05/30/uk-to-revive-imperial-measurements-to-bring-back-british-culture-and-heritage-says-mp
 
[Sorry, off-topic...]

Eh, I blame the programme manager - he's the one responsible for making SURE discrete elements of the project interact properly. Mind you, no self respecting engineer would be using non-metric in the first place, so theres that.

Not wrong, but not entirely correct either.  Ukrainian defence was brilliant in the opening phase of this war.  We don't know much and likely will not get the full story for some time, however, the plan for the Phase I defence was decisive in itself.  If the UA had tried to fight the same way as the RA and sought decisive battle, it could have gone poorly.  Instead what we saw was a hybrid warfare campaign for the history books.
First Ukraine had (and still has) information superiority.  They are on their home ground and were also being fed western intel from before the war started.  This mean that in places like Hostemel, they could concentrate and defeat the RA initial moves in detail.  I think Hostomel is also a battle for the history books and was decisive in this war.  The RA tried to use SOF and Light in concentration and failed enormously, once again underlying that when misemployed SOF and Light are extremely vulnerable [aside: it is odd on all the talk of the "death of the tank" but we have not seen a lot on the "death of airborne/heliborne].  Russia made that airfield snap central to their main effort, it was their Plan A, and it collapsed in a couple days.
Second, Ukraine set up what I can only describe as an unconventional warfare defensive campaign.  This was hybrid in nature (a mix of conventional and unconventional forces) and looks a lot like what the Norwegians have set up in their Northern districts - for obvious reasons.  Basically, we had TD and irregular forces defending their local regions, backed up - and very importantly linked by UA SOF.  These forces were already in location along that very long initial front line and armed with next-gen smart-ATGMs, UAVs and comms.  Those comms linked them back to UA artillery creating an entirely distributed defence network - or at least that is my working theory.  The Russians sticking to road networks, lit up by ISR of all sorts were then hammered all along their own system - F ech, A ech, B ech and all the way back to SLOC nodes.  All that Russian armor/mech, the ready-force of the RA was cut to pieces in the first month of this war by that system; this wasn't "war amongst the people" this was war of the people. 
Third, Ukraine's political level, assisted by a massive social media effort allowed Ukraine to win the strategic narrative, even before the war crimes.  We all started to cheer for the little guy and realized that this war was an political and strategic opportunity.  All that money and aid, essentially the military industrial complex of Ukraine, was riding on getting this part right...and the Ukrainians did it very right.
I am not like Steve to be honest.  I had no idea how this war was going to go before it started.  It wasn't until about 72 hours in that it became very apparent that something was happening that no one in the business predicted.  That is when the sickness symptoms of the Russian system began to appear. 
Could Russia have won? Of course, no war is pre-determined.  Ukraine could have split or simply failed to resist - they could have ignored western intel, Zelenskyy could have run and/or capitulated.  Or the Russians could have had a much better plan - why they did not make the capture of Lyviv and disruption of all western support the main effort is beyond me.  But they did not, and now they really cannot.  No matter how this little dance in the Donbas goes, Russia has lost this war already.  There is no renormalization after this.  Sweden and Finland are not going to change their minds, those sanctions are going to stick as economies re-wire.  Ukraine is not going to "de-militarize" nor is it going to go quietly back into Russia's sphere with a friendly government.  Russian hard power is empty, to the point that I would not be surprised to see more disruptions in it near-abroad- Russia as a state might already be dead, it just does not know it yet.

I haven't seen any content posted by Haiduk lately, I hope he is doing OK. His updates were most enlightening. 

Is it time to talk now?
 

I am always skeptical of people claiming certain equipment or contributions will be war changing, I've heard that since February 24th and yet to see any of it pan out. There's also a lot of best-case-scenario type situations being bandied about with MLRS, and it may be strictly factual but often doesn't take into account reality. I think HIMARS or the M270 will be a good asset for Ukraine and give them a useful capability, but I doubt it will be war changing and there is still a lot that is contingent on what they actually will receive, and how much. 

Looks like this is not antimaterial rifle, but DSHKM-TK, popular crowdfund upgrade of DSHKM during positional war since 2016. Each fire support company in battalion has 6 such HMGs or mix of TK and usual DSHKM. This is some average between HMG and AM rifle, which shoot with short bursts. Mostly used against fortified positions, MG nests, light armor etc. Unlike ususal DSHKM, which just maintaned "density of fire", upgrades of DSHKM-TK allows it to fire with more accuracy and precision, so skilled gunner can use it like a sniper rifle. DSHKM-TK also can be equipped with thermal sight. Special trainings since 2016 were established for DSHKM-TK gunners, so the gunner could hit a "man" target from 800 m at least with one bullet from ten, usung usual mechanic sight.

T-84 Oplot mod.2001 in action. Last known place of service of theese 5 tanks was 14th mech.brigade. Probably they involved on Popasna - Bakhmut axis
Single specimen of BM Oplot belongs to manufacturer and doesn't participate in combat. Or at least wasn't spotted yet

Not sure if this has popped up here yet: everybody's favourite river crossing.