fry30

what you don't?  Our bathroom says "wife only" with an arrow pointing to the backyard door for the "men's room".  Though I gotta say our tomatoes do pretty well.  😀

Unlurking from the shadows to add something. This looks to be a Lvkv 90C ( The AA variant) at 00:46 it looks to be a radar dome ontop of the turret.
From what I can find 3 Lvkv 90A was uppgraded to the Ceasar standard (C-version) and I guess all of them where given to Ukraine.
Was looking at other pictures to see if it could maybe be a Norwegian one with a kongsberg remote weapon station. But it looks more like a barrel. To bad quality on the video to be 100 % sure. (Norway is talking about sending some of their Cv90 aswell.)
Starts lurking again. // Jarran

Looks like TOS-1A, not tank.

Article in English about preliminary researching of ballistic missile parts (tail part of one of missiles remained in quite large fragments), which has struck Kharkiv several days ago. It is similar to Iskander-M, but has some differences. Diameter is on 10 mm more, assembling quality is much worse, erased factory mrks on many parts, no EW system, etc. But to make final conclusion that this is N.Korean missile need to conduct additioanal researhes
  https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2024/01/6/7436148/

But I agree with Zeliban. 
Evil Axis Russia - N.Korea - Iran with proxies backed by China is growing own strength month by month, arming each other and igniting conflicts, threating to West sensitive areas (Gaza, Red Sea)
Russia expanded own "Shadow Axis" - BRICS, several days ago Egypt, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Iran, Ethiopia joined to this organisation, so BRICS countries now control 45 % of world oil 
US claimed: N.Korea will regret if hands over ballistic missiles to Russia
N. Korea: handed over
US: we will put personal sanctions on persons, responsible for this and will call UNSC meeting to blame this
UK: This is a victory! We forced Russia to walk with outstrached hand! They beg missiles in N,Korea and Iran!
Ukraine: soooo, but how it help us? N.Korea gave missile to Russia "stretched hand". Can we get at last ATACAMS, BGM-109 and Taurus?
West: this may cause escalation.Maybe will be better if we help you to produce 155 mm shells? Through the year or two...
N.Korea: shelled S.Korea territory with artilelry
Evil Axis (chorus): Yes, we are fu...g nuts. And what will you do to us?
West: sinking in 1000 round tables and deep concernings  
Alas, in situations "tough times demand tough solutions" liberal democracy is too slow in comparison with authocraties and dictatorships
 
 

Hopefully we'll get another person of reason and sound judgement who also thinks earth is 6000 years, amongst the many wise beliefs of mike johnston.  But maybe we'll get an improvement as the current speaker is somewhat flawed as he thinks the earth is round and goes around the sun.  
American taliban.  

Ah...the most pernicious Russian agitprop of all. 
A give that 9.9 on the Solovyov scale, at least.  

I'm strongly leaning towards the latter. He seems mightily invested in pushing the "bow down before the might of the unstoppable Russian bear" line.

You are clearly either delusional or this is just a deliberate campaign of mis- information - I'll be blocking you going forwards .

🤣  yep any day now!

