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Probus

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  1. Like
    Probus reacted to chrisl in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Given that they couldn't even pull off a successful propaganda launch, I gotta disagree on that.
    How would they even know the nukes won't work?  When was the last time they did a test?  All the people who developed them are dead or work in the west now.
    Even if they're not terribly complicated to design, they take regular maintenance, and stuff like that turns out to have a shelf life for all kinds of reasons that aren't and sometimes couldn't have been anticipated when they were first built.
  2. Like
    Probus reacted to sross112 in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Or just hold a referendum? You know, fair and impartial like the ones in Ukraine. There is a significant Chinese population in their old territory that houses Vladivostok. Would also actually play very well to the Chinese population. My understanding, not an expert, is there is still a pretty sore spot among the Chinese about the unequal treaties forced on them by western powers. This could be Xi's chance to rectify one. 
    It would be so fulfilling to see Russia's games turned against them. I get all giggly just thinking about it.  
  3. Like
    Probus reacted to sburke in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Court sentences Russian pilot to 12 years in prison for dropping bombs on Kharkiv TV tower (yahoo.com)
    now broadcast that on hacked Russian TV and call his family to let them know visiting hours etc
  4. Like
    Probus reacted to dan/california in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Been saying this for months. Xi can attack Taiwan, destroy the world economy, and almost certainly the CCCP. Or he can bite off the easternmost quarter of Russia, say "sorry Vladimir" and be the toast of Davos, this shouldn't be a hard choice.
  5. Like
    Probus reacted to pintere in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Lavrov turned into Laughrov
     
  6. Like
    Probus reacted to Seminole in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    In October 2022, about eight months after the beginning of the war in Ukraine, the University of Cambridge in the UK harmonized surveys that asked the inhabitants of 137 countries about their views of the West, Russia, and China. The findings in the combined study are robust enough to demand our serious attention.
    Of the 6.3 billion people who live outside of the West, 66% feel positively towards Russia, and 70% feel positively towards China. 75% of respondents in South Asia, 68% of respondents  in Francophone Africa, and 62% of respondents in Southeast Asia report feeling positively toward Russia. Public opinion of Russia remains positive in Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, India, Pakistan, and Vietnam. …
    Nelson Mandela often said that it was the Soviet Union’s support, both moral and material, that helped inspire South Africans to overthrow the Apartheid regime. Because of this, Russia is still viewed in a favorable light by many African countries. And once independence came for these countries, it was the Soviet Union that supported them, despite its own limited resources. Egypt’s Aswan Dam, completed in 1971, was designed by the Moscow-based Hydro Project Institute and financed in large part by the Soviet Union. The Bhilai Steel Plant, one of the first large infrastructure projects in newly independent India, was set up by the USSR in 1959.
    Other countries also benefited from the political and economic support provided by the former Soviet Union, including Ghana, Mali, Sudan, Angola, Benin, Ethiopia, Uganda, and Mozambique. On February 18, 2023, at the African Union Summit in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, the foreign minister of Uganda, Jeje Odongo, had this to say: “We were colonized and forgave those who colonized us. Now the colonizers are asking us to be enemies of Russia, who never colonized us. Is that fair? Not for us. Their enemies are their enemies. Our friends are our friends.”
  7. Like
    Probus reacted to sburke in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    well Steve at some point you'll have to adjust CM for women in combat.  You'll be so woke.  This woman is awesome.
    The Witch of Ukraine Reveals How 'Teeny-Weeny' American Weapons Are Beating Russians (yahoo.com)
  8. Like
    Probus reacted to chrisl in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Much of that $30B (and the many $Billions more committed) that will get recycled into the US economy was spent years ago (in the US) building stuff that we sent/are sending/will send.  Some of which was/is essentially retired and never going to be used again anyway - it's probably cheaper to ship it to Ukraine to get blown up and recycled there than to pay for disposal in the US. It's not like all the big defense companies just have parking lots and warehouses of materiel to send if we send truckloads of cash - we're sending it mostly from long since paid-for stock.  And then most of the rest of the military aid will get spent in the US, too, because where is the US going to buy high end US military equipment from other than the US MIC?  
    The main actual cash outlays that go overseas are humanitarian aid and some fraction of the shipping cost.
  9. Like
    Probus reacted to billbindc in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Why you are flat wrong:
    We have spent $30 billion on this war so far, much of which is actually recycled back into the American economy. That's equivalent to something like 4% of our defense budget to cripple the biggest threat to the global political order in half a century or more. This war is less than a year old  and Russia has already lost about half of the territory it gained.   It isn't our "foreign adventure" it is Russia's...which has repeatedly said Moldova and the Baltics are next. Which means NATO...and we certainly intend on defending it hell or high water and obviously should.
  10. Like
    Probus reacted to xXmushmanXx in Black Sea List of New Ukrainian Equipment   
    NLAW
    Baykaraktar TB2  Bayr
    General mix of western equipped ukrainian infantry.
    Weapons: M4 - SAW - Javelin     Vehicles:- Bradley - Bushmaster - M113
    Ukrainian manned mix of wester vehicles. Some yet to arrive;  https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-62002218

    https://war.ukraine.ua/articles/western-weapons-in-the-hands-of-the-ukrainian-military-change-the-war/


    Trust wikipedia to have a comprehensive list: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_military_aid_to_Ukraine_during_the_Russo-Ukrainian_War

    Many ukranians would be inexperienced on western weapons and with limited time to train set skill to Green?

    Bayraktar Drone

    British NLAW AntiTank

    M113 - modified MG turret

    Australian Bushmaster PMV

     
    Changes to Russian side I am unsure. I would think their military has not changed much. Increase number of infantry but decrese experience to green to reflect large number of Conscripts. Small number of Veteran units such as Wagner Group. Large amount of artillery.

