Probus

Merry Christmas everyone!  Thanks for such a civil discussion.

Merry Christmas gents 

Merry Xmas and a Happy New Year to all!

Merry Christmas.

They've just changed to the Gregorian Calendar for Christmas, so for most Ukrainians it IS the same as for us.

Merry Christmas all! Slava Ukraine!

Merry Christmas everyone!  Thanks for such a civil discussion.

Merry Christmas everyone!  Thanks for such a civil discussion.

No, Hamas killed those children. IDF was just the tool they used. They knew full well what would happen.

Totally agree with those comments.  Regrettably some of us have a schedule that is erratic so while one may have a couple weeks to play full -time, then it may be necessary to travel with no game system or internet for weeks.  For that reason, I have sadly been having to avoid tournies. 
 

I was thinking same thing. I have been lucky having drawn nine different opponents across three tournaments who have returned turns and played out the games to the end.  But I feel real bad for others who are getting hosed by no shows or quitters.
For others who

Dang! I'm fighting in every direction at the same time!  I can't tell if I'm surrounded or if I'm surrounding the enemy!  

There's plentiful media material of innocent Israeli civilians murdered by Palestinians on October 7th as well.
You're holding Israel to a vastly different standard, one which calls into question every single Israeli victim whose demise isn't documented in perverse detail for all and sundry to view online.
If we start holding Palestinian deaths to the same standards, you'd need detailed video documentation for 18,000 deaths to prove that they indeed occurred and weren't Hamas members.

I did see those vehicles lower down when I was reading. They look like they were the ones tore up by a bulldozer.
That's horrible and an attempted cover up makes it worse.  I want to hear what the IDF has to say for itself.  War is bad but attacking doctors on purpose... That's just horrible. Why??? And I just don't see the motive.  What could possibly cause them to do that?  That makes Israel look like Hamas, the ones they are supposed to be fighting against.

I am not sure that Russian force generation was the defining factor.  Those hastily trained troops should not have been able to hold those lines with the force density we saw.  We are talking conscripts facing US C4ISR and modern weaponry.  Standard doctrine says it takes about a full battalion - around 1000 troops to hold a km.  That is enough for solid forward density, depth, a reserve, support and some sort of troop rotations.
 Even with minefields.  RA was doing it with 300 troops (from the Russi report from Sep).  Tossing away rotations -because Russia- that means they had about a company per km with maybe a bit of depth and no reserves.  Very limited support.  Basically 150 guys with drones and ATGMs.  A few tanks to pull up for sniping. And AH.  With conscripts?!  While being hammered by western modern artillery, deep strike and UAS.  About the only thing the RA had was EW and that was not airtight.
So yes, the RA was able to keep up with losses.  But the very low density of the original requirement simply does not compute.  If I only need to replace 300 per km at pace, the bar is way lower than it used to be.  Like at Kyiv, the UA likely had ridiculous force ratio advantages…and still could not break that line.  If 300 mobiks are all that is needed to hold a mine belt something has fundamentally changed.  Finally this wasn’t one attack.  They did it for the entire summer.   We are talking 800km of frontage.  We know their vehicle fleets are badly depleted.  Artillery is struggling.  C4ISR must have improved - this matches observations.  And yet they held.  
We can’t even blame the UA.  They are about as highly trained and equipped as we could make em.  They held off the RA and collapsed last year with less.  So I still do not know what is it.  UAS + mines + standoff weapons?  C4ISR integration.  Or maybe as you say, it was a far closer run race than we saw.  

@ALBY and I just played a really fun scenario he came up with that hones your skills at indirect fire and the use of spotters and drones in CMBS.  We each had mechanized forces (which included only 1 tank) and 7 drones each.  Reinforcements came in at each 5 minute mark that gave you more and more capability.  It would really make a good training or tournament game.

The closest thing I can think of is, without any units selected, click on each revealed enemy unit icon to see which of your units can visibly see the vehicle, squad, or one of their individual infantrymen. Apart from that, I don't believe there's anything close to a counter which tells us precisely how many contacts any of our units are currently under, whether it has currently broken out into gunfire or is just plain full visual contact.

Being weaker doesn't mean that you're the good guy.
Ukraine is absolutely the "good guy" in the war: it's a sovereign, internationally recognised, democratic state invaded without provocation.
Palestine... frankly, at this time Israel is right: Palestine doesn't exist. A fundamental requirement for being recognised as a state is your state's ability to exercise control over its territory. The PA clearly does not control Gaza, though laying claim to it as part of the Palestinian state.
And if they do claim that they're in control of what goes on in Gaza, well, that'd mean assuming full responsibility for the October 7th massacres. Whatever the case, international law does permit an offended party entering the territory of the offending party under arms to do what is necessary to guarantee their future safety, so I disagree with calling the invasion of Gaza illegal.

"Exist" in this case.