Ok so let's end all this horsesh#t.  The great thing about the US is that they put everything out to the public.  No other nation on earth is as transparent.  So here is what Miller actually said:
https://www.state.gov/briefings/department-press-briefing-january-4-2024/
First as to "no more money"
"QUESTION: Thank you. Let’s discuss Ukraine a little bit. How long will the latest package that you guys have sent already in December will give operations until they run out of funding again?
MR MILLER: I will let Ukraine speak to that because that pertains to – and my colleagues at the Pentagon may have some additional insight to offer on this. But ultimately, that’s a question to Ukraine to speak to because it goes to their rate of expenditure and other really military questions.
But I will say that we do need Congress to act. We are out of funding here. We know that we need to continue to support Ukraine. They need – they rely on this assistance. They rely on it to continue to fight what is a brutal Russian assault that continues, even over the – that continues every day. And so it’s important for Congress to act to continue to fund this democracy that is continuing to defend itself."
That is all about pushing Congress to act.  Inside DC baseball, not a US intent to cut off all funding.
As to current state of the war:
"QUESTION: And would you say that, given the latest developments, that the war is turning in Russia’s favor?
MR MILLER: No, I wouldn’t say that at all. I think people forget oftentimes the actual stakes of this war and what Vladimir Putin’s actual goal was, and what Ukraine has actually achieved and what it continues to achieve. Remember that Putin launched this as a war of total conquest where he wanted to take over Ukraine. He wanted to throw the government out of power. He wanted to subsume Ukraine inside Russia. Not only was Ukraine able to prevent that from happening, which everyone sort of takes for granted now but it was very not – it was very much not a settled question at the start of this war – they have managed to retake around half of the territory that Russia seized in the opening weeks of the war.
And even in the past few weeks, they continue to make battlefield gains. Remember the – over the last summer we were talking about the difficulty when Russia pulled out of the Black Sea Grain Initiative, and it looked like Ukraine wasn’t going to be able to continue to export grain. Well, because of advances that Ukraine made to open a Black Sea lane and expel the Russian fleet from certain parts of the Black Sea, they are now able to continue to export grain, which is critical to their economy.
So there are going to be battlefield developments back and forth, where you see each side gaining or losing territory. But when you look at the ultimate stakes of this war, it’s quite clear that Ukraine is going to exit this war independent, strong, with an improved economy, and looking west when what Russia wanted at the outset was not just a Ukraine that was looking east but Ukraine that was actually part of Russia."
Boy this sounds familiar...because some on this thread have been saying it all along.
And as to the statement that has some people running around like the panicky idiot in a bad plane crash movie:
"QUESTION: As long as it takes?
MR MILLER: As long as it takes. That does not mean that we are going to continue to support them at the same level of military funding that we did in 2022 and 2023. We don’t think that should be necessary because the goal is to ultimately transition Ukraine – to use the language that you repeated back – to stand on its own feet and to help Ukraine build its own industrial base and its own military industrial base so it can both finance and build and acquire munitions on its own. But we are not there yet, and that is why it is so critical that Congress pass the supplemental funding bill, because we are not yet at the point where Ukraine can defend itself just based on its own. And it’s why that it continues to be important for Congress to support Ukraine and continues to be important for our European allies and others throughout the world to support Ukraine."
From a State Dept talking head no less.
Oh, ya that totally says that "Ukraine is totally cut off and will have to build its own tanks from here on out."  You know we should totally freak out now and point to every Russian leg twitch as a major victory, while screaming "Ukraine is doomed!!" From the heights of the thread.
So "yes" I am saying the US will backstop a Ukrainian MIC as it plans for a transition away from tactical handouts to long term strategic sustainment...just like they did in South Korea.  But hey you wanna be "soundbite panic guy" on the thread, go right ahead.  
 

This.
And this.  Just whose side are you on?
Oh, wait I know this dance.  You are going to throw around Russian propaganda lines, anti-western sentiments, and general doom and gloom until Steve gets irritated.  Then you will post walls of translated useful stuff to take the heat off...wait a bit, and come back around for another pass.  You realize that is exactly the same Russia "useful idiot" tactic?
So just to avoid all that for what must be the 5th or 6th time - your position in a nutshell:
- All is lost.  Ukraine is losing its will to fight and will never get it back.  In fact they are going to gleefully switch sides after this war.
- Russia is unstoppable and will roll on Poland and the Baltics once they are done with Ukraine.  With Ukrainian Divisions riding at the forefront.  And now you admire them for this...along with NK.
- The US and West are weak and scared.  Our support is clearly plummeting (and with friends like you...) because we are not hopping too with another $100B by 4 Jan and several divisions of shiny new tanks, that will be turned into scrap metal in a few months anyway...because Ukrainian will etc (gets a little blurry here.)
I was willing to write off the first few times as to war weariness but you are spending far too much effort and energy right now for someone who is burned out.
So...whose side are you on exactly? 

And meet Mr Cluster, Mr FPV drone, Mr Mortar, Mr MG and sniper fire for 2.5kms walking speed? Even the russian commanders were able to figure out thats not gonna work, Im sure they are aware tanks go boom when hit by drones but driving is the only way to cover the distance. Not to mention, you need heavy support to take dug in troops behind several obstacles, AP/AT mine belts and with a massive height advantage. And they did.
Lets call it Avdiivka success then, much like Bakhmut was such a success, It bled the russians dry! Lets meet in Bakhmut and celebrate, Im sure Putin is furious after losing all those convicts.
Did it not completely stop the UA offensive which was supposed to go on through the winter, the gains that are currently being recaptured by russian forces, executing those who are left to hold the lines in the south?
As much as people here expected hundreds of armored vehicles to go and take 2.5 km of land the day before russian advance started, why should I believe you know a similar assault is not coming next month to close the last 1.5km?
Literally the same comments with Bakhmut about a year ago
I think you are misunderstanding me. I said, as a russian commander, how would you take this poisiton? There are no videos of UA soldiers being hit by FPVs on top of the heap that I know of, yet it is a prime location to neutralize. Im sure the russians tried, now how are you taking it? By walking? Try that in CM, even without drones hunting everthing in the unprotected greyzone.
Dont disagree, drones can prove decisive. But what I am talking about here is and being called defeatist for, is an MIC that the US "wants" to build to cover the lack of support from now on. IFVs, SAM, Engeneering, and so on, will not be buildable by UA within 1-2 years in a scale to not only cover losses but also grow at the same rate as russian military in that time.
There are many reasons why this wont happen, one of which are the US funds for that, currently at 0$ which may not be able to cover massive underground factories to cope with the highest losses since? WW2? 

