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Heirloom_Tomato

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  1. Like
    Heirloom_Tomato got a reaction from A Canadian Cat in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Hopefully the world can someday make them do the same for every house and vehicle in Ukraine.
    https://www.ctvnews.ca/world/russia-accidentally-bombs-own-village-vows-to-rebuild-homes-1.6708978
  2. Upvote
    Heirloom_Tomato reacted to The_Capt in How Hot is Israel Gonna Get?   
    I honestly am not really understanding what AP is going on about.  I mean we can all accept that there have been sins and atrocities agains the Jewish people perpetrated by various actors since the Egyptians.  They have been an oppressed people…it is a pretty large club.
    I, for one, have not seen “anti-semstic or antizionist” talking points.  To question the Israeli treatment of Palestinians or its handling of the situation is not anti-Semitic any more than pointing out excessive behaviours in the IDF.  I am seeing many point of view blaming one side or the other.
    And to be absolutely fair, I have not seen egregious anti-Arab sentiment. Some biases perhaps but compared to some comments on this forum after 9/11 the conversation has been remarkably restrained.  I did ask if we were holding onto anti-Arab grudges which could border on racism based in our western experience.  I don’t think anyone here really does but we should likely remain on guard…I know I have to.
    I think it fair to discuss the political context in which this war is happening.  In fact it is critical in an asymmetrical conflict of this type.  I have no idea what the politic solution for this irreconcilable collision between Israelis and Palestinians is but I am fairly certain that I am not seeing it every morning with my coffee right now.
    But perhaps we have beat this horse to death.  And let’s face it, we are not really going to solve anything.  As to the military picture, well I have not really seen anything new.  UAS and tunnels are interesting but not fundamentally altering.  The information space is likely where the most interesting stuff is happening as the battle for the narrative continues.  Beyond that, I am interested in just how a complete security failure before 7 Oct could happen, I do not think we have seen the bottom of this yet.
    As to the rest.  A grinding urban fight with civilians trapped in it.  Why has no one jacked up Egypt in all this?  I mean 2 million people trapped in a shrinking box but Egypt won’t open its borders?  My own biases from travelling and working in these parts of the world has to be kept in check.  But watching an Arab nation (and Egypt is Arab as they come, no matter what people say about ‘ancient lineage’) let that sort of humanitarian crisis unfold on their doorstep boggles the mind.
  3. Like
    Heirloom_Tomato got a reaction from Sojourner in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Hopefully the world can someday make them do the same for every house and vehicle in Ukraine.
    https://www.ctvnews.ca/world/russia-accidentally-bombs-own-village-vows-to-rebuild-homes-1.6708978
  4. Upvote
    Heirloom_Tomato reacted to The_Capt in How Hot is Israel Gonna Get?   
    You see it right here.  Even people on different sides are just people.
    I am indigenous.  Cree and visible enough to get pinged on the street.  And I think this trend of white guilt is incredibly harmful and in some case just plain wrong - it is a topic of hot debate around The_Capt family table I can tell, especially with my daughter.
    It is relevant that you mention it because it is exactly what we are wrestling with at the staff college right now: Are we teaching future senior officer "how to think" or "what to think".  I am in that first camp, deeply.
    The reality is that racism exists in just about every culture on earth since the dawn of time.  Native Americans had a slave trade long before white men even showed up.  It was broader then economics but it definitely was there.  To lay all the modern ills on the White Man's table is nothing more than a convenient excuse to avoid dealing with internal social dysfunction goin back generations.  White men have got sins, there is no doubt about this, but they do not give me license to abuse my wife and family or lean on substance abuse.
    Now where we likely differ is on the "so what?"  Our aim moving forward is to stare all that bad directly in the face and say "Ya, ok. But not me and mine."  I could give two figs about white colonialism, my son is going to be a lawyer and master the system at its own game.  I can be proud of my heritage (good and bad) and still be better at this world.  And make damn sure my kids are even better than me.
    I am not pro-Israel or pro-Palestinian.  I am pro "let's stop acting like a bunch of insular and scared primates and evolve to the bigger game and better natures our ancestors really had in mind."  It is hard.  It is not fair.  But we can be better than them...that is what they really wanted for us in the first place.     
  5. Upvote
    Heirloom_Tomato reacted to Zeleban in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    In general, in my opinion, missile attacks on Ukrainian cities today play a negative role for the Russians. Russia today is conducting one of the most successful information and psychological campaigns against the Ukrainian state. The Kremlin has successfully undermined Ukrainians' faith in its leadership and is quite successful in countering the mobilization of Ukrainians, pitting them against military officials.
    However, massive attacks on rear cities reduce the effectiveness of these informational and psychological actions, returning Ukrainians to reality and indicating who their true enemy is.
  6. Thanks
    Heirloom_Tomato got a reaction from David Jaros in The British Forces Campaign - Highland Games   
    If this is the vehicle carrying the Forward Observer, then it is not a bug. The warrior in question is the artillery observation variant which features a dummy cannon. The real cannon has been removed to make space for the observation equipment and a dummy cannon left in place to appear to be a regular vehicle.
    I hope you gave the mission a play through anyways and are enjoying the campaign!
  7. Upvote
    Heirloom_Tomato got a reaction from Fizou in Annual look at the year to come - 2023   
  8. Like
  9. Upvote
    Heirloom_Tomato reacted to Haiduk in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Weather conditions...
    UKR ATV driver of 135th TD battaion of 114th TD brigade (Kyiv oblast) after evacuation mission under ice rain
    Forest road near Lyman
    Russian T-72B has sunk. Vodiane area, south from Avdiivka

