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Bulletpoint

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  1. Like
    Bulletpoint reacted to Butschi in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    This sounds a lot like the Russian narrative, that Ukraine is just a US/NATO puppet. But we know this is a lie, Ukrainians can do whatever they wish, it is not like we can forbid them.
    The real point is that the same is true for us. We support Ukraine entirely by choice, not because we have to. What's more, unlike Russia or China, we don't have dictators who can just spend money any way they see fit. Our governments have to justify giving money to Ukraine instead of spending it in their respective country (Germany is currently deep in a budget crisis and aid for Ukraine was among the very few points that were not under scrutiny). That works because it is not orcs fighting orcs but good guys defending against bad guys.
    I totally get the frustration but on the other side I think all the negativity about Western support is unwarranted. In less than 2 years the West pledged well beyond 100 billion € for supporting a country that we are not allied with. And that number does not include costs for harbouring refugees or costs related to sanctions. All while still having to manage the aftermath of the pandemic and fighting climate change. Yes, we could have done better but we could also have done a lot worse.
  2. Like
    Bulletpoint got a reaction from Raptor341 in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I'm not the guy you're asking, but couldn't help but chime in here..
    Why should fear and intimidation go one way? It doesn't necessarily, but in Russia, it all comes down to what one single guy thinks, and whether that single guy is intimidated or not. While over here in the West, someone like Biden can't just decide to play hardball because he feels like he's old anyway and has nothing to lose.
    We are a lot who all have a lot to lose, and since we don't live in a dictatorship, our opinions matter - at least collectively.
  3. Like
    Bulletpoint got a reaction from JonS in How Hot is Israel Gonna Get?   
    It's easy to get tangled up in all the details about what "they" did and what "we" did and how of course we are justified because X, Y, and Z while they are definitely not. Exact same arguments on both sides, and the discussion never ends.
    But I think there's a bigger thing at stake here. The entire Western culture is built on the ideas that we adhere to higher principles, rule of law, human rights, equality etc.
    This soft power is what makes people in small countries like my own believe that we are not mere vassals of the US, as the Russians call us, but allies fighting for the same cause.
    This is also why we rally behind the US when it comes to Ukraine. We don't want to live in a world dominated by Russia, because that's not a world based on those principles.
    If the only difference between living under the US or Russia is whether I get sent to Siberia or Guantanamo if the government decides it doesn't like me, or whether I get assassinated by poison tea or a reaper drone, then why should I care who rules the world?
    We're still not in a world where the US and Russia are equally bad. But I feel the US is moving in that direction with this support for Israeli war crimes, which is of course exactly what Russia wants.
    Russia wants to leave people in the West confused, divided, indifferent and cynical about everything. If the Hamas attack was somehow orchestrated by the Kremlin, then that was a very effective move.
  4. Upvote
    Bulletpoint got a reaction from Aragorn2002 in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    It was not international conventions or humanitarian concerns that kept the US from sending cluster munitions to Ukraine, because neither Ukraine nor the US have signed those conventions.
    The point here is that it was not the reluctance to "fight like orcs" but the fear of escalation that kept those munitions away from Ukraine. As Russia decided to escalate, those weapons were eventually released.
    But even now, I don't think it's Western sensibilities that is hurting the Ukrainian ability to fight effectively. Escalation fear is still what keeps supplies back.
    Even tiny Denmark has given or pledged to give more than 77 tanks. How many did the United States pledge?
    76 MBTs, according to Wikipedia. Seventy-six. While you have around 6000 Abrams, thousands of them just sitting in storage...
  5. Like
    Bulletpoint got a reaction from Ales Dvorak in How Hot is Israel Gonna Get?   
    It is clear that Hamas murdered hundreds of Israeli civilians on Oct. 7. Including some children. But cutting heads off babies.. I have not seen any credible evidence of that.
    But it does bring to mind the old story that "Iraqi soldiers ripped babies from incubators" story. Which was later found to be a complete fabrication in order to stoke anger and support for the Iraq war.
  6. Like
    Bulletpoint got a reaction from niall78 in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Ok, so go ahead then. Fight like orcs.
    What will you do? Shoot prisoners on sight? Torture them? Use human shields to advance (if that's what the video actually shows)?. Force young Ukrainian men to advance into minefields at gunpoint? Fire (more) drones at Moscow? Go to a Russian town to rape women? Steal toilets and washing machines?
    How will any of that help you win this war?
     