As opposed to infantry in IFVs getting shelacked kms out?  How many times do we need to see this before we realize we need better ideas?  Frankly moving over open ground on foot look and feels like a better way to go. 
Are we talking about this Avdiivka crisis?

The one where as of yesterday afternoon after losing hundreds of vehicles the RA is poised to crush UA defence...on the same damn lines it has been sitting on for weeks?
This, after endless videos of Russian soldiers getting grenade dropped and freakin chased around trees.  Your deduction after all that is "Gee we really need more tanks and IFVs"?  We need unmanned systems that are resistant to jamming...another thing a Ukrainian defence industry could master.
As opposed to what?  Several thousand armored vehicles coming from German factories in the next 1-2 years?  So Ukraine can move by inches.  Talk about "staying grounded".  We had better figure out a swarm of UAS and fast because it is likely the only way to break this deadlock.
I have no problem in sustaining the conventional suite that the UA has to hold the lines but doubling-down on failures that the Ukrainian CHOD has openly declared - namely that this war is freezing for reasons other than "enough tanks"- is really dumb at this point in the war.

How else would they have been able to take the heap and critically threaten the only way in and out of Avdiivka, that was serious enough to switch from "counter-offensive through winter" to "lets redeploy it all to stop russian advances"?
With infantry running over open ground? 
There were 100% a bunch of jammers up there too, so drones are basically out in precision attacks on entranched positions. 
Go around it? 
The same dilemma exists for the UA and russia. Just russia was able to capture this position, somehow with useless tanks, which essentially ended UAs offensive indefinetely.
Its nice talking about PGM and all that fancy AI drone swarm stuff. Please stay grounded with reality of what the UA has and what it doesnt and what countries in the EU could possibly supply within 1-2 years, when stuff like Taurus is off limits. I dont expect a German drone factory supplying a million suicide drones, do you? Without US support, what is going to defend the UA drone factory when all SAM systems are already insufficient to cover not even the frontline but simply the back of the country?
Denouncing me for 'defeatism', when half the forum here was still in the rosy bubble saying the offensive will break through any day now and republicans are just bluffing.
I remember also being talked to like that when criticising the "recon in force" of driving 15 bradleys (was that 20% of all stock at the time?) Into the same minefield.

More on this here => 
 
Ignore the click-baity title of the vid. It's a reasonably informative take. According to this guy the problems with the delivery are caused by
1. Currency. The agreement was that India would pay half with Chinese yuan and half with the UAE dirham for the Russian oil. The Indian Govt. was reluctant to use yuan, and now the UAE banks are reluctant to provide dirham because they are concerned that the deals are in breach with of the oil price sanction and they don't want to face secondary sanctions  
2. Russia has increased prices of its oil to above $60 a barrel while Iraq has reduced its price to around the same. Therefore for India, it's less risky to buy the Iraqi oil
3. Clampdown on sanctions. Some of the ships have cargoes that are above the $60 a barrel sanction cost and the Indian ports 
Seems a reasonably solid explanation and he does by and large provide sources. Russia rather desperately needs this money. Their economy is under considerable strain and their rainy day fund won't last forever. Income down, expenditure up and diminishing reserves can't last forever or even very long in a war of this intensity. Especially if they splurge 100s of millions of dollars in missiles on non-military targets. That said, economies are resilient and these conditions can take years and years to have a decisive impact.
This is obviously a land-centric wargaming forum and that's what we are mainly interested in but the economic stuff is really, really important. 

Thanks all for the S-300 answers. Yes, it was really a question.

Brian Berletic / Tony Carlucci is a well-known propagandist and conspiracy theorist who has been blogging about geopolitics for years.
On X he closes shoulders with some of the most vile Moscowite "journos" thst bring the truth about the "Western world conspiracy" etc. 
His coverage of Syria was especially vile, blaming the civilian victims of Russian and Syrian warcrimes on the USA.
Completely ignorable individual.

Haiduk, don't bother yourself to answering on his comments, he is like an author of that video. Just take a look on his posts in other topics:
 

Happy New Year my friends! Slava Ukraine!🇺🇦

Happy New Year everyone, the best to you, your family, and all those you care for.
I've prognosticated enough for this year and next year. Let's see how things turn out. 

It's not. HE rounds don't get converted to Smoke in real life. And there *should* be enough fuzes for all the rounds, regardless of what types. We usually had extra fuzes. I think this is on the list of things to fix somewhere. I'll try to search for it.
Dave

The IDF is pretty much doing what it likes right now - do you care much ?  - and you expect the West to condemn some minor revenge attacks  by Ukraine on Russia ? Unless said attacks threaten somehow the stability of the  relationship between the West and  Russia/China  I can't see anyone caring much at all . Not sure why some folks on this board think the Rubicon has somehow been crossed .

Rotterdam?

Am I the only one who gets really confused when the dans start talking to each other? 

Am I the only one who gets really confused when the dans start talking to each other?