  10. Like
    Heirloom_Tomato got a reaction from Centurian52 in Annual look at the year to come - 2023   
  11. Upvote
    Heirloom_Tomato reacted to Chibot Mk IX in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Regarding the recent news about the death of Chinese citizen Zhao Rui, who participated in the Russian Army, renowned pro-Russian war correspondent Lu Yuguang has compiled and published the following article based on accounts from Zhao Rui's teammates.
    Translate with ChatGPT
     
    永远留在顿巴斯的老乡:赵睿|中国体育联赛|中国职业运动联盟|乌军|俄军|副司令|莫斯科|顿巴斯_手机网易网 (163.com)
  12. Upvote
    Heirloom_Tomato reacted to The_Capt in How Hot is Israel Gonna Get?   
    No I don’t think that was the point of his post.  He wasn’t calling for a direct evidence of every Israeli death.  He was highlighting that there was no evidence of Hamas’ most alleged brutal crimes.  I think his point was that over inflation of that brutality is being some used to give license to IDF potential warcrimes - which frankly are starting to stack up.
    In the end I would not be surprised if Hamas did some pretty horrible stuff and the reports of 7 Oct are actually true to a greater or lesser extent.  It also does not matter.  Warcrimes do not justify more warcrimes legally or morally.  A beheaded Israeli baby is just as dead as a Palestinian one how had a JDAMs dropped on them.  And we have seen plenty of dismembered Palestinian children…hell it is with our morning coffee now.
    The IDF should be held to higher standard than Hamas.  They are supposed to be the good guys.  Now we have reports of the IDF shooting aid agencies, their own people and vigilante actions against Palestinians in the West Bank.  As soon as we cannot tell who the good guys are anymore we are basically at Sudan where @sshats on both sides are waging war illegally.
    This of course is a problem with sustaining international support and at some point even the US is going to draw back.  Like when pictures of starving Palestinians are flashed up on the news, or another massacre.  What is truly disturbing is that our primary democratic partner in the Middle East not only completely dropped the ball leading up to 7 Oct, they are driving the follow on operation into a crater.
    We are finally hearing reports that the Israeli justice system is starting to get engaged (you know, the one Netanyahu tried to castrate).  So we may see some action. But right now Israel looks out of control and is making things so much worse.  
  13. Upvote
    Heirloom_Tomato reacted to Anthony P. in How Hot is Israel Gonna Get?   
    Agreed, that's another aspect to @Probus' argument: there's an awful lot of wiggle room in how "destroyed" and especially "damaged" is qualified. A leveled house is clearly destroyed, but how does a house count if a wall has been blown out? Does a broken down door mean that a house is counted as damaged? Etc., etc.
    Another aspect is the absurdity of the refugee situation: in a normal war, Israel wouldn't have had to be concerned/made responsible for bouncing 2 million Gazans around like some kind of migrant ping pong game, because they would simply have crossed the border into Egypt and stayed in refugee camps there for a couple of months while the IDF and Hamas duked it out.
    But to the Arab world, accepting the prospect of Palestinians crossing a border is basically tantamount to putting on a kippah and announcing that the country will be joining itself to Israel as a new municipality (the slew of civil wars and political assassinations which Palestinian refugees have brought with them to their Arab brethren likely doesn't help make a compelling case for accepting them either).
  14. Like
    Heirloom_Tomato reacted to Haiduk in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Today we have very loud night. At 3-00 Russians launched 10 ballistic missiles on Kyiv from Briansk oblast. It was combined strike of S-400 and Iskander-M. Our Patriot crews again were on the top and shot down all missiles. But, alas, because missiles were detectad again with delay, there were interceptions over the city itself, so fragments of them and at least two warheads fell down with detonations. 
    More - 6 of theese missiles have fell in 2-3 km from my home. I heard very loud explosions and seen bright spashes in darkness through the curtain.
    Objectives of Russian strike obviously were two thermal power plants and water pump station, feeding left-bank part of Kyiv (it located in 2 km from my house). This station has chlorine supplies for water disinfection, so hit of reservoir could lead to local chemical catastrophe. 
    In result of attack 53 citizens were wounded (most of them by debrises of window glasses), 18 of them were hospitalized (2 kids amid them). Several multistorey houses, kindergarden and one hospital corps got damages from missile fragments, there were fragmnents impacts in tall house under construction, the warhead of shot down missile impacted and exploded on the avenue in 2 km from my home, making large crater, so the movement was closed
       