  7. Upvote
    Bulletpoint got a reaction from dan/california in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    It was not international conventions or humanitarian concerns that kept the US from sending cluster munitions to Ukraine, because neither Ukraine nor the US have signed those conventions.
    The point here is that it was not the reluctance to "fight like orcs" but the fear of escalation that kept those munitions away from Ukraine. As Russia decided to escalate, those weapons were eventually released.
    But even now, I don't think it's Western sensibilities that is hurting the Ukrainian ability to fight effectively. Escalation fear is still what keeps supplies back.
    Even tiny Denmark has given or pledged to give more than 77 tanks. How many did the United States pledge?
    76 MBTs, according to Wikipedia. Seventy-six. While you have around 6000 Abrams, thousands of them just sitting in storage...
  8. Like
    Bulletpoint got a reaction from 'Sapper' in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    It was not international conventions or humanitarian concerns that kept the US from sending cluster munitions to Ukraine, because neither Ukraine nor the US have signed those conventions.
    The point here is that it was not the reluctance to "fight like orcs" but the fear of escalation that kept those munitions away from Ukraine. As Russia decided to escalate, those weapons were eventually released.
    But even now, I don't think it's Western sensibilities that is hurting the Ukrainian ability to fight effectively. Escalation fear is still what keeps supplies back.
    Even tiny Denmark has given or pledged to give more than 77 tanks. How many did the United States pledge?
    76 MBTs, according to Wikipedia. Seventy-six. While you have around 6000 Abrams, thousands of them just sitting in storage...
  9. Like
    Bulletpoint reacted to JonS in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    If you want to be the good guys, you have to do the good things.
  10. Like
    Bulletpoint reacted to sburke in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    And from our perspective, If UKR troops are behaving the same way as Russians, then why would we be involved at all?  You either represent something different i.e Human rights and democratic values or we won't have skin in this.
    I understand the frustration Haiduk feels, but being different than the Russians is entirely the point.  And it is not impossible to win.  Despite the frustrations and the ongoing destruction that Russia commits, the fact is Ukraine still stands despite the overall imbalance of forces.
    Just wish my own Gov't would get its act together and seriously commit itself wholeheartedly to knuckling Russian under.
  11. Upvote
    Bulletpoint got a reaction from Butschi in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Ok, so go ahead then. Fight like orcs.
    What will you do? Shoot prisoners on sight? Torture them? Use human shields to advance (if that's what the video actually shows)?. Force young Ukrainian men to advance into minefields at gunpoint? Fire (more) drones at Moscow? Go to a Russian town to rape women? Steal toilets and washing machines?
    How will any of that help you win this war?
     
  12. Like
    Bulletpoint got a reaction from Tux in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Ok, so go ahead then. Fight like orcs.
    What will you do? Shoot prisoners on sight? Torture them? Use human shields to advance (if that's what the video actually shows)?. Force young Ukrainian men to advance into minefields at gunpoint? Fire (more) drones at Moscow? Go to a Russian town to rape women? Steal toilets and washing machines?
    How will any of that help you win this war?
     