I think infantry, terrain, and fortifications still very much matter. It is quite possible none of them will be quite the SAME going forward, but I don't think they are going away. They all seem to matter rather a lot around Avdivka.
See below.
Most of this response is rhetorical, but i am absolutely convinced that if Ukraine could put the power out in Moscow for a month this winter it make a large difference in this war. NATO has also done a ton of hemming and hawing on a vast number of issues that Ukraine has every right to angry about, since they have cost Ukrainian lives. The endless delay in releasing the cluster munitions we have released, and a number of types of them that we still haven't being example A. The endless back and forth about ATACMs, and then only giving them ten, and, and, and....
We vastly overestimated our ability to to land this thing on the exact glide path we (wrongly) seem to prefer, and it seems to be in danger of imploding because of it. When Ukraine was still standing in May 2022 we should have committed to WINNING this thing, not "improving our negotiating position. 

C’mon, we did the terrorism thing for the last 20 years.  In fact what the IDF is doing is likely to make things worse, not better.  Hamas knew damned well the reaction it was going to get.  It went medieval to get exactly that.  It did it for a reason.  I am mulling over what to call this “winning by losing” strategy but it is working.  Does anyone think Hamas cares about the Palestinian civilians.  In fact for them the more human suffering the better.
AQ tried the same thing in 01.  ISIL again in ‘14(ish).  Punitive expeditions do not work in the modern era.  No one has demonstrated that shooting their way out of an insurgency is even possible.  Hamas needed a deliberate campaign of isolation and precise killing before 7 Oct.  They needed one after.  Breaking the international system is a Hamas goal because they feel abandoned by it.  Iran wants the system to fail so they can get their nukes and move up the regional pecking order.  So how in gods name is Israel helping them do it make any sense?

I agree with everything in your post, but you are only looking at part of what maintains the international system. If the Oct 7th attack is seen to have been a long term success for Hamas, every unhappy group on the planet is going to take note. What will the reaction be when some bunch of homicidal idiots/fanatics with a "cause"  goes Oct 7th on cruise ship somewhere? The only good outcome here was for the Israelis not to get caught asleep at the switch. I am just trying to point out that there is more than one kind of very negative lesson to be drawn here. And yes all the choices are bad, it doesn't mean some of them are not worse.

@The_Capt you are much, much more knowledgeable about the legalities of war than I am, but does the Geneva Convention even apply to this conflict?  According to what I'm hearing, it's ok for Hamas to use any methods available to them but for the IDF, it's a warcrime to:
Flood Hamas' tunnels. Bomb buildings with Hamas fighters. Level a city that produces vicious terrorists by the 1000s. Attack sites launching rockets into Israel. On and on... If you were the IDF general in charge of combat operations in Gaza what would you do? Risk warcrime accusations after the war or throw up your hands and say "I give up! - Cease fire"?
I don't think you can't put UN observers in there. That is just dangerous and counter productive.  Hamas, for one, would just kill or take them hostage whenever the situation presents itself.  And would the IDF have to ask UN permission each time they shoot?
I have no problem with folks disagreeing with some of the IDF's methods, it's a war, but they have to give alternative options for the IDF or it's all just pie in the sky.  Wouldn't you agree or am I completely off base?

Well full points for the attempt but in the end an Investigation will be required.  Was it a specific unit or formation where the civilian deaths mostly occurred?  When were most civilians killed, air strikes or ground action?  Who was in command?  How was release authority handled?  What was the target info provided to shooters.  What was the collateral damage estimate?  How did that estimate compare to real losses.  How was collateral damage calculated?  How was military necessity calculated?  What were the ROEs?  Who was running the targeteering (matching munitions to targets)?  What were the civilians told and how?  Did they ever target an area they said they would not/how tight were the control lines?  How heavy were the strikes and on what cross section of targets? 
If the IDF is as clean as new driven snow they would open the books and clear the air.  They would likely run a parallel investigation of their own and we could all argue in the end.  My money is that there will never be an investigation.  Unless we see something truly horrific.  The damage is largely done because the IDF look like they are playing cover up while blasting block by block.  This may be unfair because the court of public opinion is not supposed to rule…but here we are.
My blunt assessment is that Israel is losing this thing.  They are playing directly into the hands of Hamas and their backers.  Iran is laughing its @ss off as any deals between Saudi Arabia and Israel are very likely dead.  Israel is heading towards outcast status and isolation.  The US as champion of a rules-based order is taking a royal beating. Russia and China will be dining out on this for years.  And meanwhile we are getting soft on Ukraine.  And the human tragedy in Gaza is just getting warmed up.
Final note:  how on earth does Egypt get let off the hook in all this?  Why have they not been called out for keeping 2 million Palestinians trapped in a shrinking box in Gaza?  

There's an awful lot of wiggle room in that word "damaged" - could be nothing more than a broken window. For every building destroyed there's probably dozens of buildings damaged.