     


  15. Like
    Heirloom_Tomato reacted to The_Capt in How Hot is Israel Gonna Get?   
    If a party signed onto the conventions then they apply to every conflict they will find themselves within.  This would be why even the IDF have not started using chemical weapons.  As to your list:
    "Level a city that produces vicious terrorist by the 1000s"....well yes.  There are no provisions to wipe out an entire city just because it produces threats.  You can target legitimate military targets in that city but wholescale destruction is against the law.  This would be why the US did not simply carpet bomb Fallujah or any other Iraqi city in the 00's.  We also did not do the same in Afghanistan.  The law says we play be the rules even when the other side does not.  "It is a war", yes that is my point entirely.  WW2 was not a "good" example of how we wanted to fight wars.  I know we have a lot of WW2 fans on a wargaming site but the consensus at the end of that was was that things got way out of hand.  So the international community, the same one that created the state of Israel, elected to stand up the LOAC framework.
    At this point if I was an IDF general I suspect I would be fired for moving far too slowly because I would be looking at very deliberate tactical operations that I could defend at The Hague.  I would remove and an all troops who could be considered emotionally compromised from a kill chain and then make damned sure I had a lawyer in the JOC for every major shoot.  I would not devolve authority for airstrikes below my level.  I would have some pretty strict interpretations on the ROEs and enforce them.  When engaged I would not simple throw HE at a problem.  I would try a scalable approach to prove I did everything I could to reduce civilian casualties.  None of this is "pie in the sky".  Hamas is not a conventional military.  It is very light and insurgency like. Hamas is not going to counter-attack.  We have been fighting insurgencies for 20 years and not once employed what we see in Gaza right now.  It is miserable and slow work but there we are.  A lot of terrorist base are also not suicidal.  So isolation and time can play.  If you take fire return it in kind.  Nothing wrong with overmatch, but it needs to be scaled.  Take fire from a floor, return it.  Even hit it with a tank round.  I may kill any civilians in the same room as the terrorist, but I do not drop the whole freakin building unless I know htere are no civilians inside.
    Why I would care so much about this is because I know my country has to live in this world once this is over.  My code of ethics, beaten into me since basic, says I will be righteous in delivering violence and committing homicide on behalf of my people.  If I cannot do that, then I should not be in the job.  It may take longer and take risks.  If I have soldiers who would rather they live and 20 Palestinian children need to die to make that happen, I want them out of my outfit.  I would relentlessly pursue and kill Hamas fighters and anything supporting them, but I am not going to kill civilians indiscriminately.  It may take years of slow steady pressure.  The political crisis in Israel because the PM and cabinet completely sh#t the bed on security is not my problem.  Waging the war legally is.
    Then I would be looking for the civilian agencies to support the humanitarian fight and ensure we get between the civilians and the fighters.  Again, long hard and thankless work. And it may even fail.  But that is better then waging a war of extermination on a bunch of innocent people in the long run. [Not saying that is what Israel is doing definitively, but as a senior IDF leader it would be my primary concern.]  I have fought in an insurgency war and this is the gig.  We did not slaughter people when we took casualties, we went after the bomb makers.  We went after the leadership and we tried to get in between them and the people.  We even failed in the long run (less tactics, more politics) but we came away about as righteous as we could.  I did not shame myself or my people - and we kept the bad guys busy for a few years, so saved some lives there...I will take that. 
    So slow, painful and legal is the alternative.  There is no fast, painless and legal in a war like this. 
  16. Upvote
    Heirloom_Tomato reacted to Splinty in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I did 20+ years in the US Army. I went to Desert Storm and did 2 tours in Iraq. You have no idea at all about our professionalism and our capabilities. You know even less about Americans and what we will or will not fight for. Drop this stupid argument, and let's get back on topic.
  17. Upvote
    Heirloom_Tomato reacted to Haiduk in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Well, it seems the season of mass strikes is opened. But maybe this was a "greeting" with Holodomor Memorial Day and Maidan anniversary (was three days ago)
    Since 6-00 of morning Kyiv survived most mass Shakheds attack ever seen - 66 were shot down over Kyiv oblast and Kyiv city. I counted dozen explosions. Total 75 Shakheds were launched from Kursk oblast and Kuban' region. UAVs were launched in several waves more then in 20 groups. Southern groups were circling in Kyiv and Cherkasy oblasts, awaiting arrival of northern groups from Kursk, then they simultainously were attacking the city from different directions. Attack has been lasting almost 2,5 hours. 
    Air Defense Command has reported about 71 from 75 shot down Shakheds, then corrected this information to 74 from 75. Also one Kh-59 missile was shot down in Dnipropetrovsk oblast

    In result of attack fragments of falling Shakheds damaged power lines in central part of Kyiv, so about 200 buildings now without a power. Two subway stations, located on open surface on the left bank of Kyiv are without power too. Also power lines were damaged in Vyshhorod district of Kyiv oblast - north from Kyiv. The buildng of kindergarden was badly damaged either with Shakhed impact or his falling part, containing a warhead. Five people suffred from attacks, but got only light wounds or just high stress.   
    Air Force Command claims about 40 % of destroyed Shakheds are on the count of mobile groups, armed with different machine guns, ZU-23-2 and projectors, mounted on pick-ups. I also heard work of Gepards and launches of missiles. 
    But this photo shows a dangerous of such "fire show" watching near the window - the bullet of UKR AA group, falling from the sky hit the frame of appartment window. It already hadn't enough energy to penetrate the frame, but if it hit the window itself, the people behind could got injuries.
      
    In this time some Shakheds were painted in dark color, maybe this is against their spotting by projectors, but maybe this is special cover for radar dispersing. Some people talk this could be newest Shakhed-238, but this UAV has jet engine, whilst this night Shakheds had a typical "moped" sound
      
    Newest Shakhed-238 for comparison

  18. Upvote
    Heirloom_Tomato reacted to akd in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Another insane clip from 3rd Assault Brigade (and excellent demonstration of the value of an APC in the assault):
     