  13. Like
    Bulletpoint got a reaction from alison in How Hot is Israel Gonna Get?   
    It's easy to get tangled up in all the details about what "they" did and what "we" did and how of course we are justified because X, Y, and Z while they are definitely not. Exact same arguments on both sides, and the discussion never ends.
    But I think there's a bigger thing at stake here. The entire Western culture is built on the ideas that we adhere to higher principles, rule of law, human rights, equality etc.
    This soft power is what makes people in small countries like my own believe that we are not mere vassals of the US, as the Russians call us, but allies fighting for the same cause.
    This is also why we rally behind the US when it comes to Ukraine. We don't want to live in a world dominated by Russia, because that's not a world based on those principles.
    If the only difference between living under the US or Russia is whether I get sent to Siberia or Guantanamo if the government decides it doesn't like me, or whether I get assassinated by poison tea or a reaper drone, then why should I care who rules the world?
    We're still not in a world where the US and Russia are equally bad. But I feel the US is moving in that direction with this support for Israeli war crimes, which is of course exactly what Russia wants.
    Russia wants to leave people in the West confused, divided, indifferent and cynical about everything. If the Hamas attack was somehow orchestrated by the Kremlin, then that was a very effective move.
  14. Like
    Bulletpoint got a reaction from The Steppenwulf in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Ok, so go ahead then. Fight like orcs.
    What will you do? Shoot prisoners on sight? Torture them? Use human shields to advance (if that's what the video actually shows)?. Force young Ukrainian men to advance into minefields at gunpoint? Fire (more) drones at Moscow? Go to a Russian town to rape women? Steal toilets and washing machines?
    How will any of that help you win this war?
     
  15. Like
    Bulletpoint got a reaction from quakerparrot67 in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Ok, so go ahead then. Fight like orcs.
    What will you do? Shoot prisoners on sight? Torture them? Use human shields to advance (if that's what the video actually shows)?. Force young Ukrainian men to advance into minefields at gunpoint? Fire (more) drones at Moscow? Go to a Russian town to rape women? Steal toilets and washing machines?
    How will any of that help you win this war?
     
  16. Upvote
    Bulletpoint got a reaction from Butschi in How Hot is Israel Gonna Get?   
    It's easy to get tangled up in all the details about what "they" did and what "we" did and how of course we are justified because X, Y, and Z while they are definitely not. Exact same arguments on both sides, and the discussion never ends.
    But I think there's a bigger thing at stake here. The entire Western culture is built on the ideas that we adhere to higher principles, rule of law, human rights, equality etc.
    This soft power is what makes people in small countries like my own believe that we are not mere vassals of the US, as the Russians call us, but allies fighting for the same cause.
    This is also why we rally behind the US when it comes to Ukraine. We don't want to live in a world dominated by Russia, because that's not a world based on those principles.
    If the only difference between living under the US or Russia is whether I get sent to Siberia or Guantanamo if the government decides it doesn't like me, or whether I get assassinated by poison tea or a reaper drone, then why should I care who rules the world?
    We're still not in a world where the US and Russia are equally bad. But I feel the US is moving in that direction with this support for Israeli war crimes, which is of course exactly what Russia wants.
    Russia wants to leave people in the West confused, divided, indifferent and cynical about everything. If the Hamas attack was somehow orchestrated by the Kremlin, then that was a very effective move.
  17. Like
    Bulletpoint reacted to Haiduk in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    UKR troops lost almost all gains of previous two months west from Robotyne. 
    Situation here and in Donetsk oblast is very bad. UKR troops exhausted almost without rotations for several months of intensive combat. Many companies turned into platoons. In that time, when Russian moved here fresh troops or have opportunity to replenish battered units directly on the place or during short-term rotations in close rear. 
    I suppose brigade general Tarnavskiy, who is commander of Operative-Strategic Troops Groupment "Tavria", which operated from Donbas to Zaporizhzhia oblast can have very hard talk with Stavka soon...

  18. Like
    Bulletpoint reacted to Haiduk in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    After about two year of assaults, artillery shellings and bombing, Russians could seize "Ukrainian Hirosima" the place, which was Maryinka town. Piles of trash and crushed bricks under which previous streets can't be recognized, with some more or less "boxes" of houses, surviving on the west of town - here that got Russians. UKR troops still control small part of town on north-west, but for Russians western part of Maryinka is more important - here they got access to the road on Kurakhove, important town on Donetsk oblast, where thermal power plant is located. Despite on shellings and damages it still work.
       