    Change scenarios to reflect nature of the war. Trench warfare. Urban fighting. Mechanised asaults. Artillery.

    Add Ukranian Technicals made from Modified Pickup Trucks for light troop transport.

  11. Like
    Probus got a reaction from IdontknowhowtodoX in Cold War Holiday Tournament!!!   
    Jackal, you sound like Scotty from Star Trek.
    Scotty: "Two weeks! It can'na be done!"
    6 hours later...
    Scotty: "Warp drive restored!"
    Kirk: "Well done Scotty!  You're the best engineer in the fleet!"  
    Spock: "Fascinating..." 🤔
  12. Like
    Probus reacted to chuckdyke in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
  13. Like
    Probus got a reaction from jackal263 in Cold War Holiday Tournament!!!   
    Jackal, you sound like Scotty from Star Trek.
    Scotty: "Two weeks! It can'na be done!"
    6 hours later...
    Scotty: "Warp drive restored!"
    Kirk: "Well done Scotty!  You're the best engineer in the fleet!"  
    Spock: "Fascinating..." 🤔
  14. Like
    Probus reacted to ThathumanHayden in Black Sea List of New Ukrainian Equipment   
    I think we all are. It was about 9 months after the actual invasion before I started playing Black Sea again. It was too depressingly relevant for a while.
    I would love some CM exploration into the real conflict in the future, but I do still really like the idea of Black Sea's alt-history being expanded.
  15. Like
    Probus reacted to ThathumanHayden in Black Sea List of New Ukrainian Equipment   
    I also nominate the base T-84 as another nice unit to add to the Ukrainian side.

    What's not to love?
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/T-84
  16. Upvote
    Probus got a reaction from ThathumanHayden in Black Sea List of New Ukrainian Equipment   
    As we all know, BFC is going to have its hands full adding to the Equipment (TO&E) of the Ukrainian Army (and even to the Russian Army).  I think it would be fun to start listing that equipment here.  This can be anything from a handheld firearm, drone, or SAM to an Abrams Tank or F-16 Fighter. Please include as much information as you can and a picture of the item if you have one. e.g.
    Image: Name:  Model:  Version(s):  Description:  Weapon Subsystems: (if any) Ordinance: Date of introduction: (to the month)  Links to Equipment "Wiki": What other attributes should we list that would be helpful for BFC as a resource? I'll add 'em.
    If someone makes an error, please correct it diplomatically.
    This is going to be fun!  
    Ready, Steady, GO! o7
  17. Upvote
    Probus got a reaction from ThathumanHayden in Black Sea List of New Ukrainian Equipment   
    I'm really hoping this war will be history soon.  At that point BFC will be free to release a CMBS update.  Before then its dicey. 
    Having said that, personally, I would really like a platform that I could use to test out hypothetical scenarios based on current events (but again, that's just me).
  18. Like
    Probus reacted to ThathumanHayden in Black Sea List of New Ukrainian Equipment   
    I personally like the idea of Black Sea (not referring to another future title about the 2022 invasion) remaining in the fictional 2017 timeframe. Oplots, APS, and US forces in direct contact with (well-prepared and competent) Russian forces. In this regard, I am primarily interested in keeping a little bit of distance from the current invasion and the realistic developments of 2017. I think the game should stay historical fiction (again, not ruling out a future title).
    Among many pieces of Ukrainian and Russian kit, I nominate the BTR-3 as a very sexy unit.
    BTR-3U Has a 30mm autocannon, 30mm AGS grenade launcher, coax, and barrier ATGMs. Additionally, BTR-3E90 has a 90mm gun for fire support, and the BTR-3DA has improved weapons and presumably better optics. Give me some of these in mixed units, likely in the fictional context of greater Ukrainian procurement, and I'm happy.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BTR-3
  19. Like
    Probus reacted to Chibot Mk IX in Black Sea List of New Ukrainian Equipment   
    FV432 and YPR-765 
  20. Like
    Probus got a reaction from LuckyDog in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    As an aside, I started a new related thread that y'all might fun to add to:
     
  21. Like
    Probus got a reaction from Tux in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    As an aside, I started a new related thread that y'all might fun to add to:
     
  22. Like
    Probus reacted to MeatEtr in Cold War Holiday Tournament!!!   
    Yeah I often refer to my tank gunners as lumberjacks! 🤪

  23. Like
    Probus reacted to danfrodo in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    Good take on this.  I look at this thing as an intended rape victim fighting back against the rapist.  I don't really care how much violence is req'd to make the rapist stop especially considering the rapist could simply leave the situation and avoid being injured.  The intended victim might be the most pacifist, non-violent person on earth with lots of totally pacificist non-violent friends.  But none of those friends would say "oh don't betray our ideals and violently oppose the rape!".  They would all say to do whatever it takes to make him stop and if nearby would also use violence to make him stop.  Option B is they would say "sorry, but I am non violent.  Ouch, that sure looks like a bad situation, I really feel for you." 
    To me UKR war is that black & white.  Putin is trying to rape & enslave & rob Ukraine and we are the friends who are nearby.
  24. Like
    Probus reacted to rocketman in Cold War Holiday Tournament!!!   
    My suggestion is that after the first round in a tournament, the bottom 10-20% of players are cut. Likely those who didn't start or finish their games or those who got beaten badly and probably will have a hard time winning (harsh, I know). Having players, for one reason or another who don't do their part, remain for round two will just make another player angry. In my first round my oppo just played a handful of rounds. Annoying. Never was told why.
  25. Like
    Probus got a reaction from Haiduk in How Hot is Ukraine Gonna Get?   
    @Haidukis back. Woohoo! \o/
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