  19. Upvote
    Heirloom_Tomato reacted to Zeleban in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    On one fine day, I was concussed when an enemy shell exploded literally a meter from a hole into which I jumped at the last moment. Then another stone flew into my ribs and I thought with relief that now I was wounded and would go to rest.
                  But it was just a stone, and all I got was a very bad headache for the next few months. When the very active phase of the assault ended, the service was established, then I finally transferred to Petrichenko's gang to fly the Mavic. How it was and what it cost is a separate story.
                  It was there that we encountered the moment when the enemy left Kherson. Yes, the enemy left in November. But in my opinion, these were the first steps towards them leaving. In the next thread, I will tell how they left, how we entered the villages, how I climbed the enemy's positions and how I almost died.
                  Were there any wild moments? So. Were there any problems? So. But let me tell you about them after the war. Not to go storming Pisky now.
     
     
  20. Upvote
    Heirloom_Tomato reacted to Zeleban in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    We spread out, raised the drone. Yes, we corrected ourselves so as not to clog the radio channel with chatter. There were no conversations on the radio. A minimum and only on business. Everyone knew what to do and so on.
                  We barely had time to throw a couple of mines to hit the targets, and armor and infantry rushed past us. The heart was pounding. The tanks have already finished their work and left. Our infantry was approaching enemy positions, we (mortar battery), AGS calculations, fuel... Everyone was shooting at the enemy.
    But the enemy also started shooting at us. The first shell flew 100 meters from us, the guys immediately looked at me. Were they shooting at us? Maybe. But was it possible to drop everything and hide? No. I began to shout that this is not our fault, that the enemy simply missed and will now redirect.
    And for everyone to immediately continue shooting. At the same time, I detected explosions and corrected them. It was clear that they would not be able to work on all our fire means at the same time. And therefore it was necessary to shoot as much as possible.
                  There was complete chaos around. Everyone and everything was shooting. Projectiles were flying, everything was exploding, and the infantry reported that they were landing on enemy positions. At that moment, we were already moving to the next positions and shooting there. Ammunition consumption was crazy, but it looks like our plan worked.
    The enemy threw a couple more shells at us and switched to infantry. After assessing the available ammunition, I asked the guys to bring us more. Ours secured new positions, there was a couple of minutes of rest before the next attempt. It was terribly hot.
                  Later, we received a command to change our position even closer. We piled into pickup trucks and drove in the direction of the front. Our next fire was almost at the place where "zero" was literally just recently ("zero" - the closest position to the enemy).
                  I was thinking only one thing while driving. F**k this platoon, f**k this army. Why am I not on the 120th mortar, which is far from the front. But I said out loud that the enemy had fallen and everything was going well for us. The people had to be encouraged
                  During that day, we changed positions many times, and even then almost all of our positions were where the enemy had been before. That is, the front was moving. And we also buried the suspension on the car. Armored vests, sleeping bags, sometimes automatic weapons, RPGs, the bodies of the occupiers were lying in the forest strips...
                  But at some point we could no longer move on. Everyone stayed where they were. Shells were constantly flying, during the day we took significant hits from enemy artillery a couple of times. They shot well and did not spare the projectiles at all.