  19. Like
    Bulletpoint reacted to Haiduk in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Today we have very loud night. At 3-00 Russians launched 10 ballistic missiles on Kyiv from Briansk oblast. It was combined strike of S-400 and Iskander-M. Our Patriot crews again were on the top and shot down all missiles. But, alas, because missiles were detectad again with delay, there were interceptions over the city itself, so fragments of them and at least two warheads fell down with detonations. 
    More - 6 of theese missiles have fell in 2-3 km from my home. I heard very loud explosions and seen bright spashes in darkness through the curtain.
    Objectives of Russian strike obviously were two thermal power plants and water pump station, feeding left-bank part of Kyiv (it located in 2 km from my house). This station has chlorine supplies for water disinfection, so hit of reservoir could lead to local chemical catastrophe. 
    In result of attack 53 citizens were wounded (most of them by debrises of window glasses), 18 of them were hospitalized (2 kids amid them). Several multistorey houses, kindergarden and one hospital corps got damages from missile fragments, there were fragmnents impacts in tall house under construction, the warhead of shot down missile impacted and exploded on the avenue in 2 km from my home, making large crater, so the movement was closed
       



     


  20. Like
    Bulletpoint reacted to Zeleban in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Extremely alarming news from the bridgehead at Krynoki from Mashovets. It looks like the Russians managed to create from the newly created airborne divisions a truly combat-ready unit capable of effectively storming positions.
    The enemy is making significant efforts, regardless of losses, to push our units back into the river floodplain. He has been carrying out almost continuous attack and assault operations with the forces of the 104th Airborne Division for more than four days.
    Units of its 328th and 337th air assault regiments are attacking the positions of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in this settlement. both from the southwestern direction (from the Cossack Camps, along the coastal road, and through the forest located south of the village).
    Next, it will be a little unusual, direct speech from my insider:
    "The bridgehead now rests solely on mines. The air assault division began to drive directly into positions from the forest in an infantry fighting vehicle and land troops. There was a day when everyone thought that the bridgehead would be pushed into the water. And we were all urgently involved in mining in the rain. We flew in the rain because we had no choice. And the mines had been completed several weeks before, so a high percentage of explosions were required immediately.
    All assaults stop at mines. They have been attacking continuously for four days, but we have stabilized the situation a little and they are not reaching our positions. In fact, it's hell here right now. In a week and a half, the Rashians lost up to 10 armored personnel carriers, up to 10 tanks and 20-25 infantry fighting vehicles. The forest and Krynki are littered with iron. But the meat storms continue. Today is the first day when the assault was limited to the 2nd armored personnel carrier. Unfortunately, our progress (meaning on the left bank) has been stopped..."
    This is a direct speech from one of the commanders of the Ukrainian tactical units conducting combat operations on the left bank of the Dnieper. This was written yesterday, December 12th. That is, General Teplinsky did not lie.
    He continues to launch his direct subordinates - units and subunits of the 104th Airborne Division (in his permanent position, he is the commander of the Russian airborne forces / airborne forces) into continuous attacks in the area of the village of Krynki, just to liquidate the Ukrainian bridgehead.
    For those who forgot, I’ll remind you.
    The 104th Airborne Assault Division belongs to the so-called “newly formed” (or “recreated”) divisions of the Russian Airborne Forces, deployed as part of the general process of deploying the enemy’s strategic reserves. From the beginning of its formation, it was called the 104th Airborne Division of the Mobilization Reserve and its composition included, to put it mildly, rather “strange” units and units, staffed by “mobilization units.”
    But over time, the Russian command took the process of obtaining a more or less acceptable level of combat effectiveness for this formation more seriously. And during 2023, it acquired the features of a full-fledged airborne division, which, in fact, the 104th Airborne Division is now trying to demonstrate near Krinki, showing an “exorbitant” level of aggressiveness in attack/assault operations, despite the fact that it flies from our Marines to The answer is quite sensitive.
  21. Like
    Bulletpoint reacted to Haiduk in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Denmark will send next military aid for Ukraine on 1 milliard USD