                  We spent the night in the forest, we were given ammunition and food. In the morning, they went to look for new firing positions and the road. It was necessary to make sure that the road was not mined. We immediately prepared our firing positions near the holes that the enemy once dug.
                  We came close to Ternovi Pody. We could not go further. Why? You will understand when I write the next thread. It was the end of August, beginning of September. Then the total pressing of the enemy with artillery began. Everyone was shooting and from everything. There were days when we fired 100+ mines per day from one mortar.
  21. Upvote
    Heirloom_Tomato reacted to Zeleban in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Okay, to distract everyone from conspiracy theories, I’ll translate a very interesting article by a Ukrainian mortarman about his participation in the Kherson offensive. The article gives an understanding of the offensive tactics of the Ukrainian Armed Forces:
                  According to my personal belief, the defense forces in our area switched to active assaults in the second half of August.
                  It all started with the fact that our battalion was removed from its position and another battalion took its place. We moved a little, regrouped.
                     I was infinitely "lucky" and at that moment two commanders of the unit were dismissed from the unit. That's probably why they said to me: "Congratulations, you're the platoon commander? You'll provide people with information, you'll control it." The last thing I wanted was for someone to die under my command.
                  At the briefing, everything looked optimistic and wild at the same time. I understood that it was a high bet that the enemy would run away. Considering the fact that we had both 120 and 82 mortars, I was put in command of 82. Because they have to be much closer to the contact line. And the line, in turn, will move. So the guys will have to constantly move to get to the targets. When I came and outlined to them the task that was set for me, in their eyes you could clearly read something like: "what are you, stupid!?".
               The task was as follows. While the long-range artillery was working on the enemy's artillery, the forces of the battalion and several guns of the brigade had to destroy the enemy and press them to the ground so that our infantry could storm. In particular, we had to suppress the enemy's machine gun units.
                 Everything was supposed to happen like this: Our infantry loaded on the armor and went bluntly (the effect of surprise, quickly, ammunition on the armor) to the enemy positions. At that time, the artillery works against the enemy (machine guns, ATGMs, automatic grenade launchers) preventing our infantry from being destroyed.
                  When it was clear from the drone that our infantrymen were approaching the nearest enemy positions, we shifted our fire to their next positions and pressed them to the ground. In order to immediately reach the planned targets, we had to drive very, very close to the contact line. So close to where they used to walk at night or run if it was daytime. At that moment, I explained to the guys that this must be done, because if we do not suppress machine guns, grenade launchers and ATGMs, then our guys in armor will simply be destroyed. Was I scared? Yes. Only fools are not afraid. I explained the work to everyone as much as possible, we determined in advance the points from which we would shoot, how, where and when to move.
                  The battle began: first the artillery worked, Grad's, then a couple of tanks rolled out, they hit the enemy's position with direct fire. Since the enemy was very busy with tanks, we drove into the first line of fire almost unimpeded.
  22. Upvote
    Heirloom_Tomato reacted to The_Capt in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    I am pretty sure that automatically makes you a Canadian citizen.
  23. Upvote
    Heirloom_Tomato reacted to Thewood1 in How Hot is Israel Gonna Get?   
    You want tactical discussions?  Try this.
    https://www.steelbeasts.com/topic/17301-the-story-of-a-merkava-company-co-on-october-7th/
     
  24. Upvote
    Heirloom_Tomato reacted to The_Capt in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    It is not worthless I fear, it is bad lessons.  People will walk away with a bunch of factoids about mine breaching systems and suddenly are “experts” around the water-cooler.  From this they can draw all sorts of really bad conclusions.
    The biggest reason why mine breaching systems fail is because someone kills them while they are trying to do their job.  Watching that video can easily lead someone to think “well send them better kit” - we saw this with the tanks in spades.  And then we send them better kit and it still doesn’t work.  “Well they must be doing it wrong cause the YouTube guy said…”
    The entire point of putting up an information piece is to provide people with the knowledge to make better sense of phenomena.  For this one needs expertise.  We see the death of expertise in modern era.  Anyone with a channel can suddenly be an expert in anything.  For example, retired SF guys with YouTube channels talking about formation level logistics.  They never served in a J4 staff or been trained as a professional logistics officer.  But they rub SF “Ranger” patches and suddenly they know what they are talking about.
    This is just misinformation and in many cases is just chasing likes and subscribes.  Problem is that it can easily slide into disinformation and outright fiction.  The worst sin are people like Macgregor who know better but keep spreading false info regardless.
    I do not know what to do about it.  I am not a social media expert…but maybe if I did a YouTube channel…
    I for one can only try to do the best I can in this little forum in outer rings of the information sphere.  And on this one backwater thread on a tiny wargaming companies back…we can aspire to do a bit better.  The rest of the internet will just have to sort itself out.
  25. Upvote
    Heirloom_Tomato reacted to Zeleban in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Be that as it may, I can say that times have changed. compared to last year. I had a development project. But because of the war, I decided that civilian projects would not benefit my country and decided to join the Ukrainian armed forces. Moreover, recently chronic diseases are not considered an obstacle to recruitment
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