  22. Like
    Bulletpoint reacted to The_Capt in How Hot is Israel Gonna Get?   
    There's your problem.  Of course the IDF needs to prove that there were 11,000 to 22,000 Hamas fighters in each of those buildings who constituted such an immediate threat that it was worth dropping an entire building to kill...what?  Maybe 0.8 to 1.6 of them?  BBC lists the damage as much more widespread:
    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-67565872
    Al Jezeera notes that 50% of residential housing has been destroyed:
    https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/11/10/israeli-bombardments-damage-more-than-half-of-gazas-housing-units
    As to numbers of civilian dead...ok, so what is a "warcrimes level of destruction" then?  2? 12 per building?  The law says that even one civilian killed indiscriminately constitutes murder.  What arbitrary number means warcrime, if it is not "one"? 
    I actually do not think anyone can say definitively that Israel is killing civilians indiscriminately and weird deaths per building really does not work as a metric.  Incidents where hundreds were killed in basements have occurred and need to be investigated.  The IDF is one bad shoot away from a horror story.  The potential wacrime we  can see is the level of destruction occurring outside military necessity.  It is a war crime to ethnically cleanse an area by making it uninhabitable.  Now if Israel were to put a few billion into a UN controlled reconstruction fund there could be an argument made.  But my money is that Israel has zero interest in Gaza reconstruction and will likely actively oppose it. 
    Hamas needs to be destroyed, no argument.  They committed egregious warcrimes, no argument.  The IDF leveling entire neighborhoods on the flimsy excuse "there are some fighters in there" as a cover for a ghetto clearing...argument.  
     
  23. Like
    Bulletpoint reacted to The_Capt in How Hot is Israel Gonna Get?   
    Amen.  This speaks to the larger issue.  No point "winning" if we have to become the bad guys to do it.  We fight to defend something more than security.  We fight for an idea.  How we fight impacts the integrity of that idea.  Right now the idea of Israel is taking tremendous damage.  This is what we have been supporting for decades?  They are looking worse than Russia right now with respect to indiscriminate strikes...and that was one helluva low bar to get under.  
    If the idea is corrupted by "some people are more equal than others", we are dead in the water.  
  24. Like
    Bulletpoint reacted to The_Capt in How Hot is Israel Gonna Get?   
    You do realize that the laws of armed conflict were written because all of the unconstrained warfare of the 19th and early 20th century?  They started with The Hague conventions in 1899 - and in fact the Lieber Code in the 1860 kicked things off.  The main purpose is to try and remember that there is a world states need to live in after the war.
    But ok, let’s buy into your framework for a second.  So the Russian massacres in Ukraine in places like Bucha, deportation of children, along with the civilian terror missile strikes they have been waging…where do we sit in those?  Because in your framework we will be unable to prosecute or hold to account because Russia is only trying “to win as fast as possible”?
    As to chemical or even nuclear weapons.  Well Hamas would now live under the same framework.  First off, we could not even prosecute for all the horrors they committed.  Second there would be zero legal restraint in Russia or Iran supplying Hamas with chemical or even nuclear weapons.  In fact under the framework you describe Hamas could legally employ them to “hit harder”.
    The problem with “only one rule of war” thinking is that people forget that it applies universally.  What they more often mean is “the opponent has to follow the rules but we don’t”. Or they really mean “well let’s ditch these ‘rules’ but keep those ones”.
    Lastly, the Rule of Might led directly to both WW1 & 2, the fact that the US had to “nuke Japan” is a bad thing you realize?  Both those wars were not “good news” and sparked a lot of our attempts to reign in warfare.  Legal restraint is designed to curtail the escalations we saw in both World Wars because they were bad for humanity.  
    We do live with a thin veneer of civilization, that much is true.  But why would we abandoned the laws that hold that veneer together.  I mean, how does that make things better?
     
  25. Like
    Bulletpoint reacted to Holien in How Hot is Israel Gonna Get?   
    Hmmm I wonder if mistakes were made after that where folk used the incident for their own political ends which then had / continue to have impacts today.
    Pity we don't learn from our past. 
    BTW I predict further forced migration to Europe, the Russian playbook being used by others...
    Maybe some folk do learn?
    Anyway thanks @The_Capt for trying to explain that there is another way of doing things which would be legal and still deal with the scum of Hamas.
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